Well, prediction season seems to be in with all of the Switch news lately, and with Scorpio on the horizon, it'll heat up even more as 2017 continues. So, I thought it would be nice to look back at the last round of hardware predictions, back before any of the 8th gen consoles came out. Everything below is from this thread, dated September 3, 2012:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769
Below, I've C&P'ed every prediction from the first two pages of the thread, but there's plenty more where that came from, as the thread is 11 pages long. This should be fun.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769
Below, I've C&P'ed every prediction from the first two pages of the thread, but there's plenty more where that came from, as the thread is 11 pages long. This should be fun.
Same as this one.
Nintendo 1st
Microsoft 2nd
Sony 3rd
Sony 4th.
MS 3rd.
Ninty 2nd.
Valve 1st.
PC will continue to grow with Valve.
Sony will struggle despite having the best influx of IP's.
The bros will slurp up the Nextbox from Microsoft and buy annual releases.
Nintendo continues to not give a fuck and rack in the cash.
Kojima continues to save the industry every 4 years.
Sony will never retake the #1 spot. Microsoft is too deeply embedded with XBL for that to ever happen.
Both MS and Sony will lose some more gamers to the PC, Nintendo... no idea. I don't see the Wii U doing great.
Microsoft 1st
Nintendo 2nd
Sony 3rd, drops out of console business
Nintendo continues to dominate the handheld arena. It also maintains a lead for the home console space, but it's much closer this time in terms of hardware sales. Third-party software sales will see a boost for Nintendo, as well as the other next-gen consoles (compared to this gen) because of a (hopefully) recovering NA economy. Nintendo first party sales will continue to reign supreme, though.
Hardware in the U.S.
1. Nintendo
2. Microsoft
3. Sony
Hardware in Japan
1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft
Microsoft - Probably in last place per sales (unless something drastic changes), but they don't even care because their box is a "media machine" and not a "games console" a la a smartphone. Will probably actually offer a new Xbox every year with incremental upgrades and a contract. Expect to see an even worse contraction of first party output (goodbye Fable).
Sony - Likely beats Microsoft worldwide and possibly beats Nintendo, though I expect them to have lost a shit ton of money in the process. All reasonable expectations would have them dropping out of handhelds, so expect a Vita successor.
Nintendo - Pretty much all that's left of the Japanese market, in Japan and elsewhere. Expect most or all major Japanese third party games to be U/3DS-centric, and few or none of the major Western ones. May or may not finish first again (they are about a year late to the market with Wii U) but that's largely irrelevant due to profitibility actions taken by Nintendo. Expect Nintendo to largely be the same in five years as they are now.
Nintendo: Strong first place, double the other two in sales. I think Wii U is going to be the lead platform for multiplat games much like the PS2 was for games in it's generation. I think Nintendo will have a minimum of 10 million units on the market by a year from it's release and I think Nintendo is going to build a very strong relationship with indie developers and build their E-Shop. I think we're currently seeing at least some movement from developers in Nintendo's direction and some movement can lead to more movement if those result in more sales.
Microsoft: I think Microsoft is going to have another solid generation and move into a clear second place. I think they helped themselves a lot this generation building on the last one and there is little indication that will not continue. I see MS as kind of a bridge between Nintendo and Sony's philosophies with the strengths and weaknesses of each. I think MS is going to benefit from their Xbox Live user base and building a strong community of core gamers that is willing and able to pay for the service. I also think they're going to benefit from their Kinect audience they've been building but I think the true test is how well they synthesize these audiences and show a value proposition to cause more overlap between the two. I think that Japan will still be a struggle as well, but Europe is going to move a bit closer to MS's direction compared to Sony.
Sony: it's going to be a struggle. I look at the position Sony is in this generation compared to last gen and I have a lot of issues with them. It doesn't seem like they're 6 years removed from being a completely dominant force in the industry about to launch a highly anticipated followup to the most successful console of all time. It feels more like 20. Everything has been changed from Sony's position. They don't have the same instant cache they have by just being Sony. They aren't going to have developers just jumping on with early exclusives, why should they when there is no guarantee the userbase will be there? I think that instead you're going to see more exclusives go to MS and to Nintendo rather than to Sony.
I think that Sony still doesn't truly accept the idea that they need to regain and rebuild trust. Its not about humbling Sony, its about Sony understanding the position they're in and reverting to what works and making a developer friendly environment at a price consumers are willing to buy into early to build that userbase up as quickly as possible. Its about having that killer game at launch or as early as possible that will FORCE consumers to jump on board... and I don't know that Sony gets that. I don't think they succeeded with doing that with the Vita and I think that is a serious problem.
