AdmiralViscen
Banned
IAmNude said:why not?
Does this even have to be explained? Sales, variety of library, mainstream accessibility, etc etc.
IAmNude said:why not?
Xbox said:No manufacturer has been number one in the console space for more than 2 generations in a row.
I have come to the conclusion that in this geosphere of gaming that we are now residing in only the fit will survive. Therefore I foresee the Bull Shark being top shark next gen. It can both swim in salt water and fresh water. Plus it eats everything, even the competition.
Can I play this "Ecosystem" game you speak of?
AdmiralViscen said:Does this even have to be explained? Sales, variety of library, mainstream accessibility, etc etc.
rastex
He's an Xbox.
(Today, 08:39 PM)
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BamYouHaveAids said:No succesful console has ever been $399 either.
iapetus said:Not even a marketer would extrapolate from so few data points.
Bebpo said:Indeed the X360 has won the next-gen war in NA through November 2006!
Bebpo said:Indeed the X360 has won the next-gen war in NA through November 2006!
Speevy said:I think the PS3 will probably pass on a worldwide basis pretty quickly, but here in the US it might actually be slower than the stalemate the DS and PSP were in.
If the 360 has a 2 million unit lead at the end of this year in North America, let's just make up some crazy numbers.
January 07:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
February 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
March 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
April:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
etc. until the end of October let's say. The PS3 would JUST make up that 2 million by holidays.
Keep in mind that the actual lead (in the US) will be a bit higher, and the actual totals month-to-month almost certainly won't be that extreme.
This is going to be a SLOW war in North America.
Speevy said:I think the PS3 will probably pass on a worldwide basis pretty quickly, but here in the US it might actually be slower than the stalemate the DS and PSP were in.
If the 360 has a 2 million unit lead at the end of this year in North America, let's just make up some crazy numbers.
January 07:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
February 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
March 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
April:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
etc. until the end of October let's say. The PS3 would JUST make up that 2 million by holidays.
Keep in mind that the actual lead (in the US) will be a bit higher, and the actual totals month-to-month almost certainly won't be that extreme.
This is going to be a SLOW war in North America.
xbox said:Less people that cost more money make developing a PS3 game are more expensive and riskier proposition.
dyls said:This was the first sentence I saw when I clicked the link.
It was also the last.
IAmNude said:errrrr. ps3 games are harder and more costly to make
IAmNude said:errrrr. ps3 games are harder and more costly to make
Ajax said:More costly than 360? Where exactly did you hear that?
IAmNude said:several devs, and many analysts talk about how it's more expensive
IAmNude said:several devs, and many analysts talk about how it's more expensive
Ajax said:Can you give a link? It's the first time I hear something like that.
Ajax said:Can you give a link? It's the first time I hear something like that.
IAmNude said:I knew you'd ask for it, but i cant really find it from searching anyway. It was usually just added into the interview or whatever. The whole articles werent specifically about it.
ACE said:Ecosystem of a game console? **** me!: lol :lol :lol :lol :lol
MidgarBlowedUp said:Oh don't laugh it's true. My Xbox gets so little playtime that it has it's own ecosystem. Last I checked there was a spider with it's cobweb covering the top of the case, and some cockroaches and bugs living inside the case. Yesterday, I placed a small soucer filled with water on the drive tray for the misquitos.
Amir0x said:While the conclusion of your article is totally plausible, the actual points you make are not a strong case in the least. A "healthy ecosystem", by your definition, is new retail releases, demos, etc - all of which PS3 and Wii will have. Wii's virtual console by definition will keep the thing having a 'healthy ecosystem', and you can be damn sure Sony is going to leverage its movie business and music business to suppliment its "healthy ecosystem" as well. And they are all going to have killer apps and constant retail releases.
rastex said:First off, don't take the history argument too seriously, that was just a little cheeky side thing I threw in cause I knew it would get people talking.
rastex said:Now, as for the PS3 and Wii, I think both will suffer from the "N64 effect". That is where you have some amazing amazing AAA games that are released sporadically, but you don't have the lower-tier games to fill in the gaps.
rastex said:And you can't look at each point individually it's the combination of them all that provides my case. Even if the PS3 launches with an exact replica of Xbox Live (which I highly doubt will happen) it won't be as effective since the 360 already has a very active, involved and spend-crazy user base. From looking at the sales numbers and how many games the 360 audience is buying, I feel that Microsoft has captured the most important audience in the game market. These are the people that buy the niche titles which means that developers will MAKE those niche titles filling in those gaps between the blockbuster releases. A healthy ecosystem.
Actually I do address the install base issue. The point being that the 360 has captured the most important segment of the gaming population that I feel is the engine of platform success.Stumpokapow said:The potential for revenue on a game depends on two factors. The article addresses one: development costs.
