Support NeoGAF

[Krev]

Apple will coil around them like a python and squeeze them all simultaneously.

I think so. I doubt the console market will see growth in the next generation.

Apple's really only in the mobile space right now though. If they go big in TV gaming Nintendo is the most vulnerable.

That's what I think will happen. Tim Cook was hinting back in January that they are thinking about a big push for some sort of TV-based product, and there are a lot of rumours swirling about this. With the position they are in with iOS and Apple's focus on bringing the same sort of experience across their platforms, it would only be natural for gaming to play a part.

In handhelds that I'd say they're pinching sort-of from above since ipads cost a lot more, but also from the side because you need an iphone/ipad for other things (negating the up-front cost for gaming to some extent because you already have it) and can just have a game or two as well.

There's also the iPod Touch pinching from...the side? Since Apple's products are convergence devices, it's hard to make direct correlations with gaming products.

 

[iamshadowlark]

I think so. I doubt the console market will see growth in the next generation.

Yep its not like it hasn't seen more growth this generation than ever before. Nope.

 

[Busaiku]

It is interesting how the PS2 and DS behaved so differently at the ends of their respective generations.

Nintendo effectively replaced DS with 3DS.
No games are being released for the DS despite the 3DS being about a year old.

The PS2 still sells to this day.

Is it just a difference in philosophy from the manufacturers?

DS is still getting Pokemon Conquest and Pokemon Black/White 2.
It could probably pass PS2 this year.

 

[Krev]

Yep its not like it hasn't seen more growth this generation than ever before. Nope.

I don't think the numbers will increase over the coming generation.

 

[iamshadowlark]

I don't think the numbers will increase over the coming generation.

Whats supposed to halt it?

 

[Krev]

Whats supposed to halt it?

Increasing competition for entertainment time and money over the next decade. This includes more convergence devices stealing marketshare.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Increasing competition for entertainment time and money over the next decade.

There has been tons of competition, for ages now with almost no effect. Convergence devices included.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

DS is still getting Pokemon Conquest and Pokemon Black/White 2.
It could probably pass PS2 this year.

DSi/XL are also getting big US price cuts ($99/$129). I'm honestly a bit surprised at Nintendo's low DS projection given that, I think they have to be phasing out ptoduction or something?

 

[Road]

I'm really surprised by the clairified 6m PSP projection, even moreso than the 10m Vita projection (which presumably includes the 1.8m for this year).

It does not.

1.8m was until Mar, 2012.

They expect more 10m from Apr, 2012, to Mar, 2013.

For a LTD of 11.8m by Mar, 2013.

 

[Krev]

There has been tons of competition, for ages now with almost no effect. Convergence devices included.

I can't see the console market not being affected by whatever major TV based product(s) Apple is cooking up and the burst of new competitors in its sector of the market that will surely follow its launch. I think this device will meet the needs of a lot of casual console buyers who helped make Wii and PS2 the big success stories they were.
All speculation, of course.

 

[D.Lo]

And how is it doing these days?

You used the word 'fad' to describe something that sold strongly for four years and will hit 100 million. That the Wii's lifecycle is over with an imminent successor long announced and almost all dev resources having been shifted to 3DS does not make it a retrospective fad.

If the Wii was a 'fad', the Xbox, 360, PS3, PSP, SNES, Genesis, NES and every other console ever released except PS1, PS2, Game Boy and DS were mere blips on the radar.

Vita is doing terribly but Idk what that has todo with the PS3 or how they are comparable at all.

You really can't see how? If the PSV was smashing the 3DS right now everyone would see it as a sign of a resurgent Sony.

And how is Microsoft pinching "from above"? If anything Sony/MS have been neck-and-neck this generation.

Microsoft has the funds to take another massive red hit to launch a mega-powerful console and take out the top 'tech' end. MS can do another PS3/360 'loss leader', Sony can not.

And both of them can finish ahead of the Wii.

