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[Aarglefarg]

The Pleb's problem is that the only people who want it are the LNP. Everyone else either wants to legislate SSM or legislate that homosexuality is icky and should be banned.

Feck , if the LNP is honest they are internally split the same way. No one really wants a plebiscite for anything but delaying tactics or political cover.

Although I've thought about it like this, I hadn't really thought about it as simply/clearly as this with regards to the plebiscite maybe not happening but marriage equality passing. My hope was just that maybe Turnbull could grow a backbone and do it directly.

yup. i honestly think he will go down as one of the biggest 'what-ifs' in australian politics. dude is in the wrong goddamn party.

I think that's what he wants non-Coalition voters to think. I'm not convinced.

 

[luchadork]

I think that's what he wants non-Coalition voters to think. I'm not convinced.

exactly. noones buying it cause he's a cuck.

 

[bomma_man]

It would be great if Turnbull left politics to become a pundit driven purely by his hatred for the right faction.

 

[Elaugaufein]

exactly. noones buying it cause he's a cuck.

Eh. He probably could have done much better socially/ environmentally if the right had let him go rather than taking longer on drawn out revenge for Abbott. Economically ? Yeah, not much of a chance there. Better than Abbott yes (because he doesn't have the semi-religious belief the poor are poor because of their personal sins and flaw and that the rich are so because of their personal ability and moral character), as can be seen by the super offering, but he's still a very solid Liberal there (as can be seen by the backdoor big business tax cut).

 

[30yearsofhurt]

It would be great if Turnbull left politics to become a pundit driven purely by his hatred for the right faction.

There was a rumour that was circulating early last night that Abbott would be back as PM by December. It was shot down by someone but who knows now? I wouldn't put any money on him surviving the year.

 

[Elaugaufein]

There was a rumour that was circulating early last night that Abbott would be back as PM by December. It was shot down by someone but who knows now? I wouldn't put any money on him surviving the year.

Abbott's speech last night was him telling the right he's ready to go again. Shorten is probably praying they take him up on it.

 

[bomma_man]

Surely they can't be that stupid.

Surely.

 

[laoni]

Surely they can't be that stupid.

Surely.

Never underestimate the ability of our leaders to be a revolving door. There's a reason there's the "Change PM, change your fire alarm batteries" shit

 

[jellies_two]

they count the votes multiple times. when they cross your name off, if its not crossed, you get fined for not voting. if its crossed off multiple times, you get fined for voter fraud. but you're completely right. there should be a better way to do it than have everything just done on pencil and paper. though i'd imagine that way would open you up even more to fraud.

But nobody does get fined for their names getting crossed off in multiple polling stations. It's an empty threat, and of course it is empty because there isn't any proof you did it, and someone else can walk in and use your name.
The system is ripe for abuse. Even in afganistan they use indelible ink on the finger.

 

[bomma_man]

Well I think a challenge is inevitable, but Abbott? They're insane.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Well I think a challenge is inevitable, but Abbott? They're insane.

Dunno if they are. Abbott and Bolt certainly want him back, but I'm sure some of the other right would use Abbott's poor judgement and abysmal polls to argue they should roll Turnbull but take then instead.

 

[PARANO1A]

Why doesn't anyone care about vote fraud?

It is ridiculously easy to vote multiple times, just visit multiple polling booths, and I looked it up: nobody was fined or prosecuted for 8000 irregularities last election. No cameras, no id, just the dumb question: "have you already voted?". and of course since the ballot papers are anonymous no way of rescinding invalid votes. In a marginal seat any small organized effort could seriously influence a result.

My father and brother share the same name. They've been fined for voting twice and not voting at the same election before. Voting twice is definitely enforced.

 

[jim-jam bongs]

Reading the Bolt rant was beautiful, he's totally divorced from reality if he thinks that Turnbull was responsible for the mess he inherited from Abbott. It takes a special kind of pigheaded ideologue to spin it down that path if you look at the poll history from when Abbott became PM up until the current result, the LNP were underwater when they changed PM. Putting him up would have been a slaughter, Shorten performed exceptionally well during this campaign and if it were against Abbott he'd have pulled out all stops.

Probably the most exciting election night I can recall in my past couple of decades of voting, regardless of the outcome.

 

[Elaugaufein]

The Australian has the knives out it seems: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/fed...F&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_medium=Twitter

More interested in taking Turnbull to take over super than blasting ALP / Unions.

This is going to get real.

 

[danm999]

Yeah Bolt and Co were beating the silent majority supports Abbott drum after Canning because they won a safe Lib seat by a few points refusing to acknowledge how weak they've made the party's appeal.

 

[bomma_man]

Abetz blaming the Tassie disaster on super changes lol. It was like their least offensive policy.

 

[Yagharek]

I love knowing abetz is unhappy

 

[Shaneus]

Probably the most exciting election night I can recall in my past couple of decades of voting, regardless of the outcome.

Funniest is how people thought no party could possibly implode quite like Labor did with Rudd and Gillard, but the LNP is doing even worse. Rather than spouting "Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years", people will have the mouthful of "Abbott-Turnbull-Morrisson". All of whose names will be tarnished. At least Gillard has a somewhat positive legacy.

 

[laoni]

Abetz blaming the Tassie disaster on super changes lol. It was like their least offensive policy.

Hah, yeah, no... WHat would have done it would be health, IMO. Like I've said a few times in this thread, Launceston Hospital is struggling hard, Mersey's gone to shit, Hobart's having trouble, GPs all over the state had petition leaflets for Pathology bulk billing for months, a lot of clinics in my local area don't regularly bulk bill patients.

Ad campaigns in Bass definitely focused on Nikolic and his health voting record, I remember one ad saying he cut 5mil out of health spending and this was why our hospitals had gone to hell. Medicare privitisation was a massive thing here from what I saw too (Admittedly, considering i spend 90% of my time at hospital or home, health issues pop up a lot)

A lot of uni students were displeased about the deregulation of fees in Bass too, and UTAS has been sending us emails about how terrible the policy is since it was first introduced to our school emails. Plus, Labor pledged funding for the stupid campus move first, so the uni was happy to talk up the Labor party to us

 

[D.Lo]

Abetz blaming the Tassie disaster on super changes lol. It was like their least offensive policy.

Lol exactly how many people rich enough to lose out on the changes are there in Tasmania...

Seriously the Super changes were their best and fairest policy for 97% of Australia.

 

[Elaugaufein]

ETA - I can't believe we had an 8 week campaign where the final verdict was: "Verdict unclear, ask again later".

Funniest is how people thought no party could possibly implode quite like Labor did with Rudd and Gillard, but the LNP is doing even worse. Rather than spouting "Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years", people will have the mouthful of "Abbott-Turnbull-Morrisson". All of whose names will be tarnished. At least Gillard has a somewhat positive legacy.

I don't think Morrison can make it (at least he doesn't think so), he threw in solidly behind Turnbull last night. So I'm guessing the AbBolts hate him for back Turnbull. Unless his plan is to get up with his and Turnbull's support, if Turnbull is rolled, but there's no way he'd have the numbers after last night.

Lol exactly how many people rich enough to lose out on the changes are there in Tasmania...

Seriously the Super changes were their best and fairest policy for 97% of Australia.

2 or 3% I'd imagine. But not like they voted ALP as a result since Labor's policy on Super is probably harsher for that group.

 

[bobnowhere]

The true important question this morning is this:

Will Sammy J be re-opening the toy box this week?

So many beds for Richard Di Natale to choose from!

Same sex marriage plebiscite will be difficult to get through the senate now.

The Greens and Labor might just have to suck it up and vote for the plebiscite to happen or it might be 3 more years of inaction. Better to get the result than hold out on the process.

In a way, he's right - Steamrollers are slow and painful.

Abetz blaming the Tassie disaster on super changes lol. It was like their least offensive policy.

Barry Cassidy mentioned last night that he had been contacted by people in the known in the Liberal party that the super changes had been an effect on the number of volunteers at booths and donations. The 3 seats in Tasmania are far from from the richest seats in Australia so I'm not sure how many would be bumping up against the 1.6mil limit.

I suspect the over promising last time about chip mills and logging from Abbott had a bigger effect and this was the natural flip back.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So many beds for Richard Di Natale to choose from!



The Greens and Labor might just have to suck it up and vote for the plebiscite to happen or it might be 3 more years of inaction. Better to get the result than hold out on the process.

Barry Cassidy mentioned last night that he had been contacted by people in the known in the Liberal party that the super changes had been an effect on the number of volunteers at booths and donations. The 3 seats in Tasmania are far from from the richest seats in Australia so I'm not sure how many would be bumping up against the 1.6mil limit.

I suspect the over promising last time about chip mills and logging from Abbott had a bigger effect and this was the natural flip back.

Yeah, I could definitely see it hitting donations. Volunteers is interesting, polling booth volunteers don't usually seem to be that section of Liberal donors (usually Young Lib types). Knock on effect from ideological distaste ? Lib donors hire their "volunteers"?

 

[Tommy DJ]

Surely they can't be that stupid.

Surely.

After the recent British politics trainwreck? Stranger things have happened.

 

[BowieZ]

I'm a bit confused now why the press seems to be indicating it'll likely be a Coalition minority and Labor is out of the question. Labor looks ahead?

 

[hidys]

Saw a tweet this morning that showed this was a pretty stupendous swing against a first term government, maybe the largest? 3.4%, which surely falls out of LNP expectations.

Also a bit bummed to see Glen Lazarus ousted.

I think the largest was 1998 with 4.61%.

Howard got pretty lucky on the seat count.

EDIT: Actually its technically the 1931 election which produced a 15.9% swing away from the Scullin government, which is the only one term federal government in history.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I'm a bit confused now why the press seems to be indicating it'll likely be a Coalition minority and Labor is out of the question. Labor looks ahead?

Postals favor Coalition, so things are likely to go down hill for Labor from here , and the Indeps lean conservativish.

 

[jellies_two]

My father and brother share the same name. They've been fined for voting twice and not voting at the same election before. Voting twice is definitely enforced.

Your brother sounds very unlucky.. Are you sure the fine was for voting twice ? The penalty for that is
"voting more than once at the same election, penalty: 10 penalty units (i.e. $1 700) (section 339(1A), (1B) and (1C))."
But I don't know how it can be proved unless someone admits it.

Not a single person will be prosecuted for multiple voting at the 2013 federal election – even those who admitted to casting more than one ballot paper.

Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said he was "disturbed" that of the nearly 8000 cases of suspected voting fraud passed to the Australian Federal Police, not a single case has been forwarded to the Director of Public Prosecutions.

 

[jellies_two]

Postals favor Coalition, so things are likely to go down hill for Labor from here , and the Indeps lean conservativish.

I thought pre-poll is the vast majority of uncounted and they are not postal. Postal is the traditional lib strength, pre-poll is just people lodging early votes not via mail-in but because they can. It's the new trend apparently, to vote early.

 

[Dead Man]

Your brother sounds very unlucky.. Are you sure the fine was for voting twice ? The penalty for that is
"voting more than once at the same election, penalty: 10 penalty units (i.e. $1 700) (section 339(1A), (1B) and (1C))."
But I don't know how it can be proved unless someone admits it.

If your name is ticked off twice you get a fine. It does make it tricky fir people that share an address and name I imagine.

 

[Aarglefarg]

Wilkie and McGowan ruled out doing deals with either side. Bandt ruled out deals with the Coalition.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I thought pre-poll is the vast majority of uncounted and they are not postal. Postal is the traditional lib strength, pre-poll is just people lodging early votes not via mail-in but because they can. It's the new trend apparently, to vote early.

Pre-polls from within the electorate where largely counted already I think. Missing pre-polls now are out of electorate ones. I actually have no idea how that goes. Once it would have probably been Coalition , just because money to travel and more mobile jobs, but mining has resulted in a lot of out of electorate Union jobs now.

 

[Hierophant]

its like a nightmare

Spoiler

and im never going to wake up

 

[danm999]

Yeah but some members of One Nation have Asian wives. #notracist

 

[bobnowhere]

Wilkie and McGowan ruled out doing deals with either side. Bandt ruled out deals with the Coalition.

Don't blame Wilke for his attitude, he got burnt badly by the whole Slipper affair. All of a sudden Labor didn't need his vote and his gambling reforms went out the window.

LIb insiders are suggesting they'll end up with max 73-76 in the HoR. Amazing how before the election no deals and no minority government would occur. Now they're all we'll deal with the government the people elected and no new election. I'm shocked, who saw that coming! Malcolm's turn to sell his arse.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Don't blame Wilke for his attitude, he got burnt badly by the whole Slipper affair. All of a sudden Labor didn't need his vote and his gambling reforms went out the window.

LIb insiders are suggesting they'll end up with max 73-76 in the HoR max. Amazing how before the election no deals and no minority government would occur. Now they're all we'll deal with the government the people elected and no new election. I'm shocked, who saw that coming! Malcolm's turn to sell his arse.

I don't know how he's going to do that while selling his arse to the right of his own party.

 

[DJKhaled]

I don't know how he's going to do that while selling his arse to the right of his own party.

I've seen that, it's in the Double Penetration section of certain websites.

Either way, a good result for Labor, I hope they keep Shorten even if they don't make minority (though I'd prefer Plibersek)

 

[danm999]

I don't know how he's going to do that while selling his arse to the right of his own party.

Yes that's rather the problem. The right wing of the party rather has him by the balls which immediately weakens any negotiations he has with cross benchers. That's what makes me think it's Shorten's to lose if it comes down to a hung parliament.

 

[bobnowhere]

I don't know how he's going to do that while selling his arse to the right of his own party.

It's a firesale! Arses for everyone!

Senate should be fun. Coalition+NXT+Hinch+Lambie+LDP/CDP (NSW) won't get them across the line. Means either they deal with ONP and all the anti-immigration anti-muslim policies ONP will want in exchange or reach out to the Greens or Labor.

The likes of Bernardi will love it if the next Senate is all about Muslim bashing, Turnbull won't and probably won't last long in that case.

 

[danm999]

It's a firesale! Arses for everyone!

Senate should be fun. Coalition+NXT+Hinch+Lambie+LDP/CDP (NSW) won't get them across the line. Means either they deal with ONP and all the anti-immigration anti-muslim policies ONP will want in exchange or reach out to the Greens or Labor.

The likes of Bernardi will love it if the next Senate is all about Muslim bashing, Turnbull won't and probably won't last long in that case.

What a nightmare for Malcolm. This is the exact cat wrangling the DD was supposed to eliminate.

 

[darkace]

http://www.news.com.au/national/fed...s/news-story/a52ed6c717833bdc81c14839e5de9518

I kinda don't hate Dastyari as much after seeing this.

 

[bomma_man]

Yes that's rather the problem. The right wing of the party rather has him by the balls which immediately weakens any negotiations he has with cross benchers. That's what makes me think it's Shorten's to lose if it comes down to a hung parliament.

plus shorten's whole career has rested on his negotiation skills.

I imagine Turnbull would prefer to work with NXT and McGowen rather than Katter, as they're pretty much moderate liberals. he can tell the right he has to be moderate, otherwise they won't have a government!

 

[hidys]

http://www.news.com.au/national/fed...s/news-story/a52ed6c717833bdc81c14839e5de9518

I kinda don't hate Dastyari as much after seeing this.

He is definitely one of Labor's more charismatic figures.

 

[Pachael]

Surely they can't be that stupid.

Surely.

They will, and the 2019 election will be the landslide everybody expected, then they'll put the blame on Turnbull much like they painted the Gillard/Rudd period, then they'll fight again in the backgrounds whilst the ALP governs. Zzz

2 or 3% I'd imagine. But not like they voted ALP as a result since Labor's policy on Super is probably harsher for that group.

I'd say many went to the minor parties in the Senate

 

[teacupcopter]

This seems really dumb but where is there a good, as neutral as possible breakdown of the CFA / Firey/ Union / Daniel Andrews thing?

I'm in Victoria and this has been bubbling away but since it's just been in the Herald Sun mostly I've just ignored it. Anytime they talk about Labor vs. Unions I'm just assuming 100% lies.

My view was (remembering I didn't really care since I knew I would be voting 1 Green / Labor above Liberal) Daniel Andrews seems to be about as not bad as you can expect a labor leader to be in 2016, and was making generally not bad decisions, and then there was some issues with the MFB (Paid) firey union and the CFA (volunteer) firey union and he kinda had to pick one, but his minister picked the other and now they hate him.

1. Is this even close to reality
2. What are the issues he is dealing with
3. Would the libs be even close to better with it?
4. Is it actually a reason people should be changing votes or is it dumb herald sun shit again

 

[Yagharek]

Sounds like a state issue to me. Fire end emergency services are state responsibility.

 

[teacupcopter]

Sounds like a state issue to me. Fire end emergency services are state responsibility.

Definitely is but many articles are citing Victoria's less than the national swing towards Labor as a reason why it's not as clear.

I think perhaps it's that Victoria already were fairly high with Labor anyway but still... just don't see it.

 

[r1chard]

Senate should be fun. Coalition+NXT+Hinch+Lambie+LDP/CDP (NSW) won't get them across the line. Means either they deal with ONP and all the anti-immigration anti-muslim policies ONP will want in exchange or reach out to the Greens or Labor.

Oh shit. Our senate's gonna turn in to Donald Trump.

 

[Elaugaufein]

NXT is unlikely to be reliable in the Senate in any case, since he's 'Sensible Centre' dance its in his interest to shoot down some policies.

Given Hinch's reason for running (insufficiently tough on crime) you'd think he's a solid conservative vote but Labor peferencing him suggests otherwise. Anyone have any political background on him ?

 

[hidys]

NXT is unlikely to be reliable in the Senate in any case, since he's 'Sensible Centre' dance its in his interest to shoot down some policies.

Given Hinch's reason for running (insufficiently tough on crime) you'd think he's a solid conservative vote but Labor peferencing him suggests otherwise. Anyone have any political background on him ?

The only thing I know about Hinch is that he has never voted in his life.