Looks like Microsoft are going to destroy the FTC from what people are hinting at. No idea on EC.
I am saying in the scenario that ONLY the CMA didn't ok it. Its a hyperthetical.
Who's hinting at that? What are their credentials? Did they recently become lawyers through Twitter?
MS has to hope things go their way with the CMA and EC before thinking about "destroying" the FTC in court. Which is a really weird way for people to fantasize about it; it's like they're cheering for them to win to get their dopamine fix, or like it's the son having his big moment at a football game.
These are companies buying other companies to try making more money from the companies being bought and you, the customer. I'm not gonna cheer for a company doing something to squeeze more money out of me...but if the product seems worth the value, I'd pay it.
I definitely don't want that to happen. But if Sony doesn't do anything illegal I don't think anyone would stop them.
It's normal for competitors to fail and leave the market. Sure I don't want that to happen but as long as nobody is doing anything illegal it's the way a competitive market functions.
Yeah, same thing happened with NEC/Hudson, with the 3DO Company, with Atari, with Sega (at least leaving as a platform holder). Competitors coming and going has been the standard more often than them staying entrenched for a long time. The main exceptions to that are Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft.
But Microsoft are arguably only still around because their sheer size and resources in revenue & profits from non-gaming markets have allowed them to tank losses that'd of destroyed smaller companies.
I also want to clear this up as well - there is no scenario, and I hope no one ever truly entertains this idea - that Microsoft would get out of gaming. Thats nonsense, and i'm going to spell out why in this post (strap-in!).
So, lets start with how MS and specifically Azure have been creating a suite of cloud services *tailor-made* for gaming. Like, I know it can look like that I am anti-MS or Xbox, but i'm really not; I am unapologetically anti-Spencer and think his shit management is precisely why Xbox has been in and continues to be in the positions they are. But with that said, things like Azure Playfab are AMAZING for gaming, and are, imo, a far better solution for videogame network engineering than AWS currently is. Azure caught up in a big way. Have any of you tried Capcom's SF6? Their entire Cloud infra is built in Azure. Even some of Sony's upcoming titles will be built and hosted in Azure. Its truly great stuff.
Microsoft's development tools, whether we're talking about the build tools or just Visual Studio, whether its full VS Pro or even Visual Studio Code, integrates into almost any engine or dev resource out there, is also yet another reason why MS will always be in gaming, that says nothing about how big Github is increasingly becoming in the game dev space (although P4 is still ruling the source control roost there due to being able to have it host full uncompressed assets for some of the biggest files in gaming - audio/textures). When we talk about things on the GL API side, they are still the foundation of PC gaming with DirectX, despite having solid alternatives out there.
I'm glad some other people have caught on to this. When MS announced that strategic partnership with Sega early last year, and the fuller terms came about, it helped clue me in to what Xbox and gaming could serve for them as a vector in being a growth market for Azure and productivity stacks running on it. One of the main reasons MS want ABK is to have them using Azure cloud for their network infrastructure, instead of AWS, and leveraging their data alongside that.
It's actually exactly the things you touch on here why I started to be of the belief that Sony may be better off rolling with another big cloud provider, rather than relying on Microsoft (whom IIRC they signed an MOU with, but I'm not sure if Sony actually entered through on or will do so going forward in light of what's going on with these acquisition inquiries, particularly if the ABK acquisition is approved). MS are getting a lot of the development side of the gaming community to use their tools, so in a sense they still have them in their ecosystem. And (IMO) as we've seen with Sega, they want to leverage gaming (through Xbox) to expand that reach with Asian game developers. In turn, we could end up seeing "perks" like we've been seeing with various Sega & Atlus games going into Game Pass and MS getting marketing rights to them, there's even a rumor Soul Hackers 2 might be coming to Game Pass. I doubt much of this would be happening if MS & Sega hadn't settled on a partnership for Azure (which Sega are also using for their Super Game project).