The Wii is 32 million ahead os PS3, and the PS3 outsold the Wii by 4 million in the last year. At those rates it will take 8 more years. Realistically, it's likely the Wii has another 5-10 million in it total, and if PS3 does what Sony's projecting this year (13-14 million) it will still be more than 25 million behind well into the next generation. And losing systems don't keep selling into next generations. It's not going to happen.

Really please do explain how Sony is in a bad position going into next-gen?

They didn't win the previous gen, haven't a chance in hell of making back what they initially lost on the PS3, and are in bad financial shape as a whole? The entire PS3 strategy was a market position and financial disaster.

 

[iamshadowlark]

I can't see the console market not being affected by whatever major TV based product(s) Apple is cooking up and the burst of new competitors in its sector of the market that will surely follow its launch. I think this device will meet the needs of a lot of casual console buyers who helped make Wii and PS2 the big success stories they were.
All speculation, of course.

Well if Apple indeed comes with a TV product I still don't see it eating much if anything from Sony/MS.


I also wouldn't group the PS2 with the Wii as far as success goes. PS2 was a major success because it had one of the best catalogs of games ever and games kept flowing even into its death. The Wii's success was more of a perfect storm thing. A rather bad economy, low price, and innovative new controller is what made Wii the hit it was.

 

[NeoUltima]

Too much thread to dig into (and if I didn't see in OP I am blind) but is there a income breakdown by division?

edit: ok nvm, had to open the link

 

[Krev]

Well if Apple indeed comes with a TV product I still don't see it eating much if anything from Sony/MS.


I also wouldn't group the PS2 with the Wii as far as success goes. PS2 was a major success because it had one of the best catalogs of games ever and games kept flowing even into its death. The Wii's success was more of a perfect storm thing. A rather bad economy, low price, and innovative new controller is what made Wii the hit it was.

PS2 is the most successful console of all time because it catered well to everyone. Every dedicated gamer had to have one for the amazing library of exclusives, but it also sold to a lot of more casual customers, including families. To use anecdotal evidence, I know people who weren't hugely into gaming but bought a PS2 to have some fun here and there, and a good number of them went on to buy a Wii in this generation. I think this was fairly widespread.

 

[Busaiku]

DSi/XL are also getting big US price cuts ($99/$129). I'm honestly a bit surprised at Nintendo's low DS projection given that, I think they have to be phasing out ptoduction or something?

Well, on the Japanese front, it's pretty much nonexistent.
And I imagine Europe has seen similar declines.

 

[Nemo]

When's the DSiXL price cut happening? I bet stores will sell it for around a 100 then as it's only 130 euros now

 

[D.Lo]

That's what I think will happen. Tim Cook was hinting back in January that they are thinking about a big push for some sort of TV-based product, and there are a lot of rumours swirling about this. With the position they are in with iOS and Apple's focus on bringing the same sort of experience across their platforms, it would only be natural for gaming to play a part.

I'm still not sure, the ipad makes sense as a laptop/book replacement, and it's still not yet a strong games market by itself, it has the cross-platform advantage of the at this point much, much higher selling iphone. TV would be from scratch and would need content more quickly. I see it is the future, but if it takes 4 years to get up and running we'll be looking at the next-next gen by then.

There's also the iPod Touch pinching from...the side? Since Apple's products are convergence devices, it's hard to make direct correlations with gaming products.

And the 7.5 inch iPad Nano

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Well, on the Japanese front, it's pretty much nonexistent.
And I imagine Europe has seen similar declines.

No, Europe's still doing "okay". Japan tends to platform shift fastest and America slowest though, we saw the same thing with GBA.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It does not.

1.8m was until Mar, 2012.

They expect more 10m from Apr, 2012, to Mar, 2013.

For a LTD of 11.8m by Mar, 2013.

lol, well then the Vita projection looks even worse.

I wonder if Sony's planning to release the E1000 in America. I mean, that's still not going to get them close to 6m PSPs but they have to be planning something, right?

 

[Combichristoffersen]

lol, well then the Vita projection looks even worse.

I wonder if Sony's planning to release the E1000 in America. I mean, that's still not going to get them close to 6m PSPs but they have to be planning something, right?

