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2013 Mar NBA Season lOT| Change This Face, Be Happy, Enjoy it!

RedAssedApe

Banned
Have people always shat on Rudy Gay? I mean his FG% is garbage this year but he's still at 45% for his career so he must have been doing something different in prior years? I'd agree that he is a really shitty 3pt shooter though...

I freely admit to not watching any non-playoff Grizzlies games until this year when I stupidly grabbed Gay in my fantasy draft.
 

Jeff-DSA

Member
Have people always shat on Rudy Gay? I mean his FG% is garbage this year but he's still at 45% for his career so he must have been doing something different in prior years? I'd agree that he is a really shitty 3pt shooter though...

It's a perfect recipe to lose at 1-on-1 to Austin Rivers.
 

Smokey

Member
Rudy Gay would lose 1-on-1 to Kwame Brown.

extra random

Also it's in the rockets best interests to get that 8th spot. They'll likely get swept either way but I give em a shot to win one game against the Spurs. They havezero chance against the thunder or clippers.
 
Clips rely too much on roleplayers, who tend to shit the bed in road playoff series.

If Harden can just go hard for one of the first two games on the Clippers home court I could see those guys getting shook back in Houston.

Of course, Lin, Parsons and all those scrubs would probably be just as bad on the road so...
 

Vahagn

Member
So apparently ESPN allows you to see regular season records going back to 2001-2002 season and it includes games decided by 3 points or less and overtime games.


Lakers record in games decided by 3 points or less in that time was 88-70 (.556). Overtime games record was 41-20 (.672)

San Antonio's record was 90-61 (.596) and 30-17 (.638) in overtime games.

Dallas record was 94-65 (.591) and 28-25 (.528). Dallas is interesting because in 06-07 - the year they had the best record and were the best regular season team their record in 3 point or less games was 12-3. This year? 2-6.


Cleveland and Miami during Lebron's tenure had a combined record of 62-52 (.543) and 31-22 (.584)

Miami was only 2-8 in games decided by 3 points or less in Lebron's first season, when they lost close games in the finals. And was 6-2 last season in those close games when they ended up winning the close games in the Finals.
 

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
find me these mystery stats which would indicate that Rudy Gay is a better player than Gallo

you make a claim, the burden of proof is on you to support it; "it's my opinion dawg" is a response that degenerate simpletons use


Degenerate simpleton. Oh well.


So if I recall correctly the original statement was that the Raptors would be a better team with Gallo than with Gay.
And many people said without a shadow of a doubt or room for intelligent discussion that there was no possible way that that their choice of Gallo COULD be wrong.
And that choice was made through using stats.

And now you want to know what mystery stat could indicate that Rudy is better than Gallo.

Your "mystery" stat would be any immeasurable that can not be accounted for with existing stats.
So I don't mean an existing NBA stat. I mean any variable that would have an impact on the situation under discussion.


A couple of examples could be:
- success at being primary playmaker at the ends of games VS getting the ball passed to him to take the shot?
- successful in Iso situations?
- been responsible for defending the other teams allstar SF?
- do opposing teams match up their best defensive forward with the player?
- would player A be more effective than player B with consideration of existing teammates and previously developed relationships?

I wasnt interested in defending my thoughts on Gay vs Gallo. So I'm just giving some examples of variables that I feel could impact making a definitive decision in the debate. I am not saying that I know or anyone else knows the answers to these questions.

But the issue with standing behind the impenetrable wall of stats is all that has to be done to prove someone wrong is by adding something into the equation that wasn't already there. Something that wasn't originally accounted for.

If you want to make a statement that is not open to discussion and you are using stats to defend your opinion then your opinion needs to be bound by that stat.

-Player A shoots this percentage in the last five minutes of a game.
-Player B shoots a lower percentage than player A in the last five minutes of a game.
-Therefore I declare that player A will shoot a higher percentage in the last five minutes of games.

Yes! Perfect use.

- Player A has these stats for his career.
- Player B has similar but less impressive stats for his career.
- Therefore player A would be better than player B for team C.

