Arstechnica: Dont read too much into the PS4s million day-one sales
- Thread starter Zombie James
- Start date
You're essentially asking, "If interpretations can be so varied such that the various puzzle pieces can be arranged in any way one pleases, why even have professional analysis/reporting/etc.?"
I don't see what's so confusing about the question or answer. The demand was obviously there, yes. But what most distinguishes this launch from past ones may very well be the capability/willingness to manufacture that many consoles in the first place. And that itself may speak to newfound production capabilities, or it may speak to new/polished metrics for demand. It might be that demand is more front-loaded than ever thanks to the rise of preorders, the advent of social media, and the general ease of reaching out to the hardcore audience.
Teletraan1
Banned
The only person willing to give you $1200 for the console back then was Jack Tretton, if you found one on the shelves that is.
They were sitting on shelves.
And that's where you're allegory falls apart. As many replies in this thread demonstrate, the news in this story isn't as obvious to some people.
foolishoptimist
Member
DumbArseTechnica said:
That won't be hard in AU, where launch is less than a week away, and both major games retailers(EB, and JB Hifi) are still accepting pre-orders for launch day XB1s.
PS4 launch pre-orders, and a second batch expected before xmas have all been gone for months. EB has pre-orders for early 2014 shipments on their website.
I wonder if the launch allocations are similar here to the stories we've been reading about 3:1 and 4:1. And strangely this is a place that's fairly Xbox friendly, and where the price difference is half what it is everywhere else. Just goes to show how badly MS have marketed their system.
shinra-bansho
Member
Based on the OP, the article seems relatively pointless. Yes, no one can see the future - that's about as worthwhile pointing out as the sky being blue.
1M day one sales tell us there is a lot of initial demand. It's not an entirely meaningless metric - if it had only had a 20% day one sell through for instance it would show much more tepid demand. The Wii U was not supply constrained, based on their launch shipment numbers which took months to sell through. If the XB1 ships less units and doesn't manage to see them through, or ships the same number of units and fails to match, then it will suggest higher demand for the PS4.
But those tweets - those tweets will mean I never bother to visit ArsTechnica again. Inane wagon-circling; rude and insulting.
1M day one sales tell us there is a lot of initial demand. It's not an entirely meaningless metric - if it had only had a 20% day one sell through for instance it would show much more tepid demand. The Wii U was not supply constrained, based on their launch shipment numbers which took months to sell through. If the XB1 ships less units and doesn't manage to see them through, or ships the same number of units and fails to match, then it will suggest higher demand for the PS4.
But those tweets - those tweets will mean I never bother to visit ArsTechnica again. Inane wagon-circling; rude and insulting.
Xbone is launching in 13 countries, for them to do worse than Sony they would have to sell through less than 100,000 Xbones per country..
Its an interesting tactical strategy employed by MS and will, for sure, play into the hands of the anti-PS4 shills and downplayers...
The salt fallout from GAF will be epic once this happens, no doubt
At least MS can claim victory for 7 days. If the XB1 doesn't do better day one it would be a big red flag.
Wasn't his best moment.
NoirVisage
Banned
its obvious to pretty much every poster here, without the need of false equivalences to past launches.. if you're actually keeping up with the thread and not cherry picking posters from bizzaro Gaf.
I'm willing to be disproved. Can you identify any other console that shipped 1 million in their first month? As in, manufactured and available to be sold?
Yeah... that's a really big assumption to make.
Like, gigantic.
woah
travisbickle
Member
Isn't making one million units available for launch day the success story for Sony? Can MS make that many?
foolishoptimist
Member
Xbone is launching in 13 countries, for them to do worse than Sony they would have to sell through less than 100,000 Xbones per country..
Its an interesting tactical strategy employed by MS and will, for sure, play into the hands of the anti-PS4 shills and downplayers...
The salt fallout from GAF will be epic once this happens, no doubt
It could be a different story if it fails to sell out though. I'm not convinced it will sell out in all of those countries.
But Sony are also launching across Europe in 2weeks, so they likely have 2m+ in total. With an overall smaller launch, MS doesn't need as many units to cover it's launch.
So it should have 1m+ available for launch.
Xenon
Member
No I think you confused them when you made the comparison. Besides the internet created his profession how could it kill it off?
This is a speculative article not a news piece. Do you call out a sports writer for lack of journalistic integrity when he says that your favorite team whos 5-0 might not go to the Bowl?
? Ok.
It's cute that you think the Twittersphere is real life.
CorporateClown
Member
No matter how valid his point was, what was the fucking point of stating it? Someone could go up to a woman who has recently given birth and inform her that she shouldn't look to deeply into having a wonderful birth of her baby because it could die of SIDS. And you know what? It could. But nobody would ever say that unless they're a vindictive asshole with an agenda.
