Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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This regulator (R. Cardoso) worked for 17 years in the department that decides on the acquisition of Act-Blz and change only 5 months ago. In other words, he has worked and knows about the work of the commission in this matter.

It would be very ridiculous to think that his statement was just a simple personal opinion unrelated to the actual process that is carried out.
 


This regulator (R. Cardoso) worked for 17 years in the department that decides on the acquisition of Act-Blz and change only 5 months ago. In other words, he has worked and knows about the work of the commission in this matter.

It would be very ridiculous to think that his statement was just a simple personal opinion unrelated to the actual process that is carried out.

😑😑😑
 
Do you think one man decides on the deal? It will of been made above him

All due respect but did I say that?

You need to look elsewhere in this thread for someone who thinks Phil, the head of a XBOX, makes decisions for Microsoft, the global conglomerate.
 
If the deal doesn't go through I don't think Phil Spencer survives. Obviously, his departure wouldn't be immediate. But the proverbial wheels would be in motion.
If it doesn't go through there will be scapegoats but Nadella put the face on it almost as much as Phil. They will both look bad but it will be hard to put the blame just on Phil. Having access to 70 billions is something that goes way higher than Spencer.
It's Kotick who has the most to lose in this situation.
In any case I don't think things will get there, they will be pressured to keep things multiplatform with legally binding "remedies" proposed to regulators. Words and promises have no value.
 
If it doesn't go through there will be scapegoats but Nadella put the face on it almost as much as Phil. They will both look bad but it will be hard to put the blame just on Phil. Having access to 70 billions is something that goes way higher than Spencer.
It's Kotick who has the most to lose in this situation.
In any case I don't think things will get there, they will be pressured to keep things multiplatform with legally binding "remedies" proposed to regulators. Words and promises have no value.

I disagree with the bolded.

Kotick has the most to gain. His Golden Parachute is rumoured to be one of the best in the business. Crazy that he oversaw such heinous work conditions which played a significant part in one person's suicide and his reward... Generational wealth when he walks out the door.
 
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I disagree with the bolded.

Kotick has the most to gain. His Golden Parachute is rumoured to be one of the best in the business. Crazy that he oversaw such heinous work conditions which played a significant in one persons suicide and his reward... Generational wealth when he walks out the door.
I meant he has the most to lose if the deal doesn't go through.
Of course if it does I agree on the rest.
Business can be disgusting.
 
25 minutes in.

Obviously with interviews like this it's an opportunity for Xbox to set their stall out rather than to take hardball questions. It seems the narrative was set in advance as the interviewer leaned in to the 'ABK is primarily about mobile' angle, (which I don't buy). Phil also seemed eager to present the Xbox brand as near autonomous from MS, which again is cock and bull. He does talk about the current economy and how games are not essential goods, which I like. As always with Phil he's a smooth talker so it's a nice interview to listen to regardless.

Reason I paused the video is that around 24:00 Phil Spencer is about to say something and starts with 'this is going to sound like an ad' and the interviewer says 'that's why we're here!' to which Spencer says 'that's not why we're here' :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Made me laugh and I appreciate the honesty.
 
- There is no deal re: Minecraft being on Sony/Switch.

- Have you made the promise to Sony re: always being on PS as long to a PS exists? No, the idea of a contract for a deal forever doesn't make sense for lawyers seems silly. You got have some ability to be flexible. "We think COD will be on PS as long as there is COD players on PS"

So Minecraft doesn't need a contract but CoD does, even though this deal isn't about CoD, but King? My heads spinning.

Also 'as long as there is CoD players on PS' is yet again a different statement to 'we will put CoD on PS for as long as there is a PS'.

How hard is it to get the messaging straight?
 
So Minecraft doesn't need a contract but CoD does, even though this deal isn't about CoD, but King? My heads spinning.

Also 'as long as there is CoD players on PS' is yet again a different statement to 'we will put CoD on PS for as long as there is a PS'.