I honestly think Nintendo is going to rock this next generation. They seem to be getting a lot right recently with their software, and Iwata has learned a lot from the 3DS's underwhelming launch.
I think Microsoft will be the same. Poor value, weak offerings, and overcharging for things that should be free in the first place. But Americans will buy it because...who knows why.
Sony will fumble along because it has unrealistic consumer expenditure expectations. There's no reason to think Sony's gaming division will die. It makes a profit. And if the corporation were to fall apart, it would likely be purchased and continued.
Microsoft: Xbox 3, Kinect, and Windows 8 will all join together in a huge, messy blob. Will continue to staunchly over-charge for everything, make online multiplayer a service charge, and will more or less get away with it. Apart from the Gold charge; I predict that if Sony and Nintendo both have competent, online free services, Microsoft will have to make Silver baseline and with multiplayer included, or lose their marketshare. Will either launch around the same time/after the PS4, and therefore lose the headstart the 360 had. Less exclusives, apart from the company's big names.
Sony: Will get the headstart. Won't use a cell processor. Hopefully will learn from various mistakes with PSP... Vita... PS3... probably not. Less exclusives, apart from the company's big names.
Nintendo: Won't do as insanely well as the Wii; the Wii U will sell more than the Gamecube though, and people will once again claim they've failed. Instead of losing third party support due to outdated technology, the more refined yet still relatively familiar tech of the Wii U allows third party developers who can't afford the predictably huge costs of next gen to keep making cost effective games.
1. Nintendo
2. Sony
3. Microsoft
MS and Sony will be fine thanks to XBL and PSN. Nintendo is heading right down shitfall rapids with the way they handle their online infrastructure. They should have built a PSN/XBL counterpart over the last 8 years.
I think Nintendo will take 1st place again, no idea about Sony and Microsoft, could go either way.
PS3 [Phediuk's note: probably means PS4] will be 2nd or 1st[if Nintendo messes up]. No more headstart and price advantage for xbox. Remember than in EU and JP Sony has MS beat. I can see MS competing in NA but due to no headstart i see sony beating them easily. Sony is stronger on consoles than their handhelds.
sony will be the new sega, microsoft will call their next console a pc and nintendo... i honestly don´t know...
If the PS4 launches around the same time with the same price as the NextBox, I think Sony can come out in second. $399 price cap and they could be golden.
What I'd like to see: Xbox 3 to follow the tradition of falling flat on your third home console (Microsoft desperately needs taking down a peg or twenty), Playstation 4 to become the home of "hardcore" gaming, which means it'll do well in North America and the UK and be overtaken by the Wii U elsewhere in the world. Meanwhile, Japan becomes Nintendoland as far as the video game market is concerned.
What I'd expect: Xbox 3 and Playstation 4 swapping roles from the above scenario and Sony dropping out of the gaming market, while the Wii U taking over elsewhere (especially Japan).
Sony = Doomed, they lost all the big exlusives, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, etc. They have their first party studios and IPS but they aren't system sellers. I think we will see Naughty Dog buying themselves back from Sony and becoming an independent studio at the first hint of trouble with PS4. Microsoft will probably try to make PS4 launch lineup look dry, by getting timed exclusivity for Star Wars 1313, Watch_Dogs etc. They could also sabotage major third party engines by paying Epic or Crytek (who they are very close to) and asking them to cripple the engines, to make Xbox 720 look good.
Microsoft = they will just buy their way through to victory. They will probably money hat and get an exclusive from Crytek and Epic, both Ryse and Cliffy B's new Xbox 720 IP will blow peoples mind. They will probably have the strongest box too...
Nintendo = the wild card again! They named Wii U after Wii, which is pretty much dead every where and their box is ancient technology once again. Will the casual crowd bite? Only time will tell. But they can just ride their way through because how strong they are in Japan.
Wow a lot of Sony will be dead posts.
so basically Sony to win next gen confirmed?
If Sony does "die", I could see them merging with Nintendo or Microsoft.
Super HD Twins: same story as this generation, pretty much, as far as how they compete with each other. Microsoft leads in America, competes in Europe, bombs in Japan. Overall lead: toss up.
Welcome to the HD party: Nintendo has a sophomore slump with the Wii followup, does not experience the same level of success as this generation in any region. Respectable, but finishes third in US and Europe and second in Japan.
