ChuckeRearmed
Member
If Ghalibaf is involved, this makes things interesting.
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
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If Ghalibaf is involved, this makes things interesting.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Because Ghalibaf is a technocrat neo-principlist aka he is ideologically aligned with ayatollah but less of a hawk. Larijani for example was a hawk. I think the big wildcard is the people's protest. Ghalibaf being aligned with IRGC and such, will not make him that popular among people who were protesting but I doubt he is as hated as old leadership was.
Especially considering that Pahlavi is becoming increasingly similar to European "strong worded letter" Union. Together with CIA losing interest in kurdish rebellion (probably due to Turkey), there might be something interestying. But at the same time somebody might kill Ghalibaf - foreign agents or hardliners. And then the calculus will change. It is also possible nothing is going to work out too.
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Unknown Soldier
Member
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
I thought this was fake at first "I am please", "witch" but I'm guessing it's real but rushed maybe to prop up the markets?
Dacvak
No one shall be brought before our LORD David Bowie without the true and secret knowledge of the Photoshop. For in that time, so shall He appear.
I'd assume it was fake if it didn't have typos in it lol
I wish all the Democrats would vote Green and all the Republicans would vote Libertarian.
Meicyn
Gold Member
And potentially give a grifting tankie like Jill Stein the presidency? Absolutely not.
Puerto Rican Independence Party?
violence
Member
Apparently all caps turns off autocorrect.
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calico
Member
"Tomorrow morning, sometime their time, we were expecting to blow up their largest electric generating plants that cost over $10bn (£7.5bn) to build," he says.
"It was a very good one, there was no dearth of money. One shot it is gone. It collapses. Why would they want that?
"So they called, I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal," [President] Trump says.
"And we are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal, and it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.
"They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They're agreeing to that. Any of that stuff, there is no deal," he adds.
"It was a very good one, there was no dearth of money. One shot it is gone. It collapses. Why would they want that?
"So they called, I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal," [President] Trump says.
"And we are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal, and it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.
"They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They're agreeing to that. Any of that stuff, there is no deal," he adds.
FullMetalx117
Member
They must've prepared reading The Art of the Deal...hopefully Trump ready for that
LordCBH
Gold Member
Gp1
Member
If Ghalibaf is involved without the IRGC involvement, Ghalibaf ain't going to be involved for long. I would like to know what's the role of the Artesh in all of this. The Iranian Regular army could play a interesting role in all of this.
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ChuckeRearmed
Member
Unknown Soldier
Member
hououinkyouma00
Member
JerryinSoCal
Member
I was talking to a guy yesterday who got an electric car based on his friend telling him he saved so much on gas, he said his electric bill jumped up $400 lol. Not sure if he was lying or not, I know it cost me $150 to fill up my truck yesterday but I live in CA so gas is higher here than most other places anyway.
Another glorious success of "gun free zones" where only the law abiding are disarmed....
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
I would assume all depends on which state and the cost of electricity in that state like California is pretty expensive and how much they drive
I know back home in Indiana when my son switched to a Tesla his app shows he pays around $10 of extra electricity for 300 miles of range when charging at home
With some of the strictest gun laws in the country, guess criminals don't care about laws
Boo Who?
Gold Member
Wait until it gets warm out. Those numbers will be much more impressive for Chicago.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Bojji
Gold Member
Kilau
Member
The fuel cost doesn't just vanish, it transfers, so of course home electric goes up but unless you have some terrible tier pricing it will be way less than gas. Tesla app shows you your savings when you put the cost per kWh in.
Gp1
Member
They were always a second rate force, behind the IRGC, and they suffered mass purge when the revolution occurred.
But I still can't find credible information on how loyal they are to the regime right now.
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ChuckeRearmed
Member
Rather than being a second rate, I think it is mainly due to the internal tension between iranian elites. Fundamentally, for the elites within Iran there is no reason to use Artesh because keeping it out of the game allows IRGC to get all the heat and the weaker IRGC becomes the stronger position of Artesh is going to be. It is a situation of "wait and see". Basij is also getting weaker and weaker. So Artesh and the elites behind them has the most to gain by not doing anything.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Gp1
Member
Unless someone backs out and call it a day before the "clerical" component of the regime gets weak enough.
