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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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satriales

Member
Thing is, at the start of this campaign the Conservatives were looking to take themselves into Labour territory and somehow become the party of the working class. Are they abandoning that strategy out of panic now? I just can't fathom a way this works out for them, other than maybe assuring the ruling classes that the Conservatives will still make life easy for them; no matter what shit happens during Brexit.

I think when they use the phrase "ordinary working families" that's actually code for the super rich, they're aren't talking about people on low incomes.
 

Beefy

Member
"Sorry, we cannot be held accountable for the massive casualties. Big Jezz is a lunatic".

Also

39aSop6.png


I mean aye, it's a shitty bit of vandalism, but right on Twitter to go "fuck the left!/fuck protestors!" is probably going to get you meme'd.

It was probably a Lib Dem voter like Huw anyway.

Something gives me idea they don't like him where he is running...


Ah, he deserves it:
What a cunt
 

Spaghetti

Member
The country is full of Temporarily Embarassed Millionaires so they don't give a shit.
I dunno if that's the case. There are definitely some, but Labour's bounce can be attributed to people waking up to how bad things are getting domestically. If it gets enough traction in the next week, I can see this seriously affecting the chance of the Conservatives gaining the seats they want in Labour heartland/marginals.

If enough eyes get on the issue, I can see plenty of people balking at the idea of voting Blue. Basically what I'm saying is, this might be the issue that fucks the Conservatives massively on June 8th if it picks up enough steam.

No, they said they'd be the party of working people, like they've been saying for years while shafting their pay and their rights. What Tories say and what they do are almost exclusively in direct opposition of each other.
I mean, yes, they were obviously not going to go through with it; but the point is they've thrown away any semblance of their early strategy to capture votes. They're on the back foot, even if the poll numbers are still quite stubborn.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Something gives me idea they don't like him where he is running...



Ah, he deserves it:
What a cunt

At this point I'd be surprised if you can put a Tory MP through that site and get a decent outcome. There might be some, but most you'll probably be rolling your eyes for days.
 

Spaghetti

Member
At this point I'd be surprised if you can put a Tory MP through that site and get a decent outcome. There might be some, but most you'll probably be rolling your eyes for days.
So, I have a friend who works for the Conservatives and one of their parents is a now-former MP.

I looked them up on theyworkforyou, naively thinking they might be fairly moderate (as I believe my friend is... hopefully). NOPE.

Hope I never have to meet their parent(s), because I don't know how I'll be able to contain myself from kicking off against someone who voted for the bedroom tax; which has directly and very negatively affected people close to me.
 

Audioboxer

Member
So, I have a friend who works for the Conservatives and one of their parents is a now-former MP.

I looked them up on theyworkforyou, naively thinking they might be fairly moderate (as I believe my friend is... hopefully). NOPE.

Hope I never have to meet their parent(s), because I don't know how I'll be able to contain myself from kicking off against someone who voted for the bedroom tax; which has directly and very negatively affected people close to me.

I guess you could make an argument some of it will just be towing the party line. However, if you're generally a decent person and find yourself constantly signing off on bullshit votes because "it's your job/party" it's maybe time to question the political party you're working with.

There's always going to be some clashes/diversity in beliefs, but if you're falling under "consistently votes against" when it's basic social issues then you can't just hide behind "yo I'm a decent person and friend when our families go out for a meal".
 

Spaghetti

Member
I guess you could make an argument some of it will just be towing the party line. However, if you're generally a decent person and find yourself constantly signing off on bullshit votes because "it's your job/party" it's maybe time to question the political party you're working with.

There's always going to be some clashes/diversity in beliefs, but if you're falling under "consistently votes against" when it's basic social issues then you can't just hide behind "yo I'm a decent person and friend when our families go out for a meal".
When I think about it, a lot of the party line issues are based in boilerplate Conservative values. If they believe in them enough to work for the party or stand as an MP... then I have to think they also believe these values are good, correct, proper, etc.

Which is a shame. I don't think it'll cost the friendship, but it'll always be in the back of my mind now.
 
