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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
- Start date
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WhateverItTakes
Banned
I mean them having the most seats of anyone out of the parties, not outright. Unless I'm reading the YouGov predictor wrong?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That would be a plurality, not a majority.
SporeCrawler
Member
i think the dementia tax thing was really the biggest blow, even though that happened before the labour surge. if you think about it tory support is with the elderly and if they swing towards labour or lib dem or just dont show up a lot of the constituencies where the majority is not as stable may swing to labour, if the younger votes actually show up
Audioboxer
Member
Get your free suncream to protect you in the nuclear wasteland
itsbenoclock
Member
Focusing on Trident as a key issue just days before the election seems futile; there aren't enough warmongering nutjobs to go around to boost a Tory vote surely?
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
I'm almost convinced that we're an island populated entirely by retired colonels still bitter over the loss of Rhodesia
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
Happens, I hope so I did not vote in the last general election but will be turning up to this one.
I intend to vote LAB but I am mindful there are a lot of ppl who live here that work in the city and I expect them to vote CON, I suppose 10k could be swung especially if the smaller parties employed tactical voting.
Why don't left leaning parties do this?
It's a meritocracy after all . . .
Get your free suncream to protect you in the nuclear wasteland
did they photoshop Steve buscemis face into there?
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
lmao
also
I am absolutely sure some of these were only along to get Corbyn to stumble on the nuke question. Ah well whats done is done.
But if we don't use Trident how are we going to get our fishing waters back from the EU and stop migrant boats coming across the channel?
Little Old Man
Member
The whole point of the election is insurance for the Conservative party against Brexit rammifcations. They will now have three years to save themselves after 2019, rather than just one, before facing the polls again.
The manifesto staying utterly vague on what Brexit will mean, the line of 'no deal is better than a bad deal' (which implicitly is a type of deal, just not formalised between the UK and the EU), and the attempt to gain a 100+ majority were all the tactics to cover themselves, all give a rubber stamped mandate with vague and wishy-washy goals to meet to 'prove' to the public that they made a success of it come 2022.
There's a reason (electorally, not just because there isn't a formal plan to negotiate) that Tory politicians won't give clear answers to the question "what does a successful/bad Brexit look like?". When things go south with the brinksmanship form of negotiations there are no specifics in any quotes, interviews, clips, or soundbites to crucify the party on, because there are no quantifiable objectives that they themselves have set out.
But 300000000000 gigzillion savings p/a?
Audioboxer
Member
Man, someone mentioned the choose your fighter image earlier, but it is pretty hilarious
We might not win an election, but let's win the meme wars.
It's just to play into the "Corbyn is a national security threat". Propaganda around fear of terrorism, when current terrorism issues we face are on the ground and intelligence based. Not nuclear.
We might not win an election, but let's win the meme wars.
It's just to play into the "Corbyn is a national security threat". Propaganda around fear of terrorism, when current terrorism issues we face are on the ground and intelligence based. Not nuclear.
Ravensmash
Member
Lets be honest, if he did come out and say that then it'd get spun as him being a flip-flopping war monger.
Little Old Man
Member
Man, someone mentioned the choose your fighter image earlier, but it is pretty hilarious
We might not win an election, but let's win the meme wars.
War never changes
AuthenticM
Member
What are the odds Labour wins?
Coriolanus
Banned
Depends on how you define labour winning.
Majority? Not happening
Plurality? Extremely unlikely
Embarrasses May? Decent
For what it's worth, I live in the longest running bellwether seat in the UK - you win here, you win the election - and I think there's next to no chance of Labour winning here.
In fact our entire county is blue and I can't see that changing. No major Labour players have visited. That's 17 seats, many of which swing, that they're basically writing off.
And 16 of the 17 voted for Brexit, some very heavily.
In fact our entire county is blue and I can't see that changing. No major Labour players have visited. That's 17 seats, many of which swing, that they're basically writing off.
And 16 of the 17 voted for Brexit, some very heavily.
Good news on voting intention figures amongst 18-24 year olds. I'm 21 myself and I've noticed a lot more buzz about the election this year than in 2015. I know a lot of people around my age who didn't vote in the referendum and regret it, hopefully that regret will galvanise them this time around.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Dartford?
Correct!
Audioboxer
Member
*Possible Nuke area detected* * button pushing excitement intensifies*
Theonik
Member
Too near London. Pls no nuke.
Dorsal Axe
Member
Yeah, I've noticed a lot more interest too. Lots of people who weren't interested in politics before now expressing a desire to vote. I know lots of younger people who couldn't vote before who are very keen to take their chance now that they can.
2015 was a boring election. Miliband wasn't particularly inspiring, and all the talk of another hung parliament and coalition probably contributed to voter apathy (heard a lot of "what's the point?" around that time)
The choices are starker than anything we've experienced in our lifetimes. I fully expect youth turnout to be higher than the last election. Whether it can actually hit the magic number to actually make a difference is more uncertain though.
Well it's a non-zero amount, but really that's not going to happen. A good result for Labour is keeping the Tory majority to under 30. A great result would be status quo, while the dream would be a hung parliament.
Housing prices might finally drop to sensible levels though.
Audioboxer
Member
"Sorry, we cannot be held accountable for the massive casualties. Big Jezz is a lunatic".
