Wonder Woman is almost 50/50 right now between domestic and international. The previous 3 DCEU movies were all bigger earners internationally.
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BO Wkd 0616-1817 - Queen is dethroned, all hail McQueen, ScarJo roughed up
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Wonder Woman is almost 50/50 right now between domestic and international. The previous 3 DCEU movies were all bigger earners internationally.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
You should note the percentage split, not the amounts. I often mention 'foreign multiplier' which is basically just 1 on DC movies, and other domestic biased franchises. Percentages rounded up for reading convenience.
MoS: 44-56, BvS: 38-62, WW: 50-50, Suicide Squad: 44-56
Star Wars TFA: 45-55, Rogue One: 50-50
Transformers and Pirates, and many other franchise have gone from 40-60 back in 2005-ish to 20-80 in their more recent outings.
Transformers: Age of Extinction: 22-78 !!
Pirates: On Stranger Tides: 23-77
Pirates: Dead Man Tell No Tales: 24-76
The point here is that these splits are fairly predictable (TF5 will be 20-80 ish too), and they tell you something about audiences, the absolutes don't matter, because a stinker will affect audiences the same way everywhere. I know that sounds weird, because we seem to think that China likes garbage movies, but that's not the case. The Mummy learned this the hard way.
But now for Marvel's split:
Civil War: 35-65
Avengers 1: 41-59 (2012)
Avengers 2 Age of Ultron: 33-67 (2015)
Iron Man 3: 34-66 (2013)
GotG2 (which is kind of Star Wars-y): 45-55 (2017)
Doctor Strange (2016): 34-66
THOR 2: THE DARK WORLD: 32-68 (2013)
As you can now tell, the Marvel split is consistently 34-66, not nearly 50-50 like DC or Star Wars.
This is what I was referring to by the difference in their split, as these movies appeal to different audiences. And I believe that is due to being more action oriented, since the 'stupid, stupid action' movies are 20-80 split.
The year of release doesn't even influence it much with Marvel. Their foreign multiplayer is therefore consistently 2.
edit:
Btw, considering you have an Underworld avatar, we can also play this game with that franchise.
Underworld (2003) : 54-46
Underworld Evolution (2006): 56-44
Underworld Rise of the Lycans (2009): 50-50
Underworld Awakering (2012): 39-61
Underworld Blood Wars (2017): 37-63
With the interesting part being, that much like Pirates and Transformers before this year, these movies made a very predictable total of 100 million per movie on a 30 million budget.
For Pirates and TF, that number was 1 billion on a 200-300 budget. But you can tell the split and therefore where the money is coming from in terms of numbers, changes over time, despite totals remaining the same.
Interestingly, the latest Underworld made 80 million, which is only a 20% drop from 'franchise average', whereas Pirates dropped a full 33% versus its average on totals. However, Awakenings is an odd exception since it made 160m total, so the drop from that one to Blood Wars is a whopping 50%, if you ignored that the others made 90-110 each.
But the real take-away here is that it went from 50-50 split to 40-60, indicating the increased cash flow from foreign versus domestic.
^^^
Foreign audiences have a slower fade when it comes to franchise popularity, plus the overseas to domestic split has increased in general this past decade.
So Transformers 5 numbers are coming in from more markets now. Australia's opening might end up being less than half of Age of Extinction's according to Rth on the BOT boards. South Korea's gross will also be about half of AoE based on the first couple of days. In Russia, T5 is only down about 25% in local currency, but since the ruble tanked since 2014, it will be down about 60% in USD.
Those three territories earned $113M for Age of Extinction. So potentially $60M gone right there.
China's opening weekend should be good, but user reviews are terrible so far.
Foreign audiences have a slower fade when it comes to franchise popularity, plus the overseas to domestic split has increased in general this past decade.
So Transformers 5 numbers are coming in from more markets now. Australia's opening might end up being less than half of Age of Extinction's according to Rth on the BOT boards. South Korea's gross will also be about half of AoE based on the first couple of days. In Russia, T5 is only down about 25% in local currency, but since the ruble tanked since 2014, it will be down about 60% in USD.
Those three territories earned $113M for Age of Extinction. So potentially $60M gone right there.
