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Dude really typed a total guess work. Would take it more seriously if we did had a base number for now. That said, if you told me that Starfield could make $1 Billion in revenue in 4 years, I would say yeah that's a possibility. Probably likely even.

 

[graywolf323]

I'm gonna guess it's somewhere in between 40 and 50 million users. It was probably around 30 million before Starfield launch, and adding the 10m (more or less) converted Gold users plus Starfield subs should put it in that 40-50m range.

you really really should have the mods update your username… you’re an evangelist alright but it hasn’t been for Sega in a long time

 

[Heisenberg007]

Players do equate sells genius. Unless you believe the 10 million players got the game for free. Subscribers are still paying customers, too.

Not when a game launches on a subscription service.

 

[IntentionalPun]

Dude really typed a total guess work. Would take it more seriously if we did had a base number for now. That said, if you told me that Starfield could make $1 Billion in revenue in 4 years, I would say yeah that's a possibility. Probably likely even.

Especially since this report is before they got bought by Microsoft.

When the game would have been on Xbox, PC and Playstation, and not day 1 on a subscription service.

 

[Gaiff]

We are being real here. Fallout 4 had a large PlayStation base and didn’t have Gamepass to contend with.

This was when people paid $60 for the game. Now MS are being forced in to giving the game away for a lot less. Somehow people still do not understand that the sub model is completely unsustainable apart from rich kid Xbox being funded by their rich Daddy. It’s all fake I’m afraid.

No, neither of you is being realistic. Game Pass won't make Starfield drop to 1/4th of what it was supposed to earn even accounting for the loss Playstation userbase. The game would need to sell around 16M units at full price to reach that figure over 4 years. Fallout 4 shipped 12M in 24 hours. Starfield can absolutely sell 20M over the next 4 years, even considering the Game Pass impact.

 

[Gavon West]

Wasn't it already revealed that they made $200 million from Premium Edition pre-sales alone?

The early access was $100 and they sold 1+ million in, like 48 hrs if I'm not mistaken on Steam alone.

 

[Gavon West]

Not when a game launches on a subscription service.

Oh, that's right. The subscription service is "free". My bad.. Carry on.

 

[M1chl]

Lol cut early sales in half and it will still have no problem doing it?

Then what was the point of the original math, if any math does it?

Yeah that was like 35 bucks, I believe I payed 900CZK which is ~39USD

 

[NickFire]

Especially since this report is before they got bought by Microsoft.

When the game would have been on Xbox, PC and Playstation, and not day 1 on a subscription service.

That's literally what makes the thread interesting.

But anyway, I can' be the only one who has wondered about your tag over the years? So spill the beans!

 

[Heisenberg007]

Oh, that's right. The subscription service is "free". My bad.. Carry on.

Who said it is free?

Subscription service players do NOT equate to game sales though.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

No, neither of you is being realistic. Game Pass won't make Starfield drop to 1/4th of what it was supposed to earn even accounting for the loss Playstation userbase. The game would need to sell around 16M units at full price to reach that figure over 4 years. Fallout 4 shipped 12M in 24 hours. Starfield can absolutely sell 20M over the next 4 years, even considering the Game Pass impact.

enjoy your upcoming smash hits on gamepass

 

[nemiroff]

Is this multiplatform projections, pre - MS, pre Gamepass? And if so I guess that we are supposed to disregard all of that (sorry for not reading the script)?

 

[jroc74]

Players do equate sells genius. Unless you believe the 10 million players got the game for free. Subscribers are still paying customers, too.

So Bethesda are including Game Pass users in this estimate?

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Players do equate sells genius. Unless you believe the 10 million players got the game for free. Subscribers are still paying customers, too.

No "genius" it doesn't. It would IF Starfield was the only game on Gamepass, but it isn't.

I am a subscriber, but I have a subscription, because I took advantage of the conversion from years ago. Mine ends in 2025. I doubt I will renew and will just go back to buying games the normal way.

 

[Auto_aim1]

This is just a bunch of armchair analysis.