They'll start packing the PSP in with cereals.

 

[iamshadowlark]

You used the word 'fad' to describe something that sold strongly for four years and will hit 100 million. That the Wii's lifecycle is over with an imminent successor long announced and almost all dev resources having been shifted to 3DS does not make it a retrospective fad.

If the Wii was a 'fad', the Xbox, 360, PS3, PSP, SNES, Genesis, NES and every other console ever released except PS1, PS2, Game Boy and DS were mere blips on the radar.

Fad maybe the wrong word but Wii's sales have dived off a cliff. That has to be worrying to nintendo going into the next generation. Even more-so than Sony.

You really can't see how? If the PSV was smashing the 3DS right now everyone would see it as a sign of a resurgent Sony.

What? How does that explain why PS4 will be in the same position the PSV is?

Microsoft has the funds to take another massive red hit to launch a mega-powerful console and take out the top 'tech' end. MS can do another PS3/360 'loss leader', Sony can not.

It really doesn't matter how much money MS has. Consoles are hitting a physical wall, one that can't simply be solved by throwing more money at it. This time around, both consoles have the same upper limits as far as power and Sony can afford that easily. The only way MS could really launch a console significantly more powerful than PS4 is:

A) Sony skimps on the specs nintendo style(not likely)

or

B) Microsoft releases a colossal box(possible but I doubt it)

or

C) Simply wait a year for smaller parts(Not a chance in hell)

The Wii is 32 million ahead os PS3, and the PS3 outsold the Wii by 4 million in the last year. At those rates it will take 8 more years. Realistically, it's likely the Wii has another 5-10 million in it total, and if PS3 does what Sony's projecting this year (13-14 million) it will still be more than 25 million behind well into the next generation. And losing systems don't keep selling into next generations. It's not going to happen.

"Losing systems"? The "losing systems" are selling quite a bit more than nintendo now days and both are due for price cuts. Sony has been keeping pace with MS this whole time despite having a higher BOE the whole time and the PS3 has yet to hit the mass market price. It is highly probable that the PS3 and probably even the 360 will have good life even when next gen hits. Nintendo not so much.

They didn't win the previous gen, haven't a chance in hell of making back what they initially lost on the PS3, and are in bad financial shape as a whole? The entire PS3 strategy was a market position and financial disaster.

What is your point? MS lost a crap load on Xbox 1(More than PS3 IIRC) and had alot worse sales than PS3 and look where they ended up.

PS3 did damage early on but has since made a 180 and became one of Sony's strongest assets these days. This business doesn't exist in a vacuum, hell no business does. Sony has been losing alot of money recently but they still have way more than enough to be competitive. Sony has alot of reasons to be glad that a new console cycle is coming.

 

[FrenchMovieTheme]

Is anyone but m$ making money? Sony and Nintendo losing money. For shame

 

[StevieP]

I wouldn't really call the Wii a best-selling console(even though it technically is) The Wii has had a very faddish shelf life and its sales are in no way comparable to earlier on in the cycle. I could definitely see one of the HD twins surpassing it when all is said and done. Also IIRC COD3 was the only major third party that sold more than the PS3.

The word fad cannot even be used to describe Kinect, let alone the Wii. A normal length cycle (about 5 years) is still a normal length cycle. Part of the reason for the extended cycle from the other 2 console manufactures is because of the massive trails of red ink that started the generation, and the length of time of which it took those consoles to get to consumer-friendly pricing. Of which, honestly, they're still not there. By the time they are, they'll be trailed off and we'll be discussing all 3 of the next generation of consoles.

Vita is doing terribly but Idk what that has todo with the PS3 or how they are comparable at all. And how is Microsoft pinching "from above"? If anything Sony/MS have been neck-and-neck this generation. And both of them can finish ahead of the Wii.

This is baseless. Neither the 360 or PS3 will end up with over 100 million units sold. They will sell an extremely respectable amount for 2nd/3rd place consoles, however.

Yep its not like it hasn't seen more growth this generation than ever before. Nope.