How hard is it to get the messaging straight?
Think they would prefer not to have a contract like they don't for minecraft. But they would sign one if regulators and/or Sony wants.

Not that hard imo to understand.

Yes there is a difference between 'cod players on ps' and 'there being a ps'. I think they want to cover themselves in case cod isnt popular or isn't popular with playstation players.
 
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So Minecraft doesn't need a contract but CoD does, even though this deal isn't about CoD, but King? My heads spinning.

Also 'as long as there is CoD players on PS' is yet again a different statement to 'we will put CoD on PS for as long as there is a PS'.

How hard is it to get the messaging straight?
Minecraft = kids.
CoD= successful launch.
 
Damn an hour long? I will let others listen and decipher the talk and highlight the good parts here :)
TL;DL:

  • Primary focus / reason for the deal is expansion in Mobile
  • King is largest part of the Activision Deal - not COD
  • This deal isn't about COD - this is about expanding to Mobile and "other screens" that are key to MS' overall long term strategy
    • "We've got to build out our mobile capability..."
  • Overall market continues to grow at 8-9% - however, consoles / PC remain flat year to year in growth projections
  • Xbox (Consoles) are squarely in 3rd place and have been for quite a long time ...
  • With regards to COD - Is MS willing to make concessions?:
    • MS has not sat down, and Regulators have not engaged / asked / proposed for MS to make concessions for COD on other "competitor's" console(s) - yet...
    • Any details around concessions, etc., noted within the press are purely rumors / hearsay at this time...
    • MS would like to see that COD remains on Xbox and Playstation and Nintendo
    • It appears that the "competitor" is making the most noise here (they make light of this and note it's Sony BTW)
      • "I haven't heard that Nintendo's making complaints about the deal.."
    • Making COD exclusive to XBOX isn't in MS' models/forecast
    • MS is certainly open to discussions with regulators and Sony (and Switch if interested) in order to keep COD on Playstation / other consoles
    • References Minecraft as similar desired model for COD
      • Minecraft remains on other consoles as well
      • MS doesn't have any "deal" in place with Nintendo / Sony for Minecraft
    • Goal is not to harm / impact gamers in any way
    • Desired / target distribution would be COD available across all consoles and other channels (Mobile and GamePass) to give gamers/consumers choice and enable wider availability

I didn't listen to the entire thing - all of that was beginning around the 28 minute mark to 38 minute mark...
 
OK, so he will have no problem signing a contract that certifies this, right?
Again it would probably come down to the wording but it does sound like it.

I don't think the word 'forever' or 'perpetually' is going to be in an approved contract unless there are clauses to break it. .
 
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Think they would prefer not to have a contract like they don't for minecraft. But they would sign one if regulators and/or Sony wants.

Not that hard imo to understand.

Yes there is a difference between 'cod players on ps' and 'there being a ps'. I think they want to cover themselves in case cod isnt popular or isn't popular with playstation players.
IMO, surely a multilayered declaration/statement of intent to the regulatory bodies would suffice?

E.g. a commitment to keep CoD on PS for a further 3 years with the current terms including marketing, and after that time the games will continue to be published on PS at the same time and RRP as Xbox. The games won't be Game Pass exclusive and if it ever is, Sony will be allowed the opportunity to have it on Plus at the market value of an AAA game. Xbox will have exclusive marketing rights after the initial extension period and those terms are all valid for 15 years.

Surely that would ease regulator fears more than a 3 year guarantee?
 
Again it would probably come down to the wording but it does sound like it.

I don't think the word 'forever' or 'perpetually' is going to be in an approved contract unless there are clauses to break it. .

They don't need to write "Forever": they need to make the deal extendable by a Sony option, so they have the right and not Microsoft
 
OK, so he will have no problem signing a contract that certifies this, right?

In Latin they used to say: "Spoken words fly away, written words remain"
I mean. They offered a contract in January without external pressure, so every person with functional brain knows that they want to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation.

