The LEGO Movie wasn't even nominated.
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BO Wkd 0616-1817 - Queen is dethroned, all hail McQueen, ScarJo roughed up
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
The LEGO Movie wasn't even nominated.
My curiosity with Transformers' success begins and ends with the role its profit may play in future Star Trek films. An odd statement, no doubt, so I'll explain.
Paramount isn't doing too well. Paramount hasn't been doing too well for a while. There's a new CEO in town, and it was pleasant to see him publicly name-drop Trek shortly after taking over. We nerdy Enterprise diehards were -- and rightfully still are -- worried over the health of the Abrams-launched Star Trek movies after Beyond performed below expectations last year. It's especially irksome because Beyond was actually pretty cool.
So in walks Transformers. It prints money. Apologies, duckroll, but personally I got dragged to the first one in 2007 and ducked out from there; I didn't even like that one. But regardless of my thoughts on the franchise, it's made serious bank for Paramount, and Paramount has been in sore need of serious bank. Far less bank seems to be on the horizon than anticipated. That's going to influence the studio's operating revenue, and in turn, its creative decisions.
I guess I was hoping it'd do a bit better just for the sake of Jim Gianopulos looking solid and counting more coffers and potentially increasing the chances of me seeing Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto out there on at least one more adventure.
Maybe I'm way off-base though and this doesn't change the likelihood of a Star Trek 4 at all. In which case...
¯_(ツ
_/¯
Paramount isn't doing too well. Paramount hasn't been doing too well for a while. There's a new CEO in town, and it was pleasant to see him publicly name-drop Trek shortly after taking over. We nerdy Enterprise diehards were -- and rightfully still are -- worried over the health of the Abrams-launched Star Trek movies after Beyond performed below expectations last year. It's especially irksome because Beyond was actually pretty cool.
So in walks Transformers. It prints money. Apologies, duckroll, but personally I got dragged to the first one in 2007 and ducked out from there; I didn't even like that one. But regardless of my thoughts on the franchise, it's made serious bank for Paramount, and Paramount has been in sore need of serious bank. Far less bank seems to be on the horizon than anticipated. That's going to influence the studio's operating revenue, and in turn, its creative decisions.
I guess I was hoping it'd do a bit better just for the sake of Jim Gianopulos looking solid and counting more coffers and potentially increasing the chances of me seeing Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto out there on at least one more adventure.
Maybe I'm way off-base though and this doesn't change the likelihood of a Star Trek 4 at all. In which case...
¯_(ツ
_/¯DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
0%. Its going to be Coco.
The Lego movie wasn't even nominated, so that should tell us all we need to know about Batman's chances of winning :/
So, in light of Wonder Woman's continuing legs, Transformers 5 looking like yet another big budget miss in the domestic market, and the continuing talk about review scores and box office, I thought that it would be interesting to look at all big budget (>$75M) films released so far in 2017.
I decided to look at Total domestic gross, production budget, RT score and Metacritic scores. I am focusing on the domestic market, because other foreign markets have other priorities in their Hollywood films, and RT/Metacritic reviews have almost zero mindshare in places like China.
I have also put the Marvel/DC superhero stuff in its own group, because we wouldn't want superhero fatigue to drown out any trends. Since a lot of these films are still in theatres, I went ahead and estimated final grosses. Wonder Woman and Cars 3 are the only two that I could see being off by more than $10M from what I have listed below, so these numbers should be pretty close.
2017 Big Budget (>$75M) Releases - No Marvel/DC Superhero films
- Beauty and the Beast bumped up the Domestic Gross average by $25M. Without it, the average big budget (non-superhero) film made $91M on a $144M budget.
2017 Marvel/DC Superhero Film Releases
- If you want to just look at the live action films, the average gross is around $330M on a $149M budget.
I decided to look at Total domestic gross, production budget, RT score and Metacritic scores. I am focusing on the domestic market, because other foreign markets have other priorities in their Hollywood films, and RT/Metacritic reviews have almost zero mindshare in places like China.
I have also put the Marvel/DC superhero stuff in its own group, because we wouldn't want superhero fatigue to drown out any trends. Since a lot of these films are still in theatres, I went ahead and estimated final grosses. Wonder Woman and Cars 3 are the only two that I could see being off by more than $10M from what I have listed below, so these numbers should be pretty close.
2017 Big Budget (>$75M) Releases - No Marvel/DC Superhero films
Code:
[B]TITLE DOM GROSS ($ MIL) Budget ($ MIL) RT Score[/B] Metacritic
Beauty and the Beast (2017) 505 160 71 65
The Fate of the Furious 227 250 66 56
The Boss Baby 175 125 51 50
Kong: Skull Island 168 185 76 62
Pirates of the Caribbean 5 165 230 29 39
Cars 3 155 175 66 59
Power Rangers (2017) 85 100 46 44
The Mummy (2017) 80 125 15 34
Alien: Covenant 74 97 71 65
The Great Wall 45 150 35 42
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage 45 85 43 42
Ghost in the Shell (2017) 41 110 45 52
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 39 175 28 41
Monster Trucks 33 125 32 41
The Promise (2017) 8 90 50 49
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
[b]AVERAGE 123 145 48 49[/b]- Beauty and the Beast bumped up the Domestic Gross average by $25M. Without it, the average big budget (non-superhero) film made $91M on a $144M budget.