Hyperbole? Yup. Don't care.
Hyperbole? Yup. Don't care.
Well this is an interesting question. One million systems+ at NA launch suggests PS4 production is either:
1) Going extremely smooth
2) Started super early
Or a combination of both. I expect there to be a ton of systems for the European launch on the 29th as well.
You really didnt say anything in this post in regards to the supply and demand of the console and why the production of the PS4 is more significant then the demand. That isn't even an academic difference of opinion, that is just thinking one is more impressive then the other. Either way, I'll address your points.
Bold - The thing that distinguishes it is, there are more gamers now then there were in the past, IE the demand is higher, therefore to meet the higher amount of people(supposed demand) you increase production. This isn't some grand question that doesn't have an answer nor is is distinguishly different, other then popularity.
Italicized - Front loaded demand? What are you insinuating here, that the drop off is going to be more steep then previous launches? What data points are being used to even assume this might be the case? why would the demand be front loaded or even assumed to be frontloaded even with social media? At best it would just increase over all demand, unless you are saying you think the PS4 is going to taper off after the grass roots crowed, but again we dont have any real data to suggest this would happen.
dat GBAYeah... that's a really big assumption to make.
Like, gigantic.
Gaming press/media/PR have had a cosy relationship for many a year, but this coming generation, everything's changed.
I no longer log onto gaming/tech sites to check the latest news, I come here. Increasingly, the biggest stories are broke on this very site, with the traditional press latching on days, if not weeks, later.
More than ever "the internet" is clued up - condescending and misleading bullshit is come down on like a ton of bricks, and quite rightly so. If even a moderately informed gamer can read an article in a single pass, and IMMEDIATELY spot glaring errors, how on earth are these going to press?
Too much in society is being dumbed down, there's now a backlash underway, not just with gaming journalism, but other areas such as sports reporting, "the internet" expects higher standards.
I no longer log onto gaming/tech sites to check the latest news, I come here. Increasingly, the biggest stories are broke on this very site, with the traditional press latching on days, if not weeks, later.
More than ever "the internet" is clued up - condescending and misleading bullshit is come down on like a ton of bricks, and quite rightly so. If even a moderately informed gamer can read an article in a single pass, and IMMEDIATELY spot glaring errors, how on earth are these going to press?
Too much in society is being dumbed down, there's now a backlash underway, not just with gaming journalism, but other areas such as sports reporting, "the internet" expects higher standards.
Touche'
You just compared the Playstation's sales numbers to stoking fears of sudden infant death syndrome, for the record.
I'm not saying that you're viewing a console war with the same passion and defensiveness that one views their own baby but- actually I am saying that.
Umm, you wana point where my post showed ANY offense? I thought the question was stupid and still think it is. Making statements about something you cant prove is pointless and beyond that infers something that might not have happened and probably cant happen(Pretty sure there was info out about Xbox one having short(er) supply then the PS4). Assuming the same amount of a demand for a the Xbox one is just guessing for posturing sake.
How would that show there were a million consumers ready to buy them?
Never mind the fact the PS4 did a million in one day, not one month.
Chuck Norris
Banned
The whole argument is illogical. PS3 had far less stock but didn't sell out, there was stock everywhere. High levels of supply =/= automatic sales. There needs to be matching demand, and even with a million consoles available PS4's demand seems to be exceeding supply
I wouldnt bother. The quote you quoted is the equivalent of saying, "prove or disprove that the 1 million unicorns just sold wouldn't have been bought if they were actually a Pegasus". Ya ok, I'll get right on that...
I agree there's nothing academic about this discussion, but I still disagree with the sentiment here. I'm not giving a value judgment to anything, or saying somehow the production side of things is inherently more impressive than the demand side. I'm saying it's possible the biggest distinction between this console launch and past console launches may be in the willingness or capacity to prepare such a large supply. And I said that in the context of clarifying the question you were referring to in your original post.
You're understating the complexity of the issue. For one, however large the entire market is, demand always tends to exceed supply - in other words, in the past consoles usually sold out and capped at however many hundreds of thousands sold. In this case, in the span of 24 hours and in a single market, Sony sold over a million consoles. That's far more than a story of "more gamers, more demand." That's most definitely a story about supply.
Secondly, we don't really have a precise grasp on how the market has changed. That's another part of the story: we don't know what these numbers say about the gaming industry. The Xbox apparently sold more than the Xbox 360 in its first month, but obviously that didn't indicate the industry had shrunk. Put in context, the only thing you can say for sure about these numbers is that it's totally wrong to simply conclude that "demand is lower/higher" based on them.
