Support NeoGAF

[Negotiator101]

Isn't it ironic.....

don't you think?

 

[violence]

I think they were shooting for a game that would sell for years like Skyrim.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Step one: pay 7.6 billion American dollars (plus tip) for Starfield

Step 2: publicly state you (hope to) reach $1 billion (hopefully) in sales (4 years from now)

Step 3: ?

Step 4: profit!

What a stupid post. Where was any of this publicly stated?

 

[Melfice7]

But they wont say the actual sales right? just hours played or something silly like that

 

[Negotiator101]

I think they were shooting for a game that would sell for years like Skyrim.

Were?

 

[SlimySnake]

I don't believe there is a prayers chance that Starfield makes $1 billion.

I'd love to see the math where they come up with that number.

You need 10 million copies in year 1 at $70 to hit $700 million. the rest is easy. Cyberpunk sold 13 million in a month. Elden Ring sold 10 million in a month. Hogwarts made $850 million in 12 days.

The only problem is that they are launching this on gamepass and the word of mouth isnt particularly great so it will hurt the game's legs AND the first month's sales. I guess we wont know the true impact of either unless they announce sales figures.

 

[archangelmorph]

If it can sustain a long tail it may make it but it will take a lot of time.

 

[Zathalus]

It's over a 4 year span so it seems plausible.

 

[Pelta88]

They're going to miss that target by some margin.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Not showing signs of having long legs? looks at September 6th release date

Weird. I see that same date too and I also see a game who's score and player count continues to go down....

 

[Heisenberg007]

 

[Nankatsu]

I bet it was someone from Microsoft who did the math for them.

They excel at forecasting.

 

[Chuck Berry]

If they re-release it on the PS5, it might be achievable.

Fixed

 

[Negotiator101]

It's over a 4 year span so it seems plausible.

Yeah seems most on here have difficulty grasping that fact.

 

[Tomofdahook17]

That isn't really suprising but at the same time it's actually insane that the game could sell that well while doing nothing really innovating at all.

I mean jesus, the prone crawling mechanic alone in Last of Us Part 2 felt more innovative than probably this entire game.

That's not saying Starfield is bad though because I think it's pretty fucking awesome.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

You need 10 million copies in year 1 at $70 to hit $700 million. the rest is easy. Cyberpunk sold 13 million in a month. Elden Ring sold 10 million in a month. Hogwarts made $850 million in 12 days.

The only problem is that they are launching this on gamepass and the word of mouth isnt particularly great so it will hurt the game's legs AND the first month's sales. I guess we wont know the true impact of either unless they announce sales figures.

The fact that MS only announces player counts is telling.

I do think Starfield will do well, but (sadly) I do not think it will move the needle all that much in the console space. As you said, word of mouth hasn't been as strong as for something like Baldur's Gate 3.

 

[fart town usa]

What if MS just cuts them a check for 1 billion?

The Game Pass effect.

 

[mejin]

Margin accountability at its best

 

[NickFire]

Some might say it made them 7 Billion before it even went gold.

 

[TheUsual]

Would be interesting to see how many Xbox accounts downloaded and played it (on Xbox and PC) via Game pass. Also if we could ever see how many of those accounts then went and bought a copy and if/what Microsoft's expectation of that is (has to be a minor conversion % , but they have to have some expectation there).

 

[coffinbirth]

Wasn't it already revealed that they made $200 million from Premium Edition pre-sales alone?

 

[ungalo]

It's pretty obvious it was before the acquisition.

It also shows that they expected 1 billion for TES 6 in one fiscal year, so they didn't believe Starfield was the next TES.

 

[Chuck Berry]

The only problem is that they are launching this on gamepass and the word of mouth isnt particularly great so it will hurt the game's legs AND the first month's sales. I guess we wont know the true impact of either unless they announce sales figures.

Which they'll never do. If sales #'s do come out it'll be a fucking leak just like every MS related thing lately lol

 

[sono]

Ps6 edition included

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Wasn't it already revealed that they made $200 million from Premium Edition pre-sales alone?

People were definitely hyped to play the game. I was one of those who bought the Premium Edition Gamepass version.

It's just now that it is out and exposed to the masses, word of mouth hasn't been as strong and it seems like it will be forgotten far sooner than previous Bethesda games.

Yes, it does some things well.

 

[kaizenkko]

With gamepass? It's almost the end of September and Microsoft has not yet announce any subscription boost thanks to the GOTY.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

With gamepass? It's almost the end of September and Microsoft has not yet announce any subscription boost thanks to the GOTY.

I don't think we'll see a subs number until a few weeks after Forza Motorsport launches.

 

[Fools idol]

can you guys imagine if they spend 7 years working on the new elder scrolls and it comes out mediocre as well?
lmao

 

[Heisenberg007]

With gamepass? It's almost the end of September and Microsoft has not yet announce any subscription boost thanks to the GOTY.

Even if they do, that data would be almost useless because they also migrated XBLG users to Game Pass (Core) in September -- at the exact time of Starfield's release.

