Support NeoGAF

[hidys]

Why do people think the ABCC not pass a joint sitting?

Won't NXT and One Nation vote for it?

 

[darkace]

It's the thing now with hip young e-warriors.
- immigration is bad (europe a nightmare wasteland)
- muslims extra bad
- multicultralism failed = FACT
- cucks
- homosexual transgenders forcing agenda
- feminist sjws censoring everything
- "the left"
- more cucks

Nigh is the age of disillusioned alt right.

I just think it's a bunch of sexually frustrated teens rebelling. It'd explain the rampant sexism and the massive crossover with PUA's. I had some really bad beliefs surrounding women until my first girlfriend.

Although I don't really get the racism. Even my brogressive point before doesn't really cover it fully.

 

[D.Lo]

I guess Turnbull can't afford to be seen as uncertain but this outright confidence in gaining the majority seems a bit odd.

Doesn't really matter, just for the cameras right now. He'll form government in some form, and News Limited are printing 'Turnbull Wins' right now.

Why do people think the ABCC not pass a joint sitting?

Won't NXT and One Nation vote for it?

Labor+Greens might have the senate? I don't know haven't done any numbers myself.

 

[Window]

It's completely safe because even if he can't he will still form minority government since he's the only one who can. At which point he will never mention stable majority government again

I don't understand, how come?

 

[Elaugaufein]

That's true, and a shame that numbering in order isn't counted as informal.

But still, forcing people to vote I think has a net positive. It forces far more people to get engaged in the political process than it does allow stupid people to have too much undue influence (I think...).

There's a chance that's the ordering poeple mean though so you can't ban it. It's a shame we can't randomly order the listing per paper. So that random ordering just cancels out.

 

[laoni]

68/70 to Labor on the AEC, 7 undecided.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I don't understand, how come?

Labor can't get enough Crossbench to form a government and elect a speaker.

 

[bomma_man]

Our theory: Malcolm had a victory speech and a concession speech but nothing in between. Hence this hot mess.

 

[bobnowhere]

Why do people think the ABCC not pass a joint sitting?

Won't NXT and One Nation vote for it?

Xenophon was interested but wanted some conditions about evidence and representation for those in front of ABCC. The libs noped it as well they are Libs.

ONP, who the hell knows? 4 or 5 racists that will run around screaming Halal and brown people. They'll probably fracture all over the place.

 

[Window]

Labor can't get enough Crossbench to form a government and elect a speaker.

I'm not familiar with whom the crossbenchers usually ally with. On the AEC website, I see Greens, Katter, Xeneophone and Independents. I'm guessing all of them (except the Greens) would side with LNP?

 

[Tommy DJ]

Alan Jones: The tone of it and the content of it is not what I would have recommended.

 

[Jintor]

I'm not familiar with whom the crossbenchers usually ally with. On the AEC website, I see Greens, Katter, Xeneophone and Independents. I'm guessing all of them (except the Greens) would side with LNP?

the indies depend on who the indies are. Xenophon is also a wild card

 

[D.Lo]

There's a chance that's the ordering poeple mean though so you can't ban it. It's a shame we can't randomly order the listing per paper. So that random ordering just cancels out.

That's a great idea actually, and easily doable for the house.

 

[laoni]

I'm not familiar with whom the crossbenchers usually ally with. On the AEC website, I see Greens, Katter, Xeneophone and Independents. I'm guessing all of them (except the Greens) would side with LNP?

Katter'll LNP, Wilkie probably won't play ball (One of the Independents), Xenophon might, and I'm not sure about the other independents

 

[Elaugaufein]

Xenophon was interested but wanted some conditions about evidence and representation for those in front of ABCC. The libs noped it as well they are Libs.

ONP, who the hell knows? 4 or 5 racists that will run around screaming Halal and brown people. They'll probably fracture all over the place.

Hmmm. One Nation will certainly support stuff like the asylum policy and probably things like cashless welfare cards , drug testing etc. Probably not going to go for welfare cuts and such (except the stuff that is specifically targeted at Indigenous and Immigrants). Otherwise likely rural conservative. Unlikely to care about the ABCC at all.

 

[BowieZ]

Katter'll LNP, Wilkie probably won't play ball (One of the Independents), Xenophon might, and I'm not sure about the other independents

The other Independent (appropriately the Indi electorate, I forget her name) is apparently conservative so I think it's almost guaranteed The Coalition will get 3 of the 4 others. Labor will get Greens and who knows about Wilkie.

 

[EatChildren]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

 

[Zany]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

98.5% of Australians are against Halal certification, even though 2.9% of the population is Muslim.

