Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
- Start date
- Status
CharmingCharlie
Member
Part of the problem remain has is that no one actually believes them. Every time some one on the remain side talks doom and gloom most just roll their eyes. This is all down to Cameron, not six months ago David Cameron was happily broadcasting that he would actively campaign to leave the EU if he didn't get his precious deal.
So whenever someone talks about huge economic damage/increased tax/massive austerity/Nuclear war if we leave the EU most think "hang on a minute Cammy boy was all for leaving 6 months ago".
At the end of the day I still am not convinced leave will win. It is one thing to tell a pollster you are voting to leave, it is quite another to actually vote to leave. I do think it is going to be close though which is a GOOD thing. A close result may actually have some impact on the fuckwits at brussels and they might just actually start looking at where the EU is going wrong ........ we can but hope.
So whenever someone talks about huge economic damage/increased tax/massive austerity/Nuclear war if we leave the EU most think "hang on a minute Cammy boy was all for leaving 6 months ago".
At the end of the day I still am not convinced leave will win. It is one thing to tell a pollster you are voting to leave, it is quite another to actually vote to leave. I do think it is going to be close though which is a GOOD thing. A close result may actually have some impact on the fuckwits at brussels and they might just actually start looking at where the EU is going wrong ........ we can but hope.
ferrasvansen
Member
It won't happen immediately, but if we leave I expect it will harden the case for independence. One of the major sticking points during the indy ref debate was Scotland staying in the EU, that will be removed if we leave and likely lead in the end to a much higher yes vote, it's the main reason I have switched from pro union to pro independence.
I think that will take a lot longer than any side would be comfortable with. First Sturgeon would have to hold a referendum, and it would only make sense to do so once the conditions of the Brexit have themselves been understood.
Scotland can't legally secede, and I dont think that is an option the SNP would consider. Bearing in mind that any referendum has to have the agreement of Westminster before it becomes legal, and that Westminster has made it absolutely clear that a referendum won't happen anytime soon again, I think we'd looking at a number of options:
1) if we vote to leave, and the voting shows that Scotland was in favour of staying, the SNp make rejoicing Europe a core piece of their policy platform and stand on that
2) presuming that a new general election is called fairly soon, they will win another massive mandate based on that
3) Westminster will say no to a further referendum after the election
4) the SNp can then either play the long game, complain very loudly and continue to push for a further referendum at every stage. They would likely continue to win massive majorities at every election, and unless labour reclaimed Scotland it's likely that we'd see a referendum sometime in the next 10 years where Scotland votes to leave
5) they could alternative hold an immediate referendum using the Scottish civil service levers they have, although that would be iffy to say the least, and use that to push for independence directly.
I don't see any circumstances where a Brexit vote results in an independent Scotland anytime soon - it just legally wouldn't happen unless Westminster agrees to it, and that's absolutely never happening. Seceding isn't on the table at all - an outright Declaration of Independence would be catastrophic for Scotland, and it's incredibly unlikely the EU would recognise Scottland as an independent country anyway.
Immediately i would say nil, oil is low and the government will be busy working out stuff following the vote. Remember there is a windows to get stuff done in before the UK is official "out" i think it was 2 years ? So No new vote for Scotland before that is over with.
Also bear in mind this vote is a vote taken by the entire country as Great Britain not England Scotland Wales and NI
I wouldn't put it all on media. Most politicians all over Europe were happy to blame everything on EU for so many years and not take responsibility for their failures.
CharmingCharlie
Member
Yeah that aint happening any time soon as others have said. There has been plenty of talk about what will Scotland do if England votes to leave the EU but I think the more interesting question is "How pissed off are the English going to be if Scotland keeps the UK in the EU".
Right now it is looking like it is going to be a very very close contest. At this point it is looking like Wales and England might just by a small margin vote to leave the EU. However if the Scotland vote swings it in remains favour that is not going to do down well with the rest of the UK.
If I get dragged out of Europe by little Englanders you can be certain I'll be pissed.
A sentiment that will be shared all over Scotland.
QuicheFontaine
Member
What if Gibraltar keeps the UK in the EU?
Wrestlemania
Banned
Leave are actually lying about how things are now whereas remain are playing up the potential negative consequences, which could very well be true but we can't actually say for sure. I don't think those two things are "as bad as each other".
