AdmiralViscen
Banned
IAmNude said:
Does this even have to be explained? Sales, variety of library, mainstream accessibility, etc etc.
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Why the 360 has already won North America
- Thread starter rastex
- Start date
Does this even have to be explained? Sales, variety of library, mainstream accessibility, etc etc.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
Please tell me this guy's earned himself a custom tag.
Red Scarlet
Member
:lol you rock, iapetus.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
Bebpo said:
xbox360 is a current gen console, like the wii. what are you talking about???
the ONLY next gen console is the PS3!
Seriously though what evidense have 360's current sales given to believe something like that? Even in NA 360's biggest market, the sales are fairly dissapointing compared to what xbox fans themselves were hoping/expecting and PS3-Wii aren't even out yet. The article seems to me more like wishful thinking than anything else.
Bebpo said:
I think the PS3 will probably pass on a worldwide basis pretty quickly, but here in the US it might actually be slower than the stalemate the DS and PSP were in.
If the 360 has a 2 million unit lead at the end of this year in North America, let's just make up some crazy numbers.
January 07:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
February 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
March 07
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
April:
360: 200K
PS3: 400K
etc. until the end of October let's say. The PS3 would JUST make up that 2 million by holidays.
Keep in mind that the actual lead (in the US) will be a bit higher, and the actual totals month-to-month almost certainly won't be that extreme.
This is going to be a SLOW war in North America.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Speevy said:
QFMFT
Too many people make comments without thinking them through fully.
Speevy said:
Err...that wasn't supposed to mean PS3 will suddenly win in November. I'm just saying let's wait until all the players are on the field before making statements like the OP.
I think X360 will lead in the NA for the entire gen personally, but I have no idea if the PS3 will be the hottest thing since sliced this fall to the general public and neither does anyone else on this board so who knows what will really happen. Statements like the OP are just sort of stupid at this point. Sony hasn't even begun their main marketing yet or revealed much about the system and its launch. We should all just hold off on our VS threads until at least December when all 3 systems are out and fighting.
The OP actually isn't entirely off the mark. I wouldn't use the "ecosystem" concept, but it is true that a large installed base generates a sort of "virtuous cycle" that perpetuates market share leadership. That's what's behind the "first to 10 million" concept that Microsoft keeps going on about. They view it as a threshold level that triggers the virtuous cycle, and once it gets going (in theory) it is hard for anyone to break the cycle because so many factors start acting in concert to perpetuate it.
For those with economics degrees, it's a classic case of a "network effect" where the installed base generates benefits that make the product itself more compelling to the point where other products are no longer competitive.
The best example is probably Windows. The installed base creates such a barrier to entry that no one can effectively competem, even with a superior product.
There are obviously many factors that contributed to the PS2's success, but the network externalities generated by the large early installed base was definitely one of them.
For those with economics degrees, it's a classic case of a "network effect" where the installed base generates benefits that make the product itself more compelling to the point where other products are no longer competitive.
The best example is probably Windows. The installed base creates such a barrier to entry that no one can effectively competem, even with a superior product.
There are obviously many factors that contributed to the PS2's success, but the network externalities generated by the large early installed base was definitely one of them.
I knew I had seen a paper on Network Effects in the console business:
http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~ohashi/VideoGames_JIE.pdf
Don't even THINK about trying to read that if you're not an Econ major.
http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~ohashi/VideoGames_JIE.pdf
Don't even THINK about trying to read that if you're not an Econ major.
Zombie James
Banned
Ajax said:
Haven't you heard? 1080p is an extra $5 million, Blu-ray is another $10 million on top of that. It's common sense!
Doom & gloom FTL
MidgarBlowedUp
Member
ACE said:
Oh don't laugh it's true. My Xbox gets so little playtime that it has it's own ecosystem. Last I checked there was a spider with it's cobweb covering the top of the case, and some cockroaches and bugs living inside the case. Yesterday, I placed a small soucer filled with water on the drive tray for the misquitos.
Amir0x said:
First off, don't take the history argument too seriously, that was just a little cheeky side thing I threw in cause I knew it would get people talking.
Now, as for the PS3 and Wii, I think both will suffer from the "N64 effect". That is where you have some amazing amazing AAA games that are released sporadically, but you don't have the lower-tier games to fill in the gaps.
