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Battle for Mosul has begun. 1 million civilians trapped inside the city ruled by ISIS

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F

Frozenprince

Banned
kess said:
Google "Mosul Question". Turkey has had designs on the area since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire.
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Erdogan is salivating at the idea of a divided sectarian Iraqi region. He can piss and moan about the PKK and a Kurdish national state all he wants, this is perfect for his interests.
 
S

Sijil

Member
Erdogan won't venture deeper into Iraq than the Kurdish territories, I suspect he struck a deal with Barazani at the expense of the PKK. A direct confrontation between Turkey and ISOF/PMU would mean a a Turkish Iranian confrontation and neither those two countries are going to risk their strategic relationship over this

Anbar and Salahuddin, both Sunni provinces are now firmly under ISOF/PMU control, thus securing Iran's land access to Syria anyway, they just need to secure Deir Ez Zor on the Syrian side.
 
K

Kolx

Member
DXB-KNIGHT said:
I wish the Iraqi army all the luck
The inclusion of The Shia militia is uncalled for.
If your country has an army that defends each an every citizen why do you need a militia?

The only thing that I can think of is conducting crimes post the operation that the state won't be accountable for.
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The militia should have never been in the operation to begin with. They have already been accused of sectarian war crimes such as kidnapping the people of two cities, torturing them and then killing them just because they're Sunni, so allowing them in operation is just insane. I highly doubt the US can do anything if the shia militia said fuck it and decided to enter the city and break the promise the US gave, and if that happened the results would be just horrifying.

Chairman Yang said:
The Shias have treated the Sunnis far better than the Sunnis have treated the Shias. If there is widespread Shia vengeance, it'll die down with time.

If it doesn't, the only real solution will be dividing Iraq into Sunni, Shia, and Kurd territories.
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Shia have been fucking Sunni in Iraq for almost a decade now. It won't die because Shia will simply commit crimes to avenge wars in other countries between the two. Shia kidnapped, tortured and then killed hundreds of civilians in the last few months and I doubt this will stop anytime soon.
 
S

Sijil

Member
Kolx said:
The militia should have never been in the operation to begin with. They have already been accused of sectarian war crimes such as kidnapping the people of two cities, torturing them and then killing them just because they're Sunni, so allowing them in operation is just insane. I highly doubt the US can do anything if the shia militia said fuck it and decided to enter the city and break the promise the US gave, and if that happened the results would be just horrifying.
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The PMU saved Iraq while ISOF was crumbling away and the US was putting condition after condition for providing air strikes, if it weren't for them ISIS would've been inside Baghdad.

Like them or not, they saved Iraq, and they're not exclusively Shia, they have around 16000 Sunni tribal fighters and hundreds of Christians as well as Yazidis.

The PMU are now part of the Iraqi government and answerable to the PM and the Interior ministry, I can see why countries like KSA and Qatar loathe them, they destroyed their dreams of reviving their influence inside Iraq and see them as nothing more than an extension of Iran. The Saudi's ambassador to Iraq attack against the PMU was one of the reason why he was asked to leave.

Kolx said:
Shia have been fucking Sunni in Iraq for almost a decade now. It won't die because Shia will simply commit crimes to avenge wars in other countries between the two. Shia kidnapped, tortured and then killed hundreds of civilians in the last few months and I doubt this will stop anytime soon.
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Really? Did you miss the decade old Sunni insurgency that massacred tens of thousands of Shias in Iraq? Just a couple of months ago a suicide car bomb killed over 200 Shia in Baghdad. Shias did not start killing Sunnis on a whim, even after decades of Tyranny and oppression by Saddam's regime. But when Sunni bastions like Fallujah and Ramadi become a hotbed for Al Quaeda and factories for suicide bombers to be sent to Shia towns to commit mass genocide, yeah that's going to create long term animosity.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
AFP put together this info-graphic laying out the current situation around Mosul. This is the best high-level overview I've seen so wanted to share:

Cu_PETIXEAAQzpC.jpg
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Rogan said:
That's a good overview. Its going to take a couple of weeks I think?
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It really depends on ISIS. If they defend Mosul to the very end like what happened in Ramadi it could take months. But those are many of ISIS's best fighters, and they would be very useful in Syria. There are rumors that some are trying to escape back over the border. So we'll see.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
AFP put together this info-graphic laying out the current situation around Mosul. This is the best high-level overview I've seen so wanted to share:

Cu_PETIXEAAQzpC.jpg
Click to expand...
This is excellent. I was looking for something like this but found too much detailed info. This is a good overview. Added to OP.

