AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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bobnowhere said:
Whatever you say about Barnaby on a countrywide scale, he is clearly a very powerful advocate for his seat. Hard to displace. The reason Mirabella was unseated was she was viewed as a fly-in and a poor advocate.

Briggs officially gone!
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I can't think of anything he has done to benift the seat though which wasn't something already in motion?
 
Dear Eastern States,
Have coffee, because we're gonna keep you up again. Send GST.
Love, Hasluck

People seem to have caught on that my preferred polling place is dead in the afternoon. God help me if they ever run a sausage sizzle there. Anyway, I want to predict Lib will retain the seat, but maybe the hate for the state government will send it back to Labor. Still, I am leaning more towards Liberal, if only because Ken Wyatt was at the top of the list.
 
Candescence said:
Libs at 72 on the ABC, with Labor clawing back towards it with 64. The Guardian has 54-51 towards Labor, with the AEC's tally being fairly similar.

I think the ABC's tally might be a bit presumptive, honestly.
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The ABC is presuming much of WA, while the others aren't, right?

I think it's pretty reasonable.
 
I'm expecting Pauline on 7 to suddenly transform into a robot and start announcing their plan to destroy the planet. Secretly funded by Trump.
 
Shandy said:
Dear Eastern States,
Have coffee, because we're gonna keep you up again. Send GST.
Love, Hasluck

People seem to have caught on that my preferred polling place is dead in the afternoon. God help me if they ever run a sausage sizzle there. Anyway, I want to predict Lib will retain the seat, but maybe the hate for the state government will send it back to Labor. Still, I am leaning more towards Liberal, if only because Ken Wyatt was at the top of the list.
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I didn't even notice that. The polling booth I went to was pretty empty in the afternoon too.

First time I've ever voted in my life! The whole process was pretty smooth (though the Senate ballot paper was much larger than I had expected).
 
So it sounds quite probable LNP will get to 75, and ALP to 70, with 5 crossbenchers from which obviously LNP will be able to form a minority.
 
Tommy DJ said:
Pretty sure certain areas are still real salty that he backed Gillard despite the fact that their constituency benefited from the deal.
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Immensely salty. Like, insurmountably salty - it was easily the biggest challenge for Tony to overcome and I never thought he got a hold of it and relied on his grandfatherly aspects a little too much. That and his late decision to run again caught many groups out (GetUp!, despite much huffing and puffing were fucking ineffective up here, for example).

Even though BJ has been a no-show for most of the last three years, was quick to deflect many issues as being 'state issues' (despite being a massive advocate for Walcha during the recent state-based council mergers/amalgamations) and is a fundamental Roman Catholic something-or-other denomination (hence his ridiculous views on many social aspects and his wonderful quote about his daughters needing to marry men).

But you know, he's also a dinkydi aussie who wears akubras, oi oi oi, so there you go.

This has always been a conservative, National seat (TW of course being a former Nat), so his 'betrayal' to the ALP was like a personal sleight, or dagger into the hearts of many many people in this place who seemingly carry a grudge until the grave. And TW I think, was a bit weak at really getting stuck into BJ over mining, NBN, being socially regressive and the many general pre-election money promises (pork barreling) that were made.

Blurgh.
 
DeSo said:
God damn I envy you. I'm currently having weekly blood tests. Have had at least ten before now too.
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Yeah, I'm on weekly blood tests too (My doctor's almost feeling confident to go to fortnightly blood tests!) and monthly blood tests before I was diagnosed with cancer.
 
Striek said:
No result tonight from Green.

Really good night for the Greens btw, loving the swing towards independents too.
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Model predicting the coalition will reach 75. Implying Bob Katter will join up for 76. I heard him say this while writing my previous post and expected heaps of posts to appear above mine about that. :)
 
BowieZ said:
So it sounds quite probable LNP will get to 75, and ALP to 70, with 5 crossbenchers from which obviously LNP will be able to form a minority.
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Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with an independent speaker. McGowan? The NXT woman? Might improve the tenor of parliament.

Amanda Vanstone might punch someone soon.
 
Dead Man said:
Of course. Every election. No matter how narrow the victory... MANDATE!
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I've never understood this. Whoever wins has a mandate to do what they campaigned on. That's literally the point of a democratic election. Even if they won by one vote. Of course, they can't complain about the Senate blocking something, because if they didn't win a majority in the Senate they don't have a mandate.
 
legend166 said:
I've never understood this. Whoever wins has a mandate to do what they campaigned on. That's literally the point of a democratic election. Even if they won by one vote. Of course, they can't complain about the Senate blocking something, because if they didn't win a majority in the Senate they don't have a mandate.
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No, they don't. Clear case in this election. If you are returned with a smaller majority or none, your policies have no mandate. They have a mandate to form government. Their policies have no mandate. And yeah, most often you hear it from minority governments complaining that the Senate is blocking their mandate. It's tosh.
 
While my preference is for a Liberal/National majority, I would be perfectly happy with a Turnbull minority with support from Nick Xenophon's people.

I like his desire to move both parties back to the centre.
 
Well how about that.

If Shorten had maybe pulled his head out of his arse earlier and not relied on Abbott sucking for 2.5 years they might have won.
 
Dead Man said:
No, they don't. Clear case in this election. If you are returned with a smaller majority or none, your policies have no mandate. They have a mandate to form government. Their policies have no mandate. And yeah, most often you hear it from minority governments complaining that the Senate is blocking their mandate. It's tosh.
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Bullshit. An elected government has a mandate to implement its policies, whether the majority is reduced or not.
 
Dead Man said:
No, they don't. Clear case in this election. If you are returned with a smaller majority or none, your policies have no mandate. They have a mandate to form government. Their policies have no mandate. And yeah, most often you hear it from minority governments complaining that the Senate is blocking their mandate. It's tosh.
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If they win the election they have a mandate. I don't know what swings have to do with it? Elections aren't rolling contests. Every election starts from zero again. If the party that wins the most seats doesn't have a mandate to try and implement the policies they campaigned on, what's the point of an election in the first place?
 
Wd0u8Fz.gif
 
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