Sony FY2011: $5.5B Loss; PS3 is #1 despite Thai Flood

Taker666

Member
Not releasing the standalone vita numbers means it must be bad.

No way they are going to meet that prediction of PSP & Vita sales. Not a chance!!!

I don't know. All it might take is 1 or 2 of the right games.

I bet a bunch of core Sony fans would leap to buy a Vita if all it got were ports of the 3DS Resident Evil,Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts games.

6 month old ports of them would probably boost Vita sales more than they boosted the 3DS when they were new.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
I don't know. All it might take is 1 or 2 of the right games.

I bet a bunch of core Sony fans would leap to buy a Vita if all it got were ports of the 3DS Resident Evil,Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts games.

6 month old ports of them would probably boost Vita sales more than they boosted the 3DS when they were new.

That at most solves Japan, doesn't really solve the rest of the world unless your counting on COD alone, and getting Japanese developers to move resources to the Vita when it's selling so badly and still doesn't even have an install base of 1 million depite a Christmas is not going to be easy. Your going to need games to kickstart those sales with a price cut, but you won't get those games if the Vita continues to sell so badly. It's a vicious cycle.

Unless TGS is a god send of Vita announcements, the current amount of game anouncements for the Vita since launch has been barren, with no block buster games that would bolster other third party interest.
 

mclem

Member
It's all good, they'll just blame the latest natural disaster or war or whatever crisis in the world for their missing the target. Funny how Nintendo, MS, Apple, Samsung etc,... don't seem to ever be as affected.

I'm not sure relying on the Mayans being right is an effective long-term business strategy.
 
A shame. Maybe this could be factored in somehow.
Or at least this graph could be updated:
Absolutely no point. The numbers would have no reflection on reality. For better or worse Sony decided to throw the figures into a much bigger pot and we're likely never to be able to get them out again. At least aside from the occasional quarter where they focus specifically on just the game aspect.

Any chance of you tinkering with the comprehensive financials of the big three?
See above. Same goes for Microsoft, especially now with Windows Phone messing up the overall division.
 

mclem

Member
I don't think a console-like CoD on a mobile platform is going to launch it into heaven or anything like that. Has to be something else. Like a price cut maybe?
To be fair, it doesn't really matter if it *will* do that; what matters is if they *think* it will. That'd account for those numbers.
 
PS2 still moved 4 million 6 years after the new generation of consoles started & if it wasn't for the holiday bump it would be neck & neck with the wii this FY that's amazing.

If this isn't solid proof that Nintendo made he right choice by not making the Wii an HD system, I dunno what would be. Ignore the analysts, folks.
 

Road

Member
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A shame. Maybe this could be factored in somehow.
Or at least this graph could be updated:
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I'm waiting to see if anything is mentioned in the presentation audio, but according to that plan Kaz showed a month ago, FY12 should be blue with a 100 and something number.
 

Elios83

Member
The most interesting thing is the PSVita+PSP forecast, which should account at least for 10m PSVitas and 6m PSPs (depending on how much they expect PSP to decline this year it could be even more shifted towards the PSVita).
That basically confirms that they expect a recover similar to what happened to PS3, there will be a price cut, there will be major games coming this year. So yeah, I guess that the convention season (E3, Gamecom, TGS) will be rich of Vita announcements.
As for PS3 they probably expect an other 14m units this year with 2 extra millions for PS2. Considering that sales for every consoles have been declining this year and that last year the holiday season was kinda weak, I expect a price adjustement to 199$ for PS3 too to keep the sales level the same.
 
The most interesting thing is the PSVita+PSP forecast, which should account at least for 10m PSVitas and 6m PSPs (depending on how much they expect PSP to decline this year it could be even more shifted towards the PSVita).
That basically confirms that they expect a recover similar to what happened to PS3, there will be a price cut, there will be major games coming this year. So yeah, I guess that the convention season (E3, Gamecom, TGS) will be rich of Vita announcements.
As for PS3 they probably expect an other 14m units this year with 2 extra millions for PS2. Considering that sales for every consoles have been declining this year and that last year the holiday season was kinda weak, I expect a price adjustement to 199$ for PS3 too to keep the sales level the same.

