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2012 GAF's predictions for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo in the next generation
- Thread starter Phediuk
- Start date
AstroNut325
Member
I can't wait till I read the 2018 thread in 2021.
It proved gaffers are as good analyst as pachter is. Hell in some cases worse. Some people don't live in the real world and don't understand business. Their thoughts are clouded by fanboyism
Jimmyfenix
Member
This is amazing
I remember reading the predictions and to be honest it really sounds like what people hope to see than rational perspective.
2012 was before the 2013 reveal of PS4/Xbox One and most Sony fans would want 2 things to happen. First is launching at the same day as Next Xbox without giving it a one year headstart and Second would be being at the same pricepoint rather than 200 dollar more expensive.
If both conditions are fulfilled, PS4 would have a much easier battle against the next Xbox.
2012 was before the 2013 reveal of PS4/Xbox One and most Sony fans would want 2 things to happen. First is launching at the same day as Next Xbox without giving it a one year headstart and Second would be being at the same pricepoint rather than 200 dollar more expensive.
If both conditions are fulfilled, PS4 would have a much easier battle against the next Xbox.
Jon Carter
Member
Well, I guess there is a shred of hope that we are wrong about the Switch. I also predicted Brexit wouldn't happen, France would beat Portugal in the Euro finals, and Trump had no chance of winning the presidency. I hope I'm wrong when I say the price of everything related to the Switch will have disastrous consequences.
Sword Of Doom
Member
I generally agree but few could have predicted the meltdown of MS around the launch of the XB1.
The difference between what people feel about the switch now and these predictions is that the feelings about the switch are post conference where they announced pricing. I personally hope we're all wrong cause I want the switch to succeed but Nintendo isn't making it easy with their paid online and $80 joycons
Seemed like most of those people got bamboozled by "America" and the games media which is also mostly focused on the US. Heck a few years in and some of the same media heads think that the xbox can still come back and question what sony really has.
If everyone in that thread looked at the world picture even in 2012 it was clear as day what the future would be. The people that thought Sony would be dead just got blinded by only getting half the information. A lot of businesses and Countries have failed because of failed information and that thread is proof.
Even now people associate Sonys success with Microsofts and Ninentdos failure. 3 of the 4 generations that Sony has been a part of was at the top. Minus the start of the PS3 generation they have been the most stable of the three. It even shows in the marketing overall.
If everyone in that thread looked at the world picture even in 2012 it was clear as day what the future would be. The people that thought Sony would be dead just got blinded by only getting half the information. A lot of businesses and Countries have failed because of failed information and that thread is proof.
Even now people associate Sonys success with Microsofts and Ninentdos failure. 3 of the 4 generations that Sony has been a part of was at the top. Minus the start of the PS3 generation they have been the most stable of the three. It even shows in the marketing overall.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
I suppose the Wii U has helped reveal how small the core Nintendo fan audience is these days, they really failed to expand much beyond that.
Sword Of Doom
Member
Seeing MS and Nintendo making bad decisions these past few years goes to show how well Sony has done this generation. They've kept it mostly simple with a very focused product and messaging
I'm already one of the voices saying it actually will perform WORSE than the Wii U.
That's my gut impression.
Chuck Norris
Banned
Oh look I posted in that. I didn't really make a 1,2,3 prediction in that thread but I feel like I mostly got what I said correct
Chuck Norris
Banned
No I think the assumption was more like it would be a significant jump over 360 and PS3 but still short of the next PS and Xbox when they came out later
Kind of like a Dreamcast early jump over the competition
Mostly? You got 1 out of 3 right.
Microsoft was casual then realigned to hardcore.
Your Nintendo prediction amounted to it 'could go either way'.
Movalpolos
Banned
Chuck Norris
Banned
MS was off, though that's what they should have done.
Nintendo IS hit and miss
But I guess that's not really a prediction
naw man, there is no way it can be worse than the wii. The second the next pokemon game is put on there and not on the 3DS that thing will get enough to push it over the threshold of the Wii u
SolidSnakex
Member
This is definitely a huge part of it. I think if you were to get predictions from a lot of the big US based sites, they'd look a lot like the predictions in that thread. One thing this generation has done is open some eyes to just how much work Sony has put into building up the Playstation brand around the world. That worldwide brand strength is how they completely nullified the big lead the 360 had on the PS3 in the US.