(I don't think that's going to happen, specially with the amount of forces diverting to the AO, but there are still a possibility)
Just to remember that the Iranian "conventional air force" and the "big boat" surface navy were still part of the Artesh and got destroyed to a point of being combat ineffective, not the IRGC "air" force and navy (the asymmetrical force drones, missiles, fast mine laying boats, etc).
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You're not likely to be 'finishing the fucking job' without ground troops. Or without escalating the situation such that Iran's retaliation severely impacts the gulf states.
Big-G
Member
Exactly, it will be a complete shit show.
I don't agree with that. I'm not in the situation room, but you can also do covert ops that will take it down. There are already boots on the ground in Iran, you just don't know about them. And they could help topple this regime with creative thinking.
ZehDon
Member
In terms of his press conferences? More or less. In term's the market? Absolutely. Been watching some of the market shifts being discussed on Reddit. Looks like there's a few big players out there taking big shorts and futures that are netting themselves enormous profits, predicting the impact of Trump's statements perfectly. Almost as if they know what Trump is going to say and when he's going to say it before he does. I'm sure an investigation into these geniuses will begin any second now...Is this even close to real? If it is,
Gp1
Member
Smells like the "spec ops" at the nuclear sites.
What Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail, According To Former CENTCOM Commander
Joseph Votel offers insights on securing Iran's uranium, seizing Kharg Island, dwindling stocks of missile interceptors, and how long Epic Fury will last.
www.twz.com
Going after the fissile material I think is a bigger operation. Again, I think we have the capabilities to do this. Within our Special Operations community, we have people that are trained to do this and have the right relationships and connections and other things to allow us to get in and do that. So you'd have to be able to project that force onto the ground. This would be going to a place like Natanz or Isfahan – probably one of those locations. Those are well inland – several hundred miles into Iran, a country of the same size as the state of Alaska. So it's big and it's diverse. It's largely in an open plain, so you don't have a lot of natural terrain protection there. That would have to be taken into consideration.
In addition to the kind of operators you put on the ground, you'd also have to bring in a security force, but probably a sizable security force – a brigade size or 1,000 to 3,000 or 4,000 troops to just secure while they did that work. You'd have to do that. You'd have to make sure you dedicated air power. You'd have to put CAPs [combat air patrols] up over, you'd have to have ISR [information, surveillance and reconnaissance] in place.
Again, you'd have the challenge of people on the ground, so you'd have to logistically sustain them and then be prepared to protect that tail. And then you have to have all of the lift, whether it's rotary wing or fixed wing, to get them in and get them all back out. And then you have the added challenge of handling nuclear material. So about 450-some kilograms. That's roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% highly enriched uranium. And that's a lethal material. So ideally, that would be packaged already, but we'd have to make sure we packaged that and moved it and had someplace to actually take it back to.
A general view of Isfahan (UCF) nuclear power plant about 180 miles from Tehran (HENGHAMEH FAHIMI/AFP via Getty Images) HENGHAMEH FAHIMI
So, yeah, could we do a military operation? Sure. I think it would kind of look like I described there. It would be a big operation, and it wouldn't be something that would be done in a single period of darkness. It probably takes some time. You'd have to have some special capabilities to go in and excavate these things and identify them.
There's no real open-source discussion of what the conditions are at these things, you'd have to be prepared for the worst, and the worst would be having to dig down and find it. I'm hoping that our intelligence community understands this a little bit more, and I suspect that is the case. But this is a pretty big, pretty significant operation.
An alternative to this would be waiting until there is a cessation of hostilities and then trying to go in in a more semi-permissive environment with elements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who really have responsibility for this. They would bring expertise in to do this. We – or some other military force – would probably assist with some of that. But that may be another option as well. I'm sure they're looking at all these.
Q: This is not a job for a Tier One unit like SEAL Team Six or Delta, to go in and grab it, right? There's a lot of discussion about that.
A: Yeah. First of all, you're not just going to go in and grab 1,000 pounds of nuclear material and then ferret it right out. That's not the case. Those unique capabilities reside within the Special Operations community. I won't identify organizations, but they reside within the tip top of our special operations capability. They're trained and maintained and normally exercise and rehearse on a regular basis. So, yeah, we have the ability to do that. But it's unlikely – in my view, my estimate, with what I know – that you just send a few folks in there, grab the stuff and get it out. I don't think that's the case. I think it's going to take more. You might be able to do that in a permissive environment, but I don't think you want to take the risk associated with that in the environment that we're seeing right now, or perhaps even in a semi-permissive environment.