I think that even Sony knows that they will have Call of Duty until the end of time even without contract. But problem for them is they will loose marketing contract and they would need to fight against "Call of Duty included in Game Pass subscription on competing platform while we have it for 80€" That's why Jimbo is throwing a tantrum about this whole deal.
 
They don't need to write "Forever": they need to make the deal extendable by a Sony option, so they have the right and not Microsoft
Not sure how many more times Phil / MS can publicly state that they are willing to do this...

They covered this in the podcast in detail - no one (regulators, Sony) has asked for concessions yet to map out COD distribution going forward...

At this point - the onus is now on Sony / regulators to sit down with MS and formally request any specific concessions regarding the deal.
 
IMO, surely a multilayered declaration/statement of intent to the regulatory bodies would suffice?

E.g. a commitment to keep CoD on PS for a further 3 years with the current terms including marketing, and after that time the games will continue to be published on PS at the same time and RRP as Xbox. The games won't be Game Pass exclusive and if it ever is, Sony will be allowed the opportunity to have it on Plus at the market value of an AAA game. Xbox will have exclusive marketing rights after the initial extension period and those terms are all valid for 15 years.

Surely that would ease regulator fears more than a 3 year guarantee?
Now this is a more productive comment instead of feigning that that there is a fundamental paradox between MS's behaviour with Minecraft and their 'offer' with COD.

Microsoft's lawyers are definitely going to be coming up with some terms/conditions for regulators re COD and its upto regulators to figure out what's fair. I don't expect us to see it. I think the limits for MS will be interesting.

How are you defining GP exclusive? Aka on GP but no on PS plus despite being purchasable on both platforms?

I would be okay with a regulator coming up with a model to cost out COD's inclusion.
 


Another round for Sony fans to try to find "where is Spencer lying"


Another round for some Xbox fans as well. Let's not pretend Sony fans are the only ones suggesting Microsoft has something up their sleeve with all this. I can't count the number of times I've had to tell some Xbox fans that no, Phil Spender isn't going to do a 180 on this when the deal is done.
 
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I think that even Sony knows that they will have Call of Duty until the end of time even without contract.

Ludicrous take. Look at where Xbox's focus was in the later half of the 360 gen - Kinect and casuals. Now they've pivoted to subscriptions and cloud. Point is, things change rapidly in a decade and all it will take is for a change of execs/board members, a desire to increase profits in the LONG TERM and some bright spark to pipe up with 'what if we make Minecraft and CoD exclusive to Xbox?'
 
Ludicrous take. Look at where Xbox's focus was in the later half of the 360 gen - Kinect and casuals. Now they've pivoted to subscriptions and cloud. Point is, things change rapidly in a decade and all it will take is for a change of execs/board members, a desire to increase profits in the LONG TERM and some bright spark to pipe up with 'what if we make Minecraft and CoD exclusive to Xbox?'
Bad take.
If that was true, they would not offer anything ever until they were forced by regulators.

Why in the world they offered 3 more years in JANUARY, when there was nothing about "regulatory pressure?" Maybe because they want to keep that sweet 70% from every COD transaction on PlayStation?...
 
To be honest that's the most candid I've ever seen Phil in his communication. Quite refreshing.

One way around it is that the call of duty brand gets put to rest in a couple of years and they reboot it under a new name. Although on a sale of 1-10 in terms of probability I'd rank that as 1 since intentionally losing the power the COD brand carries would be an incredibly stupid blunder.

That said, I still don't see the point of them spending all that money to not have autonomy of it's exclusivity status. People want to say mobile blah blah but I'm just not seeing it. Part of me thinks that if the economy continues on its current death spiral trajectory then they simply allow the deal to fall through at the hands of the EU and UK, the deal is already horribly overpriced as it is.
 
