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[darth.shrimp]

It'll sell. Not as much as the first Switch of course, but it'll definitely sell. Don't underestimate the power of a new Mario Kart, and other first-party Nintendo games down the line.

 

[NeoIkaruGAF]

It won’t go anywhere near Switch 1 numbers, for the very obvious reason of price. But this is just a consequence of the Switch 1 maintaining a very affordable price for all of its lifespan. The age of impulse-buy hardware is over. Plus, with politics and the economy being what they are currently, in the near future a lot of people may have to worry about very different things than playing video games.

That said, I think 50 million should be the bare minimum. There is going to be nothing comparable on the market at that price for quite a while. Of course, even if it sold 100 million, people will say it’s a failure.

 

[L*][*N*K]

Nintendo pushed Zelda forward with Breath of the Wild, it seems to me they are pushing Mario Kart forward with World, if they manage to do the same with franchises like Pokemon and Animal Crossing on Switch 2 I am certain it will make Switch 2 a household name, so I think anything around 100m is reasonable.

 

[Randall365]

It depends on the games. It only needs one getting 95 in the first month or two and momentum will be build. Wii numbers seem most likely without covid though.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

It'll sell. Not as much as the first Switch of course, but it'll definitely sell. Don't underestimate the power of a new Mario Kart, and other first-party Nintendo games down the line.

It’s worth noting that Nintendo ‘s core franchises are having real mainstream success was now, especially the likes of Zelda, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

Wii and DS were also successful, but these were mainly off the back of gimmicky games that appealed to an audience that got swept up by mobile.

 

[Impotaku]

Bookmarking this thread for future crow consumption hilarity. Until the mods eventually lock it years later because of how embarrassingly wrong people got it.

 

[CuteFaceJay]

Open world Mario Kart FORZA STYLE As a launch title! This thing has "It-prints-money.gif" potential.

 

[HRK69]

I think it’s going to be a success

The device feels like a natural evolution of the original Switch, and I’m all for it

My only complaint is the pricing of the games, especially the upgrades. Improvements like higher FPS for existing games shouldn’t be locked behind a paywall

 

[Interfectum]

If you vote less than 80 million you’re either a troll or a moron (possibly both).

 

[falling into hell]

100 million but I'm bad at predicting things

 

[PeteBull]

Voted 150m units/same as og switch, even tho im not buying it at launch, maybe only in 2026 to experience that bloodborn2 miyazaki goodness.
We all know how nintendo fans are, first 40-50milions gonna go super smoothly and by then instalbase will be too huge to ignore- more 3rd party games gonna come, which will make switch 2 sell even more units.

 

[IAmRei]

Lot of factor nowadays, not only there are stronger competitor in handheld and monstrous mobile for younger gens, it's harder to predict now.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Open world Mario Kart FORZA STYLE As a launch title! This thing has "It-prints-money.gif" potential.

For all the talk of prices when factoring Inflation Switch 2+ Mario Kart works out cheaper than Switch 1 + BotW did in 2017.

If this bundle is still on sale at Christmas it’ll sell gangbusters.

 

[John Bilbo]

It will be a huge success. I hope Nintendo will cave in to the pressure and lower the pricing of the first party games though.

 

[Shockwave_Fox]

I think it will do well - maybe not quite as well as the original Switch but we are living in different times now in regards to the economy, prices and all that bullshit.

I personally wont be getting one, I havent used my Switch barely at all.

 

[YOU PC BRO?!]

Sadly, it is too expensive to hit numbers like the Switch. Nintendo always have the option to make most of their new releases cross-gen so a lower install base won't really hurt all that much. Regardless, it'll still be a resounding success even if it fails to break 100 million units sold.

 

[drganon]

80-100m range.

 

[LakeOf9]

Bumping this because the tariffs have added a whole other mess to this shit show

Nintendo is not going to love switch 2 sales, you’re constantly chasing Wii sales and I think that was a freak anomaly.

They've exceeded Wii sales twice after Wii's release and once before, so I am not sure what anomaly you are talking about

 

[Black_Stride]

With DLSS and GameKey Cards......these guys have sorted themselves for a while.

Cost be damned.

 

[Fbh]

Overall yes but not on the same level as the Switch 1.
I could see something like a DS --> 3DS scenario, maybe a bit better.

 

[Walliwallipaloo]

I mean, so long as people are still into videogames. Like, what else is there to buy?

That'll seriously be the driving force behind its success, and Nintendo knows it, hence its release window. "What else ya gonna look forward to, kid?"

 

[eNT1TY]

Will be a resounding success and will be scalpled well into the holidays for $600+.

 

[Hawk The Slayer]

it’s going to be a success 99% of the time. Although it could be the most successful Nintendo console ever and still won’t be as good as the N64.

 

[FStubbs]

I'm going to say it will sell around NES levels. Which for a unified platform, is a complete crash and burn.

This thing has no enthusiasm at launch and no exciting launch game. DS is the only platform they had that started in that kind of hole and caught fire later.