 

[Slicker than your average]

Whoever wrote that piece can't count. Embarrassing.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

you really really should have the mods update your username… you’re an evangelist alright but it hasn’t been for Sega in a long time

SEGA will always be number one, but I naturally became an Xbox fan due to Shenmue 2, Jet Set Radio Future, and Panzer Dragon Orta being on Xbox. It's probably not worth responding to idiotic posts like yours, though, as I haven't written anything crazy in this thread.

 

[Gaiff]

enjoy your upcoming smash hits on gamepass

Yeah, so nothing but a troll post. Game Pass will destroy the sales so badly it won't even hit 1/4th of Fallout 4's numbers.

 

[jroc74]

Oh, that's right. The subscription service is "free". My bad.. Carry on.

Please explain how Bethesda would use Game Pass revenue for this estimate....

 

[Heisenberg007]

No "genius" it doesn't. It would IF Starfield was the only game on Gamepass, but it isn't.

Even then $11 p/m does not equate to $70 game sale.

To achieve similar revenue, they'd have had to recompensate 1 game sale around launch with more than 6 Game Pass subscriptions.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

No, neither of you is being realistic. Game Pass won't make Starfield drop to 1/4th of what it was supposed to earn even accounting for the loss Playstation userbase. The game would need to sell around 16M units at full price to reach that figure over 4 years. Fallout 4 shipped 12M in 24 hours. Starfield can absolutely sell 20M over the next 4 years, even considering the Game Pass impact.

This assumes Starfield doesn't drop in price, which is a ridiculous assumption.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

Yeah, so nothing but a troll post. Game Pass will destroy the sales so badly it won't even hit 1/4th of Fallout 4's numbers.

Sales don’t really matter to me, I don’t really care about how much money a faceless corporate entity makes. I care about the rolling product being of high quality and providing me with a lot of entertainment for my money. If you’re getting that from gamepass I’m sincerely happy for you. I don’t believe this model is sustainable however, only for Xbox, being funded by the profits of a separate technology umbrella.

Read the leaks about MS’s lead software architect basically warning about this. Xbox is being left to run riot but I believe eventually someone is going to cut them off unless they actually start to make some sort of foothold. Nintendo and Sony are crushing them using the old fashioned method of making good games and hardware.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Even then $11 p/m does not equate to $70 game sale.

To achieve similar revenue, they'd have had to recompensate 1 game sale around launch with more than 6 Game Pass subscriptions.

In Starfield's case it would it would need the $16 p/m since it isn't part of the $11 tier.

On another note, Gamepass Core at $60 a year is actually pretty reasonable.

 

[NonPhixion]

I wonder how much revenue they will get from the 7000 reward points I used for one month of PC Gamepass? Hmmmm

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Sales don’t really matter to me, I don’t really care about how much money a faceless corporate entity makes. I care about the rolling product being of high quality and providing me with a lot of entertainment for my money. If you’re getting that from gamepass I’m sincerely happy for you. I don’t believe this model is sustainable however, only for Xbox, being funded by the profits of a separate technology umbrella.

Read the leaks about MS’s lead software architect basically warning about this. Xbox is being left to run riot but I believe eventually someone is going to cut them off unless they actually start to make some sort of foothold. Nintendo and Sony are crushing them using the old fashioned method of making good games and hardware.

yes, I have said the same thing. People loved the goodies being provided by Gamepass, but ultimately it needs to make money in the long run. I don't believe MS will ever have a prayers chance of catching the quality of Nintendo and Sony as long as thet continue to employ people like Spencer, Booty and Greenberg.

 

[Gaiff]

This assumes Starfield doesn't drop in price, which is a ridiculous assumption.

No, it would make $1.4B if it didn't drop in price. The $400M less is assuming price drops over the course of the next few years.

Sales don’t really matter to me, I don’t really care about how much money a faceless corporate entity makes. I care about the rolling product being of high quality and providing me with a lot of entertainment for my money. If you’re getting that from gamepass I’m sincerely happy for you. I don’t believe this model is sustainable however, only for Xbox, being funded by the profits of a separate technology umbrella.

Read the leaks about MS’s lead software architect basically warning about this. Xbox is being left to run riot but I believe eventually someone is going to cut them off unless they actually start to make some sort of foothold. Nintendo and Sony are crushing them using the old fashioned method of making good games and hardware.

