Puddles said:Jon should have really pressed the argument that anyone who dies north of the Wall is potentially a wight. He said that once, but he never really hammered the point home. I think he would have gotten more support if he approached it from that angle the entire time.
All of the things he was able to do derived from his position with the watch. What is he going to do, go be a super commando on his own now? His power derives from his ability to command the watch. Unless he raises the north, which he already expressly rejected when presented with the opportunity. Jon's decision at the end of dwd shat all over the awesome choices he made in the first 4 books.shintoki said:Jon's death frees him up from his hands being tied. As long as he was commander of the Night Watch. He couldn't leave or doing anything, other than balance in the middle of the see-saw.
Gonaria said:Yup, beat them over the head with the practical nature of it. 'Sure, a few or a few hundred wildings might betray us, but that is a whole lot better than a 10,000 wights. We rob them of strength and and to ours. If a few betray us, that is a small price to pay.' Sucks that his decision to go south might totally undermine all of that, and its rather interesting that Mellisandre was a major part of that because without her, I doubt he gets that letter. I wonder what she is going to do
Mockingbird said:But he has no choice but to go South. He doesn't have any of the people that Ramsay wants, so if he doesn't go South, Ramsay will march North on the wall. Him going South is to prevent a war between The Wall and The Boltons.
Mockingbird said:But he has no choice but to go South. He doesn't have any of the people that Ramsay wants, so if he doesn't go South, Ramsay will march North on the wall. Him going South is to prevent a war between The Wall and The Boltons.
Gonaria said:Then you write a letter saying that you dont have any of those people and then send a few scouts down to see if he is marching north, and if he does, then you go down to meet him. The Lord Commander can't be the one to attack first. If he would have done that, it might not have ended badly for him since until then, he hadnt really betrayed his oaths.
How about send scouts out to see if stannis is dead, whether winterfell has really fallen, and or whether ramsay is actually marching for the wall before you go all braveheart with the wildlings and run off by yourself? It was stupid.Mockingbird said:Writing a letter won't do anything. The Bastard of Bolton already thinks Jon Snow's a liar as he sent Mance to steal Jeyne Poole -- which Jon thought was arya Stark -- from him. Since they're not with Stannis, they must be with him, is what Bolton assumes. This is provided that Stannis really is dead.
Mockingbird said:Writing a letter won't do anything. The Bastard of Bolton already thinks Jon Snow's a liar as he sent Mance to steal Jeyne Poole -- which Jon thought was arya Stark -- from him. Since they're not with Stannis, they must be with him, is what Bolton assumes.
Puddles said:I know Sam is heading south and Rast is dead, but what happened to his other fellow-cadets?
Grenn and pyp were sent to eastwatch iirc in adwd.Puddles said:I know Sam is heading south and Rast is dead, but what happened to his other fellow-cadets?
Ooh, that might be a nice theory. Well done. Not sure I believe it, but it makes some evil sense.squicken said:I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.
My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.
squicken said:I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.
My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.
elrechazao said:Ooh, that might be a nice theory. Well done. Not sure I believe it, but it makes some evil sense.
Yea it would be a good way to lead to Littlefingers eventual downfall. i don't see him lasting long, especially if and when Sansa learns about fake arya and what littlefinger did to her father. Having the blackfish there to help her and make littlefinger shit himself would make it all the better.KuwabaraTheMan said:Going to the Vale would make some sense. He has a lot of friends there (and no Lannisters crawling about like in the Riverlands), and it would give him an opportunity to discover Sansa's existence (or possibly to join up Bronze Yohn in fighting against Littlefinger).
squicken said:I have no doubt Ramsay didn't send the letter. If you go back and read where he wrote letters to people, it's always mentioned how a piece of brown skin falls out of the parchment as its opened. If he had Mance, he would have flayed him as he flayed Theon.
Now as to the exact motives of Mance and Melly, that's just my crazy guess.
bengraven said:Going back to her betrayels, I wonder if Dany's betrayel for love might be Daario?