2017 Marvel/DC Superhero Film Releases
Code:
[B]TITLE DOM GROSS ($ MIL) Budget ($ MIL) RT Score [/B]Metacritic
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 390 200 81 67
Wonder Woman 375 150 92 76
Logan 226 97 93 77
The LEGO Batman Movie 176 80 90 75
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
[B]AVERAGE 292 132 89 74[/B]- If you want to just look at the live action films, the average gross is around $330M on a $149M budget.
broncobuster
Banned
LEGO Batman and GotG2 performed worse then I expected. Logan and especially Wonder Woman are way higher.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Well, we're certainly not going to be getting *less* superhero movies, that's for sure!
Amazing analysis as always. Bomb after bomb from big-budget non CBM...
Loving the correlation between highly rated films and box office success this year...
Obliterator
Member
I honestly think Rotten Tomatoes is a "mainstream" thing now.
I hear total movie casuals talk about it now and it's brought up often on the radio / TV when discussing a new movies release.
I'm not saying it's the end all be all by Box Office standard but I do think it's become known well enough to the public that it is having some impact
I hear total movie casuals talk about it now and it's brought up often on the radio / TV when discussing a new movies release.
I'm not saying it's the end all be all by Box Office standard but I do think it's become known well enough to the public that it is having some impact
Here's the same group of films divided by RT's Fresh/Rotten boundary, instead of superhero/non-superhero. It also matches up with an over/under 55 score on Metacritic.
2017 Big Budget Films Rated "FRESH" on Rotten Tomatoes
Code:
[B]TITLE DOM GROSS ($ MIL) Budget ($ MIL) RT Score Metacritic[/B]
Beauty and the Beast (2017) 505 160 71 65
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 390 200 81 67
Wonder Woman 375 150 92 76
The Fate of the Furious 227 250 66 56
Logan 226 97 93 77
The LEGO Batman Movie 176 80 90 75
Kong: Skull Island 168 185 76 62
Cars 3 155 175 66 59
Alien: Covenant 74 97 71 65
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
[B]AVERAGE 255 155 78 67[/B]2017 Big Budget Films Rated "ROTTEN" on Rotten Tomatoes
Code:
[B]TITLE DOM GROSS ($ MIL) Budget ($ MIL) RT Score Metacritic[/B]
The Boss Baby 175 125 51 50
Pirates of the Caribbean 5 165 230 29 39
Power Rangers (2017) 85 100 46 44
The Mummy (2017) 80 125 15 34
The Great Wall 45 150 35 42
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage 45 85 43 42
Ghost in the Shell (2017) 41 110 45 52
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 39 175 28 41
Monster Trucks 33 125 32 41
The Promise (2017) 8 90 50 49
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
[B]AVERAGE 72 132 37 43[/B]The Boss Baby and Power Rangers were the only two rotten films (out of 10) to have domestic grosses that exceeded 75% of their production budget. All of the fresh films hit that mark.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Lego Batman is a shame, really, especially the worldwide numbers. I wonder why that happened and if we'll still get a sequel.
GotG2 had an excellent domestic run. Some of you just had expectations that were way too high.
Overseas was more on the "just OK" side of things. The first film had exchange rates working in its favor, which makes things look closer than they were in local currencies. I would have to check, but I think the local currency bump for GOTG2 was around 20%. However, the first film was already on the low side of things for an MCU film overseas, so there was definitely more room to grow. I was thinking $500M earlier in the year. We got $470M.
Overseas was more on the "just OK" side of things. The first film had exchange rates working in its favor, which makes things look closer than they were in local currencies. I would have to check, but I think the local currency bump for GOTG2 was around 20%. However, the first film was already on the low side of things for an MCU film overseas, so there was definitely more room to grow. I was thinking $500M earlier in the year. We got $470M.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
I feel like the RT score reflects just how the WoM will be, but doesn't directly influence people in most cases.
Obliterator
Member
Idk I think there's a direct correlation that only really started picking up this year.
It's a wide enough thing now that the place I work has a section for movies with a big Rotten Tomatoes sign that says "These films all rated Fresh"
I don't think it's making movies bomb or take off in and of itself but I think it is playing a role currently
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Nah man. I doubt that people care about reviews. Reviews feel also more important in the US. No one cares about it outside is my guess.
Wonder Woman is still weak in Europe and that had great reviews.
Obliterator
Member
I think people are starting to care domestically for sure.
I agree about international though. It's pretty clear movie reviews don't mean much in markets like China
I wouldn't mind Transformers becoming a yearly franchise honestly.
This is great! That's what I expected it would get.
I do.