People were saying battle for Ramadi will take months too. It fell pretty fast. The only delay will be because of IEDs, suicide bombers doing kamikaze on in the incoming convoys, and boobytrapped houses. Maybe a few snipers, but I dont know if this is going to be a literally street by street slog like Manbij. US airpower is decisive in this war.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
MassiveNights said:
Why are they not cutting off the IS retreat into Syria?
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It's not a priority, since not even their way back into Syria will be safe. Both Russia and the pro-rebel alliance will bomb the hell out of anyone going towards Aleppo.

It this is successful, it will be the biggest blow to ISIS yet.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
F

Frozenprince

Banned
To add to the reasons, the path from Mosul to Syria is also almost entirely open desert and air. There are no notable metro areas to entrench themselves, so open flight is actually beneficial to the coalition forces air power. I can't see them trying to hold Tal Afar or Sinjar in the retreat.
 
S

Sijil

Member
nubbe said:
I though Al Jazeera would have better coverage of this
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They're hated by both the Iraqis and the Kurds, they would be shot on sight if ISOF/PMU/PKK saw them. The only place they would be unharmed is in ISIS land. Al Jazeera is also the only channel that doesn't call ISIS by its Arabic derogatory term Daesh, they call it the Islamic state.
 
F

Frozenprince

Banned
Sijil said:
They're hated by both the Iraqis and the Kurds, they would be shot on sight if ISOF/PMU/PKK saw them. The only place they would be unharmed is in ISIS land. Al Jazeera is also the only channel that doesn't call ISIS by its Arabic derogatory term Daesh, they call it the Islamic state.
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As always, the best source of news on the campaigns and battles in the region is social media.

Mainstream outlets are always behind and biased.
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
In less than 24hrs, Peshmerga clear nine villages in East Mosul, secure additional stretch of Erbil-Mosul road and destroy four ISIL VBIEDs.
Click to expand...

There are only a handful of towns left until they arrive in Mosul.


Regarding ISIS fighters fleeing to Syria:
Iraq Air force F-16s hit convoy of ISIL, 30 cars destroyed on their way to Syria
Click to expand...
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Oh yeah, fuck ISIS. I hope they successfully clear the area and rescue everyone. God bless all the brave men fighting for it.
 
H

Hyperactivity

Banned
fabricated backlash said:
The Iraqi Army... yeah excuse me for not having faith in them acomplishing anything. A noble goal, but I don't think they'll be able to retake Mosul.
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sigh

I hate how western media has made the Iraqi army, who has been huge in the struggle against ISIS, seem like some incompetent squad that I guess lucked their way into regaining territory.

Frozenprince said:
That has always been the solution. Given the situation now with a battle hardened, well equipped and entrenched Kurdish people in Kurdistan along the northern Iraqi and Syrian border making a Kurdish national state all but an inevitability now. Iraq needs to either divide along tribal lines or learn to live together.

The former is infinitely more likely.
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Oh man, regardless of how stupid Sykes-Picot is, I can't wait to see what sorts of borders the modern world would try to draw up in their current understanding of the political situation in the Middle East. No, I'm sure we won't somehow fuck over another group and create another source of conflict, because nothing ever has gone wrong when the West marches into the Middle East with pre-conceived notions of how the borders "should" look and implements these notions before, has it?

If border redrawing actually occurs after all of this is done, I'm going to be depressed watching how the world fucks it up once again.
 
E

Eternal Gamer

Member
This video from the battle has appeared today, a kamikaze attack by ISIS on kurd troops or maybe iraqui army, is not that graphic since is recorded from the distance.

