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[JohnnySasaki86]

In a note to investors today, Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia said the game's recent delay will add to its development costs, but does nothing to blunt its potential success.

Bhatia detailed a "hypothetical profitability model" for GTA V based on an estimated development cost of $137.5 million (representing a team of 250 people working on the project for five years).

At the moment, Bhatia believes GTA V will sell 18 million units in Take-Two's fiscal year, saying it's likely to be the best-selling game of the year. Bhatia suggested it could be second only to the next Call of Duty, which he identified as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4.

I didn't see this posted. Lock if old.

To the bolded: His logic here seems flawed. Does he really think there was a costant 250 people on the project for 5 years? They likely didn't hit that amount tell 2 years ago when they went into full production. Regardless I'm not saying GTAV couldn't have a budget in excess of 100M, as GTAIV was said to have a budget of ~$100M.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-02-01-gta-v-dev-costs-over-USD137-million-says-analyst

 

[StuBurns]

GTA4 was 100M, this has taken longer, so yeah, probably.

 

[Baconsammy]

They can afford that after Microsoft moneyhatted the next gen version.

 

[Shayan]

I didn't see this posted. Lock if old.

To the bolded: His logic here seems flawed. Does he really think there was a costant 250 people on the project for 5 years? They likely didn't hit that amount tell 2 years ago when they went into full production. Regardless I'm not saying GTAV couldn't have a budget in excess of 100M, as GTAIV was said to have a budget of ~$100M.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-02-01-gta-v-dev-costs-over-USD137-million-says-analyst

Its a big franchise for sure but outsell COD?

Nope since FPS is the most loved genre atm and would remain so for another 5 years atleast

 

[Fezzan]

They can afford that after Microsoft moneyhatted the next gen version.

HA.

But I wouldn't be surprised if this was true.

 

[Solo]

Gimme dat $200M Vice City 2 for 720/PS4/PC.

 

[DR2K]

They can afford that after Microsoft moneyhatted the next gen version.

They can afford it because the last GTA sold over 10million copies.

This is a drop in the bucket compared to the profits they'll be making.

 

[neptunes]

Was there ever been a GTA that was released this late in a generation?

 

[Gorillaz]

They can afford that after Microsoft moneyhatted the next gen version.

Rockstar was a little sour about the whole moneyhatting thing with GTA 4 so I wouldn't hold your breath on either MS/Sony getting rights to it.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

that sounds about right tbh

Was there ever been a GTA that was released this late in a generation?

San Andreas? The best selling GTA game ever?

 

[Iacobellis]

Next year? Did it get delayed again?

 

[TimeEffect]

Its a big franchise for sure but outsell COD?

Nope since FPS is the most loved genre atm and would remain so for another 5 years atleast

But it's Grand Theft Auto. Unprecedented freedom, huge fanbase going back 10+ years, appeals to children and adults alike, will sell well on PC's, open-ended, fresh, and actually likely to be a genuinely good game.

 

[StuBurns]

Was there ever been a GTA that was released this late in a generation?

No, not really anyway. GTA:LCS for PS2 was the summer before PS3 launched.

 

[Shayan]

HA.

But I wouldn't be surprised if this was true.

thats most likely false as the other guy pointed out . The game will sell 10m + on all consoles which is more than enough to recover the PP

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

Its a big franchise for sure but outsell COD?

Nope since FPS is the most loved genre atm and would remain so for another 5 years atleast

Yea, didn't Blops 2 already sell close to 20million? So if hes predicting GTAV to sell 18million...

No, not really anyway. GTA:LCS for PS2 was the summer before PS3 launched.

When did San Andreas release?

 

[Vulcano's assistant]

I believe it, there isn't a new GTA every year after all. No PC version yet though...

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I do not believe this prediction.

 

[pixlexic]

I just hope it is A LOT better than 4.

 

[Darkkn]

Well at least the money spent is visible in a GTA games, unlike say SWTOR.
Why not spend to make sure the title will hit the quality that people expect and reap almost certain massive profits(if the quality is there).

 

[Baconsammy]

Is there going to be a PC version? If so, is there anything to stop them from essentially porting that superior version to the next gen consoles when they release?

I just hope it is A LOT better than 4.

We all do. We all do. Please no more tales of slavic immigrants...snooooze.

 

[Shayan]

But it's Grand Theft Auto. Unprecedented freedom, huge fanbase going back 10+ years, appeals to children and adults alike, will sell well on PC's, open-ended, fresh, and actually likely to be a genuinely good game.

It is GTA i know but COD/BF have become bigger franchises in terms of sales.

 

[Fezzan]

They can afford it because the last GTA sold over 10million copies.

This is a drop in the bucket compared to the profits they'll be making.

20 Million+.

10 Million is RDR territory.

 

[Lunchbox]

you're not touching cod bro

keep dreaming

 

[StuBurns]

When did San Andreas release?

October '04 on PS2, June '05 on Xbox, so actually, that's a closer example really.

 

[Piggus]

Yea, didn't Blops 2 already sell close to 20million? So if hes predicting GTAV to sell 18million...



When did San Andreas release?