No! Improper use of stats. There are too many variables to make a concrete statement.

- Therefore player A could be better than player B for team C.

Yes! You have made an educated decision using existing stats but left room for discussion and further examination of other possible effecting variables.

On top of all that there are not many opinions that are worse to become emotionally attached to than ones defended by statistics.

I hope that this helps but I brace myself for more fun.
 
extra random

Also it's in the rockets best interests to get that 8th spot. They'll likely get swept either way but I give em a shot to win one game against the Spurs. They havezero chance against the thunder or clippers.

Eh, I think they ought to shoot for the 6. I think MEM is gonna steal the 3 from the Clips, and didnt HOU blow them out earlier this year?

Besides, theres no guarantee the Spurs are gonna stay at 1. With Parker's injury, and the Thunder's winrate, we could slip to 2 pretty easily.
 

Smokey

Member
Clips rely too much on roleplayers, who tend to shit the bed in road playoff series.

If Harden can just go hard for one of the first two games on the Clippers home court I could see those guys getting shook back in Houston.

Of course, Lin, Parsons and all those scrubs would probably be just as bad on the road so...

Parsons is nice watchu talking about

Agree on Lin tho. They signed Aaron brooks too so that will give them some more firepower off the bench. I'm sure AB can't wait with the chuck system we have here
 

PBY

Banned
So apparently ESPN allows you to see regular season records going back to 2001-2002 season and it includes games decided by 3 points or less and overtime games.


Lakers record in games decided by 3 points or less in that time was 88-70 (.556). Overtime games record was 41-20 (.672)

San Antonio's record was 90-61 (.596) and 30-17 (.638) in overtime games.

Dallas record was 94-65 (.591) and 28-25 (.528). Dallas is interesting because in 06-07 - the year they had the best record and were the best regular season team their record in 3 point or less games was 12-3. This year? 2-6.


Cleveland and Miami during Lebron's tenure had a combined record of 62-52 (.543) and 31-22 (.584)

Miami was only 2-8 in games decided by 3 points or less in Lebron's first season, when they lost close games in the finals. And was 6-2 last season in those close games when they ended up winning the close games in the Finals.

Do you think that winning close games is a skill? I'd argue that having the better team helps, but overall its just basically luck.
 
so guys lay it down to me, will the lakers make the playoffs, and what perfect storm has to happen to prevent/guarantee this?

Probably. Houston has a really easy schedule so they're locks for the playoffs. I doubt GSW continues to slip, but Utah has a tough schedule with lots of road games and they're a bad road team.
 

Vahagn

Member
Do you think that winning close games is a skill? I'd argue that having the better team helps, but overall its just basically luck.

Yea I don't believe this for a second. I know "luck" and "randomness" and "regression to the mean" are things that are always thrown around but I think they're just lazy explanations a lot of times. They seem like convenient explanations when you don't watch the games. Regression to the mean makes sense when Kobe goes 1 for 34 from the 3 point line, that he's going to shoot much better than that because he's a career 35% 3 pt shooter. Or Nash making a 100% of his Ft's over 30 attempts, he's eventually going to miss a few. Things like that. But there are more complex late game situations than just that.


For example, earlier in the year Dwight was being subjected to Hack a Dwight and we were losing more close games. Recently, the ball has been in the hands of Kobe and Nash in late game situations and we've been doing much better.


While I think there are definitely times where it is luck. Where there is regression to the mean. I think overall, there are pretty obvious explanations to what a team does to win a lot of close games vs. lose a lot of close games when you watch the game. But that's just me.
 

KingJ2002

Member
so guys lay it down to me, will the lakers make the playoffs, and what perfect storm has to happen to prevent/guarantee this?

for this to happen:

1. Utah / Golden State need to continue losing streak
2. Lakers have to ensure their easy schedule remains easy to them (don't lose to scrub teams that are already out of the running and looking to tank.)
3. They get back Gasol before the end of the month and he plays well

for the lakers to not make it:

- Go on another Losing streak (lose 4 in a row and they're done)
- Utah / Golden State / Houston dont lose a single game for the rest of the season.
- Dwight / Clark / Kobe / Nash gets hurt (done)
- Gasol comes back and is the cancer of the team.
- Sign Raja Bell and fuck up the chemistry.
- Lakers move at the same pace as the other teams in front of them.
 

diehard

Fleer
can we stop getting nationally televised Sixers games please

just generally stop televising most of the Eastern Conference.
 

