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[PantherLotus]

I like the rubric that All Leather Must Be Boiled guy created for fan theories:

1. Why would Martin choose to make it a secret, and what would the reveal add to the books?

2. What does it communicate about the world, about the characters?

3. How does it help articulate his themes?

4. In what way does it further the narrative, or enrich the narrative, or complicate the narrative, or subvert the narrative?

5. Is it even cool, or is it just a parlor trick?

TLDR: Why the fuck does this need to be a secret that requires a theory to unravel, when it could be exactly what it fucking says it is instead?

 

[Basileus777]

Any fan theory that wasn't created within the first month of ADWD being released can probably be dismissed. With the way these books are analyzed, no one has come up with anything new that isn't crackpot or a mix of wishful thinking and over-analysis.

 

[Fuzzy]

I just call theories what they really are, fan fiction and treat them accordingly. They're there for fun and not to be taken seriously.

 

[BrassDragon]

Has there been any speculative fan theory that actually proved true in the books? I'm not talking hidden cameos like the Gravedigger and Jaqen but meaningful revelations.

From my stint on the Westeros boards, I can only remember people pegging the three-eyed crow as Bloodraven.

Other than that, I'm coming up completely blank.

 

[Basileus777]

Has there been any speculative fan theory that actually proved true in the books? I'm not talking hidden cameos like the Gravedigger and Jaqen but meaningful revelations.

From my stint on the Westeros boards, I can only remember people pegging the three-eyed crow as Bloodraven.

Other than that, I'm coming up completely blank.

Aegon being alive was right. And I always thought it was really thin and dumb. But it happened, well kind of depending on if Aegon is real or not. But it became an actual plot point either way. The three eyed crow being Bloodraven wasn't really much of a stretch though, not after AFFC when we learned he had been Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Some other smaller stuff was predicted too, like Arstan=Barristan, Littlefinger and Lysa working together. A lot of people thought Robb would be betrayed by the Boltons after ACOK, I don't think anyone nailed the Red Wedding so specifically though.

Most theories have been wrong though. I still remember that Grand Unified Conspiracy theory that was floating around after ACOK but was debunked in ASOS.

 

[BrassDragon]

Aegon being alive was right. And I always thought it was really thin and dumb. But it happened, well kind of depending on if Aegon is real or not. But it became an actual plot point either way. The three eyed crow being Bloodraven wasn't really much of a stretch though, not after AFFC when we learned he had been Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Some other smaller stuff was predicted too, like Arstan=Barristan, Littlefinger and Lysa working together. A lot of people thought Robb would be betrayed by the Boltons after ACOK, I don't think anyone nailed the Red Wedding so specifically though.

Most theories have been wrong though. I still remember that Grand Unified Conspiracy theory that was floating around after ACOK but was debunked in ASOS.

Cheers for the summary. I have several issues with the way Martin handled the introduction and sudden importance of Aegon - it seems to lack the foreshadowing that make his other twists so interesting and obvious/inevitable in hindsight.

But my biggest gripe is that it fuels the fires of tedious secret Targ speculation. Please GRRM, don't encourage them!

 

[Chuckie]

Aegon being alive was right. And I always thought it was really thin and dumb. But it happened, well kind of depending on if Aegon is real or not.

How did they come up with this theory? I was really surprised with the introduction of Aegon and instantly thought... is this the real deal?

So was 'their' theory actually founded on some real foreshadowing (that I totally missed) or was it more a case of even a broken clock is right twice a day?

 

[SamVimes]

It was mentioned a lot of times that Aegon was disfigured to the point of being impossible to identify.

 

[Basileus777]

How did they come up with this theory? I was really surprised with the introduction of Aegon and instantly thought... is this the real deal?

So was 'their' theory actually founded on some real foreshadowing (that I totally missed) or was it more a case of even a broken clock is right twice a day?

I think it was mostly a case of a broken clock being right twice a day. Other than the vision about the mummer's dragon, which isn't so specifically related to Aegon except in hindsight, I can't even remember what the evidence was. It wasn't until the ADWD preview chapters came along and Connington and Young Griff were mentioned that the theory had much to back it.