Ask jvm, Jokerpedia, or other sales-agers in regards to what exactly was single-handedly responsible for market growth this generation and why, as of about 2011, this massive industry growth has stopped.

 

[H_Prestige]

Both ps3 and 360 will continue getting new games and continue selling through next gen. Wii will not.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Is anyone but m$ making money? Sony and Nintendo losing money. For shame

MS entertainment division be losing money as well recently, due to other factors of course, but losing none the less

 

[Nightstick11]

Ask jvm, Jokerpedia, or other sales-agers in regards to what exactly was single-handedly responsible for market growth this generation and why, as of about 2011, this massive industry growth has stopped.

Playstation 3? Just joking. I think iamshadowlark is trolling.

 

[iamshadowlark]

This is baseless. Neither the 360 or PS3 will end up with over 100 million units sold. They will sell an extremely respectable amount for 2nd/3rd place consoles, however.

Maybe but it wouldn't be surprising. There is no guarantee that people will hop over to the new consoles when they launch and considering how the PS2 is still selling I will say it would be probable. There are quite a few price drops for the PS3/360 ahead.

Maybe but it wouldn't be surprising. There is no guarantee that people will hop over to the new consoles when they launch and considering how the PS2 is still selling I will say it would be probable. There are quite a few price drops for the PS3/360 ahead.

 

[confuziz]

Both ps3 and 360 will continue getting new games and continue selling through next gen. Wii will not.

Yeah.. about 1-2 million a year..

OT : So assuming the Vita is selling about 10-15k a week in Japan (Media Create/Famitsu), about 20k per week in europe (that one graph from nintendo a few pages back) and about 30k a week in USA (I expect about 120k-150k at April NPD) this thing is selling about 65k-70k max per week.

That means (without holidays etc) it is selling at a rate of 3.6~ million per year.

How much did they want to sell again?...

 

[iamshadowlark]

Yeah.. about 1-2 million a year..

OT : So assuming the Vita is selling about 10-15k a week in Japan (Media Create/Famitsu), about 20k per week in europe (that one graph from nintendo a few pages back) and about 30k a week in USA (I expect about 120k-150k at April NPD) this thing is selling about 65k-70k max per week.

That means (without holidays etc) it is selling at a rate of 3.6~ million per year.

How much did they want to sell again?...

Yeah, no. Maybe a few years and price drops in.

 

[jman2050]

Maybe but it wouldn't be surprising. There is no guarantee that people will hop over to the new consoles when they launch and considering how the PS2 is still selling I will say it would be probable. There are quite a few price drops for the PS3/360 ahead.

It's not going to happen.

 

[tuffy]

Fad maybe the wrong word but Wii's sales have dived off a cliff. That has to be worrying to nintendo going into the next generation. Even more-so than Sony.

The Wii's sales dived off a cliff once its 1st party releases ceased - presumably because Nintendo's studios started work on Wii U titles. Whether its next generation of hardware will be compelling depends on what they've developed in the meantime.

By contrast, Sony's success is more dependent on the 3rd party titles it brings on board and whether they're exclusive to its platform.

 

[iamshadowlark]

By contrast, Sony's success is more dependent on the 3rd party titles it brings on board and whether they're exclusive to its platform.

Since when? 3rd party exclusives don't really exist anymore save a few titles.

 

[H_Prestige]

Yes, developers and consumers will instantly jump to the new consoles overnight and ps3/360 will go from 13 million to 1 million a year simply because they're the "losers", and the "losers" always stop selling once the new gen hits. Let's also ignore the fact that both console haven't hit mass market prices and the fact they can be sold to a wider net of consumers because of all the extra gaming stuff they do.

 

[tuffy]

Since when? 3rd party exclusives don't really exist anymore save a few titles.

Monster Hunter's exclusivity to the PSP kept the platform competitive. In lieu of compelling 1st party output of their own, something similar from 3rd parties would be a big help to Sony's platforms, though obviously there's no example of such a title right now.