And you can't look at each point individually it's the combination of them all that provides my case. Even if the PS3 launches with an exact replica of Xbox Live (which I highly doubt will happen) it won't be as effective since the 360 already has a very active, involved and spend-crazy user base. From looking at the sales numbers and how many games the 360 audience is buying, I feel that Microsoft has captured the most important audience in the game market. These are the people that buy the niche titles which means that developers will MAKE those niche titles filling in those gaps between the blockbuster releases. A healthy ecosystem.
What I'm saying isn't even new. Just look at Kojima's comments and metaphors. He consistently refers to the PS3 as the extravagant experience that occurs infrequently, and the 360 as providing the more common less extravagant event. And in pretty much every market, entertainment included, the common less extravagant events are the ones that generate the most money.
Guy LeDouche
Banned
Rastex is right. Kutaragi just called me and said he shut the whole production down because he read on the internet that the X360 has already won.
THE INTERNET
THE INTERNET
rastex said:
It hurts your overall argument.
rastex said:
There is literally zero support for your argument. PS3 already has over 160 games announced for it, 78 of which are exclusive (and actually, this number hasn't been updated in a bit - it's larger now). And that's before the thing is even out. Wii has over 120 games announced, and 60 of those are exclusive. This is faaar more support than any "N64-like" system would have initially if your theory had an even remote chance of being true. Further, these are only partial lists of announced games - TGS will have many more for both PS3 and Wii. Clearly, the case for this is very weak.
And it's vital to remember it was the cartridges that made N64 suffer like that. Neither Wii or PS3 will have an issue like that.
rastex said:
Again, there is no evidence that healthy ecosystems won't grow equally on the other systems. The theory that somehow, in the 4 million(?) units Microsoft has sold worldwide, they've captured an entire audience is absurd.
IF PS3 managed to create a replica of Xbox Live (and I agree with you, at the very least it won't be near the quality), the argument that it wouldn't be as 'effective' has zero weight. There are plenty of spend-happy gamers out there, and casual people who would like to participate in this growing world, and they'll be able to if the platform has the games they want. And PS3 has many big-name exclusives already. And Wii has tons of retro games that you can download, even though it uses the shit shitty friendcode system, and it will always have the Nintendo games - which is both its biggest draw and biggest flaw. So, really, I'd say your argument relies only on faith and not reality.
What an awful wiki entry. You show zero economics acumen and obviously have no clue as to business practices that underly the game industry. If you had at least versed somewhat coherent arguments I might have let you get away with a slap on the wrist. Please do not attempt to discuss economic complexities ever again.
Actually I do address the install base issue. The point being that the 360 has captured the most important segment of the gaming population that I feel is the engine of platform success.Stumpokapow said:
I have my reasons for why I don't think the Wii will be a stellar success, which I'll write about next. However those reasons are pretty different from the PS3 and I wanted to make the article as short as possible. Plus I'm not as confident in my predictions of the Wii's reception in the market
I explained why the PS3 isn't going to work in NA. You can choose to believe those reasons or not, but the same goes for the rest of the article. I honestly think that what Sony has done in pricing the PS3 is an absolute colossal mistake. This issue has been covered ad nauseum so there was no point in me repeating stuff that everybody has read a million times already.
Point 2 is based on year old information and my own experience developing for PS2 and Xbox.
I don't understand your "rebuttal" to point 4.
As I explained to Amirox, it doesn't matter if Sony executes just as well as MS (which I doubt they'll do anyway) in regards to Marketplace and microtransactions, etc precisely because of points 8,9 and 10. You can't look at each point individually, you have to consider the factors and how they feed off of one another. Maybe I should have done a better job at explaining that in the article itself. Oh well.
rastex said:
If I look at it now, developers better start working on "those niche titles" soon, because there's only been a few new games a month since launch.. and soon the 360 will be a year old and will compete with two competitors, and both of them will be more successful in Japan and probably Europe as well. [Voice=StarfoxSNES]Good Luck![/Voice]
Amir0x said:
I don't put much stock into pre-game announcements. When I hear that kind of talk I think back to the N64's dream team, and the Dreamcast's release list. Developers and publishers can kill or move a project pretty quickly if they find that the economics doesn't work out. Furthermore, a lot of PS3 exclusives are coming out of Japan. And I think it's safe to say that the japanese influence on the American market is not a deciding factor anymore. Any "western"-styled game coming out of Japan will be multiplatform, you can pretty much count on that.
As for the Wii, how many of those announced games actually matter compared to what Nintendo is offering?