Which is cool but has nothing to do with the thread. Starfield without Game Pass and with Playstation would probably be already close to $1B by now, just like Fallout 4. Because of the loss of PS users and the Game Pass Impact, we're stretching what could have happened in like 2-3 months to 4 years. How is this unrealistic?

 

[Negotiator101]

This was when people paid $60 for the game. Now MS are being forced in to giving the game away for a lot less. Somehow people still do not understand that the sub model is completely unsustainable apart from rich kid Xbox being funded by their rich Daddy. It’s all fake I’m afraid.

You're afraid alright, no doubt about it.

 

[GHG]

This sales projection is just a thought experiment.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

This sales projection is just a thought experiment.

I know you're just joking, but what do you think is a sensible projection pre-MS acquisition for a multiplatform BGS first new IP in forever at $69.99? 1 billion sounds pretty reasonable to me.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

You're afraid alright, no doubt about it.

 

[GHG]

I know you're just joking, but what do you think is a sensible projection pre-MS acquisition for a multiplatform BGS first new IP in forever at $69.99? 1 billion sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Oh so now people want to state it was going to be multiplatform?

Sorry, silly me, there was me thinking that it was never going to release anywhere other than where it has due to them not announcing specific platforms for the game prior to the acquisition.

Who knows, maybe these projections were only for Xbox/PC afterall? Hell, it might have been slated to be PC only without Microsoft's intervention.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Oh so now people want to state it was going to be multiplatform?

Sorry, silly me, there was me thinking that it was never going to release anywhere other than where it has due to them not announcing specific platforms for the game prior to the acquisition.

Who knows, maybe these projections were only for Xbox/PC afterall? Hell, it might have been slated to be PC only.

I'd assume it's a multiplatform projection in order to figure out the value of Zenimax for the sale, yeah. I doubt they did the projection based on the rumor that it would be a PlayStation timed exclusive.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

PC sales and long-tail sales from discounts, yeah eventually it could hit $1 billion. I think losing a PS SKU makes this harder to accomplish, given how huge the PS5 install base is vs Xbox current-gen.

 

[GHG]

I'd assume it's a multiplatform projection in order to figure out the value of Zenimax for the sale, yeah. I doubt they did the projection based on the rumor that it would be a PlayStation exclusive.

We will never know, personally I wouldn't be so quick to make assumptions.

Let us remember that if not for Microsoft there was no guarantee it was going to even ever land on Xbox consoles.

 

[FearlessBelgian]

This is absolutely impossible with Gamepass, which takes 80% of potential sales...

 

[SEGAvangelist]

We will never know, personally I wouldn't be so quick to make assumptions.

Let us remember that if not for Microsoft there was no guarantee it was going to even ever land on Xbox consoles.

Phil Spencer pretty much said one of the reasons they acquired Bethesda was because Sony would pay for games like Starfield to not come to Xbox. I get that. But when you are making an evaluation to make a bid for Bethesda, the number would likely come from multiplatform sales. That's why I find the laughing in here to be pretty ridiculous. It's an extremely sensible projection.

 

[GHG]

Phil Spencer pretty much said one of the reasons they acquired Bethesda was because Sony would pay for games like Starfield to not come to Xbox. I get that. But when you are making an evaluation to make a bid for Bethesda, the number would likely come from multiplatform sales. That's why I find the laughing in here to be pretty ridiculous. It's an extremely sensible projection.

Praise Phil for saving the game then and giving it every chance of achieving what Bethesda initially projected.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Praise Phil for saving the game then and giving it every chance of achieving what Bethesda initially projected.

Where did you get that from? I never wrote anything about this game not being released otherwise. Your posts are created in such bad faith at this point.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Well they got purchased by Microsoft for $7.5 billion, and maybe $1 billion was just for Starfield.

So in a way, you can say they already got their mon--

They ended up making $7bn.

Nice.

Nice to see you also have a sense of humor about it.

And basically beat me to my own joke :/

the final step.......................re-release starfield again and again

So they really fear Rockstar? Makes sense.

 

[Eotheod]

It's profitable no doubt. How profitable who knows. But hey can't stop the Starfield hate machine whirring past!