 

[onQ123]

I think the Gen is going to end pretty close between the Wii , PS3 & Xbox 360 ,


PS3 & Xbox 360 sold about 4 million more than the Wii this year after being outsold by it last year so next year we could see them out selling the Wii by more than 6 million if that keeps up for a few years we will see all 3 consoles in the 100M - 120M range.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

They'll start packing the PSP in with cereals.

Drop them in a box of frosted flakes and I am in.

 

[onQ123]

This is baseless. Neither the 360 or PS3 will end up with over 100 million units sold. They will sell an extremely respectable amount for 2nd/3rd place consoles, however.

do you understand that the PS2 just sold 4 million this year 6 years after the new generation of consoles started?


the PS3 is still priced at the price the Wii was at the beginning of this Gen & has a few price drops left to go

100 million is almost guaranteed for the PS3 at the same rate that it's selling now it's only 3 years away from 100 million. it's almost crazy to think that they can't reach 100 million.

 

[StevieP]

I think the Gen is going to end pretty close between the Wii , PS3 & Xbox 360 ,


PS3 & Xbox 360 sold about 4 million more than the Wii this year after being outsold by it last year so next year we could see them out selling the Wii by more than 6 million if that keeps up for a few years we will see all 3 consoles in the 100M - 120M range.

I'm not sure why this is even being entertained in this thread. The math doesn't add up even in the most generous circumstances. YoY declines across the board on NPD should tell you all you need to know.

do you understand that the PS2 just sold 4 million this year 6 years after the new generation of consoles started?

Nothing will ever be like the PS2 again. Ever.

 

[mboojigga]

do you understand that the PS2 just sold 4 million this year 6 years after the new generation of consoles started?


the PS3 is still priced at the price the Wii was at the beginning of this Gen & has a few price drops left to go

100 million is almost guaranteed for the PS3 at the same rate that it's selling now it's only 3 years away from 100 million. it's almost crazy to think that they can't reach 100 million.

Damn your leaving a lot of information out to assume it can just comfortably reach 100 million in that time frame. Like you are completely ignoring or in denial about the status of the current gen trend.

 

[Celine]

Since when? 3rd party exclusives don't really exist anymore save a few titles.

Since this past generation.
That's how MS cockblocked Sony.

 

[Miles X]

I think the Gen is going to end pretty close between the Wii , PS3 & Xbox 360 ,


PS3 & Xbox 360 sold about 4 million more than the Wii this year after being outsold by it last year so next year we could see them out selling the Wii by more than 6 million if that keeps up for a few years we will see all 3 consoles in the 100M - 120M range.

Gap for 360 and Wii is 27.7m as of March 31st, a price cut (which has to come this year surely) will likely mean at least 13m shipped this year (still a drop of 2m). Wii will do around 5m it's been dropping around 5m a year since its peak and that's around what nintendo expect (not that they're good at forecasting, they seem to adjust down every quater) So the likely hood is 360 outsells Wii this year by about 8m, leading to a sub 20m lead for Wii.

2013 Wii will almost be dead, selling 2/3m if it's lucky. No idea for 360 though, it could start to tank that year doing 7/8m or it could prove to be a good legacy console at $99 ala PS2 and sell OK in its twilight years.

I'd bet against it overtaking the Wii if asked today, but wouldn't completely rule it out. Obviously this all goes for PS3 as well seen as it's likely to pull ahead of 360.

One thing is for sure, 360 will be #1 in America. Likely this year.

 

[Deadbeat]

Nothing will ever be like the PS2 again. Ever.

Its not wise to say ever. For a long time? Definitely. But ever? hmmm.

I still wait the day for the ps2 to hit 50 dollars. My fat ps2 is struggling with some disks.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Let's also ignore the fact that both console haven't hit mass market prices

360 has been under $200 for nearly 4 years now.

 

[iamshadowlark]

Since this past generation.
That's how MS cockblocked Sony.

Early on sure. But today, unless the console holder is paying big bucks you won't be seeing many third party exclusives if at all.