SA was October 2004

Edit: too slow

 

[Shayan]

Yea, didn't Blops 2 already sell close to 20million? So if hes predicting GTAV to sell 18million...



When did San Andreas release?

BLOPS 2 sold like 20m in the first month of its release alone. dont know what the numbers are right now but cod games sell throughout the year . BF has also become a monstrous franchise too

 

[Fezzan]

BLOPS 2 sold like 20m in the first month of its release alone. dont know what the numbers are right now but cod games sell throughout the year . BF has also become a monstrous franchise too

No it didn't.

 

[MrTroubleMaker]

I hope it does outsell cod, I want more GTA's

 

[Augustus]

It shouldnt cost as much as IV, as they have the engine already built this time.

 

[Protome]

CoD is on more platforms than GTA though, so it'll sell more.

Spoiler

ALL DEM WII U SALES

Spoiler

lol

 

[neptunes]

that sounds about right tbh



San Andreas? The best selling GTA game ever?

PS2 launch > GTA:SA = 4 years
PS3 launch > GTA: V. = ?

 

[Keyser Soze]

Maybe they can use some of that total to actually pay the voice talent this time round

 

[Derrick01]

I just hope it is A LOT better than 4.

That's guaranteed to happen.

 

[Baconsammy]

It shouldnt cost as much as IV, as they have the engine already built this time.

Yeah but the engine runs like shit on PS3 and 360. It was bad enough fighting the new steering, but also fighting the lag introduced by the shitty framerate was too much.

 

[mentalfloss]

137 mil? Holy crap.. and costs will be double that next gen.

How are third parties going to survive?

 

[Fezzan]

Maybe they can use some of that total to actually pay the voice talent this time round

They get paid enough, it's just when they learn the game is bigger they feel cheated.
Dan Houser correctly says they can fuck off.

137 mil? Holy crap.. and costs will be double that next gen.

How are third parties going to survive?

Only the Wii-U can save us now.

 

[cuyahoga]

The budget is almost certainly nine figures, but he doesn't have any clue what he is talking about. A team of 250 didn't work on this for five years—the core team at Rockstar North of 100-150 spent started work on this in 2009 IIRC. Also, peak headcount of worldwide development is around a 1000 people, which is really how the salaries add up.

 

[Darkkn]

137 mil? Holy crap.. and costs will be double that next gen.

How are third parties going to survive?

Costs will not magically double. Costs will only go up if publishers have more money to spend. Can't go up otherwise. Nobody will invest more into making games than they think they can reasonably make back.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

No it didn't.

Yea I don't know about 1st month, but it did it in 3months. This guy expecting GTAV to do 18M in about 6 months(sep 17th- March 31st). So either hes expecting the next COD to fall of a cliff compared to blops2(expecting it sell at least 4M less I guess), or he didn't do his research very well.

 

[abundant]

20 Million+.

10 Million is RDR territory.

It's 25 Million+ to be more accurate.

 

[Vulcano's assistant]

137 mil? Holy crap.. and costs will be double that next gen.

How are third parties going to survive?

GTA games are basically AAAA games at this point. 99% of next gen games won't cost close to a mainline GTA.

 

[StuBurns]

the core team at Rockstar North of 100-150

How do you know that?

 

[FourMyle]

I just hope it is A LOT better than 4.

Yep. GTA4 was very disappointing to me. I really love the vibe that GTAV has and I've liked most of what they've revealed about the game thus far. I would just love it if they brought back SA's RPG mechanics and introduced even more categories for it.

 

[Fezzan]

Yea I don't know about 1st month, but it did it in 3months. This guy expecting GTAV to do 18M in about 6 months(sep 17th- March 31st). So either hes expecting the next COD to fall of a cliff compared to blops2(expecting it sell at least 4M less I guess), or he didn't do his research very well.

Yeah I;m pretty sure it's sold 20 mil now, but not in the first month alone.

It's 25 Million+ to be more accurate.

True.

 

[Manmademan]

137 million is ridiculously expensive.

 

[Fezzan]

137 million is ridiculously expensive.

They are gonna make there money back so quickly it isn't even funny.

 

[JohnnySasaki86]

That's guaranteed to happen.

I dunno. 4 was great IMO(Red Dead was better tho). I'm afraid GTAV might fall in the same trap that RE6 did. Lack of focus. RE6 ALSO had 3 playable characters. GTAIV had a great story and characters, cause it was very focused and personnel. Thats why Nico was such a great character.

 

[cuyahoga]

How do you know that?

Basic math and a knowledge of their headcount (around 250 I believe)—they had fifty to hundred or so folks working on RDR, LA Noire, and Max Payne 3, if memory serves correct. I'm sure all 250 are now on GTA now though.

 

[clem84]

If one game could outsell CoD, it's GTA.

 

[Derrick01]

I dunno. 4 was great IMO(Red Dead was better tho). I'm afraid GTAV might fall in the same trap that RE6 did. Lack of focus. RE6 ALSO had 3 playable characters. GTAIV had a great story and characters, cause it was very focused and personnel. Thats why Nico was such a great character.

Couldn't care less about the story in a GTA game. I meant by what they've shown of the gameplay improvements it's already guaranteed to be a better game. Anything they choose to show from here to release is just extra.