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[Mariolee]

What in the world is happening rigbt now?

 

[chugen]

damn...

 

[killerpenguin]

Relevant to some of the discussion in here: BBC News - How odd is a cluster of plane accidents?

Harro Ranter, director of the Aviation Safety Network which catalogues plane crashes, says clusters of accidents are not unusual. Analysing the number and frequency of fatal crashes of aircraft capable of carrying 14 or more passengers since 1990, he finds 45 dates when there have been two or more crashes (excluding collisions).

In 105 cases there have been accidents on consecutive days. In fact, Ranter says it is more common for an accident to happen just one day after another crash than two, three or more days later.

Barnett, a Professor of Statistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ... calculates that in developed countries the chance of dying is about one in 25 million per flight. "A child at a UK airport is more likely to grow up to be prime minister than perish on the forthcoming flight... the child is more likely to win an Olympic gold medal or receive the Nobel prize in physics."

As for the occurrence of three fatal crashes in eight days, David Spiegelhalter, Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University, has worked out that there is about a six in 10 chance that we should see such a large cluster during a 10-year period, and "the most likely maximum number of crashes of commercial planes with over 18 passengers in any eight-day window over 10 years is exactly three".

 

[Prez]

Relevant to some of the discussion in here: BBC News - How odd is a cluster of plane accidents?

Odds of crashing in a single flight vs odds of being PM or winning the Nobel prize in an entire lifetime. Terrible comparison.