China's opening weekend should be good, but user reviews are terrible so far.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
It'll still turn a profit, but the planned sequels are in rough shape already. ESPECIALLY that Bumblebee spin-off that's supposedly about to start filming.
OrangeAtlas
Member
If anything I'd say the Bumblebbe spin-off is in the safest position. A new creative team could do wonders for this franchise's perception.
I think that Bay actually retires from the franchise this time. He's looking at a drop of around a third from the last two entries worldwide. Even if this film still makes decent money, why risk scoring a true bomb with a sixth film?
He probably should have stopped with the third film (which seemed to be decently received by audiences, if not critics), but who can say no to the kind of cash he was being offered?
Maybe we can finally get Bad Boys 3 now. I'm sure that Martin Lawrence is up for more cash.
He probably should have stopped with the third film (which seemed to be decently received by audiences, if not critics), but who can say no to the kind of cash he was being offered?
Maybe we can finally get Bad Boys 3 now. I'm sure that Martin Lawrence is up for more cash.
hodayathink
Member
Is that still on the schedule for next year (I mean, it's obviously not hitting it, but that was when it was scheduled, right)? I remember getting Carnahan to direct it, but I don't remember reading that he left.
OrangeAtlas
Member
Bad Boys For Life is still scheduled for a November 2018 release date and is without a director since Joe Carnahan left a few months back. Bay's non-Transformers movies for the last few years have been pretty good, so maybe it'll be a good fit.
Scheduling conflicts.
Though the Bad Boys IV that they preemptively announced for 2019 has all but disappeared.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Yeeeesh. That seems like a big drop.
Quick comparison:
Dark of the Moon, last TF to open on a Wednesday did, $37.7m and then $21.5m its debut Wed/Thurs.
First two days of TLK are 42% and 36% of that, respectively. So yeah, comparatively that's a bigger drop. Probably an early sign of both a poor debut and poor legs.
Dark of the Moon, last TF to open on a Wednesday did, $37.7m and then $21.5m its debut Wed/Thurs.
First two days of TLK are 42% and 36% of that, respectively. So yeah, comparatively that's a bigger drop. Probably an early sign of both a poor debut and poor legs.
Obliterator
Member
Ouch.
Yeah I'm inclined to agree, I think Bay is actually gonna leave the franchise after this. Even if its not a "force out" I think he's going to voluntarily part ways.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Now just imagine a Guillermo Del Toro Transformers movie. Think of how fun it would be.
And also that it would never release because of delays and him moving to another project. Then the years of sadness and thinking about what could have been.
And also that it would never release because of delays and him moving to another project. Then the years of sadness and thinking about what could have been.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
If TF5 really does drop 40-50% in most countries, Michael Bay is definitely not returning even if he wants to. It doesn't matter how much money it makes in China, Paramount isn't going to be happy with him killing the franchise everywhere else.
In all seriousness though, Bay stepping away from Transformers would be great news for everyone including Bay fans. They're fun but there's really no reason why he needed to make FIVE of them at the expense of other more interesting shit he could have done instead. Like Bad Boys 3. *cough*
clay_ghost
Member
So you are responsible for all the giveaways from everywhere. SAFRA alone is giving away 1500 tickets lol.
I never bothered to enter any of them.
Bad Boys 2... is 750 films in one and God help me every single one of them works for me.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
The Bumblebee movie could be a nice way to soft reboot the franchise but it's probably too late to retool that movie.
Nah. I need my giant mechanical trash fire with massive robot balls every two years and only Bay can deliver on that. Carnahan would have been perfect for Bad Boys 3.
Nah. I need my giant mechanical trash fire with massive robot balls every two years and only Bay can deliver on that. Carnahan would have been perfect for Bad Boys 3.
CaviarMeths
Member
Maybe I should get around to watching Transformers. To this day, Armageddon is the only Bay film I've ever seen.
Was the same with Fast & Furious too, started watching the series for the first time this year. Gave up after 5 though. Everyone said that's the "good" one and I did a seinfeld_leaving.gif after the dragging the safe by chain through the streets of Rio scene.
Was the same with Fast & Furious too, started watching the series for the first time this year. Gave up after 5 though. Everyone said that's the "good" one and I did a seinfeld_leaving.gif after the dragging the safe by chain through the streets of Rio scene.
