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[Bernoulli]

Bethesda knew it would have a hit on its hands with Starfield when the game finally launched, and its revenue projections for the game showed that. According to documents leaked as part of the major Xbox leak last week, Bethesda expected to make almost $1 Billion in revenue on Starfield alone.

That estimate comes over a four-year span. In year one, the company projected $600 Million followed by $215 Million in year two. Years three and four see the numbers fall a bit as the game’s lifecycle moves on with projections of $50 million and $35 million, respectively.


Originally, the numbers started in FY21, which is when Starfield was first scheduled. However, we can simply push back the years but keep the numbers to get an idea of what the company was expecting.

As of publishing, Starfield has seen over 10 million players explore space. Based on that, it seems likely that Bethesda will hit those revenue expectations. Even if only half of the 10 million players purchased the base $70 version of the game, that’s still $350,000,000. With post-launch support and accounting for the deluxe editions of the game, it could be safe to assume the company will have no problem hitting the projects.

Bethesda Expected To Make Almost $1 Billion On Starfield - Insider Gaming

According to financial projections released as part of the Xbox data leaks, Bethesda expected to make almost $1 billion on Starfield.

insider-gaming.com

 

[Zones]

 

[Gaiff]

Yeah, I believe that. Bethesda games tend to have long legs in no small part due to the modding scene.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

How TF people are still incapable to understand a developer makes a fraction of the full retail price? I don’t even get into revenue vs. net profit.

 

[CrimsonSquall]

I don’t actually understand this with it being on gamepass tbh

 

[semiconscious]

i'm guessing this's a pre-game pass estimate? gotta be...

 

[Cyberpunkd]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

Who needs math when you have opinions?

 

[EviLore]

Starfield has seen over 10 million players explore space. Based on that, it seems likely that Bethesda will hit those revenue expectations. Even if only half of the 10 million players purchased the base $70 version of the game, that’s still $350,000,000. With post-launch support and accounting for the deluxe editions of the game, it could be safe to assume the company will have no problem hitting the projects.

 

[dotnotbot]

Looking at steam numbers where most sales are - no way in hell

 

[Magic Carpet]

Are there microtransactions that I'm unaware of? I paid for the early access and bought the Starfield controller.
Is that enough to get to 1 Billion with a 'B'?

 

[knguyen]

If they made a game that represents everything they said in those honest and good guy interviews, then may be they'll make 1B out of it.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Looking at steam numbers where most sales are - no way in hell

I suppose you could come up with that number if you figured all Gamepass players paying $180 a year!

 

[winjer]

 

[Chuck Berry]

"Expected"

"Safe to assume"

Keep em coming

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Well this projection was pre-Bethesda acquisition, so there's really no way to know how much it'll make because of Game Pass. Pre-acquisition, it's actually a very safe estimate considering sales of previous Bethesda games.

 

[Mr Moose]

Based on that, it seems likely that Bethesda will hit those revenue expectations. Even if only half of the 10 million players purchased the base $70 version of the game, that’s still $350,000,000.

Erm, yeah sure, OK.

 

[R6Rider]

 

[Saber]

Who cares about 1 billion when Morbius film can make 300 trillions?

 

[H-I-M]

Even if only half of the 10 million players purchased the base $70 version of the game, that’s still $350,000,000.

The game is dropping on Steam.
The game has left the top10 in the UK.
The game has left the top10 in France.

Good luck SELLING 5 million copies.

 

[StueyDuck]

This is not really much of anything... fudging projections is pretty common, especially in gaming.

Just look how great square Enix is at it

 

[Negotiator101]

Completely conceivable given how many had early access, the fact Bethesda games sell over a long time and of course the DLC next year. Anyone saying otherwise is letting their emotions get the better of them. Yes for some reason people have become very emotional about Starfield

 

[Lokaum D+]

i did my part, downloaded on gamepass

Also...

 

[Salty Popsicle]

It seems these internal estimates were made a year before the Microsoft acquisition took place, which means a completely different set of parameters were being used to arrive at these numbers (PS5 was still a release platform and definitely not a GamePass game).

 

[Thief1987]

I'm expecting to fly to the Moon next year. We all have some reasonable expectations in our life.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

 

[phant0m]

How TF people are still incapable to understand a developer makes a fraction of the full retail price? I don’t even get into revenue vs. net profit.

In this case, it’s a big leg up that Bethesda is owned by the only platform owner their game is on.

Yes they’ll still have to give brick & mortar retailers and Steam a cut but I doubt the publisher (MS) and digital storefront (MS) on Xbox are taking their usual “cut”.

Also it’s revenue, not profit as you mentioned. Even f the ASP is only $60 you only need to sell 16.6M copies to get to a billion. FWIW, Skyrim has sold over 30M copies. Four years is probably a bit wishful though, especially with somewhat tepid post-launch reactions.