In addition to the kind of operators you put on the ground, you'd also have to bring in a security force, but probably a sizable security force – a brigade size or 1,000 to 3,000 or 4,000 troops to just secure while they did that work. You'd have to do that. You'd have to make sure you dedicated air power. You'd have to put CAPs [combat air patrols] up over, you'd have to have ISR [information, surveillance and reconnaissance] in place.
Again, you'd have the challenge of people on the ground, so you'd have to logistically sustain them and then be prepared to protect that tail. And then you have to have all of the lift, whether it's rotary wing or fixed wing, to get them in and get them all back out. And then you have the added challenge of handling nuclear material. So about 450-some kilograms. That's roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% highly enriched uranium. And that's a lethal material. So ideally, that would be packaged already, but we'd have to make sure we packaged that and moved it and had someplace to actually take it back to.
A general view of Isfahan (UCF) nuclear power plant about 180 miles from Tehran (HENGHAMEH FAHIMI/AFP via Getty Images) HENGHAMEH FAHIMI
So, yeah, could we do a military operation? Sure. I think it would kind of look like I described there. It would be a big operation, and it wouldn't be something that would be done in a single period of darkness. It probably takes some time. You'd have to have some special capabilities to go in and excavate these things and identify them.
There's no real open-source discussion of what the conditions are at these things, you'd have to be prepared for the worst, and the worst would be having to dig down and find it. I'm hoping that our intelligence community understands this a little bit more, and I suspect that is the case. But this is a pretty big, pretty significant operation.
An alternative to this would be waiting until there is a cessation of hostilities and then trying to go in in a more semi-permissive environment with elements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who really have responsibility for this. They would bring expertise in to do this. We – or some other military force – would probably assist with some of that. But that may be another option as well. I'm sure they're looking at all these.
Q: This is not a job for a Tier One unit like SEAL Team Six or Delta, to go in and grab it, right? There's a lot of discussion about that.
A: Yeah. First of all, you're not just going to go in and grab 1,000 pounds of nuclear material and then ferret it right out. That's not the case. Those unique capabilities reside within the Special Operations community. I won't identify organizations, but they reside within the tip top of our special operations capability. They're trained and maintained and normally exercise and rehearse on a regular basis. So, yeah, we have the ability to do that. But it's unlikely – in my view, my estimate, with what I know – that you just send a few folks in there, grab the stuff and get it out. I don't think that's the case. I think it's going to take more. You might be able to do that in a permissive environment, but I don't think you want to take the risk associated with that in the environment that we're seeing right now, or perhaps even in a semi-permissive environment.
If this goes forward we are going to see what's probably the most complicated special operation of all time.
IlGialloMondadori
Member
What is this even supposed to mean?
More people also died of cancer in US last month than died in Iran.
More people died in US of food poisoning in a year than died in Iran war so far.
One has nothing to do with the other, and it doesn't mean that the deaths in Iran aren't unfortunate.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Damn! absolute slime balls if this is true. Literally, playing the market?
The Sum of Zero
Member
What Trump needs lmao
(An old-school wrestling drunk joke post, before you bootlickers get your panties in a wad)
(An old-school wrestling drunk joke post, before you bootlickers get your panties in a wad)
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ZehDon
Member
Trump's cartel have realised that it's open season. It's catching headlines now, but the people who'd investigate and possibly bring charges are literally Trump's own cartel. I imagine he's going to pillage the American and global economies like Putin does in Russian until the market craps out, or he dies.
Timing news announcements to the market—maybe?— is hardly on the same level of stealing all the natural resource wealth of your country and depositing it to yourself and a handful of oligarchs while sending an entire generation of your male population to their deaths for fun.
StueyDuck
Member
Whether its true or not I cant say.
But if it is i can promise you they all do it... if theres a money system people with power can abuse they will.
Just look at all the corruption being unearthed in the various states in the US
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
But you're out here calling Trump a coward instead of pushing your own leaders to activate the boots on the ground you claim are already there.
Show some gratitude to the U.S. at least.
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IlGialloMondadori
Member
I don't think anyone said it's the same level. It's still lame as fuck, and at best, he shouldn't be trying to profit from a war, and he shouldn't be using the situation to make his rich buddies richer.
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Coward if he stops this before the regime is done.
Israel already has boots on the ground and did several covert ops.
Vestal
Junior Member
You had any doubt about President Bonespurs? He is the definition of a coward. Always has been.
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