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2014 NBA |OT| Let's just wait it out. Be NKY/LAL fans and lose our games together.

R

Randolph Freelander

Member
OKC is going to be top 4 in the west by the time this thing is finished. The talk about them struggling to make it to the 8 seed has already proven to be laughably absurd, with them sitting only 0.5 games out.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Two Words said:
They can't get top 4 unless the current top 4 start playing a lot worse.
Click to expand...

They'll come back to the pack, OKC will steadily move up.

They're 12-13 right now, 57 games to go. Would it surprise anyone if they played 45-12 the rest of the way? How about 41-16? (They won 72% of their games last year, for example, which projects nicely to a 41-16 finish.) 41 gets them to 53 wins overall, 45 gets them to 57. Last year, 57 would have them in 3rd, 53 would have them a game back of fifth.

But again, I expect the top 4 to move back to the pack. If you project the current top 5 out to 82 games, for example, they'd win 72, 68, 64, 62, and 58 games, respectively. That's not happening, we can agree on that, right? Those teams will go through slumps, beat each other, get beat by OKC, etc., and steadily move back towards the pack.

--------------
For historical purposes, the top 8 in the WC at the time of this post, current win percentage -> 82 game projection
1.) 0.875 -> 71.75 (Golden State)
2.) 0.833 -> 68.31 (Memphis)
3.) 0.783 -> 64.21 (Houston)
4.) 0.760 -> 62.32 (Portland)
5.) 0.708 -> 58.06 (Ballmers)
6.) 0.692 -> 56.74 (Dallas)
7.) 0.680 -> 55.76 (San Antonio)
8.) 0.500 -> 41.00 (New Orleans)

The western conference is good, but it's not that good (top 7). If OKC is who we think they are, they'll pass a few of those teams. Frankly, they're already not that far back.
 
A

AcridMeat

Banned
Fjordson said:
https://twitter.com/diamond83/status/544998022074368000


Wat the fuck. That sounds horrible.
Click to expand...

Gully State said:
Streak had to end sometime... Hoping to get Bogut back. Last night just exemplified how important he is..
Click to expand...
We'll see how it's re-evaluated but if it's what was initially reported, he's going to be out and required limited minutes. Liquid in the knee bone causing pressure sounds awful.

Was working last night so missed the game, but saw the clip of the blatant travel with two technical fouls after. I would have lost it if I watched that live.
 
R

ratcliffja

Member
Two Words said:
They can't get top 4 unless the current top 4 start playing a lot worse.
Click to expand...

Trailblazers still seem like frauds to me. They've struggled against a lot of bad teams. The Clippers are playing worse than last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Thunder move in front of both of them. My guess for final standings in the West is:
1. GSW 2. Memphis 3. OKC 4. San Antonio 5. LAC 6. Houston 7. Portland 8. Dallas
 
F

Fjordson

Member
I don't think GS keeps the top spot because of Bogut's health. Unless they pull off some sort of magical trade and pick up another good big. Or if Lee comes back and is in 2012 form.
 
R

ratcliffja

Member
Fjordson said:
I don't think GS keeps the top spot because of Bogut's health. Unless they pull off some sort of magical trade and pick up another good big. Or if Lee comes back and is in 2012 form.
Click to expand...

He's important, but they shot terribly against the Grizzlies in Memphis and still had a good shot at winning that game. They will struggle with interior defense, but when they're jacking up 3s at such a crazy rate while defending 3s pretty well, they'll still win a ton of games.
 
F

Fjordson

Member
ratcliffja said:
He's important, but they shot terribly against the Grizzlies in Memphis and still had a good shot at winning that game. They will struggle with interior defense, but when they're jacking up 3s at such a crazy rate while defending 3s pretty well, they'll still win a ton of games.
Click to expand...
Maybe. But our turnovers were also abysmal. Some of them were just so incredibly braindead. It was shocking, especially in the third quarter.

Maybe I'm just too used to GS not being this good and am being too negative, but I still have a gut feeling we will end up in the 2-4 range.
 