PSP is tracking significantly better than Vita in its home territory Japan. I don't see this being significantly different anywhere else, otherwise Sony WOULD have shown the figures! So really you have just made those figures up.

In February this year it had sold 1.2 million...
http://www.metro.co.uk/tech/games/891616-ps-vita-worldwide-sales-at-1-2-million


Also why on earth would the PS3 cut again? Thats bonkers economics, they cut once and sales fell anyway. Just need to accept the market is tightening. Dropping prices will only help retailers - not Sony.


Also those quarertly PSP sales are...dreadful...they are collapsing even with the new console. Before the Vita is launched sales are up. Then its launch - they die...also correlating with the 3DS price cut ofc.
 
I wonder what parts of the company they're planning on selling.

Sony have a baseline profitability of about $1.5bn a year because their financial services division is just that profitable. The consumer and pro side is break even at best, it neither loses nor makes money. Without the non-cash charges of $5bn the bottom line wouldn't look so bad and really the only division that loses money is TVs and Kaz has pretty much said Sony will back out of TVs if they keep losing money in it.

If Sony manage to cut the TV losses they will have a baseline profitability of around $3bn a year, if they can't and need to cut it entirely they will take a one off charge of around $4bn to jettison the business but it cuts out $1.5bn worth of annual losses.

Other than that Sony are looking competitive in phones, and if they are going to make a Vita Phone then I expect their position to get even better as the hardware inside the Vita is pretty advanced and as Sony/Toshiba bring their own 28/32nm foundries online they will be able to control costs for the Vita SoC.

Finally, in order to properly compete, all Japanese electronics companies will have to consolidate. At Sony I would look at merging with Toshiba as there are a lot of synergies to be had. Toshiba have a stronger laptops division, but Sony Vaio is a stronger brand. Toshiba could exit TVs altogether as it is a big money loser for them, Toshiba would become the overnight market leader in image sensors and processors, Sony would gain access to cutting edge lithography tech to push it harder. From a business point of view, a merger between these two old rivals makes a lot of sense, but I'm not sure it would be palatable to the management as it would be a massive climbdown for both boards. Neither company is particularly profitable and Toshiba are going to have a massive loss associated with their buyout of Westinghouse Power as the demand for nuclear reactors has be destroyed since the Fukushima disaster.

What I would like to see is the Japanese government enabling a merger and then taking an interest in the merged company giving it $20-30bn worth of capital for investment so that they can properly compete with Samsung. It would be almost free for the Japanese government who borrow at just 1% a year and the investment would pay for itself with dividends paid out and with the rise in value that the shares would see. Right now the situation for Japanese industry is desperate and the government needs to step in with more initiatives like JDI Inc. If they don't I can see one of Panasonic, Sharp, Sony or Pioneer going bankrupt. Probably two, my guesses would be Sharp and Panasonic.
 

Ashes

Banned
What I would like to see is the Japanese government enabling a merger and then taking an interest in the merged company giving it $20-30bn worth of capital for investment so that they can properly compete with Samsung. It would be almost free for the Japanese government who borrow at just 1% a year and the investment would pay for itself with dividends paid out and with the rise in value that the shares would see. Right now the situation for Japanese industry is desperate and the government needs to step in with more initiatives like JDI Inc. If they don't I can see one of Panasonic, Sharp, Sony or Pioneer going bankrupt. Probably two, my guesses would be Sharp and Panasonic.

Sharp's doing well last I heard. Panasonic are about to turn this year. And pioneer is... Well let's just say If anyone's going down. It's sony.
 
Sharp's doing well last I heard.

Sharp just went begging to Hon Hai (Foxconn) for capital. They are in very bad shape.

Panasonic are not about to turn it around, they are in very, very bad shape at the moment. Of all the Japanese consumer electronics companies, Toshiba is in the best shape and Panasonic are in the worst. None are in what I would call good condition though.