Opinium/Observer poll:

Conservative 43% (-2)
Labour 37% (+2)
Lib Dems 6% (-1)
Ukip 5% (nc)

Opinium is pretty mid-range as far as pollsters go. They show figures most like the average. 6 points is right on the cusp of hung parliament - either very slim Conservative majority or Conservatives propped up by DUP.

EDIT: N.B. these numbers do not include any debate impacts.

There won't be. The nuclear thing is getting overblown by leftists tbh.
 

Audioboxer

Member
When I think about it, a lot of the party line issues are based in boilerplate Conservative values. If they believe in them enough to work for the party or stand as an MP... then I have to think they also believe these values are good, correct, proper, etc.

Which is a shame. I don't think it'll cost the friendship, but it'll always be in the back of my mind now.

I don't doubt some of them genuinely believe that, but I do think others just sign off on some votes because they don't really care or it's not something that affects them. Bosses up top say do it, so they do it. MP's earn quite a decent living, so if you mix people that aren't that open to showing compassion to others, with a sustainable income, you can get a lot of apathy or even resentment to caring about issues that don't affect them. The standard I've got mine attitude.

The best thing you can do is ask someone why they vote how they do, without instantly jumping to conclusions. However, don't be surprised if the answer ends up being exactly what you expected.
 

Empty

Member
Thing is, at the start of this campaign the Conservatives were looking to take themselves into Labour territory and somehow become the party of the working class. Are they abandoning that strategy out of panic now? I just can't fathom a way this works out for them, other than maybe assuring the ruling classes that the Conservatives will still make life easy for them; no matter what shit happens during Brexit.

think the issue is that the media has started to report critically on may. there was never any substance to may's unique pitch to working class, she stated it as a direction in her debut speech then nothing materialised except borrowing miliband's energy policy*.

however before the election and even up to the manifesto launches the media in thrall to her high polling used just to parrot the line 'MAY PARKS HER TANKS ON LABOUR'S LAWN' every time she did even the tiniest thing. the mail splashed big on the policy of allowing workers to take a year off wholly unpaid to care for family members which is just ridiculous.

but as her campaign has fallen apart the focus has been on that and she hasn't been able to get away with it anymore. the media class group think that made everyone think she was incredible a month ago, like thatcher and churchill combined, has switched to that she's weak and wobbly and not up to it at all.

*something that gets no traction when corbyn promises to fully nationalise energy
 

kmag

Member
What's noticeable if you look at all the crosstabs is that demographically weighted data in all polls is pretty much starting to show a dead heat. It's all the turnover models and other complex filters which are producing the Tory lead. Now I'm not arguing that those models and filters are invalid (they're not, they tend to lag current contests because most of them are derived from the previous election, but they're logical adjustments by and large), but if you accept people on their word then it's really close. It'll come down to turnout, and local effects.

It's a very strange election.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?
 

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?


I was going to say something sarcastic about nukes but I'd actually be interested to hear his opinion on them.
 

CCS

Banned
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?

What parts of the Labour manifesto does he not agree with? Would be interesting to hear the answer to that.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?

Corbyn's foreign policy is a lot more assuredly progressive than his own. Maybe ask, politely, why he broke with Corbyn on issues like North Korea sanctions and Palestinian liberation?
 
It's a very strange election.

I have been saying this for weeks.

There's still far too much likelihood of the same things happening at this election as happen at every election - overstated youth turnout and shy Tories - handing May a comfortable majority.
 

Faddy

Banned
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?

Ask him

Mass migration lowered wages at the bottom end of the job market. How can wealthier countries protect the value of their native workforce?
 

PJV3

Member
I have been saying this for weeks.

There's still far too much likelihood of the same things happening at this election as happen at every election - overstated youth turnout and shy Tories - handing May a comfortable majority.

I'm enjoying the campaign far more than I ever dared to hope.
 

Razzer

Member
I'll be at a Q&A session with Bernie Sanders in about 4 hours - surprisingly, he's in Wales. Anyone got any good questions?
From his own experience, what does he think are the ways to increase youth turnout, particularly among non-students?
 
I'm enjoying the campaign far more than I ever dared to hope.