They can't pump out a decent one in the 2+ years time between films. They won't bother to do one better in less time.
No way.
100% chance. I'd say the over/under is $750M right now.
PLEASE make this analysis into a thread.
A few months back, I gathered domestic grosses and budgets for every wide release in 2015 and 2016 (over 260 films in total). I was going to do a followup post with fresh/rotten breakdowns for all $75M+ films since the start of 2015 (about 90 films total). I suppose that I could make it a thread instead. I'm not sure how many people care beyond those in here though.
Your analysis is very interesting, and I think it would have appeal beyond those in an individual week's thread.
LordOfLore
Banned
Yeah, I think more people would like to see this.
Bobby mentioned it on twitter, but I'm really hoping Lord/Miller get asked to jump on The Flash again.
The individual threads have the same 14-15 posters each week, with some people popping in to either shit on a movie or shit on xaos titles. I definitely think there'd be appeal for something like this!
broncobuster
Banned
Who knows, but at least Warners liked Chris McKay enough to give him a live action Nightwing.
I think if DCEU continues to do big business we could see a LEGO Justice League.
I'll concede my expectations were too high for GOTG2. I felt if there'd be a non-RDJ MCU cracking $1B, that'd be it.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Every studio except for Disney must be trying to get them to sign on to one of their franchises right now. And I bet WB is first in line.
LFMartins86
Member
They never pumped a decent one, it's not a question of time, it's the question of the lack of quality of everyone involved.
Yup. That's what I'm saying.
Alex_Mexico
Member
I hope WW surpasses at least Suicide Squad and Man of Steel!
This one
Culmination of dwindling interest for years on the domestic front. It peaked with the 2nd film and has been going downhill under the current creative group.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Boss baby was also the kind of film that was guaranteed to review badly regardless of quality. My kids dragged me to it and it was honestly a decent movie. Which helps explain why it did better than that score would suggest.
Remeber when GAF was sure the first film would be the bomb of the year?
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Weird. First, Ron Howard accepts to finish somebody else's movie for some reason and now this. I guess nobody can escape franchise films these days.
Excellent. More Brad Pitt vs Zombies.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
With the official opening day number, it's time to revise the 5-day projections.
It's... kind of surreal putting up numbers that low for a TF film, but here we are. It's possible the actual numbers vary pretty wildly, since there's a lot of different factors happening, but I don't see the film getting close to $70M for the 5-day.
So far, no Transformers film has missed a 2.0 multiplier off a 5-day cume, with Revenge of the Fallen coming closest at 2.01. TF5 faces a ton of competition in the following weeks, though, and WOM seems like it may be the weakest of the bunch, so it may end up holding worse than Revenge. If the next few days follow my predictions, I think the domestic total will end be $105-120M.
In other news, Wonder Woman's Wednesday number is $3.85M, down 39% from last week. It seems that, even with TF5 underperforming, it has still taken a bite out of it. Since last weekend had Father's Day, Wonder Woman is very likely looking at a drop around 45%.
edit: Cars 3's Wednesday was $4.3M, off 22% from Cars 2's comparable day. It's looking to have a second weekend in the low 20's.
Code:
Pre: $5.5M
Wed: $10.1M/$15.6M
Thu: $7.2M -28.71%/-53.85%
Fri: $10.9M +51.39%
Sat $13.2M +21.10%
Sun: $9.9M -25.00%
3-day: $34.0M
5-day: $56.8MIt's... kind of surreal putting up numbers that low for a TF film, but here we are. It's possible the actual numbers vary pretty wildly, since there's a lot of different factors happening, but I don't see the film getting close to $70M for the 5-day.
So far, no Transformers film has missed a 2.0 multiplier off a 5-day cume, with Revenge of the Fallen coming closest at 2.01. TF5 faces a ton of competition in the following weeks, though, and WOM seems like it may be the weakest of the bunch, so it may end up holding worse than Revenge. If the next few days follow my predictions, I think the domestic total will end be $105-120M.
In other news, Wonder Woman's Wednesday number is $3.85M, down 39% from last week. It seems that, even with TF5 underperforming, it has still taken a bite out of it. Since last weekend had Father's Day, Wonder Woman is very likely looking at a drop around 45%.
edit: Cars 3's Wednesday was $4.3M, off 22% from Cars 2's comparable day. It's looking to have a second weekend in the low 20's.
CaviarMeths
Member
I know he's been in talks since forever, but it still feels like a weird choice. Fincher is never one to keep a budget conservative, a problem you'd think producers would want to avoid after the first movie barely squeaked by with a win after such a messy shoot.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
Not to sound like a broken record, but we (europeans) don't really care as much about superheroes in general, aside from the already cultivated ones (saturday morning cartoons, basically). Wonder Woman never had much (screen) presence until BvS re-introduced her. It was always going to be heavily domestic biased. The other DC movies are also domestic biased, but not quite as much.
In terms of why Marvel isn't domestic biased, I think the Marvel movies are less held back by being 'superhero' movies because they're mostly just action movies first.