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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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captainraincoat

captainraincoat

Banned
darkace said:
Pollbludger has been recording a distinct move towards the LNP prior to Brexit anyway. It's currently 50.9-49.1.
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Would not look too much into it....there are a fair amount of murdoch owned companies as well as larger businesses giving the lnp a pat on the back for thier tax cut gifts and their economic management today......im putting my money on a hung parliament

Do hope labour win though...i voted lnp last election and they have been absolutely horrible
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Shaneus said:
Election 2016: Labor accuses Government of 'pork-barrelling' by pumping millions into netball clubs
Sad to see a neighbouring electorate in that list :/ (also, Sarah Henderson has done literally nothing for the region over the last three years and I hate her)

Also, NBN denies HFC launch in uber-marginal seat breaches Caretaker Conventions, because buying votes seems so in vogue right now.
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I think Delimiters wrong about this. Carrying out a launch scheduled in January isn't a breach of convention. Announcing a new rollout to a marginal seat now would be though. Delaying the rollout could actually be a breach , not to mention deeply problematic for any business projections made about availability.

ETA -Also lol. People don't really care about Netball unfortunately, there's a reason the ABC pretty much has unchallenged broadcast rights , and State and National teams are chrome chronically underfunded. Its firmly in the female sports ghetto. If this is a pork barrelling attempt its a terrible one.
 
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bobnowhere

Member
There's been a bit of noise in the last few days about a swing to the Coalition. The Libs now think they can win seats like Griffith in Brisbane, Greenway, Paramatta and Werriwa in Sydney and Chisolm and another in Melbourne from Labor. Not sure how likely, might just be bravado to change the message in the last few days but could still be a bloodbath for Labor.

I suspect the betting is the same way lots of small bets for labor a few big bets for the Libs. An attempt to influence the news via the betting markets, commercial stations love talking about betting odds.

Queensland... well... that was always going to be trouble. A state Labor government in minority already beset by "chaos" must be leaking over especially when Malcolm keeps hammering stable government is the most important thing. Billy Gordon in the news AGAIN today.

Wd0u8Fz.gif


A lot of the "left wing" papers are still backing Turnbull saying with his own mandate he'll drive the Coalition to the centre and a more progressive social stance. Jeez, if you haven't worked out Malcolm will say and do anything for power by now then you're a fool. Oh well, 3 more years of refugee torture, 3 more years of the destruction of the social compact, 3 more years of competition and innovation for the basic necessities. Can't afford a place to live? Innovate! Can't afford to pay the power bill as privatisation has run costs out of control and your pension hasn't risen to compensate? Innovate!

Hopefully the Senate and NXT rightly fucks him up.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
There's been a bit of noise in the last few days about a swing to the Coalition. The Libs now think they can win seats like Griffith in Brisbane, Greenway, Paramatta and Werriwa in Sydney and Chisolm and another in Melbourne from Labor. Not sure how likely, might just be bravado to change the message in the last few days but could still be a bloodbath for Labor.

I suspect the betting is the same way lots of small bets for labor a few big bets for the Libs. An attempt to influence the news via the betting markets, commercial stations love talking about betting odds.

Queensland... well... that was always going to be trouble. A state Labor government in minority already beset by "chaos" must be leaking over especially when Malcolm keeps hammering stable government is the most important thing. Billy Gordon in the news AGAIN today.

Wd0u8Fz.gif


A lot of the "left wing" papers are still backing Turnbull saying with his own mandate he'll drive the Coalition to the centre and a more progressive social stance. Jeez, if you haven't worked out Malcolm will say and do anything for power by now then you're a fool. Oh well, 3 more years of refugee torture, 3 more years of the destruction of the social compact, 3 more years of competition and innovation for the basic necessities. Can't afford a place to live? Innovate! Can't afford to pay the power bill as privatisation has run costs out of control and your pension hasn't risen to compensate? Innovate!

Hopefully the Senate and NXT rightly fucks him up.
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If that 6 point Swing is accurate (and across the country) he could end up with a clear majority in the Senate.

Also I live in Queensland but in this case I understand and will take one for the team.
 