CharmingCharlie
Member
I was under the impression most of Scotland was already pissed off about "little Englanders" so no change there then.
Pfft a rock, we will quarry it to hell for it's delicious erm rockness. I don't know much about Gibraltar (other than it is a rock and it appeared in a James Bond film) but isn't it like only 30,000 people and a dog there ? That isn't really going to have much of an effect either way. Besides the Gibraltarians hate the Spanish so I imagine they are a shoe in to vote leave.
They absolutely aren't as bad as each other, I definitely agree there. I posted earlier, but unless someone has found otherwise I cannot think of anything in our electoral process going back to 1992 (my first election where I paid attention) on the scale of the 350m figure. Its been rebuked constantly in a way that nothing else I can think of has been, and yet it continues to be used by Leave and the press all the time.
ferrasvansen
Member
Actually no Gibraltar is a very pro EU area and are terrified at what will happen if they lose EU single market access. There were some good articles on TV about it last week.
QuicheFontaine
Member
No, quite the opposite. I can only find one poll, but it's pretty clear: 88% Remain, only 8% Leave.
So yeah, only 30,000 people there but if 99% of them turn up to vote (like they do in their other referendums on e.g. remaining part of the UK)...and the voting is as lopsided as that poll...and it's as close as it looks like it's going to be....then they could...could...just make the difference!
I'm only half joking here.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Gibraltar Fears Isolation, Economic Ruin If Britain Leaves EU
Gibraltar’s Spanish neighboring towns fear Brexit: ‘it would be a disaster’
Gibraltar is utterly terrified. So far it's been enjoying all the benefits of being a de facto tax haven within the EU. If Brexit happens, they are irredeemably fucked, politically, economically and strategically.
Countless British expats living in Spain are also scared shitless.
Edit: Don't read the comments.
In your opinion they aren't, in my opinion they are. I am still voting remain, but not because of anything the remain camp have said.
Bob Geldof needs to go back home lol
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/743044532019859456/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Wheres good old nelson when you need him
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/743044532019859456/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Wheres good old nelson when you need him
People that live in Gibralta have to travel into Spain for a lot of shopping trips. They'd be fucked without free movement.
Why won't 30,000 people have an effect on a vote that is so close? If not, you may as well stay home. Your vote clearly isn't going to make a difference.
PJV3
Member
Somebody call Bono and Sting, shit is getting serious.
Bob Geldof needs to go back home lol
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/743044532019859456/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Wheres good old nelson when you need him
What did he really expect?
Probably did expect that, now the fishermen look like thugs and disrupted what they were trying to get accross. Misson succesful most likely.
Twist: Greater London secedes from England. Neo-Luxembourg here we come!
Acidote
Member
Twist: The City of London secedes from London.
Or millionaire acting like a millionaire as poor fishermen struggle. I get he wants to protest etc, but it looks kind of out of touch with how the fishermen feel. I don't agree with their actions, but can see why they got pissed off.
Well on the side you have a guy rolling in millions and on the other you have fishermen, people who quite frankly have had the short end of the stick for years compared to everyone else.
You cant get more out of touch than that thus his presence only pisses them off does nothing to get the IN campaign message across at all. All hes doing is attacking Nigel Farrage while he is at it.
Daffy Duck
Member
Osborne needs to fuck off.
What a cunt.
What a cunt.
Another farcical moment in an embarrassing campaign. I've always found general elections depressing, the AV and Scottish independence referenda were even worse but this has to be the most idiotic campaign I can remember. I can't think of a single politician whom I haven't lost respect.
Same owners ?
ferrasvansen
Member
Doesn't surprise me at all, everything connected to Farage seems dodgy, can't understand why folk like him, seems to me like a dodgy used car salesman then again maybe that's what people are attracted to the dodgy aspect, personally I wouldn't trust any of the leading lights on either side, but Farage is a whole new level of sleaziness.
PJV3
Member
Jimbob Smalls
Banned
Somebody used a boat before? When your hire a boat is it a thing that you check everything it has been used for in its history?