Yup! It has been an enjoyable campaign. I think the left has really got around the idea of just doing whatever it takes to vote out the Tories (much like unionists in Scotland doing whatever it takes to vote out the SNP).

Vince Cable should be an MP again on Friday. That cheers me no end.
 

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
I have been saying this for weeks.

There's still far too much likelihood of the same things happening at this election as happen at every election - overstated youth turnout and shy Tories - handing May a comfortable majority.


The shy Tory excuse pollsters gave in 2015 made sense to me because Cameron (amazingly) was respected if not liked and the 50p tax cut was a massive bribe that papered over the lack of policy to back up the 'we promise we're centrists' campaign.

If they are that far wrong again, with May's approvals tanking and there being nothing in the Tory manifesto that anyone would vote for, I don't think shy tory's works as an excuse, I think it will prove that the pollsters are fundamentally wrong in their approach.

(I agree that it's very likely to happen, just don't think we should accept the same excuses from the pollsters if it does)
 

Spaghetti

Member
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)

(via @ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871049102473220102

On who have the best policies for 'people like me and my family':

Theresa May and the Tories: 38%
Jeremy Corbyn and Labour: 44%

(@ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871049802133491713

Favourable / Unfavourable ratings:

T. May: 39 / 42
J. Corbyn: 32 / 47
T. Farron: 14 / 38
C. Lucas: 15 / 23
P. Nuttall: 8 / 45

(@ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871050110775513088
 
That favorability one is really interesting. Even if May returns with a decent size majority, which she will, this whole affair has been a huge hit on the 'May brand' or however you want to describe it.
 
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 1% (-)

(via @ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871049102473220102

On who have the best policies for 'people like me and my family':

Theresa May and the Tories: 38%
Jeremy Corbyn and Labour: 44%

(@ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871049802133491713

Favourable / Unfavourable ratings:

T. May: 39 / 42
J. Corbyn: 32 / 47
T. Farron: 14 / 38
C. Lucas: 15 / 23
P. Nuttall: 8 / 45

(@ComRes)

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871050110775513088

Some strange shite going on here why the fuck would any sane person back the party that's bad for them and family, lambs to slaughter syndrome in action again.
 

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
That favorability one is really interesting. Even if May returns with a decent size majority, which she will, this whole affair has been a huge hit on the 'May brand' or however you want to describe it.


Yep she's been exposed but I still think she was smart to call the election because if the public had worked out that she's a weathervane with no vision for the country before campaigning started she would have been in real trouble. I can't imagine she will last the next parliament, no one will want her job before Brexit happens but they'll be gunning for her the day the deal is signed (or not signed as the case may be).
 

gun_haver

Member
Some strange shite going on here why the fuck would any sane person back the party that's bad for them and family, lambs to slaughter syndrome in action again.

I think it's because people who recognise Labour's policies are better for them and/or the country in general, but will vote Tory anyway, also have an idea that Jeremy Corbyn is scared of the EU and will do anything they say, and also of course that in the highly likely event of nuclear war within the next 6 months, that Jeremy Corbyn will be too scared to join in and we'll all look very weak. Also if aliens land and try to take over the UK he'll probably just fucking surrender.
 
why the fuck would any sane person back the party that's bad for them and family

There is a very real fear that Corbyn's policies may be too good.

If everything gets really good for a while, it'll be even worse when the Tories get back in.

I think we need 3 Tory governments before returning to Labour, otherwise we won't 'feel the benefit'.
 
I think it's because people who recognise Labour's policies are better for them and/or the country in general, but will vote Tory anyway, also have an idea that Jeremy Corbyn is scared of the EU and will do anything they say, and also of course that in the highly likely event of nuclear war within the next 6 months, that Jeremy Corbyn will be too scared to join in and we'll all look very weak. Also if aliens land and try to take over the UK he'll probably just fucking surrender.


Funny thing about those aliens, saw that Rees-Mogg on television and got weird flashbacks to They Live.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Even if you can predict the turnout you still can't make any sense of this with fptp

I'm still expecting an overwhelming Tory majority from UKIPs collapse.
 
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