P.D. Don't read Youtube's comments, they are trash as you can imagine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_lq9xIivPM


Edit:I changed the video for one from the original source, go to minute 3.
 
nkarafo

nkarafo

Member
Holy shit at all these executions. It's like they are testing every method they can think of. I feel so sorry about the people who are anywhere near them.
 
Ozzy Onya A2Z

Ozzy Onya A2Z

Member
Crab said:
If you have a million people in a Syrian city, then given demographics 400,000 are younger than 14 or older than 65 and in no position to fight. The remaining 600,000 are at a gross capability disparity - if ISIS controls the flow of goods and people in and out of the city, then any potential rebels can't arm themselves, and they can't feed themselves without the consent of ISIS. Any potential soldiers also have dependents who can be threatened - do you risk joining a resistance group when you have a wife and kids?

If you want comparable examples in Western history, look at how few Nazi troops it required for Germany to control key continental European cities. I think the standard ratio is quoted at 1 soldier to every 80 civilians - so a city of 1,000,000 needed only 12,500 soldiers. We can see a pretty similar ratio here.
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Thanks, I had done the same rough calcs yesterday after my post as well. Makes sense.
 
M

michaelius

Banned
Hyperactivity said:
sigh

I hate how western media has made the Iraqi army, who has been huge in the struggle against ISIS, seem like some incompetent squad that I guess lucked their way into regaining territory.
Click to expand...

Iraqi army got that image since they were really good at escaping from ISIS in early months of war.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Sijil said:
Erdogan won't venture deeper into Iraq than the Kurdish territories, I suspect he struck a deal with Barazani at the expense of the PKK. A direct confrontation between Turkey and ISOF/PMU would mean a a Turkish Iranian confrontation and neither those two countries are going to risk their strategic relationship over this

Anbar and Salahuddin, both Sunni provinces are now firmly under ISOF/PMU control, thus securing Iran's land access to Syria anyway, they just need to secure Deir Ez Zor on the Syrian side.
Click to expand...

I've been saying for a while the US hoped a sunni state would emerge between Iraq and Syria, to avoid a tic-tac-toe from Iran to Syria and the Mediterranean. All the US has been doing for over ten years there has been a big failure and only helped Iran. They spent I don't know how many billions only to end up growing Iran's influence over Iraq and now Syria, and maybe even helped Russia down the line. SNAFU

Their last hope would be for Turkey to expand southward, but they screwed up their relations with Turkey anyway so...
 
L

Laekon

Member
Hyperactivity said:
sigh

I hate how western media has made the Iraqi army, who has been huge in the struggle against ISIS, seem like some incompetent squad that I guess lucked their way into regaining territory.
Click to expand...

Eternal Gamer said:
This video from the battle has appeared today, a kamikaze attack by ISIS on kurd troops or maybe iraqui army, is not that graphic since is recorded from the distance.

P.D. Don't read Youtube's comments, they are trash as you can imagine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_lq9xIivPM


Edit:I changed the video for one from the original source, go to minute 3.
Click to expand...

I think this youtube clip shows why the there is the image of incompetence. After the truck first appears there is a shot in it's direction that looks like they aiming at something miles away(and they might have been). Then a few other shots follow and not one hits. With at least 6 combat vehicles, if not more, a pickup truck is able to drive directly into them and explode a bomb.
 
T

TacticalHotdog

Member
Hyperactivity said:
sigh

I hate how western media has made the Iraqi army, who has been huge in the struggle against ISIS, seem like some incompetent squad that I guess lucked their way into regaining territory.
Click to expand...

Their image of incompetence comes from their performance in 2014. They had superior numbers, training, and equipment, but they got complacent and crumbled in the face of ISIS' aggression and adversity. Entire units abandoned their posts, weapons, and vehicles which was then captured by ISIS and used against them which led to a swelling tidal wave of momentum in ISIS' favor that has allowed them to push this far into both Iraq and Syria. A lot of the fault lies with the corruption of their officer corps and poor motivation/morale.

Things are better now they've gotten their shit together and momentum is back in their favor, but I don't think they could have done it without the assistance of the Kurds, foreign militaries, and Shia militias (who will probably hurt them in the long run as they antagonize the Sunni population in the liberated cities). Many bloody lessons have had to be relearned. ISOF is one of the exceptions and they've been spearheading many of the major Iraqi operations, but their numbers are depleting and a special unit like them cannot be easily replaced. VICE did a good documentary about them and the challenges the Iraqi Army will face even after they've cleared ISIS from the area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6axTxU30yo
 
S

Slippers

Member
BronzeWolf said:
I never thought their presence was so big. What is ISIS presence in Iraq?

Also, that Syria map looks like a clusterfuck... I am afraid that once ISIS is gone, the road to normalcy will be a little bit short of impossible
Click to expand...



en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Syrian,_Iraqi,_and_Lebanese_insurgencies.png

Green - Syrian opposition
Pink - Syrian government
Plum - Iraqi government
Orange - Lebanese Government
Blue - Hezbollah
Gray - The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, ISIS, IS, Daesh)
White - al-Nusra
Yellow in Syria - Syrian Kurdistan
Yellow in Iraq - Iraqi Kurdistan
Red - Turkish Government/Turkish Army

There are also some purple towns in the south-west of Syria but the page doesn't say who purple is.
 
F

Frozenprince

Banned
Jazzy Geoff said:
remember that a lot of those areas are just empty space, so whilst it looks like ISIS control a lot of territory, it's mostly desert.
Click to expand...

Pretty much everything past Tal Afar west of Mosul and anything south of their strongholds in Syria is no-mans land with sporadic villages and tribes but nothing of real value.
 
T

thefro

Member
mmRCR9G.jpg


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ad029c-9505-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

Washington Post said:
Iraqi Kurdish forces advancing toward the northern city of Mosul paused Tuesday on the second day of a long-awaited offensive after the Islamic State mounted tough resistance in villages east of the strategic city.

The front lines were largely quiet after fierce fighting as Kurdish forces pushed to retake a string of villages on the edge of their territory and turn them into new footholds closer to Mosul. The city is the last main stronghold for the Islamic State in Iraq and represents a critical showdown for both sides.

However, the Iraqi military made some gains. The army's 9th Division broke into the district of Hamdaniya, also on the eastern front, closing in on the Christian town of Qaraqosh, commanders said.


The intense fight for hamlets some 30 miles from the city suggested that the militants could fight for every inch outside the city, but also that they are unlikely to be able to hold on in the face of a coordinated advance and close air support from a U.S.-led coalition.

Residents who have recently fled the area and Iraqi officials with contacts inside Mosul say the Islamic State has been digging in for a fight, erecting concrete barricades and filling trenches full of oil that can be set on fire to slow advancing forces. The Islamic State claimed to have carried out 12 suicide attacks on the first day of the offensive, according to its affiliated news agency, Amaq. Jabbar Yawar, a spokesman for Kurdish peshmerga forces, said eight Kurdish soldiers were killed Monday and 16 injured.

The struggle for Mosul — which involves U.S. air power and an array of Iraqi ground forces — is the largest and most complex so far in the battle against Islamic State militants. It has brought an unprecedented level of military cooperation between Baghdad and the Kurdistan regional government in northern city of Irbil, which have long feuded over oil and land. But some small cracks in that alliance appeared Tuesday, as Kurdish and Iraqi commanders traded blame for delays in some operations in the east.
Click to expand...
 
S

Syder

Member
Mosul battle: Some 5,000 civilians fled ahead of fighting
Thousands of people have fled the Mosul area and more are expected as Iraqi troops move on the city to liberate it from the so-called Islamic State.

Some 5,000 people have crossed the border into Syria in the last 10 days, about 900 of them since the military began in areas around Mosul on Monday. They have arrived at the al-Hol refugee camp where conditions, aid workers say, are already filthy and overcrowded.
Up to 1.5 million are thought to be in Mosul, with up to 5,000 IS fighters. The UN is preparing for what it fears could be the biggest man-made humanitarian crisis in recent times.
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