 

[BrassDragon]

With regards to Aegon, GRRM could have done more foreshadowing in the scenes with Varys and Illyrio. Having just re-read the first two books, I can't find any detail that makes you go 'aha'.

Maybe it's nitpicking but I feel many other twists had much more elegant setups and payoffs.It's not a complete ass pull, of course... but the way this major player is introduced just doesn't meet the bar the series has set for itself.

 

[Chuckie]

I think it was mostly a case of a broken clock being right twice a day. Other than the vision about the mummer's dragon, which isn't so specifically related to Aegon except in hindsight, I can't even remember what the evidence was. It wasn't until the ADWD preview chapters came along and Connington and Young Griff were mentioned that the theory had much to back it.

Yeah kind of thought so.

Maybe it's nitpicking but I feel many other twists had much more elegant setups and payoffs.It's not a complete ass pull, of course... but the way this major player is introduced just doesn't meet the bar the series has set for itself.

I totally agree with you. This felt like a (rather bad) plot-twist out of nowhere.

 

[Reyne]

One might say that Martin himself was fanning the flames by being purposefully definite on Rhaenys death, but quiet on Aegon.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1106/

I was wondering if you could answer (or take the "fifth") one teeny little question I've been dying to ask for the past year: Are Aegon and Rhaenys, Elia's children, well and truly dead?

All I have to say is that there is absolutely no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was dragged from beneath her father's bed and slain.

In the end, it is what he didn't say that was so interesting. Its no wonder people were all over Aegon, years before he would become relevant to the story. Still, I agree there isn't really much in the books to foreshadow his coming. Of course, our Aegon probably being fake anyway might have something to do with that.

 

[Chuckie]

Question: How many sample chapters have there been for Winds of Winter and are they still available somewhere? I can only find Mercy.

 

[BrassDragon]

Question: How many sample chapters have there been for Winds of Winter and are they still available somewhere? I can only find Mercy.

- Barristan Selmy I, included in A Dance With Dragons paperback
- Tyrion Lannister I, read at Miscon 2012
- Victarion Greyjoy, read at Miscon 2012
- Barristan Selmy II, read at Boskone 50 in February 2013
- Tyrion Lannister II, released with the World of Ice and Fire app
- Theon, posted on Martin’s site but removed (mirror)
- Arianne Martell I, posted Martin’s site but removed (mirror)
- Arianne Martell II, read at Worldcon 2011
- Mercy, posted on Martin’s site

 

[Aiii]

Question: How many sample chapters have there been for Winds of Winter and are they still available somewhere? I can only find Mercy.

Check your PM mate.

 

[Hammer24]

Check your PM mate.

Now that´s a PM I´d love to see!

 

[SamVimes]

Did Martin ever say if we're ever gonna find out for sure who sent Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Blackwater?

 

[Jayof9s]

Did Martin ever say if we're ever gonna find out for sure who sent Mandon Moore to kill Tyrion during the Blackwater?

I thought it was pretty much confirmed to be Cersei? I could be remembering wrong though...

 

[SamVimes]

Cersei would have probably thought about it during her AFFC chapter, it must be someone else. I'm thinking Littlefinger, he knew that Tyrion knew about the dagger and he probably hated him anyway.

 

[Bread]

Good news, everyone.

what value!

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

So that R+L = J vid was helpful, but isn't all moot since Jonny's dead, or, at best, a wolf?

Wolfking?

Is the idea that he'd be able to Warg a dragon?

 

[Chuckie]

So that R+L = J vid was helpful, but isn't all moot since Jonny's dead, or, at best, a wolf?

Wolfking?

Is the idea that he'd be able to Warg a dragon?

Well we know nothing (much like Jon Snow) but I think he will be 'resurrected' by Melissandre or something like that.

 

[Jayof9s]

Yeah, Jon is either going to miraculously survive or come back to life somehow. He's certainly not gone for good.

 

[Loke13]

So that R+L = J vid was helpful, but isn't all moot since Jonny's dead, or, at best, a wolf?

Wolfking?

Is the idea that he'd be able to Warg a dragon?

I highly doubt Martin will let Jon remain dead/a wolf for the last two books of the series.

 

[Morrigan Stark]

From my stint on the Westeros boards, I can only remember people pegging the three-eyed crow as Bloodraven.

Other than that, I'm coming up completely blank.

Aegon being alive. This one surprised (and disappointed) me, I thought it was BS, despite GRRM's coy answer in the interview.

Aegon being alive was right. And I always thought it was really thin and dumb. But it happened, well kind of depending on if Aegon is real or not. But it became an actual plot point either way. The three eyed crow being Bloodraven wasn't really much of a stretch though, not after AFFC when we learned he had been Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. Some other smaller stuff was predicted too, like Arstan=Barristan, Littlefinger and Lysa working together. A lot of people thought Robb would be betrayed by the Boltons after ACOK, I don't think anyone nailed the Red Wedding so specifically though.

Most theories have been wrong though. I still remember that Grand Unified Conspiracy theory that was floating around after ACOK but was debunked in ASOS.

Hah, funny to see someone who was around for the theories between ACoK and ASoS. I started reading the books after ASoS came out. That's still fourteen goddamn years ago, ugh.

What was the Grand Unified Conspiracy?

 

[Martian]

Man, I love the amount of detail GRRM puts into his books.

The countless nods and references and foreshadowings are really great. I love when books have multiple layers like that.

Still have yet to find a (major) plothole. If only more books were written this way

 

[butzopower]

So that R+L = J vid was helpful, but isn't all moot since Jonny's dead, or, at best, a wolf?

Wolfking?

Is the idea that he'd be able to Warg a dragon?

Patchface.

 

[Dual Blade]

So that R+L = J vid was helpful, but isn't all moot since Jonny's dead, or, at best, a wolf?

Wolfking?

Is the idea that he'd be able to Warg a dragon?

Yeah we all doubt he's dead. Either he is somehow still alive, dead and revived like stoneheart and thus released from his oaths, or reborn as Azor.

 

[Brakke]

Man, I love the amount of detail GRRM puts into his books.

The countless nods and references and foreshadowings are really great. I love when books have multiple layers like that.

Still have yet to find a (major) plothole. If only more books were written this way

Funnily, this is the same pleasure I get from reading Harry Potter. Seeing such a sprawling thing executing with so much... I dunno, "intention"?--is just so satisfying. Love watching things click into place smoothly.

 

[Basileus777]

Aegon being alive. This one surprised (and disappointed) me, I thought it was BS, despite GRRM's coy answer in the interview.


Hah, funny to see someone who was around for the theories between ACoK and ASoS. I started reading the books after ASoS came out. That's still fourteen goddamn years ago, ugh.

What was the Grand Unified Conspiracy?

It was basically a theory that Littlefinger was behind everything. But it was wrong about Bran's assassination attempt and some of the other details, even if Littlefinger was behind quite a lot. Though I don't think anyone predicted Joffery as the "mastermind" behind Bran's assassination.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Has there been any speculative fan theory that actually proved true in the books? I'm not talking hidden cameos like the Gravedigger and Jaqen but meaningful revelations.

From my stint on the Westeros boards, I can only remember people pegging the three-eyed crow as Bloodraven.

Other than that, I'm coming up completely blank.

Aegon being alive (fake) was called after ACOK came out, due to the HOTU. People also figured out that Griff was Jon Connington back in 2008 or so when that Tyrion sample was released.

The Bloodraven one is probably the big one imo. Of course, the biggest will ultimately be R+L=J. And I believe Elio is right about Dawn being Lightbringer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXFKmw3iNio

 

[Brakke]

And I believe Elio is right about Dawn being Lightbringer.

Huh. I missed this whole Dawn-isn't-dragonsteel thing.

Darkstar is Azor Ahai confirmed??

 

[Basileus777]

Huh. I missed this whole Dawn-isn't-dragonsteel thing.

