Nintard is a different word from retard or wetarded. I said so. So there. Give it up koam.
perhaps 3rd parties will be kinder to Nintendo this coming generation based on lower developments costs and therefore greater potential for profit?
The problem with this is Sony. If you see the release lists in Japan, there's usually at least a dozen PS2 releases weekly. Most of these come from smaller developers. Every one of these smaller developers pays royalty fees to Sony. Sony has spent way too much money on the PS3 and will be looking to make up for costs. They won't let royalty fees slip away. Also, Nintendo charges some of the most money when it comes to royalties. They could reduce them or eliminate them altogether since Nintendo can afford it but its unlikely they'll do that.
Sony will probably offer several low budget solutions for small third parties with PS3 and if not, there's always the PSP. Third party support has no incentive right now to go to Revolution. Hell, most of them probably won't even leave the PS2 until 2007 and for some, 2008.
Nintendo has no shot at being #1. What they could do is crush the Xbox 360 to where Microsoft is scared off from pursuing a third Xbox machine. The Xbox 360 momentum will be almost flatlined as the PS3 gets closer and closer. The Revolution is a dark horse candidate that, with the right launch, could have it pass the X360's userbase by the end of 2007. If it does bad, it will do worse than Game Cube. Thats why Nintendo can't fuck around when it comes to the first 12-18 months. Nintendo has to be at "A" game here, no more delays, no more FLUDD, no more sequels that didn't live up to the N64's predecessors, etc. You get my point.
Nintendo should realize they won't get the third party support that PS3 has and should try their hardest to make up the gaps on their own. If they take the DS approach of their usual big releases with several small releases, it could end up holding its own in those rough patches. They can be simple games that aren't full price and could introduce a new market of budget games. This is Nintendo's only plan for success in my opinion. Nintendo is going to have to prove it themselves that the Revolution is indeed a Revolution. Not just another console but with a remote control for a controller.
Still, Nintendo needs to announce some games. The sooner the better too. They could show it off at New Year's or something. E3 is just too late in my opinion.