I mean, that he actually loves her is up for debate and few of us think he actually cares about anything but power and sex, but what if he actually does love her and will betray her because she married someone else and he's hurt?
KuwabaraTheMan said:Him being flung over the walls via catapult in Barristan's last chapters puts a lid on any Daario betrayal, I think.
He was a red herring. Everyone expected him to be one of the betrayals (even Dany thinks about he's probably going to be one of them), and then it wound up being Brown Ben Plumm.
Lirlond said:Just finished after it arrived late(Fuck bookdepository, seriously), and I fucking loved it. Sure the Wall chapters weren't that great, and every chapter but the last two of dany's sucked(though that seems to be the trend) I loved the reveal of Aegon and Connington, I fucking /knew/ Connington was up to something.
I think Boltons letter was planted from within the watch, designed to trip up Snow and give the watch reason to backstab him. Theres no mention of a seal, just "Sealed with pink wax", so its very possible.
Oh well. Time to hibernate for the 3 years(lol) it takes to write TWoW
elrechazao said:How about send scouts out to see if stannis is dead, whether winterfell has really fallen, and or whether ramsay is actually marching for the wall before you go all braveheart with the wildlings and run off by yourself? It was stupid.
Sending scouts to see if someone is attacking the wall is not ordering them to take part in the war. Not sure why you think that makes sense at all.Mockingbird said:He can't send scouts. It would be ordering them to take part in the war.
Count of Monte Sawed-Off said:edit: I'd say Jon had the best chapter in the book. The one where he kills Slynt. I loved that. Other than that his chapters were pretty repetitive. Not necessarily bad, just reptitive. Theon may have had the best chapters. Arya's were pretty good. Her and Selmy's were the only Essos chapters I enjoyed aside from Quentyn's last. Tyrion had his moments but overall his were pretty weak and Dany's just plain sucked. Everyone else was alright.
squicken said:I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think Ramsay sent that letter. As I mentioned earlier, every other letter he wrote contained a piece of flayed skin. The letter to Jon did not.
My guess is that Melly orchestrated an elaborate scheme, both at the Wall and with Mance at Winterfell, to get Jon to out of the Watch. All the things in the letter Ramsay shouldn't have known about make sense if written by Mance, and we know that crystal has power over him. Either Mance wrote it himself, or forced Ramsay to write it.
elrechazao said:Sending scouts to see if someone is attacking the wall is not ordering them to take part in the war. Not sure why you think that makes sense at all.
Gonaria said:I really don't think Marsh or Yarwick wrote that letter. Mostly because I don't think either of it has it in him and I think Marsh truly regretted having to do what he did. Besides those two, who else? Thorne was sent away and doesnt have the knowledge, the same with other Slynt's cronnies. Only Mel and Mance knew that Mance was sent down to the south to rescue Ayra. Either it was someone in Winterfell - Ramsey or Mance, or it was Mel. My money is on Mel
Uhh, there's one way from winterfell to castle black. Sending 3 scouts with 5 ravens (something they've already done) isn't hard, and you keep assuming that scouts means they'll go attack and or get caught by ramsay's army for some reason....makes no sense. Do you know what scout means?Mockingbird said:What would sending scouts do? They've no idea where Stannis' men are. The only course for the scouts is go to Winterfell and do nothing but waste more time and potentially have Ramsay march on the wall by then. Not to mention the storm that's going on and potentially having the scouts die and not even make it to Winterfell. Jon goes, disconnects himself from the watch, thereby distancing the Watch from any danger.
Mockingbird said:What would sending scouts do? They've no idea where Stannis' men are. The only course for the scouts is go to Winterfell and do nothing but waste more time and potentially have Ramsay march on the wall by then. Not to mention the storm that's going on and potentially having the scouts die and not even make it to Winterfell. Jon goes, disconnects himself from the watch, thereby distancing the Watch from any danger.
That would be totally out of character. It's definitely from Bolton.
elrechazao said:Uhh, there's one way from winterfell to castle black. Sending 3 scouts with 5 ravens (something they've already done) isn't hard, and you keep assuming that scouts means they'll go attack and or get caught by ramsay's army for some reason....makes no sense. Do you know what scout means?