R

ratcliffja

Member
Fjordson said:
Maybe. But our turnovers were also abysmal. Some of them were just so incredibly braindead. It was shocking, especially in the third quarter.

Maybe I'm just too used to GS not being this good and am being too negative, but I still have a gut feeling we will end up in the 2-4 range.
Click to expand...

Memphis has been built to create turnovers and make games sloppy for a long time now. If they turn it over this much against average defensive teams, then you can start to worry.
 
T

Two Words

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
They'll come back to the pack, OKC will steadily move up.

They're 12-13 right now, 57 games to go. Would it surprise anyone if they played 45-12 the rest of the way? How about 41-16? (They won 72% of their games last year, for example, which projects nicely to a 41-16 finish.) 41 gets them to 53 wins overall, 45 gets them to 57. Last year, 57 would have them in 3rd, 53 would have them a game back of fifth.

But again, I expect the top 4 to move back to the pack. If you project the current top 5 out to 82 games, for example, they'd win 72, 68, 64, 62, and 58 games, respectively. That's not happening, we can agree on that, right? Those teams will go through slumps, beat each other, get beat by OKC, etc., and steadily move back towards the pack.

--------------
For historical purposes, the top 8 in the WC at the time of this post, current win percentage -> 82 game projection
1.) 0.875 -> 71.75 (Golden State)
2.) 0.833 -> 68.31 (Memphis)
3.) 0.783 -> 64.21 (Houston)
4.) 0.760 -> 62.32 (Portland)
5.) 0.708 -> 58.06 (Ballmers)
6.) 0.692 -> 56.74 (Dallas)
7.) 0.680 -> 55.76 (San Antonio)
8.) 0.500 -> 41.00 (New Orleans)

The western conference is good, but it's not that good (top 7). If OKC is who we think they are, they'll pass a few of those teams. Frankly, they're already not that far back.
Click to expand...
My point is that OKC no longer controls their destiny in playoff positioning. They can force their way into the playoffs, but they're going to need to 4 teams to lose more to give them a spot in that. It is going to come down to how Portland plays the rest of the season.
 
G

Gully State

Member
Fjordson said:
Maybe. But our turnovers were also abysmal. Some of them were just so incredibly braindead. It was shocking, especially in the third quarter.

Maybe I'm just too used to GS not being this good and am being too negative, but I still have a gut feeling we will end up in the 2-4 range.
Click to expand...

Look at the box score last night. That 20-0 run in the second quarter by the memphis bench was what did us in. Vince Carter isn't going to go HAM from the 3 point line every night like that. Other than that we actually scored more points every other quarter.
 
F

Fjordson

Member
ratcliffja said:
Memphis has been built to create turnovers and make games sloppy for a long time now. If they turn it over this much against average defensive teams, then you can start to worry.
Click to expand...
Ehh, Memphis isn't even in the top 10 in opponent turnovers. They were good defensively last night, but what I saw was just unfathomably terrible decision making from our guards.

Thankfully it was more the timing of those third quarter TO's that hurt us as opposed to the overall number (which was surprisingly low at 14). And during the winning streak GS was down to only 13 per game (as opposed to over 20 before it) so there has been improvement.

Gully State said:
Look at the box score last night. That 20-0 run in the second quarter by the memphis bench was what did us in. Vince Carter isn't going to go HAM from the 3 point line every night like that. Other than that we actually scored more points every other quarter.
Click to expand...
Certainly, and I don't mean to suggest it was the sole reason why we lost. It was just really confusing to watch after we had been so much better with them for weeks. I mean we turned it over 6 times after halftime within just a few minutes. We're already back in the game and possibly leading if not for those.

and yes, Vince Carter. 4-7 from deep....fuck that :lol
 
W

watershed

Banned
Late to this but Derek Fisher pulled all 5 Knicks starters out of the game in the middle of the first quarter on way to another blowout loss. Now 5-22 on the season.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Two Words said:
My point is that OKC no longer controls their destiny in playoff positioning. They can force their way into the playoffs, but they're going to need to 4 teams to lose more to give them a spot in that. It is going to come down to how Portland plays the rest of the season.
Click to expand...