Truelize

Steroid Distributor
can we stop getting nationally televised Sixers games please

just generally stop televising most of the Eastern Conference.

I would have liked to see that Bucks game last night. But my only choices were curling, wrestling and hockey.
 
when do they schedule these things? they must have assumed Bynum would be around to make them interesting. theyre one of the most boring, lifeless teams in the league to watch tho, the only source of entertainment with that team comes from Swaggy P and Doug Collins. Sorry Knux.
 

Vahagn

Member
When Gasol comes back it will destroy the team

Hopefully he's making a speedy recovery

Earlsanity has completely died down and Dwight seems to have accepted his Bynum circa 2008-2010 role. I think there might be an initial period of adjustment, but I don't think it destroys the team at all.


Antawn has been a really big bright spot on the offensive end lately though, I hope he doesn't fall out of the rotation.
 

Vahagn

Member
Mike D'Antoni: "We might have to go small some with Nash and Blake. But that's fine, I don't mind doing that"



understatement of the year.


Kobe's FT shooting. Jesus.

Untitled-1.jpg
 
Probably. Houston has a really easy schedule so they're locks for the playoffs. I doubt GSW continues to slip, but Utah has a tough schedule with lots of road games and they're a bad road team.

I don't think we'll win tonight, but the loss is lessened by Utah's recent loss to the Bucks. Friday is a big day for the Lakers. Utah plays CHI and GS and HOU play each other. We play the Raps. Both GS and UTAH should be closer targets by the end of the week.

I think GS's schedule is pretty brutal with another game against Hou the following week. Even with home games, they have a tough schedule coming up.

IMO, the Lakers slide into the 7th.

6th Hou
7th LA
8Th GS
9th UTAH
 

Vahagn

Member
I don't think we'll win tonight, but the loss is lessened by Utah's recent loss to the Bucks. Friday is a big day for the Lakers. Utah plays CHI and GS and HOU play each other. We play the Raps. Both GS and UTAH should be closer targets by the end of the week.

I think GS's schedule is pretty brutal with another game against Hou the following week. Even with home games, they have a tough schedule coming up.

IMO, the Lakers slide into the 7th.

6th Hou
7th LA
8Th GS
9th UTAH

I know it's not happening, but LA winning tonight's game would be huge. Not just for us moving up, but to help keep OKC in the second spot. I'm scared as hell of them, feel slightly more confident against SA in the first round.
 

PBY

Banned
I know it's not happening, but LA winning tonight's game would be huge. Not just for us moving up, but to help keep OKC in the second spot. I'm scared as hell of them, feel slightly more confident against SA in the first round.

stop it.
 
I don't think we'll win tonight, but the loss is lessened by Utah's recent loss to the Bucks. Friday is a big day for the Lakers. Utah plays CHI and GS and HOU play each other. We play the Raps. Both GS and UTAH should be closer targets by the end of the week.

I think GS's schedule is pretty brutal with another game against Hou the following week. Even with home games, they have a tough schedule coming up.

IMO, the Lakers slide into the 7th.

6th Hou
7th LA
8Th GS
9th UTAH

The Warriors schedule is probably the opposite of brutal. Last 16 of 22 games are at home playing opponents on back to backs 4 times. If we win the games we should we'll keep the 6th seed pretty handily, and even if we play .500 ball 7th seed is probably the worst.

7th seed for the Lakers is pretty damn optimistic.
 
I know it's not happening, but LA winning tonight's game would be huge. Not just for us moving up, but to help keep OKC in the second spot. I'm scared as hell of them, feel slightly more confident against SA in the first round.

I'd rather be swept by OKC, thank you very much.
 
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