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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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D

Dimefan3

Member
How the heck did Peter Dutton get back in? Maybe keeping a low profile for most of the campaign might have had something to do with that...

Any word on Scott Ludlam? Has he retained his spot?
 
F

Fredescu

Member
legend166 said:
Well yeah, they have the mandate to pass the legislation that the parliament that was elected allows. That's literally the whole point of the election.
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Usually the term "mandate" comes up only to bully the senate into rubber stamping any legislation that comes its way.
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
legend166 said:
If they win the election they have a mandate. I don't know what swings have to do with it? Elections aren't rolling contests. Every election starts from zero again. If the party that wins the most seats doesn't have a mandate to try and implement the policies they campaigned on, what's the point of an election in the first place?
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Mandates are just bragging rights anyway. If you have the numbers to pass something in parliament, you can do it.

But if the argument to Senate cross benchers is 'but we won the election we have a mandate to pass this shit' but you had a 48% 2PP and didn't win the senate, they have a right to say 'naaaaaah bro'.
 
L

legend166

Member
bomma_man said:
Mandate is dumb, it doesn't exist. You either pass legislation or you don't. It's a fiction.
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That's sorta what I'm trying to say. Crying that the elected government doesn't have a mandate because of a large swing against them compared to the previous election is just as silly as the government crying mandate when the Senate blocks legislation.
 
D

Dead Man

Member
Fredescu said:
Usually the term "mandate" comes up only to bully the senate into rubber stamping any legislation that comes its way.
Click to expand...

D.Lo said:
Mandates are just bragging rights anyway. If you have the numbers to pass something in parliament, you can do it.

But if the argument to Senate cross benchers is 'but we won the election we have a mandate to pass this shit' but you had a 48% 2PP and didn't win the senate, they have a right to say 'naaaaaah bro'.
Click to expand...

Pretty much.
 
A

Aarglefarg

Member
Black Republican said:
damn, gonna do some research!
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I believe bomma is referring to Joh Bjelke-Petersen, to help you with that.

Bjelke-Petersen seized on the controversial visit of the Springboks, the South African rugby union team, in 1971 to consolidate his position as leader with a display of force.[15] The Springboks' matches in southern states had already been disrupted by anti-apartheid demonstrations and a match in Brisbane was scheduled for 24 July 1971, the date of two Queensland by-elections. On 14 July Bjelke-Petersen declared a month-long state of emergency covering the entire state, giving the government almost unlimited power to quell what the government said was expected to be "a climax of violent demonstrations".[15][16][17] Six hundred police were transported to Brisbane from elsewhere in the state.[18] In the week before the match, 40 trade unions staged a 24-hour strike, protesting against the proclamation. A crowd of demonstrators also mounted a peaceful protest outside the Springboks' Wickham Terrace motel and were chased on foot by police moments after being ordered to retreat, with many police attacking the crowd with batons, boots and fists.[16] It was one a series of violent attacks by police on demonstrators during the Springboks' visit to Queensland.[19] The football game was played to a crowd of 7000 behind a high barbed-wire fence without incident.[15] The state of emergency, which gave the government the appearance of being strong-willed and decisive,[15] helped steer the government to victory in both by-elections held on match day. A Police Special Branch member, Don Lane was one of those elected, becoming a political ally of the Premier.[20] Bjelke-Petersen praised police for their "restraint" during the demonstrations and rewarded the police union for its support with an extra week's leave for every officer in the state.[18] Bjelke-Petersen later described the tension over of the Springboks' tour as "great fun, a game of chess in the political arena". The crisis, he said, "put me on the map".[21]
Click to expand...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joh_Bjelke-Petersen
 
S

shanshan310

Member
D.Lo said:
Mandates are just bragging rights anyway. If you have the numbers to pass something in parliament, you can do it.

But if the argument to Senate cross benchers is 'but we won the election we have a mandate to pass this shit' but you had a 48% 2PP and didn't win the senate, they have a right to say 'naaaaaah bro'.
Click to expand...

p much. Not sure how anyone can say they have a mandate with less than 50% of the primary vote...
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
Did someone say mandate?

NjqK3Lf.jpg
 
C

Candescence

Member
Only the ABC really has it ahead for the government (and it's held for a while at 73 with the ALP at 67), The Guardian has Labor at a 6 seat lead at 58-52 and the AEC's tally is at 57-56 with a slight Coalition majority.

This is stupidly close.
 
30yearsofhurt

30yearsofhurt

Member
Collingwood beats Carlton.

Candescence said:
Only the ABC really has it ahead for the government (and it's held for a while at 73 with the ALP at 67), The Guardian has Labor at a 6 seat lead at 58-52 and the AEC's tally is at 57-56 with a slight Coalition majority.

This is stupidly close.
Click to expand...

AEC has Labor on 70 with 5 independents. Hung still in with a shot.
 
T

Tommy DJ

Member
Malcolm,

You assassinated a Liberal Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, who’d won an election by a huge margin.

You promised to do even better than him.

You then treated the Liberal base like dirt, smashing it with a huge super tax, refusing to speak to conservative journalists, repeatedly humiliating Abbott.

You referred to the colonial settlement of Australia as an “invasion” and even held an end-of-Ramadan meal with known Muslim bigots.

You called an early double dissolution election on the excuse of needing new laws to tackle rogue unions with a building and construction commission, but with the true aim of getting rid of crossbench oppositionists in the Senate.

You went to the election with basically only one policy to sell - a pathetic 10-year promise to cut company tax.

And now look. Almost everything turned to ruin.

You have lost so many seats that you could even be forced into minority government, if pre-polling and Western Australia go against you.

You have, if anything, lost ground in the Senate, which will block most of your plans.

You will be unable to get the numbers to get your building and construction commission through in any joint sitting of parliament.

You have asked for no mandate for real reform, and will have almost no power to undertake any.

Your popularity, already plummeting, will fall further.

There is no way you can seriously claim that this result is better than anything Abbott could have achieved.

Abbott picked up seven seats at the 2010 election and another 15 in the 2013 election. You have lost between 10 and 15 seats and dumped key Liberal values in doing so.

You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour.

Resign.
 
choodi

choodi

Banned
Tommy DJ said:
Malcolm,

You assassinated a Liberal Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, who’d won an election by a huge margin.

You promised to do even better than him.

You then treated the Liberal base like dirt, smashing it with a huge super tax, refusing to speak to conservative journalists, repeatedly humiliating Abbott.

You referred to the colonial settlement of Australia as an “invasion” and even held an end-of-Ramadan meal with known Muslim bigots.

You called an early double dissolution election on the excuse of needing new laws to tackle rogue unions with a building and construction commission, but with the true aim of getting rid of crossbench oppositionists in the Senate.

You went to the election with basically only one policy to sell - a pathetic 10-year promise to cut company tax.

And now look. Almost everything turned to ruin.

You have lost so many seats that you could even be forced into minority government, if pre-polling and Western Australia go against you.

You have, if anything, lost ground in the Senate, which will block most of your plans.

You will be unable to get the numbers to get your building and construction commission through in any joint sitting of parliament.

You have asked for no mandate for real reform, and will have almost no power to undertake any.

Your popularity, already plummeting, will fall further.

There is no way you can seriously claim that this result is better than anything Abbott could have achieved.

Abbott picked up seven seats at the 2010 election and another 15 in the 2013 election. You have lost between 10 and 15 seats and dumped key Liberal values in doing so.

You have been a disaster. You betrayed Tony Abbott and then led the party to humiliation, stripped of both values and honour.

Resign.
Click to expand...

Oh bugger off. Abbott was a disaster amd if he had not spent the first two months "doing a Rudd" on Turnbull, this election would not have been anywhere near as close as this.
 
D

darkace

Banned
I mean he kinda claim it was better than Abbott. The guy was a disaster and was looking at a 7point swing in a first term government.

Turnbull is the sole reason we aren't looking at a certain PM Shorten. He's conceded some ground on his right but he's gained in the centre.
 
B

Bernbaum

Member
Annabelle Crabb is eating and trying to hide it. One of the perks of hosting kitchen cabinet is having Tupperware containers full of leftovers.
 
T

Tommy DJ

Member
choodi said:
Oh bugger off. Abbott was a disaster amd if he had not spent the first two months "doing a Rudd" on Turnbull, this election would not have been anywhere near as close as this.
Click to expand...

Not according to Andrew Bolt.

Edit: To be clear, that post was Andrew Bolt melting down in realtime.
 
C

Candescence

Member
The ABC's Labor count is slowly inching towards catching up, it's at 68 now.

Tommy DJ said:
open letter
Click to expand...

To be fair to Malcom, he saved the Coalition from an electoral bloodbath that would've inevitably occurred were Tony still PM, and actually forced Shorten to get off his ass and actually do something rather than wait for the Coalition to hang themselves. His performance has been terrible, sure, but booting Tony was the right decision to make as far as the government was concerned.

Edit: Oh, it's an open letter from Bolt copied word for word, nevermind then, for the most part.
 
B

BowieZ

Banned
Candescence said:
Only the ABC really has it ahead for the government (and it's held for a while at 73 with the ALP at 67), The Guardian has Labor at a 6 seat lead at 58-52 and the AEC's tally is at 57-56 with a slight Coalition majority.

This is stupidly close.
Click to expand...
According to ABC's analyses, it looks quite possible ALL 4 remaining seats in doubt could go ALP (although Morrison would of course have you believe pre-polling will destroy any ALP lead) --

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=az

Though of course that will jinx it now.

EDIT: Yep I jinxed it, Cowan is pulling ahead by 0.1% now :p

Anyway, in this specific scenario, that's 73-72 to the Coalition. Obviously Bandt goes for Labor, so 73-73, with the 4 independents deciding what to do.

However, it sounds like Katter and Xenophon might be likely going to stump for the Coalition, so the other two independents will possibly follow suit.
 
Y

Yrael

Member
darkace said:
I mean he kinda claim it was better than Abbott. The guy was a disaster and was looking at a 7point swing in a first term government.

Turnbull is the sole reason we aren't looking at a certain PM Shorten. He's conceded some ground on his right but he's gained in the centre.
Click to expand...

This is why I've had mixed feelings about Abbott being booted. On the one hand...major schadenfreude over Abbott being kicked out so unceremoniously! But unfortunately, it meant that the Liberal party stood a better chance at the next election.
 
J

jellies_two

Member
I think the ABC is a predictive model including some factors like "Jewish bloc in this seat won't vote on Saturday so I built their vote Into the pre-poll" type stuff estimated, and everyone else is more of a 50% counted = now we can estimate type thing? In other words the abc one is more elaborate.
 
D

darkace

Banned
Yrael said:
This is why I've had mixed feelings about Abbott being booted. On the one hand...major schadenfreude over Abbott being kicked out so unceremoniously! But unfortunately, it meant that the Liberal party stood a better chance at the next election.
Click to expand...

Turnbull forced the ALP to actually develop policy. He was a clear force for good for our political system.
 
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