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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
kpopSuperstar
Member
Regarding the religious part of this. Trump is not religious, but his political power comes from getting the religious on his side. So he will let some nutjobs take part to appease them.
Same with Israel, Christians feel a religious connection, but for Trump it's about having a powerful military ally in the region. It's a win win for both.
Christianity elected Trump. Christianity is what empowers the right, and we would be done without it.
It's why Europe fell to the left, we abondoned what bonded and unified the right. The left don't understand that islam is the maga of the middle-east, it's what unify them.
So I can accept some fringe wackjobs of Christianity saying weird things. As long as we get the Christians on our side. We need them, without them the left wins.
Same with Israel, Christians feel a religious connection, but for Trump it's about having a powerful military ally in the region. It's a win win for both.
Christianity elected Trump. Christianity is what empowers the right, and we would be done without it.
It's why Europe fell to the left, we abondoned what bonded and unified the right. The left don't understand that islam is the maga of the middle-east, it's what unify them.
So I can accept some fringe wackjobs of Christianity saying weird things. As long as we get the Christians on our side. We need them, without them the left wins.
The mission is to "prevent Iran from having the ability to project power from outside of its borders"
I guess it's nice to want things. I just don't have confidence that this isn't going to become a shit show down the road with likely US boots on the ground.
Buggy Loop
Gold Member
Not a single war that would turn into guerilla warfare has ever been « no cards » as you describe. I would fucking hope USA remembers that or at least talk to someone in your family that likely went to war at one point.
FullMetalx117
Member
One wants to bring forth armageddon, the other is sensible!
ChuckeRearmed
Member
To be fair Al Qaeda is not a big fan of IRGC and their shia militant groups. Al Qaeda are sunnis.
Just because he is a vet (and turned out he is into Palestine and stuff) it does not mean he should have immunity.
Sounds like fake news. Especially from "Republicans against Trump" account. "Three former US officials"
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LyricalShrike
Member
I don't understand the conspiracy angle regarding Azerbaijan. Aliyev is a dictator who doesn't need a false flag to join in the conflict and Erdogan leans on being a strongman since he has dreams of a pan-turkic union. Nakhchivan borders SE turkey and its airport is probably 10-20 km from the border. Turkey and NATO have acknowledged that Iran already attempted to hit Turkey with missiles. The exclave is under the protection of Turkey and frequently host Turkish military assets. Its a logical place to catch direct hits or strays when Iran is crashing out at a regional scale.
winjer
Gold Member
I know, but getting to the pint of supporting Israel and the USA, that is the real strange point.
But I guess the motto "the enemy of my enemy, is my friend", rings very true in this situation.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Al Qaeda are Sunni extremists they hate the Shiites (Shia) as much as they hate Christianity and Judaism. To most Sunni, Shiites (Shia) are apostate and not true Muslims
Critical Hit
Member
It seems more likely that this was a plan in case Khomeini killed and didn't have a successor. Just attack all the enemies. The plan's implementation is pretty embarrassing, which probably means there's still a lack of coordination.
kpopSuperstar
Member
There are a lot of arabs that wants israel to eradicate palestine. The middle-east is divided by race and religion by blood, all the various terror groups have been killing each other forever, there is deep hatred in the region, half of them wants america to nuke the fuck out of the other.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
Yep, and Afghanistan is at war with Iran, although they're one of the few countries they haven't fired at in the last few days.
Still, it's a bizarre thing to see.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
It is a pressing focus. The amount of launches Iran is able to do now is much less than before.
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kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
There were multiple terrorist attacks in Iran executed by ISIS followers. Hardcore sunni's see shiites as heathens.
According to ChatGPT:
ISIS has carried out a handful of major attacks since 2017.
Major confirmed attacks
- 2017 – Tehran attacks
Targets: Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini.
Result: 17 civilians killed, 43 wounded in shootings and suicide bombings. - 2018 – Ahvaz military parade attack
Attack during a military parade killed ~25–30 people. ISIS claimed responsibility (though other groups were also suspected). - 2022 – Shah Cheragh shrine attack (Shiraz)
Gunman attacked a Shiʿa shrine. ~13–15 people killed, 40+ injured. - 2023 – Shah Cheragh shrine shooting (second incident)
Smaller attack at the same shrine killed 2 people and wounded several. - 2024 – Kerman bombings
Two explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani killed 80+ people and injured hundreds. ISIS claimed responsibility.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Well to be fair ISIS does not like anybody. Then again ISIS is also not a monolith. Julani was a leader of some ISIS group before joining the side of Al Qaeda and such. The region is a mess.