Now this is a more productive comment instead of feigning that that there is a fundamental paradox between MS's behaviour with Minecraft and their 'offer' with COD.
It wasn't feigned, I'm just sick, off work and not thinking straight. Once you explained it was very clear (y)

Microsoft's lawyers are definitely going to be coming up with some terms/conditions for regulators re COD and its upto regulators to figure out what's fair. I don't expect us to see it. I think the limits for MS will be interesting.
(y)

How are you defining GP exclusive? Aka on GP but no on PS plus despite being purchasable on both platforms?
No, as in in 10 years time if MS want to pull the game from store fronts and the only way to access it would be through a Game Pass subscription. The regulators fears seem to be equally split and cloud/subscription seems to factor in - so I was just using it as an example which could ease their concern (even if that scenario is unlikely).

I would be okay with a regulator coming up with a model to cost out COD's inclusion.
I agree, we'll see where it goes.
 
Another round for some Xbox fans as well. Let's not pretend Sony fans are the only ones suggesting Microsoft has something up their sleeve with all this. I can't count the number of times I've had to tell some Xbox fans that no, Phil Spender isn't going to do a 180 on this when the deal is done.
There is no denying that in January there were some delusional Xbox fans who thought that Microsoft will make COD exclusive. But everybody without fanboy brain knew that would not happen.

But it's funny. Sony fans claimed that Microsoft need to keep Starfield, TES VI etc. as multiplat to "recoup that 7,5 billion," but now somehow they believe that Microsoft don't need to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation while recouping 68,7 billion dollars. Kinda change of stance, don't you think?

As soon as Microsoft started to claim that they are "Minecrafting" Call of Duty, everybody should know what to expect. But I guess we need to bring bullshit claims to keep conversation going until march, right?
 
Bad take.
If that was true, they would not offer anything ever until they were forced by regulators.

Why in the world they offered 3 more years in JANUARY, when there was nothing about "regulatory pressure?" Maybe because they want to keep that sweet 70% from every COD transaction on PlayStation?...
Because their lawyers anticipated regulatory pressure? Do you think people just live in the moment?
 
Ludicrous take. Look at where Xbox's focus was in the later half of the 360 gen - Kinect and casuals. Now they've pivoted to subscriptions and cloud. Point is, things change rapidly in a decade and all it will take is for a change of execs/board members, a desire to increase profits in the LONG TERM and some bright spark to pipe up with 'what if we make Minecraft and CoD exclusive to Xbox?'
If they want to tank the value of the IP and let some other 3rd party come up with the next COD. People are to either play warzone, the last cod game on ps or find a new game. Very few are switching for 1 game. There is a reason every 3rd party is praying for this because they hope it be them to fill the COD void.
 
Sony is the biggest Activision "customer", of course it has business in this

Sony's remarks triggered the regulators. Make no mistake about that
Doesn't matter.
MS is going to own Activision. Sony doesn't have any saying matter on Activision.
This is between MS and regulators.
 
Because their lawyers anticipated regulatory pressure? Do you think people just live in the moment?

Yep, I think it would have been incredibly naive of them to think pressure and serious questions wouldn't arise as a result of a deal this size. The macho public image and messaging they were attempting to portray was nothing but a cover. Could you imagine what happens to both their and ATVI's stock in the event that they publically admit they knew there would be significant hurdles to overcome?

Nvidia were still playing macho man right up until weeks before they decided to pull the plug on the Arm deal. This is just how it goes.
 
If they want to tank the value of the IP and let some other 3rd party come up with the next COD. People are to either play warzone, the last cod game on ps or find a new game. Very few are switching for 1 game. There is a reason every 3rd party is praying for this because they hope it be them to fill the COD void.
They are hoping to take that space on PlayStation, but the regulator questions to industry members were centred around 'how will this affect your ability to sell games/compete on the Xbox platform'.

For example, will anyone actually buy Battlefield on Xbox if CoD/Doom/Halo/Gears and Overwatch are available for £8 a month?
 
To be honest that's the most candid I've ever seen Phil in his communication. Quite refreshing.

One way around it is that the call of duty brand gets put to rest in a couple of years and they reboot it under a new name. Although on a sale of 1-10 in terms of probability I'd rank that as 1 since intentionally losing the power the COD brand carries would be an incredibly stupid blunder.

