They don't necessarily contradict. I'd like BC in both, but if only one could have BC, I'd prefer it to be the PS4 for the simple fact that the PS3 is still receiving some pretty great games and will likely continue to do so for some time yet, whereas the 360 essentially winded down earlier this year outside of a few Live Arcade titles.
My belief that BC is important for maintaining consumer confidence in digital marketplaces is just that, some won't care that they've lost their games, etc once they move across, but I feel a percentage will feel hard done by and won't be as inclined to invest in either digital marketplace next generation.
So your basically saying that because of a couple of games that are releasing on the PS3 literally within a month of the launch of the Next Box and PS4 that the PS4 deserves BC more.
First, I think it's extremely shortsighted to belive that BC has anything to do with the ol' exclusives argument. But, I won't knock your opinion as this may be the only games you care about.
I think people underestimate how huge BC will be if MS pulled it off.
First, the obvious is that milions and millions of core gamers frequent Live for more that a couple of exclusives. Even beyond the launch of Next gen gamers on Live are still going to be playing the last 4 Call of Duty games, Halo 4, Minecraft, Halo Reach, Battlefield 3, Gears of War: J and Gears of War 3, Fifa, 13 NBA 2K13 etc.
Believe me this is not going to stop even after the Next gen systems launch or because another console releases a couple of new games.
Secondly, it's going to be absolutely priceless for MS if gamers like me that have a ridiculously huge retail and XBLA collection of games to simply can move over to the Nextbox upload my account and games like we are all normally used to doing when we move on to a new Xbox.
Again, last gen it was only Halo 2 that us original launch 360 gamers layed with the OG Xbox friends. This time it's an entire generation of games both retail and XBLA.
Plus you have a slew of games coming for the 360 as well, that need to be playable on the Next Xbox.
I know I'm still going to want to play State of Decay, Lococycle, and Ascend: New Gods on my next gen Xbox.
I know if I buy Saint's Row IV, Splinter Cell: Blacklist, South Park: Stick of Truth, Lost Planet 3, Remember Me, Fuse, etc. I'm still going to want the option to play those as well.
Now Sony doesn't go that route that's cool for them, but if I could get BC and MS also announced that most games would get a facelift (like the 360 gave old Xbox games), then even Pachter would be a dumb sh1t not to take that offer.