The other is install base and ownership demographic of the console, and since we have no idea about the install base or ownership demographic of a console that hasn't been released, we have no idea whether or not the potential for revenue is going to be higher or lower on the 360.
I have my reasons for why I don't think the Wii will be a stellar success, which I'll write about next. However those reasons are pretty different from the PS3 and I wanted to make the article as short as possible. Plus I'm not as confident in my predictions of the Wii's reception in the marketBesides, you didn't address the Wii at all. The only arguments in the quoted section deal with development costs, and the Wii clearly has the lowest development costs. You even mention in the article that you're ignoring the Wii.
I explained why the PS3 isn't going to work in NA. You can choose to believe those reasons or not, but the same goes for the rest of the article. I honestly think that what Sony has done in pricing the PS3 is an absolute colossal mistake. This issue has been covered ad nauseum so there was no point in me repeating stuff that everybody has read a million times already.Basically, your article boils down to this:
0. Let's ignore the Wii.
1. The 360 has done ok so far
2. The Playstation isn't going to work.
...
Conclusion: The 360 has won.
The problem is that step 2 depends entirely on whether or not the Playstation 3 succeeds, and so the article is really nothing but "Go 360!"
Point 2 is based on year old information and my own experience developing for PS2 and Xbox.Point 2 is based on information you don't have, point 4 depends on developers, point 5 ignores that Sony might have a live-style marketplace thing, 7 ignores that Sony will likely have microtransactions, points 8 and 9 just say "360 fans are good fans", and point 10 doesn't say anything at all.
rastex said:These are the people that buy the niche titles which means that developers will MAKE those niche titles filling in those gaps between the blockbuster releases. A healthy ecosystem.
Amir0x said:There is literally zero support for your argument. PS3 already has over 160 games announced for it, 78 of which are exclusive (and actually, this number hasn't been updated in a bit - it's larger now). And that's before the thing is even out.
Wii has over 120 games announced, and 60 of those are exclusive. This is faaar more support than any "N64-like" system would have initially if your theory had an even remote chance of being true. Further, these are only partial lists of announced games - TGS will have many more for both PS3 and Wii. Clearly, the case for this is very weak.
Ya, you're right that there are a lot of assumptions made on my part. I don't KNOW the size of this "hardcore" audience. But I'm guessing it's in the low millions, and I'm guessing that a lot of them have bought into the 360. And I'm also guessing (more educated though) that the number of people in general, and in this "hardcore" audience that own multiple consoles is a very small percentage.Again, there is no evidence that healthy ecosystems won't grow equally on the other systems. The theory that somehow, in the 4 million(?) units Microsoft has sold worldwide, they've captured an entire audience is absurd.
...
So, really, I'd say your argument relies only on faith and not reality.
Amir0x said:While the conclusion of your article is totally plausible, the actual points you make are not a strong case in the least. A "healthy ecosystem", by your definition, is new retail releases, demos, etc - all of which PS3 and Wii will have. Wii's virtual console by definition will keep the thing having a 'healthy ecosystem', and you can be damn sure Sony is going to leverage its movie business and music business to suppliment its "healthy ecosystem" as well. And they are all going to have killer apps and constant retail releases.
Your historical argument is really ludicrous. Guys, there is no such things as curses. If you're going to have an entire basis for why this should be happening, you've gotta have more than "well, it happened twice before - maybe three now!" Even if Sony tumbled now, which I believe will likely happen, it won't be because God or Satan wrote a rule saying no company could rule for more than two generations.
Similarly, people try to reject Dreamcast out of the equation every time - Dreamcast was the first system that launched into last gen, and it was a failure. Being "first" is certainly a strategic position, but you have to be able to capitalize on it. SEGA couldn't because it was a terrible business. But, Dreamcast had great games. Certainly, Microsoft's ability to do this has to speak by its success: a failure in Japan again, a moderately slow start in Europe, and where is it at in the US compared to the original Xbox? I absolutely think Xbox 360 will do better than Xbox 1, but you're not making very compelling arguments for this.
Oneself said:If I look at it now, developers better start working on "those niche titles" soon, because there's only been a few new games a month since launch.. and soon the 360 will be a year old and will compete with two competitors, and both of them will be more successful in Japan and probably Europe as well. Good Luck (Star Fox voice)
Itachi said:What an awful wiki entry. You show zero economics acumen and obviously have no clue as to business practices that underly the game industry. If you had at least versed somewhat coherent arguments I might have let you get away with a slap on the wrist. Please do not attempt to discuss economic complexities ever again.
Billy Rygar said:Holy shit.
Console ecosystem?
rastex said:Ya, a lot of those video game business people expected the PSP to dominant the handheld market. I talked to them about it! etc. etc. blah blah