HeisenbergWW62
Banned
Can't wait to look back at the thread before next gen and see how wrong we all were
DangerMouse
Member
Yup. It may not have succeeded but such a great set of hardware and I doubt the proprietary memory card thing was his call. It was even set to have a decent price until the large 3DS price cut and memory card prices. It seems to be quite developer friendly too, despite coming out a decent time before PS4 was built with the real indie push, given all of the indies that have also been successful on it after the bigger devs left.
And he did the same with PS4, outdid everybody on the combination of components and well-chosen additions for customizing the GPU. Predicted the needs well enough to get the vast majority of games achieving 1080p too.
Plus Cerny, Shu, Boyes, Tretton, House and the rest going in surprisingly full on acknowledging their mistakes with PS3. Cerny even openly talking about them as he outlined the specs of the PS4.
Nintendo had already confused everyone by this point. This was after the E3 2012 demo that ended with the Nintendoland fireworks, remember.
This thread needs hella context
Sony as a company was failing outside of like two sectors and the company was bleeding money. Also Vita had launched.
Nintendo had released jack shit for the past 2 years and people expected a shit ton of games and not an outrageous price for the shitty hardware coupled with marketing that was the equivalent of selling manure as food
For predictions they weren't bad
Props to Kaz for turning Playstation's and Sony's fortunes around
Sony as a company was failing outside of like two sectors and the company was bleeding money. Also Vita had launched.
Nintendo had released jack shit for the past 2 years and people expected a shit ton of games and not an outrageous price for the shitty hardware coupled with marketing that was the equivalent of selling manure as food
For predictions they weren't bad
Props to Kaz for turning Playstation's and Sony's fortunes around
Napalm_Frank
Member
My prediction on that thread:
Didn't predict how hard Ninty and MS would drop the ball but otherwise not too embarassing compared to some other stuff in that thread. I can't believe people were all about PS4 being doomed after Sony catching up to 360 despite all their bungling and Wii being dead by then.
Didn't predict how hard Ninty and MS would drop the ball but otherwise not too embarassing compared to some other stuff in that thread. I can't believe people were all about PS4 being doomed after Sony catching up to 360 despite all their bungling and Wii being dead by then.
Aceofspades
Banned
The crazy thing is that PS3 was outselling 360 Worldwide since launch but it doesn't matter for most posters of Gaf because PS3 NPD performance was subpar compared to 360.
People needs to realize that NPD is one small part of the picture especially for Sony.
Always bet on Playstation systems, hell even the lowest selling PS system is around 90m units sold (higher than anything MS achieved, Nintendo has only one console sold better than PS3)
now PS4 has sold 54m units. 2012 predictions thread doesn't make sense to me at all.
People needs to realize that NPD is one small part of the picture especially for Sony.
Always bet on Playstation systems, hell even the lowest selling PS system is around 90m units sold (higher than anything MS achieved, Nintendo has only one console sold better than PS3)
now PS4 has sold 54m units. 2012 predictions thread doesn't make sense to me at all.
JinjoUnchained
Member
Is GAF the new Pachter?
Katana_Strikes
Member
People like to mention "GAFs" lack of ability to predict the future but at that point in time was there any or many pros that would have predicted the outcome differently?
It's easy to look back and laugh and see people with egg on their face but no one could have predicted MS fail so badly to unveil a system and the policies it had in place back then. Nor really that Sony really had its head screwed on and actually knew what they were doing.
It's easy to look back and laugh and see people with egg on their face but no one could have predicted MS fail so badly to unveil a system and the policies it had in place back then. Nor really that Sony really had its head screwed on and actually knew what they were doing.
LiquidSolid
Member
Except:
1. The Vita was a misstep but you could see that coming from the PSP. The important bit is Sony were doing great with the PS3 at the time, with some great first party games, strong indie support and some really great, consumer friendly initiatives (PS+ IGC, cross-buy, cross-save, etc). They built up a lot of good will at the time.
2. The Wii U had had two poor showings at E3 by that point, a lot of people still thought it was a Wii accessory FFS and there was always going to be a bit of a speed bump with Nintendo finally moving to HD. Nintendo fans were outright delusional going into that launch, I remember arguing with a bunch of them in the Any reason why the Wii U *won't* dominate Japan? thread because there were people seriously arguing that Dragon Quest X, Monster Hunter 3U, Tekken Tag 2, Dynasty Warriorsn, etc would sell millions of Wii U's in Japan. They didn't even want to consider that DQX was an up-port of a MMO already available on the Wii, MH3U was an up-port of a series that has always done FAR better on handhelds and the rest were just PS3 ports.