The Rock my man. Watch 'The Rock'. That will always be the movie that will make me forgive Bay. Even right now after 20 years of Bay's bullshit, I want to say "FUCK Michael Bay and the hundreds millions he makes off his bullshit". But I don't. Why? Because he made The Rock. That movie is infinitely watchable, moreso than it probably deserves.
LordOfLore
Banned
Just heard from a friend who've seen Homecoming that
Movie is now 2/10.
Shocker never gets his mask.
Nemesis121
Member
My friend ask me if i wanted to see the Last Knight, he got 4 tickets from T-mobile $4 Tuesday, I told him straight no...I am getting to see the movie for FREE and i refuse to waste my time..
AdventureRacing
Member
Even if it did somehow turn a profit the reception of he movie would surely put an end to any chances of a sequel.
Ehhh yes there is a chance but the movie was a loss for Fox according to their end of quarter reports. The problem with Assassin's Creed was that the movie come out during a crowded season and then January was stack with a lot of movie releases so the movie never held on to a lot of screens. I believe Assassin's did well on the VOD market.
The only way that movie gets a sequel is if they are able to set up a movie franchise around it honestly.
Yesterday was one of the hottest days in Germany so far this year and it ended with some bad storms around prime time. Not surprised it is down so much.
I wonder if in some way, Bay is relieved. He gets to ride off into the sunset without an unmitigated bomb.
This still has to be an ego blow.
His first 4 films were #5, #4, #2, and #1 worldwide in their respective years. This one could feasibly miss the top 10 depending on how Thor does and if we get any surprises. Domestically, we're looking at top 20 at best. Maybe not even that. Age of Extinction was already a low point at #7 domestically in 2014. The first three films were all in the top 3 for their year.
Yeah, if you had told me 4-5 years ago that a Transformers movie would miss top 10-15 domestic I would have laughed. Time to close this franchise down for a bit.
One thing I'd be interested in is how action films with long run times are perceived in the last 2-3 years (both in terms of RT score and $$$). With how short our attention spans have become, I could see anything 2:30 and over being a turn off.
I was talking about this with my brother yesterday. Dunkirk was confirmed to be 1h 47m, and it almost seems like a selling point these days. Few films need to be 150+ min long.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I don't think it's so much an attention span thing as a 2:30+ blockbusters tend to feel totally bloated and could easily lose twenty minutes.
Sounds like a new analysis from you to me.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Saw this on the elevator screen today:
Seems like there's more fun to be had reading bad reviews than actually watching this.
Chicago Sun-Times said:
Seems like there's more fun to be had reading bad reviews than actually watching this.
Oh thank fuck Nolan is going back to tight run times. Dude is best when he has to focus.
Fuck Interstellar was a load of toss.
There's the bounce back I was expecting from WW.
I never would have thought WW would outgross Transformers, but here we are. Wow.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
BAH! Wasn't there a set pic of it being there though?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Now Sony's got your money for the sequel.
The only Michael Bay movies I like are The Rock and the bridge chase scene from Bad Boys II.
6 and 7 are amazing as well. You're really missing out.
Del Toro or Lin for Transformers! Pacific Rim and Fast 5/6 are all infinitely better than any Bay Transformers movie.
6 and 7 are amazing as well. You're really missing out.
Del Toro or Lin for Transformers! Pacific Rim and Fast 5/6 are all infinitely better than any Bay Transformers movie.
Hope the movie bombs now tbh
Obliterator
Member
Yeah it's looking very possible WW outgrosses Transformers. That's absolutely crazy and awesome all at once.
It's funny because people keep mentioning the super hero bubble popping and yet they seem to only be becoming stronger and safer bets in terms of action flicks.
It's funny because people keep mentioning the super hero bubble popping and yet they seem to only be becoming stronger and safer bets in terms of action flicks.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Del Toro would be the better pick of the two for Transformers. As for Lin, in a short amount of time he achieved what Bay has been trying, and failing, to do for his whole career. The Fast movies now are what a well tuned Bay movie should be like.
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
Huh, I saw that said from a guy on Reddit who claims to have seen it too. I'm starting to think he's legit.
Bummer, though.