Elaugaufein
Member
Man, Morrison and Turnbull must be sweating bullets about that Pre-poll operation now. Bet he was hoping for things to go more in his direction. Abbott will be making phone calls.
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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened
- Thread starter Bernbaum
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Man, Morrison and Turnbull must be sweating bullets about that Pre-poll operation now. Bet he was hoping for things to go more in his direction. Abbott will be making phone calls.
the earlier count was as bad as 65-73 for the coalition... i was terrified!!!
Elaugaufein
Member
One interesting thing though that's clear from tonight: Morrison is clearly in Turnbull's camp, was always a bit of a mystery before where his real loyalty lay. Maybe being a factor in Abbott's knifing has completely alienated him from the other Social Conservatives.
ETA - Definitely at least 1 One Nation Senator too, Hanson made Quota in Queensland just from current count.
Also holy Scott Ludlam has seriously boosted the Green vote in WA he's got 1.4 Quota just off first preferences by current count (that's comparable to Victoria and Tasmania). Looks like the Greens will manage to fall 1 quota across the line off of preferences in all other states except SA (where they probably won't unless they get really lucky with ALP overflow) and nothing from the Territories.
ETA2 - Huh. That SA Provisional Quota for the Greens is much lower than normal. They've got 1 candidate apiece at each previous single , which should translate into at least a 0.9 normally. Is Senate counting in SA less complete or has NXT absorbed a chunk of the Green Vote (likely the Protest part) ?
ETA - Definitely at least 1 One Nation Senator too, Hanson made Quota in Queensland just from current count.
Also holy Scott Ludlam has seriously boosted the Green vote in WA he's got 1.4 Quota just off first preferences by current count (that's comparable to Victoria and Tasmania). Looks like the Greens will manage to fall 1 quota across the line off of preferences in all other states except SA (where they probably won't unless they get really lucky with ALP overflow) and nothing from the Territories.
ETA2 - Huh. That SA Provisional Quota for the Greens is much lower than normal. They've got 1 candidate apiece at each previous single , which should translate into at least a 0.9 normally. Is Senate counting in SA less complete or has NXT absorbed a chunk of the Green Vote (likely the Protest part) ?
Probably. If there was a movement against Turnbull and he wanted to secure his own position, the hardliners would kick up enough of a fuss to leave him out in the cold on his own.
I wonder what the conservative elements of the party are thinking right now, now that far-right candidates are nipping at their heels... Maybe the next election will be even more interesting.
Aarglefarg
Member
AEC has the Coalition on 66 against 72 now.
Most (probably 5) of their 7 "not yet determined" are likely to go to the Coalition, though, from what I understand.
But yeah, even still, based on those numbers, that'll put them at around 71, and Labor at around 75 if you include the Greens (regardless of whether the seat of Grey goes red or green (colours!!)).
So under this scenario, they'd just need one of the four crossbenchers.
Aarglefarg
Member
Yep. I was taking ages editing this in when I checked to see if there was a reply saying it.
Even if the Coalition gets all the 7 they are three short of a majority.
Sorry. Anywhere but Southeast Queensland is incredibly racist. We also have a lot of biblical bashing too in the country towns, almost laughably redneck.
Fun isn't quite the right word.That if you're on a plane you miss out on all the fun.
shanshan310
Member
Good morning! When did things start looking so optimistic?!
Starting to think this is quite literally the closest possible outcome in term of seat distribution.
I think in that scenario NXT would go for labor.
The real question then is the speaker.
Elaugaufein
Member
Probably won't stay that way. Antony Greens numbers included projections of the likely slant of postal / prepoll. So it's likely all downhill for Labor from here. The question is how many can they hold on to of the ones they have / lead in.
After the campaign he's run about ALP / Greens alliances, I don't think Turnbull would even approach Bandt.
Katter seems to have utterly avoided the Windsor / Oakeshott fallout of having sided with Gillard so he's a bit of a wild card.
NXT is the same. Lots of former Liberals who've ditched the party for one reason or another.
McGowan's in a tough spot there since it could potentially cost her seat. Hard to say with available data.
AdventureRacing
Member
These are my random possibly worthless thoughts from voting today. Firstly I hate being greeted by he lackies giving me voting advice cards on the way in to vote. I also dislike the fact that you're even allowed to handout those things in the first place.
Secondly the system is too complicated and is prone to cause lots of invalid votes. I know it shouldn't be that hard but time and again we see so many people stuffing it up at a certain point you have to look at the system.
The size of the paper you get to vote on is silly. You're given this mammoth sheet of paper and the booth you'rr crammed into is only half that size.
Then you're greeted with this huge list of random bullshit parties you have to sort through. I'm not sure what the solution is but I hate that there are so many crackpot parties there to vote for especially when their names can be so incredibly misleading. How many people actually have the time or patience to read through all their policies to weed out the crazy ones. I try to read most but I doubt pretty much anyone does.
In terms of the election itself I honestly don't care much either way. Locally Barnaby got back in which I can't say I'm excited for. Yet again plenty of racist backwater hicks getting voted back in.
The Libs and Labs both aren't worth voting for. The entire election is decided on awful slogans and propaganda. Certain issues pretty much decide the entire thing. Yet again we've went through another election where things like climate change aren't even mentioned. Maybe once the east coast of Australia is under water and the world is fucked it might become a talking point.
At this point I'm totally disillusioned with Audtralian politics. Thankfully Australia is a pretty prosperous and generally good place to live regardless. I know we have it better than most but it's hard to get too excited by Australian politics. Hopefully things keep swinging away from the major parties and we might actually see some change.
Secondly the system is too complicated and is prone to cause lots of invalid votes. I know it shouldn't be that hard but time and again we see so many people stuffing it up at a certain point you have to look at the system.
The size of the paper you get to vote on is silly. You're given this mammoth sheet of paper and the booth you'rr crammed into is only half that size.
Then you're greeted with this huge list of random bullshit parties you have to sort through. I'm not sure what the solution is but I hate that there are so many crackpot parties there to vote for especially when their names can be so incredibly misleading. How many people actually have the time or patience to read through all their policies to weed out the crazy ones. I try to read most but I doubt pretty much anyone does.
In terms of the election itself I honestly don't care much either way. Locally Barnaby got back in which I can't say I'm excited for. Yet again plenty of racist backwater hicks getting voted back in.
The Libs and Labs both aren't worth voting for. The entire election is decided on awful slogans and propaganda. Certain issues pretty much decide the entire thing. Yet again we've went through another election where things like climate change aren't even mentioned. Maybe once the east coast of Australia is under water and the world is fucked it might become a talking point.
At this point I'm totally disillusioned with Audtralian politics. Thankfully Australia is a pretty prosperous and generally good place to live regardless. I know we have it better than most but it's hard to get too excited by Australian politics. Hopefully things keep swinging away from the major parties and we might actually see some change.
30yearsofhurt
Member
ALP won't get the support of NXT unless by some miracle they get to 73.
Everyone but Bandt and Wilkie will give LNP chance to form minority govt.
I suspect we'll end on 73-71, or 74-70 to LNP.
Turnbull will get toppled by xmas.
ScoMo takes over as PM. Tries to be the big-bully boy to cross benches.
Govt unworkable. Talks up early election.
Labour gets a no-confidence motion knocked down 75 - 74.
Polling then shows without Turnbull that Libs would get obliterated.
Cross benches then get pork-barrelled up the wazoo.
Deficits increase markedly as LNP try to save themselves with ridiculous middle-class welfare budget.
We all come back in 2019 and try again.
One method would be requiring people who didn't get a quota last time to present a petition with maybe half a quota of signatures. That would cut out 80% of the senate ballot paper.
Everyone but Bandt and Wilkie will give LNP chance to form minority govt.
I suspect we'll end on 73-71, or 74-70 to LNP.
Turnbull will get toppled by xmas.
ScoMo takes over as PM. Tries to be the big-bully boy to cross benches.
Govt unworkable. Talks up early election.
Labour gets a no-confidence motion knocked down 75 - 74.
Polling then shows without Turnbull that Libs would get obliterated.
Cross benches then get pork-barrelled up the wazoo.
Deficits increase markedly as LNP try to save themselves with ridiculous middle-class welfare budget.
We all come back in 2019 and try again.
One method would be requiring people who didn't get a quota last time to present a petition with maybe half a quota of signatures. That would cut out 80% of the senate ballot paper.
Elaugaufein
Member
NXT won't give them a shot without them giving NXT something. Unless their MP defects straight away. So it depends on if the Coalition will give Xenophon a win on one of his pet issues.
Elaugaufein
Member
That's a bad idea. The entire point of preference voting is to elect the best compromise and that could be someone who has limited initial support.
Not to mention we already do something similar(party membership to maintain listing) with much smaller numbers and it's already incredibly difficult to meet that quota for the real micros since they insist on exclusive membership while many of Duerry's set share everything from members to office holders.
With a bit of luck the new Senate system should encourage some of the smaller ones to merge since GTV Senate Roulette is gone.
Smaller quota + roiled up about SSM is a freebie for those small Christian parties.
Labor clearly had the bigger focus on climate change of the two majors. Maybe they made less noise about it towards the pointy end of the campaign, but there is a difference in that regard.
As for the rest, perhaps the complicated voting sheets are useful for a sort of stupidity test. It really isn't that difficult.
Saying that, my booth had a pencil on a short string that would only reach half of the shelf - it was kinda comical trying to sort that.
Elaugaufein
Member
Guardian mentioned something I thought was happening last night but didn't quite believe, many QLD One Nation prefs were flowing to Labor not LNP. Anyone have any idea of what's going on there ? One Nation usually does best in conservative seats , their prefs rescueing Labor is bizarre. Is this payback for fact that the Coalition does its damnedest to erase One Nation from the map for reasons from genuine distaste to cyncial electoral advantage ?
Or is this QLD Labor voters being utter morons and protest voting One Nation then falling back to usual habits ?
Or is this QLD Labor voters being utter morons and protest voting One Nation then falling back to usual habits ?
30yearsofhurt
Member
It may be due to changes to senate voting rules. Or they may still have a grudge over Campbell fucking Newman.
Elaugaufein
Member
Amusingly Labor and / or Greens may end up having to pass it , though they'll want guarantees there's enough numbers for a a Yes on conscience votes in both houses when / if it affirms.
AdventureRacing
Member
Thank fuck. It's an embarrassment that they're still trying to push this. They know that there is overwhelming majority support for gay marriage, we don't need a vote to prove that. It's happening all over the world and we're going to be one of the last bastions of bigotry. Why is this piece of legislation different than any other? We don't hold a plebiscite for all the things they legislate on, why this one?
It's just an extremely expensive stalling method. The people want it to happen, it's inevitably going to happen soon. The government who actually brings it in will reciece a huge amount of goodwill. Unfortunately the Libs are still trying to satisfy the huge portion of far right members and are trying to avoid it.
Elaugaufein
Member
There was an ad on ABC for it after the election stuff weirdly enough.
You wouldn't think so though since Friday's ep actually had full credits suggesting the plan is probably to put a DVD collection together.
Aarglefarg
Member
I think it means marriage equality itself will be difficult to get through the senate.
jellies_two
Member
Why doesn't anyone care about vote fraud?
It is ridiculously easy to vote multiple times, just visit multiple polling booths, and I looked it up: nobody was fined or prosecuted for 8000 irregularities last election. No cameras, no id, just the dumb question: "have you already voted?". and of course since the ballot papers are anonymous no way of rescinding invalid votes. In a marginal seat any small organized effort could seriously influence a result.
It is ridiculously easy to vote multiple times, just visit multiple polling booths, and I looked it up: nobody was fined or prosecuted for 8000 irregularities last election. No cameras, no id, just the dumb question: "have you already voted?". and of course since the ballot papers are anonymous no way of rescinding invalid votes. In a marginal seat any small organized effort could seriously influence a result.
This is the worst. The issue is a go-ahead no brainer. It's being dragged out and unnecessarily politicised.
Elaugaufein
Member
Unlikely. Between Labor, Greens and NXT you don't need many LNPers to vote yes on conscience. It could actually be trickier in the house where bringing it to floor could potentially result in a conservative independent going rogue and threatening supply.
Because it's fantastically irrelevant for the following reasons:
The AEC follow many up and they are polling officer mistakes.
The distribution usually follows population density and 8000 irregularities is 0.05% of the vote.
If their were concentrated irregularities there would be an investigation.
Looking forward to the LNP steamroll to victory tonight
lol
In a way, he's right - Steamrollers are slow and painful.
shanshan310
Member
After brexit in particular I'm actually kind of concerned that the Australian public is more awful than everyone presumes. What if we get a result closer to 50/50? I'm becoming more and more convinced direct democracy on these kind of issues is a dumb idea. Why should everyone get to have a say and decide if 10% of the population should have equal rights?
they count the votes multiple times. when they cross your name off, if its not crossed, you get fined for not voting. if its crossed off multiple times, you get fined for voter fraud. but you're completely right. there should be a better way to do it than have everything just done on pencil and paper. though i'd imagine that way would open you up even more to fraud.
And just imagine how much worse it's going to get once the no campaign starts in earnest.
Elaugaufein
Member
Postals will reduce the swing. ABC is estimated 2.9% overall which is high but not unheard of.
Wouldn't count Lazarus our just yet. He's got enough quota to survive several rounds , so you might get a preference build up for him from peope voting against the Majors rather than for something. He could potentially do that from Labor overflow with a bit of luck too.
Aarglefarg
Member
Phew. That was my first interpretation but then my mind went to the worst. So it's difficult to get the plebiscite happening but more likely for the politicians to pass it on their own?
democracy is fine. its weak fucking politicians with no conviction that is the problem imo. for stuff like this, you need someone with cajones to stand up and be a fucking leader and make these decisions, explain the case, and guide people.
Futurematic
Member
But would be statistically obvious. Anyway both Canada and the U.K. have solved the issue simply. If you want the American "solution", well, don't lol
.Elaugaufein
Member
If Turnbull was better organized we could have saved a mint holding the plebiscite with the election.
shanshan310
Member
Not sure why he didn't do that honestly.
Elaugaufein
Member
The Pleb's problem is that the only people who want it are the LNP. Everyone else either wants to legislate SSM or legislate that homosexuality is icky and should be banned.
Feck , if the LNP is honest they are internally split the same way. No one really wants a plebiscite for anything but delaying tactics or political cover.
The DD wasn't planned far enough out. It was a desperate ploy to clean up the Senate and silence the discontent from the LNP right. It just happens it's failed spectacularly at both (see Abbott's speech last night which was basically a challenge and Bolt's ongoing meltdown scheduled to continue next time someone let's him near a mass communication medium).
honestly, the fact that turnbull didnt show strong leadership of his party is what cost him this election imo. everyone in the centre was waiting for him to take charge and direct the liberals more in 'his' way (kinder to people/environment). instead he became what us e-warriors like to call a total fucking cuck. just standing around while he watches the country get fucked.
Elaugaufein
Member
The thing is he can't. The Nats lean super conservative socially and the Libs didn't have an independent majority before. Now he's even worse off since he's lost far more factional support than the right did. His balls are in a vice.
yup. i honestly think he will go down as one of the biggest 'what-ifs' in australian politics. dude is in the wrong goddamn party.
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