S

Shaneus

Member
Elaugaufein said:
ETA -Also lol. People don't really care about Netball unfortunately, there's a reason the ABC pretty much has unchallenged broadcast rights , and State and National teams are chrome chronically underfunded. Its firmly in the female sports ghetto. If this is a pork barrelling attempt its a terrible one.
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So why spend $40m on it in marginal seats right before an election? They have all this money they need to save!

bobnowhere said:
A lot of the "left wing" papers are still backing Turnbull saying with his own mandate he'll drive the Coalition to the centre and a more progressive social stance. Jeez, if you haven't worked out Malcolm will say and do anything for power by now then you're a fool. Oh well, 3 more years of refugee torture, 3 more years of the destruction of the social compact, 3 more years of competition and innovation for the basic necessities. Can't afford a place to live? Innovate! Can't afford to pay the power bill as privatisation has run costs out of control and your pension hasn't risen to compensate? Innovate!

Hopefully the Senate and NXT rightly fucks him up.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's bullshit. If that were the case, how come almost literally nothing got done since he's been the leader of the LNP?

Oh, and don't forget... if you can't afford a place to live, don't innovate, just ask your parents for money? trololol
 
M

munchie64

Member
bobnowhere said:
A lot of the "left wing" papers are still backing Turnbull saying with his own mandate he'll drive the Coalition to the centre and a more progressive social stance. Jeez, if you haven't worked out Malcolm will say and do anything for power by now then you're a fool. Oh well, 3 more years of refugee torture, 3 more years of the destruction of the social compact, 3 more years of competition and innovation for the basic necessities. Can't afford a place to live? Innovate! Can't afford to pay the power bill as privatisation has run costs out of control and your pension hasn't risen to compensate? Innovate!

Hopefully the Senate and NXT rightly fucks him up.
Click to expand...
Welp. Saturday's gonna be fun.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Elaugaufein said:
If that 6 point Swing is accurate (and across the country) he could end up with a clear majority in the Senate.

Also I live in Queensland but in this case I understand and will take one for the team.
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I don't in anyway think all of a sudden there has been a 6% swing, but Labor was always going to need a swag of wins in Queensland and all polling shows they were never close. 1-3 max.

Shaneus said:
So why spend $40m on it in marginal seats right before an election? They have all this money they need to save!
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I read or heard it somewhere but coalition members in marginal seat were each given a $20mil slush fund to spend during the election. Hence Netball stadiums for all! Not sure how many got the cash but Corangamite sure sounds like one.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
I don't in anyway think all of a sudden there has been a 6% swing, but Labor was always going to need a swag of wins in Queensland and all polling shows they were never close. 1-3 max.



I read or heard it somewhere but coalition members in marginal seat were each given a $20mil slush fund to spend during the election. Hence Netball stadiums for all! Not sure how many got the cash but Corangamite sure sounds like one.
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They got given $20m each and decided in unison to pork barrel in such an incompetent fashion? I'm pretty sure at this point I could come up with a better plan than that and I want them to lose.
 
R

Rubixcuba

Banned
Hey guys, I'm overseas in the Cook Islands of all places and Internet is mega sketchy (one gig = $50NZ!). But what's been happening re election? Polls seems 50-50 still? Is Labor a chance or is a 'no swing in the marginals' kinda thing. Thanks mates!
 
D

darkace

Banned
Rubixcuba said:
Hey guys, I'm overseas in the Cook Islands of all places and Internet is mega sketchy (one gig = $50NZ!). But what's been happening re election? Polls seems 50-50 still? Is Labor a chance or is a 'no swing in the marginals' kinda thing. Thanks mates!
Click to expand...

Almost guaranteed LNP return in the HOR, senate is a bit of a tossup. Very unlikely the LNP have a majority, but its actual composition is anyones guess with the new system.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Rubixcuba said:
Hey guys, I'm overseas in the Cook Islands of all places and Internet is mega sketchy (one gig = $50NZ!). But what's been happening re election? Polls seems 50-50 still? Is Labor a chance or is a 'no swing in the marginals' kinda thing. Thanks mates!
Click to expand...