Overall, the market for home consoles will contract. Other devices and indeed other forms of entertainment will eat away at console share. Sales will be 70-80% of what this generation's output.
1. Microsoft
2. Nintendo
3. PC\Steam
Sony dead.
Sony:
PSP and PS2 will still see support. Vita dies horribly and I bet Sony will cease making portable hardware in favor of their PS4 getting Cloud gaming and getting a direct Wii U copycat controller. PS4 blesses us with many new IP's. PS4 will do okay but Japanese sales will be surprisingly low due to Wii U being the driving platform for Japanese devs.
Microsoft:
Will have even more success with a bundled-from-the-start Kinect 2. Will be the lead platform for third-party games from Western devs again. Will overtake Wii U sales in North America. Will be largely ignored in Japan. Will be king of multimedia living rooms.
Nintendo:
Will be Number 1 in worldwide console sales again. Wii U doesn't set the world on fire though but that's expected. 3DS lifetime sales will be on track or even surpass GBA lifetime sales. Wii U eShop somehow gets great support from devs worldwide while the retail side with Western games goes from okay to ghost-like again with the exception from Japanese devs, where it's strictly Wii U/3DS.
Pokemon:
MMORPG announced... At end of Wii U's life cycle. Try again, bitches!
I think Nintendo is going to get the more interesting games, it'll likely be cheaper to produce for so people will be more likely to take a risk. Microsoft and Sony will continue to get the big AAA games and not a whole lot else. All three get multi-platform games.
sony on top 100 mil ps4's sold 60 mil vitas
nintendo second mario keepin em alive
microsoft third ain't got no exclusives
Overall, I think it will be a very challenging gen for the big three. With limited information, my predictions are the following:
I'm more bearish on Nintendo than most. I don't think the WiiU's gaming pad has the "wow" factor of the Wii's motion controls. Obviously, Nintendo will always have a core following, but I have to wonder if the iPad vs WiiU comparisons will eat into Nintendo's casual base.
Sony is a very cool gamers company, but I really don't think they understand the broader market right now. It seems like they're using a playbook that's 10 years old (hence Vita) and they're making knock-offs of successful competitor products (move). Where is the product leadership that excites the mainstream market? Additionally, the company as a whole is really having difficulties right now. Given this, I think Sony will really struggle next gen.
Microsoft seems like the most progressive company right now. They have a great brands with Live and Kinect that pleases very different market segments. More importantly, they've shown a willingness to push progressive business ideas. I think next gen is going to be very challenging, but I think MS will come out on top in WW sales.
Microsoft: Proprietors of the box that does Call of Duty, Netflix, and GRAFICS.
Sony: In dire straits, and not the cool "Sultans of Swing" kind.
Nintendo: Perpetually doomed but never dead.
Nintendo = king, yet again. Both Wii U and 3DS sell a bunch.
Microsoft = Nextobx will sell pretty good in the US, not as good as the 360
Sony = am doomed. Vita won't sell, it might not even last 4 years in the market. PS4 will be pretty meh and no, there won't be signs of The Last Guardian.
Also, no HL3
I don't see Steam growing much to be honest. EA pulled out, Ubisoft has their own store now, Square Enix too working on a store, with so much fragmentation and the lack of big exclusive games. What will be the point of Steam? It will be a Valve game playing service.
EA pullout was a huge blow to Steam IMO. And another problem with Valve is, lack of new games. They are behind the curve in terms of technology and they like to update their ancient games for a long time. This is good, but some gamers are interested in the new shit like Battlefield 4 or CoD Next etc.
think each of the big 3 have some interesting challenges to overcome going into the next-gen.
Microsoft lacks any significant presence in Japan, and while it didn't hurt them too much this gen, I feel like if Nintendo/Sony can get some type of parity, that we may see less Japanese support for them.
Microsoft has also been coasting for some time now. Sure, they've had Kinect, but they haven't really been cultivating new franchises and studios at the tail end of the generation. And not sure how soon they can get a Halo/Gears game out if each has a title out within the next 6-10 months.
Nintendo has a lot of image problems. Their consoles for the past 3 generations have been seen as lacking in some regards (3rd party support, kiddy, casual-oriented) and with proper marketing is something you can possibly overcome.
The problem is of course getting support. So far, 3rd party releases doesn't seem to be improving on the Wii's too much, and that may force people to be more sheep-ish on the console's prospective.
Also, right now, I think it's really hard to convey their message properly or they've done a poor job of it.