My thing is, how does Sony actually compete with that, especially if MS stay the course with Xbox going forward, keep it operating as a regular console business, and happen to get the ABK deal approved with very few concessions? That's why I think they should probably consider working with Google when it comes to expanding cloud infrastructure. Not just for cloud gaming, but hosting, technical support, development tools & resources, etc. Google would have more than a few reasons to want to enter such a partnership, because it gets them a way to be relevant within gaming even if Stadia is done for. Sony can salvage the best of the Stadia resources for PlayStation and maybe also help bring some of Google's grander concepts to reality in terms of gaming features they had planned for Stadia (direct Youtube integration, massive simultaneous cloud-powered game world instances, etc.). They could probably also work out a really sweet deal between them and Google for it, too.
Point is, it would also help ensure that Sony can provide the dev tools & support 3P developers need, in a manner as much of an independent as possible. Them turning to Microsoft Azure for cloud infrastructure, when MS still sell a direct competitor to PlayStation, and have already shown they're willing to push loss-leading strategies like Game Pass in order to attempt gaining market share, let alone buying big 3P publishers to do the same (and gate content away from PlayStation at their discretion), just doesn't sound like good recipe IMO. We know Sony provide tools that aren't Windows or MS-based for developers to use (even if they do also use MS tools for parts of software development); anything they can do to keep 3P developers preferring their development environment and pipeline over Microsoft's is going to be to Sony's benefit.
After all, Sony are already aware how much having the superior developer environment benefited them over Sega & Nintendo with the PS1, and has benefited them over MS with the XBO (the PS2 & PS3 weren't as easy to work with, but Sony eventually improved the tools plus they had a lot of brand strength regardless with customers). Well, if the development side is starting to favor more agnostic tools and location-agnostic pipelines (meaning cloud), Sony have to be ready to provide that. And I think they are. However, I personally think they would be better off partnering with a company like Google to facilitate that, rather than Microsoft, but a lot of that depends on how this ABK deal goes and what MS's intentions with further acquisitions in gaming are (assuming ABK is approved and concessions aren't severe).
Okay, what about outside of the gaming development side? The thing with games is that SW are still fantastic revenue generators. The biggest problem facing the Xbox division right now is that Spencer, and factually know that this is Spencer's call, really wants to compete in the console/HW space. Imagine, for a moment, that MS truly didn't give a fuck about selling HW - they'd be releasing games for all the studios they just purchased on anything that can run it - Nintendo/Sony/Mobile - they could expand xCloud to any platform that could want it. They'd see incredible returns on SW; the biggest thing keeping them afloat right now is SW revenue from Steam of all things! Without the HW focus, MS would be able to expand GP to any platform they wish, scale it back so that they weren't putting Day 1 AAA into it (this is killing them and is intended to be a console pushing move but it isn't working thus far).
If Nadella finally realizes what is holding back Xbox, axes Xbox leadership, and transitions them from being a HW-led business plan to truly being a SW/service division like he actually wanted them to be, they'd probably wind up being the biggest publisher in gaming by revenue, and they probably hit that within 24 months or so. Imagine titles like Grounded or Redfall dropping day 1 on Switch and PS - that is where Nadella wants them to be, not this fight over selling Xbox hw that Spencer seems to be obsessed with.
Agreed with this; only thing I see somewhat differently is that MS still keep Xbox hardware around but as a PC device (think mini PCs specifically aimed at gaming, or what the Steam Machines wanted to be last decade). I think Valve actually had a great idea with Steam Machines in theory, but the execution was bad; they tried doing it like the 3DO but we're still decades away from that business model ever actually being possible.
If MS would just treat Xbox like an extension of Windows that actually makes sense (as a PC, not a dedicated games console), it would open so many things up for them. They can finally sell the hardware at a profit, they can justify cutting back on the volume of unit production, they can put all their games on as many platforms as can natively run them Day 1, they can (probably) get specific versions of Game Pass on all platforms, and they would probably even have an easier time going forward with gaming acquisitions (in fact I think if they were doing that already, this ABK acquisition would have probably been going over in their favor much better).
But that requires MS to compromise and admit something internally I don't know if they're ready to yet. Though, as you basically said, the reason why is likely down to the current management; as long as they remain there, Satya and other higher-ups at Microsoft will probably never see the actual greener (no put intended) pastures in gaming, if they would just actually act like a full 3P publisher and shift Xbox to a line of gaming consolized mini-PC devices running Windows in full.