Welcome to the 2nd coming of Pauline!

 

[soxinthebox]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

My vote doesn't count for shit when most of WA is up the Coalition's arse

 

[Elaugaufein]

The other Independent (appropriately the Indi electorate, I forget her name) is apparently conservative so I think it's almost guaranteed The Coalition will get 3 of the 4 others. Labor will get Greens and who knows about Wilkie.

Wilkie's probably not going to back the LNP, for a former intelligence officer he fecking loathes nation security / border protection scaremongering. There's not much of that kind of Libertarian streak in the Coalition these days. Unless you want to try and get Arksy elected.

 

[hirokazu]

Apparently people didn't read the Green Card and only numbered 1-6 which is informal since FPV is mandatory in Lower House.

And so my faith in humanity drops yet further.

When people don't fill in all the boxes for the HoR ballot, do you still count the boxes they did fill it, or is that ballot discarded completely when declared informal?

I have the NSW state election handbook and for the state election you continue to count a ballot as long as the voter's intention is clear. That sounds like a better idea to me.

 

[bomma_man]

An NXT minority government might actually be good for Turnbull in a perverse way.

 

[laoni]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

My faith in my electorate has been restored, somewhat. But otherwise...nothing of value was gained

 

[luchadork]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

dont drink the koolaid.

 

[Jintor]

It's possible to have an election where both parties give victory speeches

 

[elfinke]

Great, have to put up with talking points and throw away lines until Tuesday, by the sounds of it.

It's possible to have an election where both parties give victory speeches

lol. Yep.

 

[Aarglefarg]

When people don't fill in all the boxes for the HoR ballot, do you still count the boxes they did fill it, or is that ballot discarded completely when declared informal?

I have the NSW state election handbook and for the state election you continue to count a ballot as long as the voter's intention is clear. That sounds like a better idea to me.

They are considered informal votes and are equal to if nothing was filled in at all.

 

[Elaugaufein]

When people don't fill in all the boxes for the HoR ballot, do you still count the boxes they did fill it, or is that ballot discarded completely when declared informal?

I have the NSW state election handbook and for the state election you continue to count a ballot as long as the voter's intention is clear. That sounds like a better idea to me.

NSW is OPV, not FPV. Let me try and find the saving provision for HoR federally.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

how the fuck is pauline hanson still around. fucking qld.

 

[laoni]

For now though...I'm dragging my butt to bed. I've already stayed up far too late.

Don't leave the thread hanging, guys~

 

[hidys]

how the fuck is pauline hanson still around. fucking qld.

Not only that she will hold more political power than she has ever held in her life.

 

[T-0800]

That's true, and a shame that numbering in order isn't counted as informal.

But still, forcing people to vote I think has a net positive. It forces far more people to get engaged in the political process than it does allow stupid people to have too much undue influence (I think...).

No one is forced to vote. Forced to get your name crossed of a list.

 

[bobnowhere]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

You can start your own racist party but you can never out-racist the Queen.


I doubt Pauline has even met half of her new party mates. By Christmas at least one will have gone independent.

 

[BowieZ]

So let's go with these ABC numbers for a bit.

72-66, with 7 in doubt.

Very unlikely Labor gets all 7: but if so it would be 72-73. Bandt and Wilkie will probably pledge interest in Labor, and Katter for Coalition. That leaves Xenophon and the other Independent, who would probably curry favor in joining Labor by showing their flexibility and honouring the incredible swing against LNP this election. Their alternative would be to risk instability by causing a deadlock and another election (or whatever other processes are involved).

Any less than 7, and the LNP will simply have the numbers on its side.

However ABC seems to be adding more and more seats back into their "In doubt" column so it seems unreliable to judge based on their predictions any more.

 

[mjontrix]

Xenophon was interested but wanted some conditions about evidence and representation for those in front of ABCC. The libs noped it as well they are Libs.

ONP, who the hell knows? 4 or 5 racists that will run around screaming Halal and brown people. They'll probably fracture all over the place.

I think they'll agree with NXT now. For Malcom he needs to show that the Government can get things done and the DD was worth doing.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So let's go with these ABC numbers for a bit.

72-66, with 7 in doubt.

Very unlikely Labor gets all 7: but if so it would be 72-73. Bandt and Wilkie will probably pledge interest in Labor, and Katter for Coalition. That leaves Xenophon and the other Independent, who would probably curry favor in joining Labor by showing their flexibility and honouring the incredible swing against LNP this election. Their alternative would be to risk instability by causing a deadlock and another election (or whatever other processes are involved).

Any less than 7, and the LNP will simply have the numbers on its side.