Phantast2k
Member
@itvnews
Bob Geldof and Nigel Farage trade insults over the Thames as the #EURef fishing debate reaches boiling point (video)
#NoFishermansFriend
@britainelects
Scotland / On having a second independence referendum in the event of a vote for Brexit:
Support: 47%
Oppose: 45%
(via Ipsos Mori)
itshappening.gif
Bob Geldof and Nigel Farage trade insults over the Thames as the #EURef fishing debate reaches boiling point (video)
#NoFishermansFriend
@britainelects
Scotland / On having a second independence referendum in the event of a vote for Brexit:
Support: 47%
Oppose: 45%
(via Ipsos Mori)
itshappening.gif
ferrasvansen
Member
Doesn't surprise me and when it happens I expect the move towards independence will gather momentum, especially with Boris Johnson expected to be in charge along with Gove, those two combined would be the death knell of pro union support in Scotland.
PJV3
Member
Actually it's not very clear reading it again, they talk about the skippers ripping off millions and at the end mention something about a large company owning it previously.
Fuck knows, I thought they were saying the same crew were involved, I'm not sure now.
Still it's poetic that it is involved in another scam.
Psychotext
Member
Sounds about right.
A lot of fishermen would like to ignore scientific opinion and overfish seas resulting in a complete end of their industry
ClosingADoor
Member
The politicians are wrong. The economists are wrong. And damn, the doctors are wrong too!
LONDON (Reuters) - JP Morgan said on Wednesday that the lead across a range of opinion polls for campaigners seeking to get Britain out of the European Union has widened after the bank removed a hoax poll from its analysis.
"Leave" now had a 1.4 percentage-point lead over "Remain", analysts said in a research note.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-jpmorgan-idUSKCN0Z11CG
"Leave" now had a 1.4 percentage-point lead over "Remain", analysts said in a research note.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-jpmorgan-idUSKCN0Z11CG
CyclopsRock
Member
Gib isn't really a tax haven. In "finance" terms it's very open (far more so than most British Overseas Territories, with who's bad brush they get unfairly tarnished with) and whilst their income tax rates are much lower (and certain business tax rates - ie Gambling, which is why so many Gambling company head quarters are there) they're far from non-existent. It's not like Dubai or somewhere.
Anyway, as said, they are definitely voting remain. Those old enough to remember the Pre-EU days will remember that they had to get everything shipped in via the port. Even the airport was a tricky one because the rock plays havok with the air flow and coming in from over the sea (which you have to do if you're avoiding Spanish air space, which they also had to do) is dangerous. Possible, certainly, but dangerous. The population of Gib expands by about 60% every single day through a combination of Spanish and British ex-pats who live in Spain coming in for work. So it would be terrible for Gib to have those people cut off (and the Spanish are routinely accused of breaking EU rules by their actions on the border already, though it's cooled down since its 'flashpoint' in 2014) but it would be pretty terrible for La Linea and the rest of Cadiz/Malaga, where Gib is actually one of the few booming areas around (and a supplier of some really high-quality jobs, as well as plenty of low-skill touristy ones). It's a lose-lose for everyone if the border shut again, though I don't doubt it would shut, on Spain's side at least.
Anyway, as said, they are definitely voting remain. Those old enough to remember the Pre-EU days will remember that they had to get everything shipped in via the port. Even the airport was a tricky one because the rock plays havok with the air flow and coming in from over the sea (which you have to do if you're avoiding Spanish air space, which they also had to do) is dangerous. Possible, certainly, but dangerous. The population of Gib expands by about 60% every single day through a combination of Spanish and British ex-pats who live in Spain coming in for work. So it would be terrible for Gib to have those people cut off (and the Spanish are routinely accused of breaking EU rules by their actions on the border already, though it's cooled down since its 'flashpoint' in 2014) but it would be pretty terrible for La Linea and the rest of Cadiz/Malaga, where Gib is actually one of the few booming areas around (and a supplier of some really high-quality jobs, as well as plenty of low-skill touristy ones). It's a lose-lose for everyone if the border shut again, though I don't doubt it would shut, on Spain's side at least.
so neck and neck then, and with margin of error it is fucking close
PJV3
Member
it was reported that the SNP would want to see at least a 60% in favour for independence for at least 5 years before they would call one, as they know a second defeat would be the death knell of independance
- Status