 

[Evil Calvin]

It will sell, but won't be at Switch levels. Lemmings will buy it regardless. Much like the lemmings who voted for Cheetoman

 

[Chuck Berry]

Lakeof9 finally back and what's he do? Another fucking poll

 

[Danjin44]

I don’t know but I hope so since I enjoy Nintendo games.

 

[QLQ]

Selling 90 million or less is not a "success" of any kind. NES level success ? more like NES level failure . 60 million coming from 160 million, who are you kidding? The software will also be key. Higher prices, but can they upset lower unit sales? Will they have as many multi-million sellers? How many 10-40 million sellers? That's an even taller measure if you ask me.

 

[LakeOf9]

I'm going to say it will sell around NES levels. Which for a unified platform, is a complete crash and burn.

This thing has no enthusiasm at launch and no exciting launch game. DS is the only platform they had that started in that kind of hole and caught fire later.

Mario Kart and DK both look awesome, and I think Kart will review very well which will really help it at launch

Personally I think 3DS level sales (75 million) are the baseline, and it will probably be a little bit higher. NES levels would definitely be an underperformance (though thankfully it won't be Wii U or GameCube levels bad so Nintendo can still easily come back after regrouping)

 

[LakeOf9]

Whoever is reading this 5 years later, I hope you can join me with laughing out loud.

Funny you called that out but not the "Wii U level" votes

 

[nial]

Funny you called that out but not the "Wii U level" votes

Those are basic trolling, the ones I pointed out are not, sadly enough.

 

[GrandlyBodacious]

Selling 90 million or less is not a "success" of any kind.

 

[LakeOf9]

Those are basic trolling, the ones I pointed out are not, sadly enough.

Fair enough lol

I think both extremes are very unlikely. I do think Nintendo fumbled and it won't do as well as it could have, but ~80 million is probably a safe guess.

 

[IDKFA]

It will be a success, because it's Nintendo.

That's not true. The Wii U flopped. The Gamecube wasn't a success. Even the N64 wasn't considered a success.

Will it do as well as the Switch? I don't think so.

Agreed

I'm guessing it'll fall somewhere like 80–100 million units over its lifetime.

I'm expecting far less. Personally maybe around 50 million if Nintendo are lucky.

I think there will be a lot of families who won't feel the need to upgrade from Switch to Switch 2, especially at the price points given and to replay the same games.

Which is why I'm giving a low figure. Families make up a large percentage of Nintendo's customer base. Are families going to be flocking to a more expensive consoles with far more expensive games? In this economic climate? I think not.

But the console will pick up traction after more first party exclusives and heavy hitters come out.

Not guaranteed. First party exclusives didn't save the Wii U or the Gamecube.

Also, Nintendo still made a profit on Wii U, so by all means it was successful enough.

Did they make a profit? I remember during the Wii U era Nintendo posted an annual operating loss for the first time in decades.

 

[QLQ]

90 million coming off 160 million? you would call that a success? Ok...I bet company higher-ups and shareholders won't.

 

[Dacvak]

It will be a success, because it's Nintendo.

Will it do as well as the Switch? I don't think so.

I'm guessing it'll fall somewhere like 80–100 million units over its lifetime.

I think there will be a lot of families who won't feel the need to upgrade from Switch to Switch 2, especially at the price points given and to replay the same games.

But the console will pick up traction after more first party exclusives and heavy hitters come out.

Also, Nintendo still made a profit on Wii U, so by all means it was successful enough.

My thoughts exactly.

Also, the moment that Pokemon moves to Switch 2 exclusive, we're gonna see a huge bump in sales. I think its lifetime will be 80-100mil.

 

[LakeOf9]

Did they make a profit? I remember during the Wii U era Nintendo posted an annual operating loss for the first time in decades.

The loss came from the 3DS' emergency price drop which caused Nintendo to have to sell it below cost for the first time since the GameCube. 3DS was not sold at or above cost again until the New 3DS line, which came four years later.

 

[Liopleurodon]

not a chance in hell.

 

[GigaBowser]

dont care bout no crud having to do betters thens switch 1

n64 and ps3 my favoutite consoles ever

 

[GrandlyBodacious]

90 million coming off 160 million? you would call that a success? Ok...I bet company higher-ups and shareholders won't.

Yeah, it's pretty relative for sure.

I've got low standards I guess in determining commercial success: i.e. "Did it make a profit?" That's the whole purpose of any business, after all.

But if instead the standard is, "Did it meet sales expectations?" then there's more room for "failure."

The Wii U was profitable, so it was a success in my eyes. But in Nintendo's eyes, because it did not meet their expectations, they considered it a failure.

Personally, I think if you're selling 90 million units, you can't be too unhappy about that, even if your expectation was for it to go gangbusters like its predecessor.

So maybe in the end Switch 2 will be considered a "failure" if compared to Switch 1. But undoubtedly it will make Nintendo money.

 

[Mownoc]

Also, Nintendo still made a profit on Wii U, so by all means it was successful enough.

No they absolutely did not.