Polls still dead overall (as of last night). Latest Queensland poll shows a major swing to Coalition (swing may be an outlier though since it's enormous). Labor probably dead in water though since they can't get enough QLD seats without a clear swing to them.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
darkace said:
Almost guaranteed LNP return in the HOR, senate is a bit of a tossup. Very unlikely the LNP have a majority, but its actual composition is anyones guess with the new system.
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Its probably safe to assume 3 or 4 Coalition / Labor each per state. And 1 Green. The territories are probably 1 each Labor / Lib. The rest is educated guessing on how well Senate voters follow HTV cards. I think it'll likely be less than lower house just because we seem to have an affection for particular micro parties and people will likely vary a bit to put down their pet party.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
30yearsofhurt said:
I'm predicting
77 LNP
67 LAB
5 IND
1 GRN
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I imagine Brandt is safe. Not sure how I feel about other potential seats. I think Batman is a possibility just because Feeney chose to be a garbage fire and Labor preferences probably go to Greens over Coalition (though far from same margin the other way). Melbourne Ports has a real chance of going to Libs out of spite which is hilarious , no real chance of Green victory though.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
darkace said:
Almost guaranteed LNP return in the HOR, senate is a bit of a tossup. Very unlikely the LNP have a majority, but its actual composition is anyones guess with the new system.
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I saw a list somewhere that showed the minor candidates that both majors were preferencing in the senate and predicted those would be the ones to get the 12th place. I think it was The Brick in QLD, in NSW can't remember LDP maybe?, Derryn in Vic, Jackie in Tas, SA ??? and the Shooters and Fishers in WA!
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
I saw a list somewhere that showed the minor candidates that both majors were preferencing in the senate and predicted those would be the ones to get the 12th place. I think it was The Brick in QLD, in NSW can't remember LDP maybe?, Derryn in Vic, Jackie in Tas, SA ??? and the Shooters and Fishers in WA!
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In some states 11 and 12 are up for grabs (Poll Bludger suggested Brick and Hanson). At least Queensland is only going to provide 1 candidate who will be a shame on our state again. Lazarus is at the least far preferable to any extra Lib. Pauline Hanson isn't.
 
S

Shaneus

Member
bobnowhere said:
I read or heard it somewhere but coalition members in marginal seat were each given a $20mil slush fund to spend during the election. Hence Netball stadiums for all! Not sure how many got the cash but Corangamite sure sounds like one.
Click to expand...
That sounds like it'd be highly likely. Not that it would actually get spent there, she has a reputation for doing absolutely nothing (except posing for photo ops). Maybe it's $20m in promises they can offer?

Elaugaufein said:
They got given $20m each and decided in unison to pork barrel in such an incompetent fashion? I'm pretty sure at this point I could come up with a better plan than that and I want them to lose.
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It's only $1m of that money getting spent on netball in Corangamite.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
Elaugaufein said:
In some states 11 and 12 are up for grabs (Poll Bludger suggested Brick and Hanson). At least Queensland is only going to provide 1 candidate who will be a shame on our state again. Lazarus is at the least far preferable to any extra Lib. Pauline Hanson isn't.
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Might have been the guy behind poll-bludger, or Antony Green but with vote exhaustion from those voting less that 1-6 above or 1-12 below he said that the last place would only need 3-5%. I imagine Hanson will find that. :(

Can't wait for the first time Hanson votes with Malcolm's Coalition party! That'll be a great picture.
 
B

bobnowhere

Member
79 LNP
64 LAB
3 GRN
2 NXT
2 IND

Greens to keep Melbourne and win Batman and 1 other Wills or Melbourne Ports
NXT to win 2 Mayo for certain and maybe Grey? Pyne is a cockroach and will outline us all and probably time itself.
Katter to finally go down and 1 of Windsor or Oakeshott to win. McGowan safe.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
bobnowhere said:
79 LN
64 LAB
3 GRN
2 NXT
2 IND

Greens to keep Melbourne and win Batman and 1 other Wills or Melbourne Ports
NXT to win 2 Mayo for certain and maybe Grey? Pyne is a cockroach and will outline us all and probably time itself.
Katter to finally go down and 1 of Windsor or Oakeshott to win. McGowan safe.
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It'd be really tricky for Greens to win Melbourne Ports. The only paths include ALP / LNP voters rebelling on Lower House HTV , that's a rate less than 50%. What the Greens would need is for a significant enough portion of Coalition voters to rebel strategically to screw Labor or a significant portion of ALP voters to rebel on the HTV and follow the standard party directions rather than the local HTV. Otherwise there's no way the combined count won't knock the Greens out. I doubt the first will happen since Turnbull's effectively said it's a bad idea very publicly , the latter might but it's pretty unlikely.

Shaneus said:
Could they be worse than the LNP hard-rights like Christensen? Or Bananaby?
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Probably not worse than Bernandi ? Pretty much the same except without the party occasionally telling him to shut up he's hurting his own cause. I'm not familiar enough with Joyce's history to say for sure, if he's a standard National he's still probably better than say One Nation or Rise Up Australia or the Australian Liberty Alliance or the Citizen's Electoral Commission.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
Elaugaufein said:
That depends on who you expect the independents to be. Unless you consider the Coalition shouting about instability for 3 years to be the worst outcome.
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Not really, because assuming an even split (eg Katter, McGowan, Windsor and/or Oakeshotte) of support for either potential gov't, they would still have to find a suitable speaker and deputy and one would assume an NXT or GRN member would rather make up numbers on the floor.