Darkstar is Azor Ahai confirmed??

He's the Great Other.

 

[Jayof9s]

He's the Great Other.

whynotboth.gif

 

[Martian]

I never knew much about metallurgy, so this might be common knowledge, but apperently Damascus Steel (a real thing) has the same waves along the metal as Valyrian steel. Probably where GRRM got his inspiration from, pretty neat!

 

[BrassDragon]

I never knew much about metallurgy, so this might be common knowledge, but apperently Damascus Steel (a real thing) has the same waves along the metal as Valyrian steel. Probably where GRRM got his inspiration from, pretty neat!

There's a forge making replica swords from the books and series, Valryian Steel. They make Damascene versions of their blades for the same reason.

 

[butzopower]

Probably where GRRM got his inspiration from, pretty neat!

It is known.

EDIT: Actually, it is unknown, the original technique for making Damascus Steel was actually lost to antiquity, not unlike Valaryian Steel.

 

[Boom Boom Pow]

It is known.

EDIT: Actually, it is unknown, the original technique for making Damascus Steel was actually lost to antiquity, not unlike Valaryian Steel.

why not just say, "like valyrian steel?"

lol, not unlike seems so much harder

 

[Morrigan Stark]

"Like" implies it's exactly identical. "Not unlike" implies it's similar, but probably not identical.

That's how I read it anyway.

By the way, that wave/grain pattern is also found in katanas. It's what happens when you fold high-carbon steel:

So beautiful. <3

 

[Kuraudo]

UK ASoIaF Facebook page updated with a cover for World of Ice and Fire and an October release date. Anyone know if this is confirmed or is it likely to be pushed back?

 

[Zoso Achilles]

UK ASoIaF Facebook page updated with a cover for World of Ice and Fire and an October release date. Anyone know if this is confirmed or is it likely to be pushed back?

October of this year? No way.

 

[Pluto]

October of this year? No way.

I'm pretty sure that's confirmed, I preordered the US edition months ago and amazon has listed October 23rd as a release date for quite some time.

 

[Basileus777]

October of this year? No way.

GRRM has done his part, so we might be safe from further delays!

 

[RobotChant]

GRRM confirmed World of Ice and Fire was finished in March. It's now in the hands of the publisher to get the art and editing done. I don't think there should be any delays since there are already sample pages released.

 

[aravuus]

Bought a Kindle and all the SOIAF books for it

Just came to post this cause I'm really goddamn excited and I had to tell someone

 

[TCRS]

Bought a Kindle and all the SOIAF books for it

Just came to post this cause I'm really goddamn excited and I had to tell someone

and now get out of here because there are absolutely no spoiler tags here (except for TWOW chapters)

man I wish I could read the books for the first time again. what an amazing journey.

 

[NeoGiff]

Cross-posting from the TV thread, because it concerns R+L=J:

In a new interview with MTV, Sean Bean straight up confirmed the Jon Snow theory.

"I'm obviously not Jon Snow's dad. And you need that to be revealed at some point, don't you? So Bran would kind of be the one having the flashback, and he would see Ned praying, right? And revealing those things?"

The interview concerns his wishes to return to the show...hopefully he hasn't squandered them with this remark. At the same time, it may simply be an optimistic guess on his behalf.

 

[Basileus777]

Cross-posting from the TV thread, because it concerns R+L=J:

In a new interview with MTV, Sean Bean straight up confirmed the Jon Snow theory.



The interview concerns his wishes to return to the show...hopefully he hasn't squandered them with this remark. At the same time, it may simply be an optimistic guess on his behalf.

He confirmed it in an interview after the first season anyway. I doubt the showrunners care, it's been known since the mid 90s.

 

[Zoso Achilles]

I'm pretty sure that's confirmed, I preordered the US edition months ago and amazon has listed October 23rd as a release date for quite some time.

Whoops, I didn't read well enough. I was thinking TWOW, carry on!

 

[The Artful Dodger]

Haven't been here...So we're speculating on R+L= J theory?

Lol, Offseason.