Science, predicting the future better than any economist since 1981: http://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...esting-a-climate-prediction-from-1981/255658/
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
AusGAF 6 - Ricki Lee is awful. Everything else about Australia is AMAZING [Free hugs]
- Thread starter HolyCheck
- Start date
- Status
reptilescorpio
Member
>_< Asahi is $30 at GetWines, picked up the Herald Sun only to find out they changed their coupon to The Age. Now I have a useless paper and the slab will cost me $32.20 in the end!
DSE sale was good this time! Couldn't get there until 9:30am because of work so the only 2 DSiXL's went to those happy campers. About 10 people at 9am apparently.
Only spent $26. Almost grabbed a PS3 steering wheel for $10 but held my nerve.
DS - Gaz's Owl Game (not by his company) for $1
Wii - Gaz's Owl Game for $1
Wii - Broken Sword Directors Cut for $1
360 - Tiger Woods 09 for $2 (just wanted a new case)
360 - Kinectimals for $1
360 - Once Upon A Monster (with restraining belt) x2 for $5 each
PS3 - Singstar The Wiggles for $1
PS3 - Singstar Vol.2 for $1
PS3 - Singstar Abba for $1
PS3 - Ratchet & Lank All 4 One for $10
PS3 - Uncharted for $3.50 (double pack for $7!)
PS3 - Uncharted 2 for $3.50 (double pack for $7!)
Looking forward to playing OUAM with the little guy once my Kinect bracket arrives from LOGS. Also All 4 One should be family fun time.
DSE sale was good this time! Couldn't get there until 9:30am because of work so the only 2 DSiXL's went to those happy campers. About 10 people at 9am apparently.
Only spent $26. Almost grabbed a PS3 steering wheel for $10 but held my nerve.
DS - Gaz's Owl Game (not by his company) for $1
Wii - Gaz's Owl Game for $1
Wii - Broken Sword Directors Cut for $1
360 - Tiger Woods 09 for $2 (just wanted a new case)
360 - Kinectimals for $1
360 - Once Upon A Monster (with restraining belt) x2 for $5 each
PS3 - Singstar The Wiggles for $1
PS3 - Singstar Vol.2 for $1
PS3 - Singstar Abba for $1
PS3 - Ratchet & Lank All 4 One for $10
PS3 - Uncharted for $3.50 (double pack for $7!)
PS3 - Uncharted 2 for $3.50 (double pack for $7!)
Looking forward to playing OUAM with the little guy once my Kinect bracket arrives from LOGS. Also All 4 One should be family fun time.
shanshan310
Member
^ do it! do it! do it!
I'm not a big fan of this either. "fursday". "choosday" I think I may be guilty of, though I avoid saying it if I remember.
That's how I've been saying it.
woah, you aren't 21 yet? For some reason I thought most of Ausgaf was over 24ish (except Roosters93 obviously). Not feeling so young anymore.
Silly Jint. Go ask LA gaf to buy you something
What's your plan over there??
I'm not a big fan of this either. "fursday". "choosday" I think I may be guilty of, though I avoid saying it if I remember.
That's how I've been saying it.
woah, you aren't 21 yet? For some reason I thought most of Ausgaf was over 24ish (except Roosters93 obviously). Not feeling so young anymore.
Silly Jint. Go ask LA gaf to buy you something
What's your plan over there??That graph in itself is pretty damn impressive. Even moreso now with the "I told you so" factor.
what's in a name
Neo Member
There's a singstar wiggles, now I've seen everything. Does it include the hit song Monkey man?
Awesome link, tah
bought 4 TDK head sets for $5 each, diablo 2 expansion pack for $2 and brutal legend for ps3 and 360 $5 each
I assume you're kidding, but that cooling stuff tends to be based on a fairly short period, where climate change is the change of long term tends.
To put it another way:
reptilescorpio
Member
Even the short cycles are rising :/
Sorry son!
Sorry son!
The double packs are cheap, the single games are not. Also unlike Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft do Platinum/Classic re-releases so you can get the exclusives really cheap on both consoles eventually. Gets them into more peoples hands and means a much higher attach rate for series than if you just left the price at $80 until the end of time. I have seen a lot more Nintendo titles dropping to around $30 than in the past though, still takes ages at the same time.
The Monkey Dance? Yes indeed!
We need a Shaneus stare up in this place asap.
shanshan310
Member
Alls we gotta do is wait for an icy comet that we can mine ice from. Just like dad putting some ice in his drink... and then he gets mad...
bodyboarder
Member
All foreign beer must be changed at the border for XXXX.
Have you really?
God, its like the xmas special all over again....
Oh man. You are missing out. Go watch Youtube videos.
codswallop
Member
It's the real Mass Effect 3 ending DLC.
reptilescorpio
Member
Yes and I think I shall buy it.
Hundreds of people, 10+ teams working on it over 3+ years now. Will be the Kinect killer app!