We've already had 6 years of LNP tantrums. What's another 3?
 
S

Shaneus

Member
Question: If the Greens win a seat from Labor, that hurts them in getting enough seats for a Shorten prime ministership, yes?
 
C

Candescence

Member
I'm quite frankly not gonna make solid predictions because it's way too close to call, but I'm personally thinking the LNP wins by a relatively narrow margin or we get a hung parliament, probably around a +10/+15 Labor gain at least. Anything less than that seems somewhat overpessemistic.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
Shaneus said:
Question: If the Greens win a seat from Labor, that hurts them in getting enough seats for a Shorten prime ministership, yes?
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No. Not necessarily. If for example the LNP and ALP had the same number of seats + support declared and a GRN seat was the decider, they can just guarantee supply as I can't imagine them supporting the LNP.

Basically any GRN candidate who unseats an ALP member will still probably align with the ALP anyway. It's only a problem if Green preferences favour and LNP candidate that an ALP member would have won otherwise.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Shaneus said:
Question: If the Greens win a seat from Labor, that hurts them in getting enough seats for a Shorten prime ministership, yes?
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In the case Labor + Green would be a clear majority, not really. The Greens will pretty much back Labor over the Coalition guaranteed , so it's a null as far as it goes.

In the case, other crossbench support is required it may or may not , there's something of a view that the larger party should be favoured by independents, so it depends if they count the ALP / Greens as a block and /or if they find the Greens objectionable. So it's probably not going to matter for say NXT / Windsor / Oakshot (Xenophon is a smooth operator and will go with whoever offers him the better deal , not really caring about the size of the main party in either potential group, Windsor and Oakshot have done this song and dance before and didn't care then and got considerable concessions for their electorate out of it, so they aren't likely to care either. For those groups likely to immediately object to the Greens, most of them wouldn't pick Labor any way. For other independents it might be a potential problem.

So the answer is potentially but it's not likely to be a huge deal in most outcomes.

Yagharek said:
No. Not necessarily. If for example the LNP and ALP had the same number of seats + support declared and a GRN seat was the decider, they can just guarantee supply as I can't imagine them supporting the LNP.

Basically any GRN candidate who unseats an ALP member will still probably align with the ALP anyway. It's only a problem if Green preferences favour and LNP candidate that an ALP member would have won otherwise.
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Even then it probably won't matter. Greens voters don't strictly follow HTV cards about 75% of the time (and usually end up with something similar slightly more often than the major's HTV cards, since as a minor party Greens voters are generally fairly ideologically aligned). It might in a super close seat though.

Preferences deals with the Greens are basically a suckers game as a result (it looks like they strongly channel preferences but if you're not something close to the organic flow you'll get a weaker flow than you'd expect.
 
B

Bernbaum

Member
Voted.

Thankful I live in a country where the volunteers handing out how to vote cards are engaged in cheerful conversation with each other, regardless of the party they represent.
 
D

darkace

Banned
legend166 said:
Nice to see blatant misogyny covers the entire political spectrum:

http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment...relentless-twitter-abuse-20160701-gpw3n2.html

I'll never stop being surprised by the amount of vitriol people are willing to spew online. I know I shouldn't be surprised, but I still am.
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There's a section of the left that has serious problems with racism and misogyny. Many of them voted Sanders in the US primaries, if my time on Reddit is any indication.

Given they identify as leftists, the only reason I can see that they would do this is because it gives them free shit. They're the future generations 'fuck you got mine'. I call them 'brogressives' or 'brocialists'. They're the lefts answer to the alt-right.

Being a dickhead transcends the political spectrum, unfortunately.
 
R

r1chard

Member
legend166 said:
Nice to see blatant misogyny covers the entire political spectrum:

http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment...relentless-twitter-abuse-20160701-gpw3n2.html

I'll never stop being surprised by the amount of vitriol people are willing to spew online. I know I shouldn't be surprised, but I still am.
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Can't view it 'cos I've hit my freeloader limit for this month, but I did catch that the above was reported by the *entertainment reporter*. Shame it's not, you know, serious news.




I should really pony up for the SMH.
 
D

DrSlek

Member
A nice cold, miserable day for an election here in South Australia.

Also; yesterday The Advertiser stopped making even the slightest effort at pretending to remain impartial. It even arrived in a "Vote Liberal" wrapper.

9ME4L8d.jpg
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