If any company can turn it around it is probably Sony and that is mostly because they have massive financial services profits and because they are in industries that allow for huge profit potential (smartphones, gaming, SLR cameras). Also with Olympus looking at taking the offer from Sony I'm not sure how it will effect the m4/3rds camera mount. Without Zuiko lenses the whole ecosystem becomes worthless to professionals which is where the real money is.

Trust me, Panasonic are not in good shape. That's not to say Sony is in good shape, just that Panasonic are not "about to turn". They are far from it. In fact where Sony have recognised the problems in the business and are trying to change, Panasonic have decided that the solution to their problems is more of the same. Anyway, we will see the lay of the land tonight when Panasonic release their earnings data. It won't be a pretty sight and, like Sony, their 2012/13 forecast should be taken with a massive sack of salt.
 

Elios83

Member
PSP is tracking significantly better than Vita in its home territory Japan. I don't see this being significantly different anywhere else, otherwise Sony WOULD have shown the figures! So really you have just made those figures up.

In February this year it had sold 1.2 million...
http://www.metro.co.uk/tech/games/891616-ps-vita-worldwide-sales-at-1-2-million


Also why on earth would the PS3 cut again? Thats bonkers economics, they cut once and sales fell anyway. Just need to accept the market is tightening. Dropping prices will only help retailers - not Sony.


Also those quarertly PSP sales are...dreadful...they are collapsing even with the new console. Before the Vita is launched sales are up. Then its launch - they die...also correlating with the 3DS price cut ofc.

I honestly don't know what's your point, first you seem to think that PSP is gonna sell better than Vita next year and then you call PSP sales dreadful.
Btw Hirai said that they shipped 1.8m Vitas last year and for 2012 the intended volumes are around 10m Vitas and 6m PSPs.
He also said that they will reinforce Vita software because software is key to sucess and that titles will be announced one after the other.


http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-05-10-sony-earnings-call-reveals-worldwide-ps-vita-sales

As for PS3, sales are down year on year, although it's the best selling console worldwide atm, last year's holiday season was weak at the current price, so to keep sales at the same level they have to make a price adjustement. Of course such price drops are planned and depend on the manufacturing costs they expect to achieve with hardware redesigns, so it's not like they're going to lose money on PS3.
 
As for PS3, sales are down year on year, although it's the best selling console worldwide atm, last year's holiday season was weak at the current price, so to keep sales at the same level they have to make a price adjustement. Of course such price drops are planned and depend on the manufacturing costs they expect to achieve with hardware redesigns, so it's not like they're going to lose money on PS3.

While I would love to see a super-slim. Don't expect one. If Sony/IBM want to shrink the Cell it needs a full chip redesign which would be very expensive. Not only that, but the RSX is pretty much at the limits of die shrinks without a heavy redesign. Sony would have to invest a lot of money on making a combined chip with two IMCs for two different types of RAM if they are going to make a super-slim. I wouldn't rule it out, but I also wouldn't count on one.

If they do it, I expect a combined 32nm chip and externalised PSU with 20GB NAND for £149/$199, but really the cost of development probably outweigh the benefits if PS4 truly is coming in a year or less.
 

Jibbed

Member
With numbers like that, I really wouldn't expect a Playstation 4.

How have they been operating like this for so long?
 

Mario007

Member
-First party titles-

GT better be one of them

He also acknowledges collaboration with third party,which means they're still on board. This all seems like the exact same thing Iwata was saying a year ago around this time actually.

Btw does anyone have the full transcript to the Q&A? I'm kinda interested in hearing some specifics about their mobile divisions too. All I got from today's announcements is that they want to sell 33 million devices next year, up from 22 million. Not even a word on the profit or loss for the last quarter.
 
I honestly don't know what's your point, first you seem to think that PSP is gonna sell better than Vita next year and then you call PSP sales dreadful.
Btw Hirai said that they shipped 1.8m Vitas last year and for 2012 the intended volumes are around 10m Vitas and 6m PSPs.
He also said that they will reinforce Vita software because software is key to sucess and that titles will be announced one after the other.


http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2012-05-10-sony-earnings-call-reveals-worldwide-ps-vita-sales

As for PS3, sales are down year on year, although it's the best selling console worldwide atm, last year's holiday season was weak at the current price, so to keep sales at the same level they have to make a price adjustement. Of course such price drops are planned and depend on the manufacturing costs they expect to achieve with hardware redesigns, so it's not like they're going to lose money on PS3.

1.8 million shipped?

Sell through is ~700k in Japan and ~600k US (after today's NPD report), leaving ~500k in total shipments for Asia, Canada, and PAL territories.
 
With numbers like that, I really wouldn't expect a Playstation 4.

Considering that the PS division is probably the most profitable non-financial division Sony have at the moment I think you are wrong. The $2.8bn loss in their consumer division is all down to their TV division which took a $1.2bn charge and loss of earnings down to selling TVs below cost. Our bank estimates that including the $1.2bn charge that Sony's TV division lost around $3.5bn (wiping out profits from other products within the CPS division) but since the details of intradivision splits are not made public we won't know.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
The 3DS didn't even get the number or perhaps barely and that was after a $80 price cut 2 mario's and MH in Japan and the Vita's barely doing half as well as the 3ds is at launch. The reason why people say they are bullshit, is because unless, the Vita jumps up to doing far better than the 3DS is now, (and it's currently doing god awful anywhere bar maybe america), then it's just not possible. Not even an $80 price would make them do those numbers, unless COD Vita becomes a phenomenon and becomes the next mario.

They didn't even release the Vita's numbers for this fiscal quarter...
Keep in mind that the 16 million number also include the PSP. This will probably count for a few million units. But i dont think that they just took this number out of thin air. I think that this number shows that they have some sale plan on how to achieve it. That doesnt mean it will happen of course, but at least it shows that they have a reason to believe in these types of sales numbers.
 

Jibbed

Member
Considering that the PS division is probably the most profitable non-financial division Sony have at the moment I think you are wrong. The $2.8bn loss in their consumer division is all down to their TV division which took a $1.2bn charge and loss of earnings down to selling TVs below cost. Our bank estimates that including the $1.2bn charge that Sony's TV division lost around $3.5bn (wiping out profits from other products within the CPS division) but since the details of intradivision splits are not made public we won't know.

Yeah, fair enough then. You seem well informed! This is why I love GAF.
 

Spiegel

Member
He also acknowledges collaboration with third party,which means they're still on board.

Yes, Fifa 13, Madden 13, Street Fighter X Tekken, Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed are still coming.

I will believe that they are still on board when they show something from CoD, AC and more games are announced.
 

Elios83

Member
While I would love to see a super-slim. Don't expect one. If Sony/IBM want to shrink the Cell it needs a full chip redesign which would be very expensive. Not only that, but the RSX is pretty much at the limits of die shrinks without a heavy redesign. Sony would have to invest a lot of money on making a combined chip with two IMCs for two different types of RAM if they are going to make a super-slim. I wouldn't rule it out, but I also wouldn't count on one.

If they do it, I expect a combined 32nm chip and externalised PSU with 20GB NAND for £149/$199, but really the cost of development probably outweigh the benefits if PS4 truly is coming in a year or less.

Infact I don't expect a full external redesign, but they can still cut costs in other ways like they have down for the past couple years.
A super slim needs a Cell+RSX chip to happen and they need the 28nm process (which they're going to use in PS4) up and running to do that since they have skipped the 32nm production line.
 
I honestly don't know what's your point, first you seem to think that PSP is gonna sell better than Vita next year and then you call PSP sales dreadful.

Quarterly PSP sales are PSP+Vita - that is my point. Despite a new console they drop year-on-year after doing well in Q1/Q2 before the Vita launch/3DS price cut.

As for PS3, sales are down year on year, although it's the best selling console worldwide atm, last year's holiday season was weak at the current price, so to keep sales at the same level they have to make a price adjustement. Of course such price drops are planned and depend on the manufacturing costs they expect to achieve with hardware redesigns, so it's not like they're going to lose money on PS3.

So because its selling better than any other console...it needs to cut its price...
They did cut it - last year! Before the holiday season. Sales still fell. The market is tightening/drying up.

Anyway how on earth do you know they are planning all this stuff for a price adjustment? Do you really think companies don't want to keep costs down even if there prices are high? Its called mark up.
 

Mario007

Member
Yes, Fifa 13, Madden 13, Street Fighter X Tekken, Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed are still coming.

I will believe that they are still on board when they show something from CoD, AC and more games are announced.

Also isn't Metal Gear Rising supposed to be coming too? here's a link that suggests so: http://www.kotaku.com.au/2012/04/does-this-mean-metal-gear-solid-rising-is-coming-to-vita/

But you're right there needs to be another onslaught of third party titles. If sony manages to get EA on board, then that'll be a very positive sign. We'll have to see I guess.

Also at least a concept for Bioshock Vita would be great too.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!

Mario007

Member
Quarterly PSP sales are PSP+Vita - that is my point. Despite a new console they drop year-on-year after doing well in Q1/Q2 before the Vita launch/3DS price cut.



So because its selling better than any other console...it needs to cut its price...
They did cut it - last year! Before the holiday season. Sales still fell. The market is tightening/drying up.

Anyway how on earth do you know they are planning all this stuff for a price adjustment? Do you really think companies don't want to keep costs down even if there prices are high? Its called mark up.

Last year SCEE boss specifically mentioned that part of the success of the PS2 was the low price point later on in its life. I think he said it was around 150 pounds. He then went on to say they that ps3 is not there yet, but they're getting there. This was part of the 'turn ps3 family friendly' interview.
 

Elios83

Member
Quarterly PSP sales are PSP+Vita - that is my point. Despite a new console they drop year-on-year after doing well in Q1/Q2 before the Vita launch/3DS price cut.



So because its selling better than any other console...it needs to cut its price...
They did cut it - last year! Before the holiday season. Sales still fell. The market is tightening/drying up.

Anyway how on earth do you know they are planning all this stuff for a price adjustment? Do you really think companies don't want to keep costs down even if there prices are high? Its called mark up.

No those quarterly sales are not PSP+Vita, that's just the PSP.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdatapsp_sale_e.html

Vita was not included in the results although they said in the conference call that they shipped 1.8m in the fiscal year.
As for PS3, they cut manufacturing costs every year, if they believe that the extra sales they'll get by cutting the price will more than offset the smaller margin they'll cut the price, otherwise not. My impression based on their forecast is that if they expect sales level to be the same of last year (around 14m) considering that sales are going down yoy and that even last year's holiday season was weak at the current price (so an other year at the same price would be terrible), they plan to make a price adjustement. Also.... 6 years after launch it's due time for the PS3 to be 199$.
 

PerZona

Member
Sony have a baseline profitability of about $1.5bn a year because their financial services division is just that profitable. The consumer and pro side is break even at best, it neither loses nor makes money. Without the non-cash charges of $5bn the bottom line wouldn't look so bad and really the only division that loses money is TVs and Kaz has pretty much said Sony will back out of TVs if they keep losing money in it.

If Sony manage to cut the TV losses they will have a baseline profitability of around $3bn a year, if they can't and need to cut it entirely they will take a one off charge of around $4bn to jettison the business but it cuts out $1.5bn worth of annual losses.

Other than that Sony are looking competitive in phones, and if they are going to make a Vita Phone then I expect their position to get even better as the hardware inside the Vita is pretty advanced and as Sony/Toshiba bring their own 28/32nm foundries online they will be able to control costs for the Vita SoC.

Finally, in order to properly compete, all Japanese electronics companies will have to consolidate. At Sony I would look at merging with Toshiba as there are a lot of synergies to be had. Toshiba have a stronger laptops division, but Sony Vaio is a stronger brand. Toshiba could exit TVs altogether as it is a big money loser for them, Toshiba would become the overnight market leader in image sensors and processors, Sony would gain access to cutting edge lithography tech to push it harder. From a business point of view, a merger between these two old rivals makes a lot of sense, but I'm not sure it would be palatable to the management as it would be a massive climbdown for both boards. Neither company is particularly profitable and Toshiba are going to have a massive loss associated with their buyout of Westinghouse Power as the demand for nuclear reactors has be destroyed since the Fukushima disaster.

What I would like to see is the Japanese government enabling a merger and then taking an interest in the merged company giving it $20-30bn worth of capital for investment so that they can properly compete with Samsung. It would be almost free for the Japanese government who borrow at just 1% a year and the investment would pay for itself with dividends paid out and with the rise in value that the shares would see. Right now the situation for Japanese industry is desperate and the government needs to step in with more initiatives like JDI Inc. If they don't I can see one of Panasonic, Sharp, Sony or Pioneer going bankrupt. Probably two, my guesses would be Sharp and Panasonic.

Totally agree with you, the Japanese industry are looking pretty bleak. Not only electronics but I even their cars too.

Major electronics companies that you that had mentioned are all getting owned by Samsung, and that's not a good thing. Hope that the Japanese govt help them somehow. I believe that Sony would be the quickest to recover though.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
I still think this last years PS3 sales are steady; you cannot ignore the PSN hack crisis which would have severely undermined consumer confidence globally in Q1/11.

I mean if you look at the numbers Q1 really stands out as the only one with a severe YoY drop, a full 25% drop is hurtful, and who knows how long the afteraffects lingered for in the market.
 
No those quarterly sales are not PSP+Vita, that's just the PSP.

http://scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdatapsp_sale_e.html

Vita was not included in the results although they said in the conference call that they shipped 1.8m in the fiscal year.
As for PS3, they cut manufacturing costs every year, if they believe that the extra sales they'll get by cutting the price will more than offset the smaller margin they'll cut the price, otherwise not. My impression based on their forecast is that if they expect sales level to be the same of last year (around 14m) considering that sales are going down yoy and that even last year's holiday season was weak at the current price (so an other year at the same price would be terrible), they plan to make a price adjustement. Also.... 6 years after launch it's due time for the PS3 to be 199$.

Ignore me :D
 

ascii42

Member
Totally agree with you, the Japanese industry are looking pretty bleak. Not only electronics but I even their cars too.

Major electronics companies that you that had mentioned are all getting owned by Samsung, and that's not a good thing. Hope that the Japanese govt help them somehow. I believe that Sony would be the quickest to recover though.

A big part of the problem for Japenese companies is the strong yen. These things are cyclical. If things continue to go bad for Japan, the yen should weaken again. Then Japanese companies should find it easier to be profitable.
 

BigDug13

Member
The "Sony Playstation" brand is no longer the icon it once was and everyone knows it. I loved my PS1, PS2, PS3, and PSP, but today is a different game than 1995 with much more aggressive competition hitting home runs.

Gone are the days of squeezing SEGA out of the industry and competing with Nintendo stuck in cartridge-land.

I hope Sony stays in it, but they definitely have an uphill battle when their entire company is hurting financially like it is. One of their saving graces is that Japan will simply not buy a Microsoft game system and Nintendo does not compete directly with them in the same types of games. But can Japan's unwillingness to buy from Microsoft continue to keep Sony as a potential front runner?
 
A big part of the problem for Japenese companies is the strong yen. These things are cyclical. If things continue to go bad for Japan, the yen should weaken again. Then Japanese companies should find it easier to be profitable.

Yen is a safehouse currency. When the world economy turns to shit the Yen always strengthens, when the world economy gets better the Yen weakens. Yen is counter-cyclical, which makes for tough going in industry.
 
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