 

[sixteen-bit]

I still wait the day for the ps2 to hit 50 dollars. My fat ps2 is struggling with some disks.

I wonder if they phase it out before a $50 price point ever happens

 

[specialguy]

I'm not sure why this is even being entertained in this thread. The math doesn't add up even in the most generous circumstances. YoY declines across the board on NPD should tell you all you need to know.

Sure it does. Lets take 360 (same applies to PS3). We see last fiscal year it was ~14m vs ~10m Wii? Total LTD about 67m vs 96m (Wii+29m)? Just do something like this:

FY12 14m 360 vs 5m Wii (likely 360 price cut this year bolstering sales, Wii U launch in fall cutting off Wii)
FY13 10m 360 vs 1m Wii
FY14 8m 360 vs 0m Wii
FY15 4m 360 vs 0m Wii

This gives us 360+30m and puts it over the top.

This assumes something a PS2 like tail for 360 (not unreasonable) and Wii falling of a cliff (also not unreasonable given it's sales trends and Nintendo's likely desire to kill it off completely with Wii U)

Will it happen like that? unknown, but it's certainly possible. It'll take us years to settle this debate, though. It'll be a challenge, I admit.

 

[nluckett]

No one is yelling "3rd party" in here? Man, I am disappointed in you Gaf.

 

[onQ123]

I'm not sure why this is even being entertained in this thread. The math doesn't add up even in the most generous circumstances. YoY declines across the board on NPD should tell you all you need to know.



Nothing will ever be like the PS2 again. Ever.

NPD is not the whole world & it's just stupid to even think that , PS3 only sold like 400K less this year than it did last year & the 360 sold 300K more this year than it did last year

there is a new GTA & COD game coming in the next FY for both consoles Halo 4 , God of War 4 & more coming for them alone & maybe price drops so it's a big chance that the consoles will both sell around 13 - 15 million this FY which would bring them to around 80 million in 2013 before their new consoles even come out which would mean that they would only have to sell around 20 million after the PS4 & Xbox Next comes out , so even if that drop is to around 7 million a year for them after the new consoles that's still only 3 years of post New Generation sells for them to reach 100m

Damn your leaving a lot of information out to assume it can just comfortably reach 100 million in that time frame. Like you are completely ignoring or in denial about the status of the current gen trend.

what information am I leaving out? what current gen trend?

FY 2010 PS3 14.3 Xbox 360 13.3


FY 2011 PS3 13.9 Xbox 360 13.6

what the hell are you talking about?

 

[ascii42]

I wonder if they phase it out before a $50 price point ever happens

Probably. It's not easy to buy a new PS2 anymore.

 

[Clear]

Sure it does. Lets take 360 (same applies to PS3). We see last fiscal year it was ~14m vs ~10m Wii? Total LTD about 67m vs 96m (Wii+29m)? Just do something like this:

FY12 14m 360 vs 5m Wii (likely 360 price cut this year bolstering sales, Wii U launch in fall cutting off Wii)
FY13 10m 360 vs 1m Wii
FY14 8m 360 vs 0m Wii
FY15 4m 360 vs 0m Wii

This gives us 360+30m and puts it over the top.

This assumes something a PS2 like tail for 360 (not unreasonable) and Wii falling of a cliff (also not unreasonable given it's sales trends and Nintendo's likely desire to kill it off completely with Wii U)

Will it happen like that? unknown, but it's certainly possible. It'll take us years to settle this debate, though. It'll be a challenge, I admit.

I'd argue its possible for PS3 to break 100m eventually, 360 though... very doubtful.

The reason is simply that the 360's popularity is centred on 2 large territories (NA + UK), neither of which is a good candidate for long-term sales. Sony's strategy with PS2 has been to push it out to emerging markets, something it appears to me that MS has yet to really try, and especially given the heavy amounts of region-restricted stuff (XBL service content, Kinect language support) doesn't seem likely in the future.

The key issue to me seems whether or not the online-service aspects of the platforms are a benefit or a hindrance to their life-spans. It could go either way based on running costs versus profitability.