Also
I mean aye, it's a shitty bit of vandalism, but right on Twitter to go "fuck the left!/fuck protestors!" is probably going to get you meme'd.
It was probably a Lib Dem voter like Huw anyway.
Theonik
Member
But it probably affects my daily train to Canon Street.
Labour can win if people vote for them!
Huw_Dawson
Member
A Guardian journo recons the LDs will swing St Albans. So that's +1 to us..
This is going to be a knife-edge result if Yougov are right. If they are wrong, Labour voters are going to be *crushed*.
Again, the ideal scenario is that Ipsos Mori and Yougov are right, there has been a massive uptick in the Labour-voting young, and that is sufficient to hold back the Tories and beat them in enough seats to block a Tory/DUP pact.
Oh, and that Lab voting young actually tactically votes LD in LD/Con marginals.
Originally we all assumed that the UKIP bloc would swing 100% Tory this election. I am beginning to wonder if that is true. If a good chunk of the kipper vote, only ever voting for UKIP for eurosceptic reasons, swings Labour, this entire election is turned on its head.
This is going to be a knife-edge result if Yougov are right. If they are wrong, Labour voters are going to be *crushed*.
Again, the ideal scenario is that Ipsos Mori and Yougov are right, there has been a massive uptick in the Labour-voting young, and that is sufficient to hold back the Tories and beat them in enough seats to block a Tory/DUP pact.
Oh, and that Lab voting young actually tactically votes LD in LD/Con marginals.
Originally we all assumed that the UKIP bloc would swing 100% Tory this election. I am beginning to wonder if that is true. If a good chunk of the kipper vote, only ever voting for UKIP for eurosceptic reasons, swings Labour, this entire election is turned on its head.
Theonik
Member
I think Labour's left has a better Brexit record even though they supported it for different reasons historically.
Many Kippers were ex-labour trying to protest vote the referendum into happening.
Hell I know an ex-LD brexiteer that voted UKIP for the referendum to happen.
Perhaps the assumption of all those voters going CON was false to begin with.
Many Kippers were ex-labour trying to protest vote the referendum into happening.
Hell I know an ex-LD brexiteer that voted UKIP for the referendum to happen.
Perhaps the assumption of all those voters going CON was false to begin with.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Opinium/Observer poll:
Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 37% (+2)
Lib Dems 6% (-1)
Ukip 5% (nc)
Opinium is pretty mid-range as far as pollsters go. They show figures most like the average. 6 points is right on the cusp of hung parliament - either very slim Conservative majority or Conservatives propped up by DUP.
EDIT: N.B. these numbers do not include any debate impacts.
Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 37% (+2)
Lib Dems 6% (-1)
Ukip 5% (nc)
Opinium is pretty mid-range as far as pollsters go. They show figures most like the average. 6 points is right on the cusp of hung parliament - either very slim Conservative majority or Conservatives propped up by DUP.
EDIT: N.B. these numbers do not include any debate impacts.
voodoowoolf
Neo Member
My heart dropped when the woman with partial sight and mental health problems asked questions. May's reply just reminds me that in this country a huge amount of people just don't care unless it's about nukes or low taxes. I'm seriously considering doing my MA and getting out of here ASAP.
PJV3
Member
lmao
also
They could redo the old racist Tory slogan.
If you want to nuke a neighbour, don't vote libdem or labour.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
If we can't get significant 18-24 year old turnout on this manifesto, I'll be so deeply disappointed. I mean, I sort of expect it to be that way, but honestly, that generation is never going to see an offer that good in decades, I would think. If you won't turn up for that, what will you turn up for?
I'm voting and have friends that have never voted now voting
HazySaiyan
Banned
It's not mental at all, it's exactly what you should expect from the Tories
Theonik
Member
Tbh, I've seen people from that slant also like the CON proposition on the premise of 'Fuck the Old' alone. It's a sad state of affairs where many young people would vote to punish the old over their own benefit.
One day you'll be old too then you'll be sorry! By contrast the chances one will be a millionaire severely affected by tax hikes is significantly slimmer.
travisbickle
Member
"Sorry, we cannot be held accountable for the massive casualties. Big Jezz is a lunatic".
Also
I mean aye, it's a shitty bit of vandalism, but right on Twitter to go "fuck the left!/fuck protestors!" is probably going to get you meme'd.
It was probably a Lib Dem voter like Huw anyway.
Posting that picture on his own fucking Twitter! That's Alan Partridge level dumb.
No, that's what you get when you vote Tory. It's not a secret.
Oh I know it's their platform of bogus trickle down economics, but when the polls have narrowed this much; why the fuck would they say it out loud?
HazySaiyan
Banned
Cause it won't affect them all that much. The country is full of Temporarily Embarassed Millionaires so they don't give a shit.
Thing is, at the start of this campaign the Conservatives were looking to take themselves into Labour territory and somehow become the party of the working class. Are they abandoning that strategy out of panic now? I just can't fathom a way this works out for them, other than maybe assuring the ruling classes that the Conservatives will still make life easy for them; no matter what shit happens during Brexit.
It's Reyn Time!
Member
No, they said they'd be the party of working people, like they've been saying for years while shafting their pay and their rights. What Tories say and what they do are almost exclusively in direct opposition of each other.
Wrestlemania
Banned
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 37% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 30 - 31 May)
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 37% (+2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 30 - 31 May)
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