Ya, you're right that there are a lot of assumptions made on my part. I don't KNOW the size of this "hardcore" audience. But I'm guessing it's in the low millions, and I'm guessing that a lot of them have bought into the 360. And I'm also guessing (more educated though) that the number of people in general, and in this "hardcore" audience that own multiple consoles is a very small percentage.
Amir0x said:
I agree 100% with what you said Amir0x which is surprising since I thought you weren't interested in the business side of these console companies.
I think out of all the "fanboys" of the systems, the Xbox fans are going to be hit by reality the hardest. They haven't accepted the reality that the first Xbox performed just a little better than the Gamecube (if the Gamecube was a failure, what was the Xbox?). With the Xbox 360 selling below the original Xbox's numbers so far, this should be very alarming. With the Xbox 360 basically dead in Japan and crippled in Europe, I honestly don't know if the Xbox 360 will outsell the Gamecube let alone the original Xbox. If it is on the market for five years instead of four, I suppose it will.
We are going to hear a very different tune from the Xbox fans in 2007 for sure. Soon, reality will intrude.
Ghengis Cohen
Banned
Holy shit.
Console ecosystem?
Console ecosystem?
Itachi said:
Ya, a lot of those video game business people expected the PSP to dominant the handheld market. I talked to them about it! The entire time I was trying to tell them that they were way overprojecting things. Anyway, it's easy for me to say that now since I have no proof. So that's why I wrote this article. I have this prediction, and I'm sticking my neck out on the line for it. And instead of just saying "this is what's going to happen" I decided to back up my prediction with some reasoning.
Joe Molotov
Member
Awesome thread! A++++++ Would read again!
BlueTsunami
there is joy in sucking dick
Billy Rygar said:
Its like a party, in my Xbox360!
In all honesty though, I wonder if we could Terraform Mars by dropping thousands of Xbox360s on it.
Ok, let me try this.
Let's say you're a medium sized North American developer. And let's say you haven't got into next-gen development yet. You want to release a game for holiday 2007. What do you do? For a game to come out holiday 2007, you should've decided the platforms for it already, or incredibly soon. You're not going to wait until the holidays to decide that won't leave enough development time. So you have to make the decision now, what factors are you going to take into consideration when making this decision?
The 360 is out here and now. Publishers can look at all of those factors that I've already mentioned. When they look at the PS3 there are so many unknowns. So if you're in that situation you're pretty much required to make a 360 version. It'd be insane not to, or you have a large amount of faith in the performance of the PS3. Considering PSP performance, and the high cost of hardware, and the competition from Blu-Ray movies, etc Sony isn't giving developers a lot of reason to have faith in them for exclusive support.
So you're going to do a 360 version. This creates the ecosystem. This fuels the virtuous cycle. Because that game is going to come out in Holiday 2007, and it will be marketed, and gamers will know about it and purchase a 360 to play it. Why a 360? Because the PS3 is too expensive.
And this is precisely why I didn't include the Wii into the article because it's a different kind of decision making. It's not 360 or PS3 or both, it's do we do a Wii exclusive game, or do we do a 360/PS3 game and many different factors come into play there.
Let's say you're a medium sized North American developer. And let's say you haven't got into next-gen development yet. You want to release a game for holiday 2007. What do you do? For a game to come out holiday 2007, you should've decided the platforms for it already, or incredibly soon. You're not going to wait until the holidays to decide that won't leave enough development time. So you have to make the decision now, what factors are you going to take into consideration when making this decision?
The 360 is out here and now. Publishers can look at all of those factors that I've already mentioned. When they look at the PS3 there are so many unknowns. So if you're in that situation you're pretty much required to make a 360 version. It'd be insane not to, or you have a large amount of faith in the performance of the PS3. Considering PSP performance, and the high cost of hardware, and the competition from Blu-Ray movies, etc Sony isn't giving developers a lot of reason to have faith in them for exclusive support.
So you're going to do a 360 version. This creates the ecosystem. This fuels the virtuous cycle. Because that game is going to come out in Holiday 2007, and it will be marketed, and gamers will know about it and purchase a 360 to play it. Why a 360? Because the PS3 is too expensive.
And this is precisely why I didn't include the Wii into the article because it's a different kind of decision making. It's not 360 or PS3 or both, it's do we do a Wii exclusive game, or do we do a 360/PS3 game and many different factors come into play there.
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