 

[GHG]

Where did you get that from? I never wrote anything about this game not being released otherwise. Your posts are created in such bad faith at this point.

You've talked about this idea that Sony were about to make it exclusive before Phil stepped in, surely if that were to be the case then they would have factored it into their projections?

Not sure why that's something you're willing to bring up but not factor in?

 

[arkhamguy123]

Lol when in 2028?

We have enough real world data to extrapolate that it didn’t do so hot on a sales basis. Steam and the UK sales charts are pretty unambiguously clear.

It did so mediocre they had to announce it by how many people have played it. Which is classic Microsoft cope. Need I remind people of when halo infinite was the biggest halo launch of all time due to “amount of players”. Now this is the “”biggest bethesda launch of all time”” cmon. Fool me once.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

You've talked about this idea that Sony were about to make it exclusive before Phil stepped in, surely if that were to be the case then they would have factored it into their projections?

Not sure why that's something you're willing to bring up but not factor in?

You implied that I wrote that the game would not be released without Phil. Like he's saving it from being cancelled or something. And why would they factor in a possible Sony timed exclusive release when making a company evaluation? Bethesda would laugh at them for presenting a number with that in mind.

 

[Trogdor1123]

Fallout 4 generated $750M in 24 hours and people think Starfield won't hit $1B after 4 years? I love mocking the game as much as anyone else but let's be real here.

How much did it do on each platform?

 

[GHG]

You implied that I wrote that the game would not be released without Phil. Like he's saving it from being cancelled or something. And why would they factor in a possible Sony timed exclusive release when making a company evaluation? Bethesda would laugh at them for presenting a number with that in mind.

No, I'm just going off what we've been told multiple times here over the last 12 months or so, hence the post I linked.

If you want to assert that Sony were angling to make the game exclusive to their platform (which by the way, only has the flimsy "evidence" of Phil Spencer's words backing that up) and talks were as advanced and as concrete as we were led to believe by him then it's something Bethesda would have certainly factored in.

Therefore, these numbers should be very much attainable for Xbox/PC alone regardless, there needn't be any excuses.

 

[ByWatterson]

They made $7 billion, really.

 

[poppabk]

It really pains people to not be able to quantify things by sales like before. It's amusing to watch people twist and turn trying to quantify the unquantifiable.

 

[SSfox]

Without even a PS5 release?

Good luck BRUH

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

PC sales and long-tail sales from discounts, yeah eventually it could hit $1 billion. I think losing a PS SKU makes this harder to accomplish, given how huge the PS5 install base is vs Xbox current-gen.

It's not just skipping PS systems that make it almost impossible; highly likely the game will skip Nintendo systems, too.

At first I thought the game could do 14 or so million lifetime between Xbox & PC (not necessarily $1 billion in sales that way, just units moved), but that was assuming much stronger reception. At best reception towards the game is "It's decent-to-good, but nothing special". Even in the context of other big games released this year, it falls very flat compared to say Hogwarts or TOTK, or Baldur's Gate 3, and I think it'll fall flat to Spiderman 2 as well plus Super Mario Bros. Wonder and the Super Mario RPG remake.

So sales will probably start slowing down a lot if they haven't already. They can maybe still reach 14 million lifetime (mostly on PC) but it'll really come down to how long DLC comes out, how good it is, and how good the mod community's support for the game is. But $1 billion? Yeah that isn't happening without porting it to Sony and/or Nintendo platforms.

Unless Microsoft wants to start breaking down Game Pass subscriber & revenue uptick on a per-game basis. Which I don't think they will ever do, because once they start, everyone (gamers, shareholders, investors, analysts etc.) will expect them to keep with that transparency, or take lack of it as admittance of model failure.

 

[Mr Moose]

Phil Spencer pretty much said one of the reasons they acquired Bethesda was because Sony would pay for games like Starfield to not come to Xbox. I get that. But when you are making an evaluation to make a bid for Bethesda, the number would likely come from multiplatform sales. That's why I find the laughing in here to be pretty ridiculous. It's an extremely sensible projection.

Phil is a lying asshole. It was Bethesda shopping around for timed exclusive deals.