FormallyMegadrive
Member
what's in a name
Neo Member
No there's a specific one with Kylie Minoghue called monkey man. Hot poppin pop corn is also a favourite though
Another thing that occurred to me is that a scientist could probably predict the economy better than an economist to boot.
Ruthless_Barbarian
Member
None of the above.
I think a predictable model of large scale human behaviour is more likely to come from science, yeah. Economics fails miserably at that.
What was it then?
But they use the same or similar fundamental models for predictions e.g. regressions, moving average, autoregressive etc.
If anything, science is probably easier to predict than the economy.
reptilescorpio
Member
Shepard dies. Or just that it is all very rushed and seems like it was written by someone different to the rest of the series. Certainly feels a little strange but I actually liked my ending. Just another slightly missed opportunity by some B+ grade writer
If a theory in science makes a prediction that turns out to be wrong, it's thrown out. It seems that when an economist gets a prediction wrong, they doggedly hold on to what they believe and go on making predictions. I'm talking strictly macroeconomics.
Hence the irony of not doing anything about climate change for economic reasons.
codswallop
Member
But at the end of the credits in my ending there was a scene where Shepard moves.
And did anyone actually expect him to live? I sure as hell didn't. The whole point was the self sacrifice, wasn't it?
I originally chose the Renegade ending (the red one where all synthetics are destroyed) as that was what I felt the psycho Shepard I'd been playing would have done (and that was the one in which Shepard lived for me), but watched the green synthesis one. It's virtually the same which ever you choose.
Paraphrasing here, but one of the best quotes regarding economics Ive read is that "economists have predicted 5 of the last 4 recessions".
And not at all the last/current one
Do they though? Models Ive come across tend to be built on physics and physical parameters. The context of these models (eg for star formation or glacier flow) tend to be based on known, measured qualities and observation - predictions dont necessarily come from a simple regression analysis.
I'd be more likely to trust a joint project between psychologists and mathematicians to accurately model economics than I would economists. Based purely on their track record of being shit.
All of the above.
reptilescorpio
Member
I know, I agree with that. I didn't expect to live and I don't think Shepard should live. I was just saying that it would have pissed off people who wanted the invincible hero of the series to survive. The shit you do in the series goes against the ending, they make Shepard out to be almost a god so it was a strange turn to have that kind of ending. Didn't suit the gameplay of the series. Mainly a major failure integrating the story and gameplay which always felt at odds with each other aside from some interesting stuff in ME2 (QTE choices during cutscenes).
shanshan310
Member
You think its worth going over to DSE now?
reptilescorpio
Member
Yes. Worth a look at the very least, especially if it is a quiet store. Pick up a random $1 game anyway!
Ruthless_Barbarian
Member
I believe in the
Indoctrination theory
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ythY_GkEBck Don't watch if you haven't finished the game.
Most of dse has bargain bins out so it should be easy to find what you want.
Shaneus now has monster and as evlcookie I get the feeling I should have picked one up for myself.
I'm tempted to check the local dse but Im so tired. Might just go straight home and chug water like a mad man.
Shaneus now has monster and as evlcookie I get the feeling I should have picked one up for myself.
I'm tempted to check the local dse but Im so tired. Might just go straight home and chug water like a mad man.
Paging Kübler-Ross.
I've always liked the theory but it also means that Bioware is pulling a move more scummy than just being bad and lazy writers.
Isn't that because scientists have the freedom of creating/testing their own models on whatever? Economists, e.g. in a bank, just apply models that have been around for ages and maybe make a few tweaks to it. I don't think there are many economists (that work in a bank or something) are trying to make their own model....actually I don't really know!
RandomVince said:
That's the difference I guess. You can make observations in science, but not really in the economy/finance where most of the important variables are implied - like you can't go out and say I'm gonna go take a sample of risk and measure it.
And yeah, star formation physics models are probably super complicated lol. I was referring to more simpler science related models, like rainfall or something.
There are plenty of economists in the education sector that are free to pursue whatever research they like, because that's their job.
People make economic observations all the time though. Unemployment figures, GDP, inflation, and so forth.
codswallop
Member
I think this is a terrible idea.
Those dozens of hours you played? For nothing! It was all a dream!
I know BioWare's writing is at times terrible but this is bad even for them.
I would have preferred one ending, with the Reapers winning, since that's been the cycle for countless times before. Maybe with some concession with others fleeing to unexplored space if you must. I can see how that would be unpopular though.
Couldn't be worse than the Buzz Aldrin 'a long time ago in a galaxy far far away' spiel.
I know BioWare's writing is at times terrible but this is bad even for them.
I would have preferred one ending, with the Reapers winning, since that's been the cycle for countless times before. Maybe with some concession with others fleeing to unexplored space if you must. I can see how that would be unpopular though.
Couldn't be worse than the Buzz Aldrin 'a long time ago in a galaxy far far away' spiel.
FormallyMegadrive
Member
4 headsets!? Can I buy 1?
Are they good? I need a new set.
For 5 bucks probably better than what I have now. Which is nothing.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked