He's basing it on the idea that the speaker doesn't vote. Hence you need 77.
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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He's basing it on the idea that the speaker doesn't vote. Hence you need 77.
lol
The Greens are a very youthful upper-middle class urban vote. They have almost no pull outside of it.
lmao.
seems an okay result, I think they bounced back to 10% of the total vote but it's spread out over the entire country (apart from a few places) so not a lot of seats. the support is there though.
man shorten is on point with his fucking cadence. He could just be saying blah blah blah and he'd be really soothing
this also
Marky Mark
Member
Brutal.
bobnowhere
Member
They're still in with a shot in Batman, will probably lose 1 or 2 in the senate.
Honestly if this politics thing doesn't work out for Bill he definitely has a lucrative career narrating audiobooks.
As a non-Green I will say that it is pretty clear that they have a chance in Batman and have built a solid base in Higgins, Wills and Melbourne Ports.
They seriously dropped the ball in NSW achieving a similar result to last year and spending significantly more money.
Overall they haven't done particularly well and they might actually have less Senators than before. So yeah it is a bit underwhelming.
Marky Mark
Member
Bill bill bill bill bill bill
What I wouldn't have given for a Rupert chant...
What I wouldn't have given for a Rupert chant...
Aarglefarg
Member
There were some big swings towards the Greens and some close calls. It's not the same as more seats but it is promising for the future.
oh god if we trade greenies for hanson i'm gonna be so mad
Brutalitops
Banned
Beazley and Costello are both ultra civil and actively agreeing with each other a lot of the time, though I guess it becomes different when you aren't a sitting member.
And the one before that and the one before that, but it's a definite improvement on 2001.
D.Lo
Member
2007 was nuts.
It's kind of weird, I mean this is still a clear loss for Labor. 74 to 66 is not a win. Second lowest primary vote ever.
Better than expected is still not enough. An actual strong leader with a decent vision would have won this easily, it turns out. Turnbull and Morrison shit the bed.
EDIT: Same with the Greens. They'll probably even go backwards.
bobnowhere
Member
Looks like it will end up as:
77 LIB
68 ALP
1 GRN
1 KAT
1 NXT
2 IND
77 LIB
68 ALP
1 GRN
1 KAT
1 NXT
2 IND
ScoMo once again banging on about the ALP FPP vote being so low. Which sure, it's absolutely something the ALP need to look at.
But given his own mob are likely to only just be returned to government, there must be number cruncher out there who can tell me how the LNP FPP ranks as well?
Hoping to wake up to some interesting numbers anyway.
But given his own mob are likely to only just be returned to government, there must be number cruncher out there who can tell me how the LNP FPP ranks as well?
Hoping to wake up to some interesting numbers anyway.
Elaugaufein
Member
The Labor primary vote is completely irrelevant while a) the Greens exist in a meaningful way b) isn't enough to bump Labor off in a seat and c) continues to flow mainly to Labor.
shanshan310
Member
did you know it's labor's second lowest primary vote since something something?
....
did you know it's labor's second lowest primary vote since something something?
Elaugaufein
Member
Double dissolutions don't favor the Greens because their vote is usually around enough to elect 1 Senator per state at a normal but usually not enough to elect 2 at a double.
Eh, I might agree with you if we weren't a bicameral legislature.
Also the ABC hosts are starting to lose it. This is great.
Marky Mark
Member
These guys are losing their minds on the broadcast.
This should be what appears in Microsoft Word or Outlook from now on any time I hit ctrl-u.
Elaugaufein
Member
Even Greens in the Senate are largely irrelevant in that sense, of Labor would rather take the conservative position they can fall back on other Crossbench/LNP and they are reliable votes for non-conservative policy.
shanshan310
Member
exactly.
Although labor should take note if they're losing more primaries to the greens than usual. I couldn't in good conscience put them first with their policies on refugees.
i think i live in the greenest area of sydney and even here fucking albo just did a half court dunk on us. shattering the backboard and shit. and then gave us the big old welcome to the AEC stare down. let this be a lesson for everyone not to drink the koolaid too much. or rum either.
this was me earlier today...
now...
i will say though. whatever whatever the results. i've had a fucking great day. what a country.
this was me earlier today...
now...
i will say though. whatever whatever the results. i've had a fucking great day. what a country.
albo right now
casey right now
casey right now
30yearsofhurt
Member
AEC back down to 70 for LNP.
Internal party polling gets it right again.
Internal party polling gets it right again.
What do you mean (sorry)?
Greens tend to pull votes away from Labor, but usually not enough for their candidate to poll ahead of a competing Labor candidate. It's difficult for them to gain seats on the HoR.
Their support base gives them better results in the quota-based senate, but as mentioned, they're vulnerable to losing seats to minor parties in a double dissolution.
D.Lo
Member
Hierophant
Banned
hanson got in?
the hell
what happened to the asian vote in queensland
the hell
what happened to the asian vote in queensland
in QLD? lmao
It's worse.
She is electing a running mate in QLD and they may get one each in NSW, WA and Tasmania.
Hierophant
Banned
im from sydney and rather isolated so i don't know much about the other states
though my dad always told me stories of how much our extended family hated pauline hanson
soxinthebox
Member
Why is the live counter on The Guardian different to the one on ABC?
honestly the fact that nsw could have a one nation senator fucking scares me
different predictive modeling
different predictive modeling
The ABC has its own projections and models added in, while the AEC official count is far closer
Hierophant
Banned
at least having a hsp is now considered a valid form of protest
They're predictions on which way the seats will fall.
The AEC has an official vote tally with less seats put in the certain basket, but ABC tends to be good with their predictions.
Elaugaufein
Member
i think i live in the greenest area of sydney and even here fucking albo just did a half court dunk on us. shattering the backboard and shit. and then gave us the big old welcome to the AEC stare down. let this be a lesson for everyone not to drink the koolaid too much. or rum either.
this was me earlier today...
now...
i will say though. whatever whatever the results. i've had a fucking great day. what a country.
albo right now
casey right now
We aren't going to get those seats from major ALP players with good left wing records. If they retire (and especially if factional idiocy drops someone with a poor progressive record) there'll be a chance. That's the actual point of campaigning in those seats to have a chance at that time. Do need to be careful to not get to aggressive either as a result.
FTFY
I more so meant what do you mean by the internal polling? What did they get right?
EatChildren
Currently polling second in Australia's federal election (first in the Gold Coast), this feral may one day be your Bogan King.
One Nation support was inevitable. The /pol/ paranoia market is booming.
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