Nintendo Operating Profit (Net Income):

2012: -$549 Million
2013: $86 Million
2014: -$232 Million
2015: $381 Million
2016: $137 Million

Total for 2012-2016 = An operating LOSS of $177 Million.

The WiiU lost them money to the point it completely wiped out the profits they made from the 3DS. How much it lost we can't tell as we don't have uncombined figures for 3DS/WiiU.

But if we say the 3DS platform would have averaged just $250 million profit a year (low) then WiiU would be responsible for losing over $1.4 Billion in that 5 year period, it could be a lot more.

Nintendo Net Income 2010-2024 | NTDOY

Nintendo annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Nintendo net income for the quarter...

macrotrends.net

 

[GrandlyBodacious]

No they absolutely did not.

Last I looked into it I got articles like this.

And Reggie said Wii U became profitable after they sold a single game. I doubt there were any Wii U sells with 0 game purchases.

I'm looking at the Wii U independently from Nintendo's overall business performance in that span. I know initially there were losses, but it seems Nintendo eventually caught up with it in the end?

 

[Mownoc]

Last I looked into it I got articles like this.

And Reggie said Wii U became profitable after they sold a single game. Do you think there were any Wii U sales with 0 games purchased?

I'm looking at the Wii U independently from Nintendo's overall business performance in that span.

Basically Reggie is saying the hardware was sold at a loss but they break even, or profit, after one game is sold.

But that's only taking into account the cost to manufacture the hardware. It's not taking into account everything else, the cost of developing games, R&D, support staff etc.

So while Nintendo may have made a profit on the WiiU+Game sold it wasn't anywhere near to what they were spending on all the costs associated with the platform.

Imagine a company selling something that costs them $1 to make for $2 and they sell a million of them! That would be $1 million profit! But then they spend $2 million on the staff making that product so no they're still losing money on it.

 

[GrandlyBodacious]

Basically Reggie is saying the hardware was sold at a loss but they break even, or profit, after one game is sold.

But that's only taking into account the cost to manufacture the hardware. It's not taking into account everything else, the cost of developing games, R&D, support staff etc.

So while Nintendo may have made a profit on the WiiU+Game sold it wasn't anywhere near to what they were spending on all the costs associated with the platform.

Imagine a company selling something that costs them $1 to make for $2 and they sell a million of them! That would be $1 million profit! But then they spend $2 million on the staff making that product so no they're still losing money on it.

Right but sources like what I linked saying, despite those initial operating losses, they eventually caught up and in the end Wii U made them a profit.

I'm not trying to argue Wii U did amazingly well for them. I'm just being a bit snarky that if Wii U ended in a profit, even if only $1 in the green, then "mission complete."

 

[The_Mike]

Switch 2 will be a succes.

But how much? No clue, don't care, but it will without a doubt be a succes.

Us old timers on forums and Reddit and such are old timers in echo chambers.

According to everyone then exclusives should be the top most sold games on the lists, yet it's always call of duty and FIFA, aka games nobody here likes, yet it's always topping the charts.

 

[Mownoc]

Right but sources like what I linked saying, despite those initial operating losses, they eventually caught up and in the end Wii U made them a profit.

I'm not trying to argue Wii U did amazingly well for them. I'm just being a bit snarky that if Wii U ended in a profit, even if only $1 in the green, then "mission complete."

But then how do you explain Nintendo losing money overall for 2012-2016 if the WiiU was profitable? So the WiiU business was profitable but the 3DS lost money?

They lost money somewhere lol.

The first article you linked is taking the whole company operating income figures like I did and applying them solely to the WiiU. Essentially the article is nonsense. They are saying because Nintendo profited in 2015-2017 the WiiU is profitable, despite the fact the profit is less than the losses they listed in the previous years and that the 3DS finances are lumped in with them.

 

[GrandlyBodacious]

The first article you linked is taking the whole company operating income figures like I did and applying them solely to the WiiU. Essentially the article is nonsense. They are saying because Nintendo profited in 2015-2017 the WiiU is profitable, despite the fact the profit is less than the losses they listed in the previous years and that the 3DS finances are lumped in with them.

Hmm okay. I'll edit initial post and stop perpetuating bad info. Thanks for the correction. I didn't look too much further into it beyond what my initial search results showed. I'm just a monkey TBH.

 

[Forsete]

99 million.

Art of the deal tariffs will hurt it.

 

[lachesis]

Nintendo's direct successors don't tend to do as well as the predecessor (especially portables) - so I'm expecting around Wii level success this time around.
This may force them to do something more interesting on following console/portable machine. Things could change a lot in 5-7 years, so it will be indeed interesting. I'd be very surprised if they just made Switch 3.... but at the same time, they don't have luxury of playing on 2 fronts (console and portable) like pre-switch days, so they may just stick to the traditional Switch 3 with evolutionary upgrades than real innovative stuff.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

Nintendo has left the door wide open for competition in the space with how they're going about pricing their games.
But the biggest challenge, bar none? Getting people (especially kids) to retire their original Switch devices.