Gonaria said:How so? Like others have said, this letter did not contain a piece of human skin so being from Ramsey is suspect.
uhhh...ok. btw, once? You need to reread.Mockingbird said:Did I say the scouts were to attack or engage the boltons? I didn't say the scouts were envoys. The storm could kill the men before even arriving, but now that you mention it, it's possible for them to be caught and flayed by the Boltons as well.
You seem to be missing out on the fact that Bolton's quarrel is with Snow and not the Watch. Ramsay will only march on the wall if Jon Snow doesn't give him what he wants. Sending scouts would be asking them to take part in something that was never a matter of the Night's Watch -- only a personal matter of Jon Snow.
Scouting is very pointless. Scouts can't confirm Stannis is dead unless they happen upon Stannis -- but they've no idea where he would be. The scouts would know where Winterfell is and they can confirm there's an army at Winterfell and that's it. If they see that the Bolton's are marching on the wall they could ride back to the wall post haste and tell them the Bolton's are coming but at best they'd be a day or two ahead of the army -- which would be pointless. Scouting from the Wall when you're hundreds of leagues away is pointless unless you plan to sit and wait for the enemy to come to you -- which is not an option. If the Watch is attacked from the South it'll be a slaughter. Better to not have them march on you at all by going to him.
Jon's best course is to go meet Bolton away from the wall. The conclusion he came to after two hours of deliberating with Tormund.
The skin thing happened once. Not all of his letters need have skin.
Mockingbird said:Did I say the scouts were to attack or engage the boltons? I didn't say the scouts were envoys. The storm could kill the men before even arriving, but now that you mention it, it's possible for them to be caught and flayed by the Boltons as well.
You seem to be missing out on the fact that Bolton's quarrel is with Snow and not the Watch. Ramsay will only march on the wall if Jon Snow doesn't give him what he wants. Sending scouts would be asking them to take part in something that was never a matter of the Night's Watch -- only a personal matter of Jon Snow.
Scouting is very pointless. Scouts can't confirm Stannis is dead unless they happen upon Stannis -- but they've no idea where he would be. The scouts would know where Winterfell is and they can confirm there's an army at Winterfell and that's it. If they see that the Bolton's are marching on the wall they could ride back to the wall post haste and tell them the Bolton's are coming but at best they'd be a day or two ahead of the army -- which would be pointless. Scouting from the Wall when you're hundreds of leagues away is pointless unless you plan to sit and wait for the enemy to come to you -- which is not an option. If the Watch is attacked from the South it'll be a slaughter. Better to not have them march on you at all by going to him.
Jon's best course is to go meet Bolton away from the wall. The conclusion he came to after two hours of deliberating with Tormund.
jett said:When I read the book I had no reason to believe the letter was from anyone but Bolton. I guess you guys have planted some doubt in me but Bolton really is who makes most sense.
BTW, Robert Strong is obviously the Mountain, right? Or some sort of Frankenstenian monster.
jett said:When I read the book I had no reason to believe the letter was from anyone but Bolton. I guess you guys have planted some doubt in me but Bolton really is who makes most sense.
BTW, Robert Strong is obviously the Mountain, right? Or some sort of Frankenstenian monster.
Gonaria said:You dont seem to understand that Snow is the Lord Commander of the Night's watch so any quarrel with him is a quarrel with the Night's Watch. The two are tied together and cannot be undone.
Gonaria said:Sending scouts will not make them complicit or be pointless. The point is to see whether Bolton makes good on his threat and attacks, so the NW has ample warning. It is not to find out the exact truth of the letter - whether Stannis is dead, etc, just if he comes to carry out his threat against the NW. They don't go down to Winter fell to do that. They just go far enough to give the Watch ample warning if they spot Bolton on the road. They would give them ample warning by taking ravens so they would have more than a day or two to prepare.
Attacking Bolton is a betrayal of Jon's oath. The only way he avoids that and retains the loyalty of the Watch who disagree with him is to wait for Bolton to attack him first so he can be seen as defending himself, and claim that the letter's contents about Mance is a lie, a pretense for Bolton to attack Stannis's forces here.