Sony... is in both the best and worst position of the three. They have cultivated a ton of new studios and IPs this gen, but I feel like very few of them have gotten the mainstream appeal of say a Mario or Halo. So eventually when enough games are out will look healthy, but don't have that one game that will force people to buy the console.
They are also bleeding money with the Vita, it is curious to see how their resources go next-gen/handheld.
Sony
Sony will be out of the games business, and possibly out of business altogether.
Microsoft
Microsoft won't make a fourth console.
Nintendo
Nintendo will continue profiting, but only because they were smart enough to scale down their operations.
Nintendo will win most likely, they will see decline from the Wii but still healthy sales.
Sony will be fine, probably 2nd place.
Microsoft will be third due to third console curse, sorry bros.
Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft. That order.
Nintendo isnt going anywhere and will be back at gamecube numbers, sony will do better than this gen but will be second to MS again. Sony and MS are "close" now, but imagine what the numbers would be if MS wouldnt have failed misrably in Japan. MS have too much money to not keep buying exclusives and remain on top.
They were 3rd with xbox1, 2nd with 360 and the number 1 is inevitable next gen.
I feel like this is a repeat everyone is always saying microsoft is going to fail in some sort of way, i don't think so, kinect is hadoken to the soul but i think they'll be at most number 2.
Nintendo will go third party. Xbox will dominate the market with paid subs for everything. Sony will sell of its gaming division to recoup losses in other divisions. Rosie O'Donnell will then be elected President of the United States.
Nintendo:
Will still do ok, it has stolen the shovelware title from PS2, it's IP's are still strong and will continue to rack in the millions, the only thing it has to worry about is a buyout from Apple.
Microsoft:
Will finally have the ""HTPC"" in the living room, but not the way they expected it, the next xbox is more of a netbox than anything else, it will steam content as well as play downloadble games. With the financial backing from Microsoft it will maintain dibs on third party content such as DLC.
Sony:
Dead, well almost, in the worst case scenario they will go 3rd party like they have with their PS1 games now running in Android, the Playstation brand will be licensed out or they will follow SEGA's model.
Valve:
Still has not released HL3, will face very tough competition in the future, will move into the cloud steam service, may try and work with Sony, it will not work out. Valve will most likely try and stop Apple.
Apple:
has already launched a stealth attack with iPad, iPod, iPhone, all of these devices will be used with the iHDTV, the iHDTV will run iOS, may kill triple AAA+ games.
Microsoft will dominate the console market, especially in the U.S.
Sony will do something stupid with the PS4 and end up noticeably behind Microsoft.
Nintendo will return to Gamecube levels of success with the Wii U.
i can't believe so many people think so poorly of sony's chances.
the only big negative for them is that they might stop making handhelds. if that's the case, they'll just be focusing all their studios and energy on one console again.
All three consoles will sell less than their predecessor's final numbers.
Along the way multiple "console gaming is doomed" threads will ensue on GAF.
Sony
Sony will give up on handhelds when it realizes not nearly enough people want a dedicated gaming handheld anymore (they want a swiss army knife device, which mean Apple or Android) unless it's from Nintendo. PS4 will end up 3rd place, 2nd best case scenario (i.e., Nintendo flops). Future PlayStations will be multimedia streaming boxes and/or built into their TVs/licensed to be built into other manufacturers' TVs.
Nintendo
Wii U won't set the world on fire like the Wii did. Dropping price of the Wii just gives it a second life as a console for casuals, and will cannibalize Wii U sales a little. Nintendo does well, enough to beat Sony, but has to work a little to be there. 3DS sales figures never blow anyone's mind but it continues to do okay all gen long.
Microsoft
Tightens its grip on NA console market with a solid box than has a decent combination of power, price and multimedia features. Potential for huge growth is smothered by the fact they won't open up XBLA to make it easier for devs, who continue to migrate to iOS devices and the Ouya (which is moderately successful). Does better in Japan than it did this cycle, but that's not saying much.
Apple
Releases a quasi-Ouya/console/Apple TV thingie that your iPad or iPhone can interact with. Will play Mac games. Sorta interesting and will sell okay, but not threaten MS or Nintendo (aside from further drying up XBLA).
Microsoft continues their move into the casual space and emerges as the frontrunner on the console side
Nintendo has an identity crisis and tries and fails to capture both casual and hardcore gamers, but does pretty decent overall. Probably comes in second if we're just talking consoles, but definitely comes in first if we include handhelds.
Sony...I honestly do not know.
Nintendo 1st with 140 million units sold. Wii U will become another PS2.