Well, naturally, it's predicated on the leaders not winning at the same clip they are now, but I simply take that as a given. They're not going to do it because it's not doable* for that many teams to continue winning like that. OKC is capable of winning 70, 75 percent of their games going forward, they're going to beat the people in front of them, and they'll be top 4. It's not about controlling destiny, it's about OKC being that good and the teams in front of them not being able to maintain their pace because it simply never happens.

--------------
*Going back the last 10 years, the team with the 4th most wins in the WC:

2014 - 54
2013 - 56
2012 - 41 (lockout, winning % of 0.621 projects to 51 wins)
2011 - 55
2010 - 53
2009 - 54
2008 - 54
2007 - 52*
2006 - 49*
2005 - 52*

Those earliest 3 years, the 4 seed actually had more wins than that due to the way division winners were slotted in the top 3. Dallas actually had 58 and 60 wins in 2005 and 2006, but were the 4 seeds because San Antonio won that division and Dallas was seeded 4th by default. In 2007, the 4 seed had 51 wins, but the 5 seed had 52.

--------

For what it's worth, ESPN projects out the final western conference standings (based off current results, power rankings, etc.) to

1 GS 65-17
2 Mem 57-25
3 LAC 56-26
4 Dal 53-29
5 Por 52-30
6 San 51-31
7 Hou 51-31
8 OKC 44-38

Of course, injuries, missing players, etc., heavily impact these projections, and it's doubtful that OKC finishes with just 44 wins of YNB and KD remain healthy going forward.
 
T

Two Words

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
Well, naturally, it's predicated on the leaders not winning at the same clip they are now, but I simply take that as a given. They're not going to do it because it's not doable* for that many teams to continue winning like that. OKC is capable of winning 70, 75 percent of their games going forward, they're going to beat the people in front of them, and they'll be top 4. It's not about controlling destiny, it's about OKC being that good and the teams in front of them not being able to maintain their pace because it simply never happens.

--------------
*Going back the last 10 years, the team with the 4th most wins in the WC:

2014 - 54
2013 - 56
2012 - 41 (lockout, winning % of 0.621 projects to 51 wins)
2011 - 55
2010 - 53
2009 - 54
2008 - 54
2007 - 52*
2006 - 49*
2005 - 52*

Those earliest 3 years, the 4 seed actually had more wins than that due to the way division winners were slotted in the top 3. Dallas actually had 58 and 60 wins in 2005 and 2006, but were the 4 seeds because San Antonio won that division and Dallas was seeded 4th by default. In 2007, the 4 seed had 51 wins, but the 5 seed had 52.

--------

For what it's worth, ESPN projects out the final western conference standings (based off current results, power rankings, etc.) to

1 GS 65-17
2 Mem 57-25
3 LAC 56-26
4 Dal 53-29
5 Por 52-30
6 San 51-31
7 Hou 51-31
8 OKC 44-38

Of course, injuries, missing players, etc., heavily impact these projections, and it's doubtful that OKC finishes with just 44 wins of YNB and KD remain healthy going forward.
Click to expand...
The top 4 teams don't need to keep winning at the same pace. They just can't have an exceedingly lower pace. If the tip 4 teams win 60-70% of their games, OKC can't get in winning 75% of their games.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Two Words said:
The top 4 teams don't need to keep winning at the same pace. They just can't have an exceedingly lower pace. If the tip 4 teams win 60-70% of their games, OKC can't get in winning 75% of their games.
Click to expand...

It's historically given that the top 4 teams are going to start losing more often. OKC's history and, frankly, their talent say they can win at a 72-75% clip over the next 57 games, which gets them to 53-55 wins on the season. The western conference's history says the 4th best team will finish with 51-56 wins, with 52-54 being most common. Intersect these histories. The other guys will fall, OKC will rise. The details of which particular teams fall and how they do so are largely irrelevant, but yes, some teams up top will start losing games at a far faster rate than perhaps you're personally allowing.
 