And I'm not insinuating anything. Seriously. I'm just speculating the possibility that more people than ever feel empowered to buy a console at launch. It's easy to imagine the hardcore base always exceeds the actual launch crowd, but with the rise of preorders and marketing strategies that directly reach out to that base, it's possible a larger percentage of them are going to start opting to pick up consoles at launch.
Well:
Came across as offended. Also, in your very most recent post:
"Stupid" is usually not an adjective one throws around without having taken some degree of personal offense. So far you've written three posts about how "pointless" you think the article is. Most people don't bother reading articles they find to be pointless or uninteresting, let alone repeatedly post about them. I know I don't.
If another console managed to get 1 million units onto shelves but failed to sell them, it would that launch demand for the PS4 outmatched that console, at the very least.
Also the chart you posted measured consoles sold/shipped in their first month, so I assume that was the measurement you wanted to use
Disagree completely, that is a story of how big the industry has grown that you need that much supply and you still sell out.
The 360 came at a completely different time in the console cycle, that isn't even comparable. Xbox 360 was the 1st to release and had a well known lack of supply(same with the PS3). Xbox had more time pushing out their console because the market was already in the midst of that generation(remember the xbox came out in 01, well after the Dreamcast and the PS2).
No it is not wrong to conclude that the game industry has grown leaps and bounds compared to the last system launch(excluding the Wii U). The industry HAS grown a lot and the idea that console sales wouldnt increase with it, is just silly.
You can speculate all you want, that is fine, but you cant create the narrative that "X is just as likely to sell the same amount". Well you can, but you better make sure(if you are press) that everyone knows this is a completely speculative piece with no hard evidence to support the case that the Xbox one would sell the same amount in the same amount of time. Specially when you know that production isnt going to ge the same with product X. It is an easy out in terms of predictions.
NoirVisage
Banned
playing coy as if you're missing the forest for the trees because why not right? keep playing the contrary white knight, at least some actual fellating is going on.
Yeah... that's a really big assumption to make.
Like, gigantic.
I think you could make the argument that the Wii could put up those numbers given how long it sold out for.
On the other hand the PS4 is sold out, so it's sort of a useless discussion on both sides.
You're assuming they have 1.3 m units to sell. I can't say if it's true but there is an assumption they started production after Sony so they may simply not have the units. Nintendo only shipped 400,000 on day one of it's Wii U. There may simple not be a million XB1 units available. as noted it may mean nothing for long term demand but given the context of all that's going on it may make things difficult. Starting behind, being more expensive, being less powerful, and fighting a latent negative consumer image is all problematic.
The bulk of their sales will be in the united states. of those 13 countries: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the UK, and the US
I predict US, Canada, and the UK will be the bulk of their sales. Germany and AUS may also sell relatively well but you're looking at sub 100,000 for the rest.
Its an interesting tactical strategy employed by MS and will, for sure, play into the hands of the anti-PS4 shills and downplayers...
The salt fallout from GAF will be epic once this happens, no doubt
We'll see soon enough. If they start quoting 'units shipped' figures you'll know they're having a hard time. If they start quoting 'units sold through' then they're doing well.
Wait, stupid now means you are offended? My bad, I did not know that, I just thought it meant that the question and the answer was stupid(as in not well thought out). As for me calling the article pointless, I said I didnt get the point not pointless, but even then not without subtext. If you cant insinuate why I still talked about it, even though I found the article itself devoid of a specific point as to why he made the article... well ok, but clearly I still read "pointless" things, while you dont, good to know.
Bold - umm... no. you can find a article pointless and still find interest in a discussion a pointless article can bring up.
Beyond that I never called it pointless, I said I dont get what his point was, as in, I dont get his motivation. I said the supply question/answer was pointless, but carry on trying to strawman the argument away.
Petrae
Member
Never fails to be disappointing when a pro sinks to a low-enough level to use derogatory terms like "consoletards".
That's not professional. That's not productive. That's not mature.
If you've got a problem with criticism of you or you're the target of criticism from your readership, you either defend your position civilly or you walk away and focus on other projects.
Indefensible behavior here, really.
That's not professional. That's not productive. That's not mature.
If you've got a problem with criticism of you or you're the target of criticism from your readership, you either defend your position civilly or you walk away and focus on other projects.
Indefensible behavior here, really.
This is all that needs to be said, really.
NoirVisage
Banned
more more, GIVE ME MORE, i'm saving your words for you! :O because you really haven't been paying attention..
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=90425318&postcount=802
Did you forget that PlayStation is a much bigger brand internationally?
What I find interesting is in the UK, Xbox's second biggest market, the PS4 currently ranks no.2 on the Amazon best sellers list, with Xbox One at no.21, it's been in that ball park for months on end, but probably more revealing given this is Xbox One's launch week.