The biggest question is how they’re compensated through GamePass.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Completely conceivable given how many had early access, the fact Bethesda games sell over a long time and of course the DLC next year. Anyone saying otherwise is letting their emotions get the better of them. Yes for some reason people have become very emotional about Starfield

I think you're the one letting your emotions get the better of you. 10 million players doesn't equate to 10 million purchases. Starfield is not showing signs of having long legs the way Fallout 4 and Skyrim did especially without a PS5 release.

 

[Hudo]

If they re-release it 5 times over the next 10 years, it might be achievable.

 

[Fake]

Why not 1 trillion?

 

[King Dazzar]

They did try to monetise mods before. Maybe that and DLC and the inevitable special editions. But I'm guessing this is all very much based on them expecting this to be as timeless and classical as Skyrim and I just dont see it on the same level at all. Sooo, good luck n' all that!

 

[Guerilla Munch]

Step one: pay 7.6 billion American dollars (plus tip) for Starfield

Step 2: publicly state you (hope to) reach $1 billion (hopefully) in sales (4 years from now)

Step 3: ?

Step 4: profit!

 

[West Texas CEO]

 

[jroc74]

Completely conceivable given how many had early access, the fact Bethesda games sell over a long time and of course the DLC next year. Anyone saying otherwise is letting their emotions get the better of them. Yes for some reason people have become very emotional about Starfield

Seems logic is getting the better of some ppl thinking players equal sales that includes Game Pass.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

In this case, it’s a big leg up that Bethesda is owned by the only platform owner their game is on.

Yes they’ll still have to give brick & mortar retailers and Steam a cut but I doubt the publisher (MS) and digital storefront (MS) on Xbox are taking their usual “cut”.

Also it’s revenue, not profit as you mentioned. Even f the ASP is only $60 you only need to sell 16.6M copies to get to a billion. FWIW, Skyrim has sold over 30M copies. Four years is probably a bit wishful though, especially with somewhat tepid post-launch reactions.

The biggest question is how they’re compensated through GamePass.

FWIW, being released multiple times on multiple systems....not being released on PS5 is definitely going to cost this game revenue. I doubt Starfield has a prayers chance of making up that lost revenue with game pass subscriptions. It has been out for two weeks now. MS would be screaming through the rooftops if it resulted in a drastic increase is Gamepass subscriptions. So far, they are using metrics like "10 million players"

 

[mansoor1980]

the final step.......................re-release starfield again and again

 

[Roufianos]

Predicting that half of the players are purchasers seems insane.

 

[artsi]

Skyrim was a revolutionary RPG in a well known series with epic music, strong lore/identity and ultimate meme power.

Starfield is not that. Stop expecting Starfield to do Skyrim numbers.

 

[Represent.]

This game will scare future publishers off of gamepass

 

[adamsapple]

They ended up making $7bn.

Nice.

 

[graywolf323]

FWIW, being released multiple times on multiple systems....not being released on PS5 is definitely going to cost this game revenue. I doubt Starfield has a prayers chance of making up that lost revenue with game pass subscriptions. It has been out for two weeks now. MS would be screaming through the rooftops if it resulted in a drastic increase is Gamepass subscriptions. So far, they are using metrics like "10 million players"

there’s still some on here claiming Game Pass has hit 30 million subscribers and Xbox is just waiting for the right moment to announce it

 

[phant0m]

Predicting that half of the players are purchasers seems insane.

I think it’s probably no far off.

I would venture that probably 80% of PC players purchased on Steam, just so they don’t have to use the mediocre at best MS Store/Xbox app.

Xbox consoles are probably 70/30 in favor of GP.

But I will say a Billy is waaaay more realistic if the game was on PS as well.

 

[Negotiator101]

Seems logic is getting the better of some ppl thinking players equal sales that includes Game Pass.

Having trouble reading my post, nevermind

 

[Dick Jones]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

 

[Negotiator101]

I think you're the one letting your emotions get the better of you. 10 million players doesn't equate to 10 million purchases. Starfield is not showing signs of having long legs the way Fallout 4 and Skyrim did especially without a PS5 release.

Not showing signs of having long legs? looks at September 6th release date

 

[SJRB]

It's fun to jumble numbers around until you get the results that you want. I do that all the time at the office.

 

[Dacvak]

Skyrim did 1b in the first 30 days. I wouldn't be surprised if Starfield does 1b in its lifespan.

 

[Draugoth]

7/10 IGN Review too strong.

Please Nerf

 

[Thirty7ven]

Lol cut early sales in half and it will still have no problem doing it?

Then what was the point of the original math, if any math does it?

 

[jroc74]

Having trouble reading my post, nevermind

Isn't it ironic.....