Stitch
Member
They should put him on a watch list before he's turning into a domestic terrorist
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
I hope the data they gave yesterday is the truth and not just postering.
Surely when a missile is launched the US possesses some kind of technology that can decipher the rough location?
It seems like whatever missile bases haven't been destroyed are very well concealed
Buggy Loop
Gold Member
The strait of Hornuz, fucking up water and power plants, are the only things Iran has to focus to start making people's sweat and tank the GCC's petrodollar (USD). Japan is already sweating but that's just the tip of the iceberg.
China's suggestion here is actually to force a speedrun on the pressure, in no way that's good
I think Christianity can do so much better than having so much influence in electing someone like Trump. Probably why I have a feeling this lefty is pretty terrifying for the right.
As a secular Texan and former Christian, it was exceedingly easy to support him
ChuckeRearmed
Member
That's why they are bombing that much - to destroy the launchers. Certain things are hidden underground - and exposed only during the launch so you can pinpoint them only when they launch. The air domination is important - with crippled air defenses they can target the launchers, but you still have some drone or missiles hitting some places from time to time. That's inevitable. The main part is the scale - bases do not have systems like Iron Dome everywhere.
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Bojji
Gold Member
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Jaybe
Member
Guy seems mentally ill. Looks like he broke his own hand. Stability in the Middle East through neutering Iran is in America's interest. Screaming about Israel makes him look unhinged.
DeafTourette
Perpetually Offended
Somehow I don't see this posted by searching keywords in this thread nor the couple last pages up to 2 days ago?
Tell me its fake news ffs. I can't imagine someone in a position of planning, decision making for companies/battalions would even think this shit in modern times.
This is real. I saw it a couple days ago. Some Looney tunes folks are really in positions of power
DeafTourette
Perpetually Offended
Iran is gonna wake up one day and be free to choose their own destinies!
Senua
Member
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
You can't protest in uniform even if retired. You are still subject to the UCMJ code of conduct.
1st amendment does not protect that nor does it protect barging into an official assembly.
Beats chics with dicks and men in dresses.
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AJUMP23
Parody of actual AJUMP23
Not how you act in a congressional hearing. You can protest outside, not inside. There are videos of this dude wearing a Keffiyeh and basically swearing allegiance to Palestine. He may be a former marine but that does not make him loyal to the country.
He disrespected the uniform.
kruis
Exposing the sinister cartel of retailers who allow companies to pay for advertising space.
This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook. Unable to store additional oil in strategic reserves and state-owned or privately-owned facilities, they will soon be forced to halt production at some of the largest oil fields on earth.
This will have disruptive consequences for following these countries:
- Iraq
- Kuwait
- UAE
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
Depending on the geology of the field and the specific technologies implemented, shutting in wells could even permanently damage reservoirs and production infrastructure. At that point, in addition to the supply disruption at Hormuz, markets will face the prospect of a medium to long-term reduction in oil supply from the Middle East. This would bake a massive risk premium into oil prices—and particularly regional crude grades—for months, or potentially longer, depending on the course of the war.
Historically, storage tanks are rarely utilised above the 80% threshold; therefore, filling them to absolute maximum capacity may not be technically feasible, and the real countdown may be even shorter than anticipated
Two further considerations must be mentioned.
When storage space will run out, some countries such as Saudi Arabia and UAE may still have the ability to divert some energy flows to alternative routes, continuing exports. However, this presents a strategic opportunity for Iran-aligned forces to deliver a tremendous blow to these regional U.S. partners by striking that specific infrastructure.
When regional oil producers will be faced with the risk of a total production halt, their sovereign survival—and not just the one of the Iranian regime—will be at stake.
At that point, an expansion of the war becomes inevitable as Riyhad and Baghdad (the first and second OPEC producers) suffer catastrophic daily economic damage.
Where and with whom they will fight—well this is another story entirely.
• Francesco Sassi
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Hmmm ... that's new information
Bojji
Gold Member
Interesting, I didn't know that.
Shouldn't constitutional first amendment still be above any other law or document (if he was sued for this for example)?
DeafTourette
Perpetually Offended
Isis needs to be demolished
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Not when it comes to the military. The uniform is also property of the US military. It also does not protect you from official congressional hearings, we've seen people removed forever now for this, it's nothing new. It also does not protect you from resisting when officers are restraining you, or trying to get you to leave via being trespassed.