That said, I still don't see the point of them spending all that money to not have autonomy of it's exclusivity status. People want to say mobile blah blah but I'm just not seeing it. Part of me thinks that if the economy continues on its current death spiral trajectory then they simply allow the deal to fall through at the hands of the EU and UK, the deal is already horribly overpriced as it is.
Mobile currently makes insane money and it's safe bet. Since production cost is minimal, unlike Consoles and pc.
Gamepass is going to be strong in this current market, so that is another win.

Overall, deal is overpriced, but it would bring them alot of benefits during this hard economy.
 
Because their lawyers anticipated regulatory pressure? Do you think people just live in the moment?
It's still does not make any sense, it they were trying to "bluff" Sony. Because as Phase 1 in European Union and CMA shows, Microsoft is offering nothing unless they are forced to. They did not offer any concessions in those phases because there was no requirement to do it. So why offering Sony something if they are not forced? That is, if your argument about "bluffing Sony" is correct?

So, let me get this straight.

Microsoft somehow knew that FTC will publish new merger guidelines in march. They also knew that that regulatory pressure would be around Call of Duty and not around all AB catalogue of games, so they offered only Call of Duty and not Diablo (for example). Right?
 
Overall, deal is overpriced, but it would bring them alot of benefits during this hard economy.

It brings them a lot of burden and overhead in this difficult economy. By all accounts ATVI is already a bloated business. While restructuring after M&A is pretty much standard practice these days, they will have a hell of a job on their hands.
 
Isn't that what is happening now?
MS and regulators are having a nice conversation about this deal.

Ricardo Cardoso leading the discussions.

Denzel Washington GIF
 
It's still does not make any sense, it they were trying to "bluff" Sony. Because as Phase 1 in European Union and CMA shows, Microsoft is offering nothing unless they are forced to. They did not offer any concessions in those phases because there was no requirement to do it. So why offering Sony something if they are not forced? That is, if your argument about "bluffing Sony" is correct?
I'm not saying that they are 'bluffing' - I am saying they offered the 3 year extension to pre-emptively ease regulator concern.

So, let me get this straight.

Microsoft somehow knew that FTC will publish new merger guidelines in march. They also knew that that regulatory pressure would be around Call of Duty and not around all AB catalogue of games, so they offered only Call of Duty and not Diablo (for example). Right?
Yes. I absolutely believe 100% that a company the size of Microsoft is fully informed when regulation changes are happening, in advance. Government bodies don't act in secrecy, and information sharing is key to ensuring good relationships.

Because Microsoft's own internal data estimates how much CoD generates on PS, and as one of the largest annual income streams on the platform were easily able to identify that CoD would be contentious point in the deal, but Diablo wouldn't.
 
One way around it is that the call of duty brand gets put to rest in a couple of years and they reboot it under a new name. Although on a sale of 1-10 in terms of probability I'd rank that as 1 since intentionally losing the power the COD brand carries would be an incredibly stupid blunder.
Yeah, you would end up having to spend a shit tone on marketing and would give an opportunity for others.

It brings them a lot of burden and overhead in this difficult economy. By all accounts ATVI is already a bloated business. While restructuring after M&A is pretty much standard practice these days, they will have a hell of a job on their hands.

An extremely profitable company as well.
 
It brings them a lot of burden and overhead in this difficult economy. By all accounts ATVI is already a bloated business. While restructuring after M&A is pretty much standard practice these days, they will have a hell of a job on their hands.
MS said Activision would operate separately. So there is a little work there.
 
Because Microsoft's own internal data estimates how much CoD generates on PS, and as one of the largest annual income streams on the platform were easily able to identify that CoD would be contentious point in the deal, but Diablo wouldn't.
And since they know how much CoD generates on PS, they probably knew that they need to keep COD on PlayStation to make this deal work, right? So that whole spiel about "they will make COD exclusive" is just bullshit at this point. And of course Sony know it.
 
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