T

Two Words

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
It's historically given that the top 4 teams are going to start losing more often. OKC's history and, frankly, their talent say they can win at a 72-75% clip over the next 57 games, which gets them to 53-55 wins on the season. The western conference's history says the 4th best team will finish with 51-56 wins, with 52-54 being most common. Intersect these histories. The other guys will fall, OKC will rise. The details of which particular teams fall and how they do so are largely irrelevant, but yes, some teams up top will start losing games at a far faster rate than perhaps you're personally allowing.
Click to expand...
Just because the top 4 teams will not win at the same pace all year does NOT mean they will fall to the averages of those seeds. Averages are averages. Some years they are above, some they are below. This is looking to be an above year. Frankly, it's absurd to have the assumption that OKC will win 75% of their games, but that the top 4 West teams can't win more than 60% of the rest of their games.
 
G

Gully State

Member
GnxzH4A.jpg


This got Iggy a tech last night (from the Conley travel no-call)...
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Two Words said:
Just because the top 4 teams will not win at the same pace all year does NOT mean they will fall to the averages of those seeds. Averages are averages. Some years they are above, some they are below. This is looking to be an above year. Frankly, it's absurd to have the assumption that OKC will win 75% of their games, but that the top 4 West teams can't win more than 60% of the rest of their games.
Click to expand...

Fine, ignore history, it doesn't really matter, it's just sports. But bank on the 4 seed being in the mid 50s for wins, not the 62 that the current winning percentage suggests. I'm confident that OKC will be in that same range, barring further injuries.

As an aside, a 19-6 Portland team that wins 60% of their remaining games will finish 53-29, which fits nicely with the ESPN projection of 52-30 I referenced earlier. To dig further, Portland is 7 games up on OKC right now, which seems like a large lead. But Portland is 8-5 against the western conference, feasting on the east with an 11-1 mark. Of the top western teams, they have the least games so far in conference. (And even of their 13 western conference games, 3 of them are already somehow versus Denver.) Unfortunately, that reveals a problem, they have 18 games left against the east and 39 games against the west (but only 1 against the Nuggets). Portland has also feasted on teams with losing records. They're 14-2 against teams below .500, 5-4 against teams at or above .500, which includes 12-12 New Orleans. If you had to pick one team to return to the pack as they play tougher opponents, it's them. But I'm not picking them, I'm not picking anybody specifically. I'm just saying OKC will be in the mix for top 4 by the end, and those top 4 teams aren't all going to keep up their current pace, or anything close to it.

Edit: I made an error earlier and had them at 14-1 against sub-500 and 5-5 against +=500. I mistakenly counted Sacramento (game 2, loss) as a + team, and they aren't.
 
X

Xplatformer

Member
Gully State said:
Streak had to end sometime... Hoping to get Bogut back. Last night just exemplified how important he is..
Click to expand...

It exemplified how important it is for the Warriors to hit 3 point shots. If Steph had hit 3 more or if Draymond had hit 3 they had a shot of winning.


Can't wait for David Lee to get back so the Warriors can score garbage buckets in the paint (except against the Clippers).



Hawks are ballin'. Hope they can keep it up.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Great rebounding on that FT guys. Teletovic is awful at boxing out.

I still like the way that we match up with the Raps, even without Pierce and Lopez.
 
B

Bowser

Member
Hornets blow another 15+ point lead, fall to the Suns.

If this shit continues I can see MJ getting antsy as fuck and blowing the whole team up.
 
TheSadRanger

TheSadRanger

Banned
Soonri said:
Andre Drummond is ridiculous. He is eating the Mavs' frontline up.
Click to expand...

Drummond is an absolute beast at times, I would be interested to see him on a good team.

Maybe GS. Hell I think he'd be great for Miami that way they move Bosh out of the post and use him more as a 4.
 
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