It's a similar situation at ShopTo, with the PS4 ranking ahead of Xbox One in current best sellers.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_h__12
http://www.***********/
It's a similar situation at ShopTo, with the PS4 ranking ahead of Xbox One in current best sellers.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_h__12
http://www.***********/
Conciliator
Banned
Yeah, that's basically true, launch sales don't mean a whole lot. Anything could happen in the future. If you would have asked me a year after the PS3 came out if it had any chance of recovering I would have said no. A bad call indeed. Kudos to playstation though, hope they continue to do well.
Errr, uh, I mean, why is corporate apologist hot spot ArsTechnica oppressing the honest Sony-loving proletariat with their demonic propaganda.
Errr, uh, I mean, why is corporate apologist hot spot ArsTechnica oppressing the honest Sony-loving proletariat with their demonic propaganda.
That consoletards tweet is really damning. I had always felt that Ars Technica was one of *the* professional, non-enthusiast sites because of its focus on developer and industry news/resources. Shows that appearances aren't always what they seem.
Honestly, this entire launch has cast irredeemable doubt over the entire gaming journalism world. I mean, it was *always* pretty terrible, but now it's certain everything under the sun is amateur as fuck. I don't trust anything at all, and I wonder why anybody would.
Honestly, this entire launch has cast irredeemable doubt over the entire gaming journalism world. I mean, it was *always* pretty terrible, but now it's certain everything under the sun is amateur as fuck. I don't trust anything at all, and I wonder why anybody would.
Yeah... that's a really big assumption to make.
Like, gigantic.
I want to make a chart that estimates that PS4 figure out for an entire month using the day one sales...
I invoke the bolded.
Launch numbers are interesting and meaningful, but in and of themselves don't tell the full story. There are numerous factors surrounding them, and the size of the industry is only one. It's not wrong to conclude the game industry has grown overall, but it is wrong to act as if launch numbers are concrete indicators of that. It's also obviously wrong to completely attribute the huge difference in launch sales to differences in overall market size.
Personally, I've made no attempt to create such a narrative. I'm not sure the article in question did, either.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Xbone is launching in 13 countries, for them to do worse than Sony they would have to sell through less than 100,000 Xbones per country..
Its an interesting tactical strategy employed by MS and will, for sure, play into the hands of the anti-PS4 shills and downplayers...
The salt fallout from GAF will be epic once this happens, no doubt
It will be very interesting to see the reactions. MS, will probably ship over million easily, since, as you've already mentioned, 13 territories in 1 day. Will people be fooled into thinking that means MS is "winning" this console war?
It's funny, this makes it very obvious why Sony has avoided saying "this is the biggest console launch in history" when they opened in NA. They know MS would come back 7 days later and claim "ours is bigger!" Sony was very careful with their wording of their achievement: 1 million consoles, sold to consumers, 24 hours, single territory.
shinra-bansho
Member
The article implies the Xbox One, and really any console, is likely to sell "similar healthy numbers" given adequate supply. A statement/implication that doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.
The Wii U was not supply constrained as the article implies, for instance, as readily evidenced by Nintendo's shipment information. In general the Wii U comparison people bring up is poor, there's no way to determine when sales began to collapse to the point where it was selling like 11.5K/week in January.
We'll see in a few days how the XB1 fares, but I really can only see supply constraint due to limitations in manufacturing rather than overwhelming demand.
baxter2231
Member
Great response was thinking the same thing.
These sites and journalists are such a joke, they seem to exist solely for gaf amusement at this point. There isnt a crumb of integrity left.
Unknown One
Member
Doesn't really matter in two weeks because PS4 will launch in EU next week. That PR battle would be short lived.
The hilarious part is a lot of them hold us in contempt while selling out for penny's. Like what, Ars, we're suppose to believe that this article is just a coincidence after you published that laughable '1080/720 doesn't matter' article in complete reversal of the very reason detre of your site? No one is buying your act as anything but that. Call us 'Consoletards' to obstruficate your own lack of integrity, doesn't hurt us any, but it will hurt you.
Should really tweet this at them.
I invoke the bolded.
Launch numbers are interesting and meaningful, but in and of themselves don't tell the full story. There are numerous factors surrounding them, and the size of the industry is only one. It's not wrong to conclude the game industry has grown overall, but it is wrong to act as if launch numbers are concrete indicators of that. It's also obviously wrong to completely attribute the huge difference in launch sales to differences in overall market size.
Personally, I've made no attempt to create such a narrative. I'm not sure the article in question did, either.
Who is talking concrete? The industry has grown, it isn't hard to surmise that because of this fact that there is more disposable income available for the industry. You seem to be trying to create the idea that the increased size of the industry doesn't translate to an increased size of a user-base. Yes, we dont know how much, but I'm nto sure what that has to do with the article. And yes, the article created the narrative that the xbox would do the same thing because the demand is the same for any console.