Correct. You can also do it outside an official hearing, not inside while it's being conducted.
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DeafTourette
Perpetually Offended
From what I can tell, you can do all that when NOT in uniform. Doing it IN uniform is a HUGE no-no and subject to consequences
Isis isn't an object or a location that can be demolished, any person or a group can call themselves isis.
"Demolish" a group called isis, then isis 2 will pop up.
Romulus
Member
Similar to Venezuela. Liberals telling people how they should feel about their country lmao. This is the kind of stuff you'll be banned for posting on reddit or the purple forum. They're incredibly fragile to any views outside their own. Hope they continue to lose the middle and young voters.
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StabbyStabStabStabStab
Member
Well there was a construction firm near where I used to work called ISIS Group - at the time they used to find abusive messages left on their VM such as:
'Hey you terrorist bastards, I hope you bastards all die in Iraq, you terrorist al-Qaeda bastards, you ISIS pieces of s**t'
Because of course along with creating havoc in Syria they had a branch in Melbourne focused on building small public amenities.
You could demolish them I guess.
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ChuckeRearmed
Member
"Completely normal phenomenon".
Now imagine how many muslim sympathizers are in the military. At least with Christianity you know that they are not fighting for Hamas or Iran
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
His final statement, that without oil, the middle east would be much like Africa.
I wonder if he believes that it applies to democracy in the region as well.
Idleyes
Gold Member
No, that's not what I was implying. My comment about the "baby Hitler" question was just a philosophical jest about allies sometimes sharing similar threat assumptions. When governments already interpret a situation through a similar composition, the range of responses that feel acceptable can end up looking pretty similar.
MidGenRefresh
*Refreshes biennially
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Nobody will allow Iran to survive because they will always try to use this argument as a leverage later. "Allows us to do this or else". Other countries will do whatever it takes to destroy Iran to prevent other attempts to use it as a hostage.
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calico
Member
You would be physically removed (if it became necessary) for doing that out of uniform too, for disrupting the meeting, which is not protected by the first amendment.
If the removal was based on what he was saying, then it would be a first amendment issue. For instance, if someone else started behaving the same way but they were not removed -because this time the person was shouting something the officials happened to agree with- then you would have an issue.
If the removal was based on what he was saying, then it would be a first amendment issue. For instance, if someone else started behaving the same way but they were not removed -because this time the person was shouting something the officials happened to agree with- then you would have an issue.
ClanOfNone
Member
I've oft wondered what would become of the ME if cold fusion or some other method revolutionized the energy sector.
If oil become worthless, the entire region collapses.
Or the other logical conclusion, the oil dries up. They pull hundreds of millions of barrels a day outta the ground, it can't last forever.
Windom Earle
Member
Absolutely disgusting. Asmongold is actually defending all of this, had to stop watching him because of how obviously disingenuous all of his takes on the war are.
Buggy Loop
Gold Member
It was always gonna be about the GCC's petrol capacity. It's the biggest leverage by far in the region.
Do they, though? And are they?
China has been pretty good at buying stuff up overseas due to soft foreign investment laws and certainly is pretty good at RUTHLESSLY squashing any internal disputes (re Ughuirs) due to soft power enabling them to escape virtually any international scrutiny, but their ability to actually PROJECT military power is HIGHLY questionable. How good is their doctrine? How good are their logistics (here I would expect them to excell), how good is their maintenance? A lot of their stuff seems to be reverse engineered from western tech, so does it really work? The US, if nothing else, are MASTERS at force projection because it's basically all we do, for DECADES. We have bases and contacts everywhere and can be EVERYWHERE. Stuff like the current Iran operation would be unimaginable for China, they have no where near the platforms and the connections to move in and operate in such a fashion.
Plus it's a ticking clock for them. Between the upcoming population collapse and global diversification away from "china build everything", I'm not sure they can stay the silent elephant in the room. So good on them for trying to transition to a world mediator, so we can see how they might do it.
vindafarna
Member
It seems that pro-Palestinian supporters always wish to make themselves known in the most obnoxious and inappropriate ways. Alas, that fomer Marine disgraced his uniform.
StreetsofBeige
Member
In life, there's always some groups of people (from different backgrounds, politics, class etc....) who are always louder and more annoying than others.
Even people protesting and striking in the same company can be wildly different. When it comes to union strike time just compare how pilots protest vs the other airline workers. One group is pretty chill. The other can be rowdy. Both unionized and work at the same place.
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