So even if they announce 32 million subscribers now, we won't know if those are because of the XBLG migration or Starfield.

 

[rexux-Corocotta]

FWIW, Skyrim has sold over 30M copies.

60M

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Surpasses 60 Million in Lifetime Sales

Bethesda Game Studios has announced that The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim has crossed a whopping 60 million in lifetime sales.

mp1st.com

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Even if they do, that data would be almost useless because they also migrated XBLG users to Game Pass (Core) in September -- at the exact time of Starfield's release.

So even if they announce 32 million subscribers now, we won't know if those are because of the XBLG migration or Starfield.

I'm gonna guess it's somewhere in between 40 and 50 million users. It was probably around 30 million before Starfield launch, and adding the 10m (more or less) converted Gold users plus Starfield subs should put it in that 40-50m range.

 

[Zekra Dezivad]

if only half of the 10 million players purchased the base $70 version of the game, that's still $350,000,000

All those 1% chinese players redeemed!

 

[Virex]

don't you think?

And who would have thought, it figures?

 

[Zheph]

The tiny issue is that Starfield isn't Skyrim

 

[NonPhixion]

Hahaha this dated formula/game design isn't going to have "long legs" in 2023 and beyond. Hahahahahahahaahahaaa

 

[SEGAvangelist]

Hahaha this dated formula/game design isn't going to have "long legs" in 2023 and beyond. Hahahahahahahaahahaaa

Well, it seems to be doing pretty great in Xbox charts. https://www.trueachievements.com/xbox-chart

4 weeks most played for a single-player game seems unheard of for an Xbox game. Also, each DLC drop will boost players and sales, and this is the kind of game that will also get continual updates with each hardware release. I don't think we see Skyrim or Fallout numbers, but I do think that you and a lot of other people here are massively underestimating what this game will probably do in the end.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

How TF people are still incapable to understand a developer makes a fraction of the full retail price? I don't even get into revenue vs. net profit.

It's even worse.

The game is on GamePass. That's 10m players, not 10m copies sold. Where do you think a huge chunk of those players are.... dun dun dunnnn!!!

 

[Robb]

 

[Gaiff]

Fallout 4 generated $750M in 24 hours and people think Starfield won't hit $1B after 4 years? I love mocking the game as much as anyone else but let's be real here.

 

[//DEVIL//]

The game was on cracked sites before it was released, because they didn't want to add Denovo or whatever it's called.

And then there is a game pass which has a purpose not to buy games.

I don't see this game making half that at all inits life.

How many copies have they sold so far? Wasn't the peak player 350k or something on Steam?

Let's assume it sold Double that or even triple. Hell they sold 4 million copies already which is 280 million

That's assuming they sold 4 million during all this hype, which they didn't.

So unless I am mistaken somewhere, the math is way off for them

 

[IntentionalPun]

Isn't this from before they were bought by Microsoft?

AKA before the game would have been day 1 on Gamepass?

Before the game was 1 console exclusive?

Might be some relevant info there for this thread lol

 

[JohnnyFootball]

I'm gonna guess it's somewhere in between 40 and 50 million users. It was probably around 30 million before Starfield launch, and adding the 10m (more or less) converted Gold users plus Starfield subs should put it in that 40-50m range.

You seriously think that GP is now in the 40-50M range?

Yeah there's no way.

 

[Shake Your Rump]

Well, Microsoft paid $7.5 billion for the company, so, technically, Bethesda made $7.5 billion without even having to create a game.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Fallout 4 generated $750M in 24 hours and people think Starfield won't hit $1B after 4 years? I love mocking the game as much as anyone else but let's be real here.

We are being real here. Fallout 4 had a large PlayStation base and didn't have Gamepass to contend with.

 

[Kenneth Haight]

Fallout 4 generated $750M in 24 hours and people think Starfield won't hit $1B after 4 years? I love mocking the game as much as anyone else but let's be real here.

This was when people paid $60 for the game. Now MS are being forced in to giving the game away for a lot less. Somehow people still do not understand that the sub model is completely unsustainable apart from rich kid Xbox being funded by their rich Daddy. It's all fake I'm afraid.

 

[SEGAvangelist]

You seriously think that GP is now in the 40-50M range?

Yeah there's no way.

I don't get how that's crazy. It looks like Game Pass was already at 30m based on that LinkedIn resume. Add the 10m or so Gold users converted to Core Game Pass and then whatever subs were gained from Starfield, and 40m+ seems like a pretty good guess.

 

[Gavon West]

Seems logic is getting the better of some ppl thinking players equal sales that includes Game Pass.

Players do equate sells genius. Unless you believe the 10 million players got the game for free. Subscribers are still paying customers, too.

 

[MarkMe2525]

Cool.... I imagine this is a pre-acquisition report.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I'm gonna guess it's somewhere in between 40 and 50 million users. It was probably around 30 million before Starfield launch, and adding the 10m (more or less) converted Gold users plus Starfield subs should put it in that 40-50m range.

That seems close. My guess is that it'd be around between 36M and 43M.