I was wondering how Mel knows about Reek and Ayra, but I guess she could see that in her fires.
elrechazao said:uhhh...ok. btw, once? You need to reread.
Mockingbird said:What? You don't seem to understand that this is not the case. Jon sending Mance out to fetch arya was a secret not known to the Watch. He tried to one up Bolton with deceit and this has nothing to do with the watch. The Watch need not stand by the commander since he foreswore his vows in doing this.
In the case Jon stays it's not a matter of whether the Boltons WILL march on the Wall if Jon doesn't give him his bride, but a matter of WHEN. Sending scouts, as I said earlier, will let you know when the Boltons march but the scouts can at best stay ahead of the army by a few days. Even with the ravens it's ultimately pointless because the Watch is defenseless when attacked from the South. It'd be a slaughter no matter what should they fight from the Wall. Jon going there will keep the Boltons from ever marching in the first place and disconnect the Night's Watch from the war.
Did he do it one other time in Book 3? I only recall him doing it to Theon, but it's been a while since I've read a storm of swords.
iammeiam said:After thinking about why Dany's stuff was so weak, I sort of wonder if she was a total victim of the decision to not skip five years. Having her spend five years off-camera basically training for ruling the Seven Kingdoms by trying to get shit in Meereen together and ultimately failing makes sense, and things could have picked up right before her wedding or something. Two pages of her fucking Daario, the revelation that the dragons started to eat people and she's had them locked up for years, then into the wedding/fighting pits/post-flight stuff so she can get back to actually doing things. I'm assuming there's some plot-related thing that has to happen before she can actually leave for Westeros, and most of her chapters in this book are just status updates while she idles around waiting for... whatever interesting thing is coming.
Puddles said:I've been thinking a lot about this. Here's the conclusion I came to.
The conflict in Westeros will be over pretty quickly once Dany lands with dragons. They aren't even fully grown yet, and they can already slaughter people by the hundreds. The Tyrells, Lannisters, etc wouldn't stand a chance in battle. There was no way Dany could have entered Westeros in one of the early books like everyone wanted (though I was hoping she would at least be on her way by the end of ADWD).
Puddles said:I've been thinking a lot about this. Here's the conclusion I came to.
The conflict in Westeros will be over pretty quickly once Dany lands with dragons. They aren't even fully grown yet, and they can already slaughter people by the hundreds. The Tyrells, Lannisters, etc wouldn't stand a chance in battle. There was no way Dany could have entered Westeros in one of the early books like everyone wanted (though I was hoping she would at least be on her way by the end of ADWD).
And when it does, everyone will eat crow.tino said:But the marking the winner of the iron throne is not ultimate plot of the series, the battle between the Others and Men/Children of Forest is. Even secrets of Lyanna/Ashara are more important than the iron throne.
There is no way this series can end in 2 books.
I never looked at it that way, but it's so fucking true! That's awesome. Kudos to Martin.Puddles said:Actually, I really loved the whole Mereen vs Yunkai + everyone else with a hand in the slave trade cookie jar conflict. The build-up was fantastic, IMO. I just wish it had ended with an actual battle.
As an aside, the way that people from the free cities talk to Dany to try to trick and manipulate her is, in my experience, EXACTLY the way people in India and the Middle East do it. "Oh, but these people are not to be trusted! You are a stranger here, you do not know our ways. These people will make much trouble for you! You can trust me though, I will help you, I will make a good price for you!" Well, maybe that last line wasn't in the books, but everything else sure was. =p
Gonaria said:I really don't think Marsh or Yarwick wrote that letter. Mostly because I don't think either of it has it in him and I think Marsh truly regretted having to do what he did. Besides those two, who else? Thorne was sent away and doesnt have the knowledge, the same with other Slynt's cronnies. Only Mel and Mance knew that Mance was sent down to the south to rescue Ayra. Either it was someone in Winterfell - Ramsey or Mance, or it was Mel. My money is on Mel