However ABC seems to be adding more and more seats back into their "In doubt" column so it seems unreliable to judge based on their predictions any more.

ABC removed the projections from seats in doubt going to full count since the assumed flows are wrong for proper counts, I think. So close seats go back up.

 

[Banderdash]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

For reasons beyond comprehension people in my electorate fucking love Christopher Pyne.

 

[hirokazu]

NSW is OPV, not FPV. Let me try and find the saving provision for HoR federally.

Yeah, I would've thought they'd still try to count a ballot until the voter's intentions become unclear. For example, what about if they filled in all the squares but accidentally skip a number? Does that still make that entire ballot informal and not counted under FPV?

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Probably looking like
73/74 LNP*
71 LAB
1 GRN
2/1 NXT*
1 KAP
2 IND

Wilkie and Bandt (GRN) Will side with Labour. Katter (KAP) will side with LNP.
NXT and McGowan can only be guessed at. McGowan is ex-liberal but I wouldn't paint her as conservative as Katter.

*Depending on seat of Grey.

What a fun night for democracy. Maybe now these arseholes will be forced to negotiate and compromise and cooperate.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Yeah, I would've thought they'd still try to count a ballot until the voter's intentions become unclear. For example, what about if they filled in all the squares but accidentally skip a number? Does that still make that entire ballot informal and not counted under FPV?

As I understand Federal House saving: If there are 3 or more candidates then you can leave 1 box blank and preferences will continue to flow until a numbering error in the event that there's a numbering mistake.

That means the 1-6 is fine if there's 7 candidates but informal otherwise.

House Saving provisions are surprisingly weak.

 

[BowieZ]

What a fun night for democracy. Maybe now these arseholes will be forced to negotiate and compromise and cooperate.

I agree. I know the major parties go on about how "disastrous" a hung Parliament would be, but with some relatively decent diplomats (eg Xenophon) holding the balance of power, some sense might be drilled into both sides.

Their divisiveness has to be chipped away at.

 

[hirokazu]

As I understand Federal House saving: If there are 3 or more candidates then you can leave 1 box blank and preferences will continue to flow until a numbering error in the event that there's a numbering mistake.

That means the 1-6 is fine if there's 7 candidates but informal otherwise.

House Saving provisions are surprisingly weak.

Thanks. That seems like a reasonable trade-off. Terrible that there's still so many informal votes, but better blank than a correctly filled in throwaway vote.

 

[i_am_ben]

The Senate Independents are going to skew conservative so maybe it's not going to be so bad for Turnbull.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The Senate Independents are going to skew conservative so maybe it's not going to be so bad for Turnbull.

Didn't last time. And I don't think it will this time. What Turnbull really wants for his own positions are Libertarian conservatives , this lots are mainly the Social Conservative type (and probably very populist with regard to welfare for Straight White People especially with regard to stuff like incentives to have children, etc ).

 

[Arksy]

so what have we all learned and gained from today

That if you're on a plane you miss out on all the fun.

 

[Aarglefarg]

I expected an hour ago from the ABC numbers that the Coalition could get to 77 but from the ABC numbers it is going against that...

ABC's website saying the Coalition and Labor are both on 67, then in the Seats in Doubt the Coalition is listed as ahead in 5 of them and Labor is shown as ahead in 6. Coalition 72 vs Labor 73. If these figures pan out then the Coalition would just reach the minimum with all 4 of the non-green Others.

 

[dity]

Imagine still being out there at 2am counting ballots and only getting that measly sum from the AEC for doing it.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I expected an hour ago from the ABC numbers that the Coalition could get to 77 but from the ABC numbers it is going against that...

ABC's website saying the Coalition and Labor are both on 67, then in the Seats in Doubt the Coalition is listed as ahead in 5 of them and Labor is shown as ahead in 6. Coalition 72 vs Labor 73. If these figures pan out then the Coalition would just reach the minimum with all 4 of the non-green Others.

I don't much like their chance of getting Wilkie. But the postal results will tend to favour Coalition. Morrison was right about that. Pre-poll is likely less so simply because so many people do it now.

 

[Candescence]

ABC count has evened out to 67-67. Christ, this was one hell of a night, and it didn't even come down to a proper verdict. The full tally on Tuesday is gonna be something to watch.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

I don't much like their chance of getting Wilkie. But the postal results will tend to favour Coalition. Morrison was right about that. Pre-poll is likely less so simply because so many people do it now.

McGowan is no shoe-in either.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/06/election-2016-marriage-equality-asylum-seekers-renewables-cathy-mcgowan-launches-indi-campaign

Now AEC is 67-71 to ALP.
HoR is covered in blue blood.