QuixoticNeutral
Member
The biggest lesson I drew from reading those predictions was that people systematically overestimate momentum from one generation to the next and underestimate the capacity of a new product launch to hit the reset button.
Fair enough, since in the course of predicting anything you work with the information you have, and game-changing factors like Microsoft's messy introduction of the Xbox One wasn't information on the table.
Fair enough, since in the course of predicting anything you work with the information you have, and game-changing factors like Microsoft's messy introduction of the Xbox One wasn't information on the table.
michaelius
Banned
I haven't posted in that thread but my prediction in 2011 was that
Nintendo will release first with slightly underpowered box doing 1080p@30 or 720@60
Microsoft releasing second with most powerfull console with plenty of 1080@60 games
Sony being late again by around 6 months and having slightly slower console than xbox
For sales I expected Sony first due to worldwide presence with slight lead over Microsoft and Nintendo dropping to around half of Wii userbase.
I expected that they will follow with strategies that were most successful for their brands and not try to commit marketing suicide like Nintendo or Microsoft
In retrospective it looks like only Sony realized what was their and competitors strong points.
Nintendo will release first with slightly underpowered box doing 1080p@30 or 720@60
Microsoft releasing second with most powerfull console with plenty of 1080@60 games
Sony being late again by around 6 months and having slightly slower console than xbox
For sales I expected Sony first due to worldwide presence with slight lead over Microsoft and Nintendo dropping to around half of Wii userbase.
I expected that they will follow with strategies that were most successful for their brands and not try to commit marketing suicide like Nintendo or Microsoft
In retrospective it looks like only Sony realized what was their and competitors strong points.LastMinuteHero
Member
They were. Hell even today some people still think that way
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Can't believe so many people thought the wii u would be a massive success. That thing screamed flop to me due to the extremely awkward marketing and massive controller. As if the mass market would gravitate towards that. Plus the Wii was facing a backlash from hardcore gamers, the early adopters.
MS and Sony were much harder to predict. MS seemingly had a stranglehold on the US. No could've predicted the Xbone reveal.
MS and Sony were much harder to predict. MS seemingly had a stranglehold on the US. No could've predicted the Xbone reveal.
GoodCoffeeJoey
Banned
Biggest mistake people seem to make in the predictions is vastly overestimating the previous-gen console base's brand loyalty and intent to purchase the successor console. Wii-U was assumed to be a major success based on the vast sales of its predecessor. While in America, the assumed default console for casual/bro audiences changed from the 360 to the PS4 overnight.
that "Wii U will become another PS2" post made my day.
even at the time, thinking the Wii U could have been a massive success was a pure deranged delusion, especially after the terrible showings they did. Sony's situation wasn't that bad at all, but of course there still were people thinking the company was already dead and buried.
if by "weren't bad" you mean completely clueless and wrong, then yes, I agree. and if you're gonna drop some hella context at least get it right
even at the time, thinking the Wii U could have been a massive success was a pure deranged delusion, especially after the terrible showings they did. Sony's situation wasn't that bad at all, but of course there still were people thinking the company was already dead and buried.
Suzushiiro
Banned
Yeah, whenever people here say that the Switch is going to be a Wii U-level bomb I just remember how everyone thought the Wii U would take first place easily back then due to the casual market buying it in droves. Predicting MS > Sony at that point made sense, though- in hindsight both of them were already on the trajectories that led to their current positions back then, but realistically nobody could have predicted how bad MS was going to shit the bed (and how well Sony would actually not fuck it up- wasn't conventional wisdom back then that PS4 would be powered by a Cell 2 or something rather than x86?)
While people like us can predict how well things will do among the "core" audience somewhat accurately (by fall 2013 everyone here who wasn't blinded by fanboyism had a decent idea of how PS4 vs XBone would go) we're traditionally really fucking bad at predicting what the "casual" market will do.
While people like us can predict how well things will do among the "core" audience somewhat accurately (by fall 2013 everyone here who wasn't blinded by fanboyism had a decent idea of how PS4 vs XBone would go) we're traditionally really fucking bad at predicting what the "casual" market will do.
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