Can Halo 3 Outsell Super Mario Bros. 3?

AstroLad said:
What many people are forgetting is the SMB3 appealed only to little kids and adults with a Peter Pan complex. Halo 3 appeals to everyone, be it kids or teens to your average adult. Though the install base is currently less, the target market is much broader so it's verily a possibility.

So should we start a "I blame Halo" fad now?

But really, it doesn't appeal to everyone like you said.
 
jman2050 said:
GTA4 and Pokemon say no.

GTA? Really? I think the series has been spread a bit too thin in the past few years, and it's already been proven that people won't pick up a platform just for GTA (LCS and VCS, the latter of which wasn't a commercial hit at all, showed this for the PSP).

Halo 3? Will be one of the biggest selling games this gen, but no where near Mario 3's levels. Biggest selling game this gen I think is gonna be either Galaxy or Brawl, but even they won't come near Mario 3's levels.
 
Even if you go by Halo 2 attachment rate, say every 1 out of 3 Xbox 360 owners has Halo 3, Xbox 360 would have to reach a base of 55million+ to beat the numbers. That won't happen in the next 2-3 years.
 
AstroLad said:
What many people are forgetting is the SMB3 appealed only to little kids and adults with a Peter Pan complex. Halo 3 appeals to everyone, be it kids or teens to your average adult. Though the install base is currently less, the target market is much broader so it's verily a possibility.

Sarcasm? It sure made me laugh.
 
Kaako said:
I just don't see it happening either.
Halo 3 needs sell well internationally for that to happen. This includes Japan.

yup. A DS or Wii game might knock Mario 3 from the throne, but a FPS? LOL no.
 
djtiesto said:
GTA? Really? I think the series has been spread a bit too thin in the past few years, and it's already been proven that people won't pick up a platform just for GTA (LCS and VCS, the latter of which wasn't a commercial hit at all, showed this for the PSP).

Halo 3? Will be one of the biggest selling games this gen, but no where near Mario 3's levels. Biggest selling game this gen I think is gonna be either Galaxy or Brawl, but even they won't come near Mario 3's levels.
The GTA stories games are more like missing packs than new games though. If they did sell hardware something would be wrong with people.
 
I think GTA4 is really going to shatter records. It's the only game I hear non-gamers talk about; hell, they've even heard of the delays and such.
 
Well, it sold 1.7 million on it's first day right? Or was that it's first hour? Let's assume that those were all sold in the first three hours or so, because it'd take a while to make it through the lines.

Assuming it maintains that rate of sales, Halo 3 has already sold 35 million copies.
 
Due to the unique and pioneering audio mix using frequencies inaudible to humanity, it's also appealing to canines and small mammals. Kudos to MS for tapping this previously untouched market, there's got to be at least 10 million unit sales in that segment alone.
 
No way this is going to happen. not when the game is $60+ that plays on a console thats also expensive. Be surprised if it evens sells half of that 18 million
 
Son of Godzilla said:
Well, it sold 1.7 million on it's first day right? Or was that it's first hour? Let's assume that those were all sold in the first three hours or so, because it'd take a while to make it through the lines.

Assuming it maintains that rate of sales, Halo 3 has already sold 35 million copies.

That would be a bad assumption my friend ;)
 
AstroLad said:
What many people are forgetting is the SMB3 appealed only to little kids and adults with a Peter Pan complex. Halo 3 appeals to everyone, be it kids or teens to your average adult. Though the install base is currently less, the target market is much broader so it's verily a possibility.

Halo 3 does not appeal to everyone.

Halo 3 will not become the best selling game ever. Its 10 millions more than Halo 2. Halo 3 is not expanding its audience, its still catering to the same people.


Well, it sold 1.7 million on it's first day right? Or was that it's first hour? Let's assume that those were all sold in the first three hours or so, because it'd take a while to make it through the lines.

Assuming it maintains that rate of sales, Halo 3 has already sold 35 million copies.

WTF is going on here?!
 
There has been a lot of ridiculous threads of late, welcome said thread. So you want all the bragging rights, huh.

Some of you need to take a giant step back and realize just how much Microsoft hook, line, and sinker you've swallowed.
 
You need international success for that. The only contenders IMO are:

1. Pokemon (very likely)
2. Nintendogs/cats/cows (it helped explode the DS userbase)
3. Gran Turismo (thank you Europe, but this is a severe reach now)
4. GTA (sold less WW than Gran Turismo, and I expect 4 to do worse than 3)

GTA4 and GT5 are long-shots IMO. GTA4 only b/c I don't think it'll do as well as the previous games. I really expect there to be some burnout. It'll be a blockbuster fo sho, but not to the tune of Vice City IMO. GT5 is tied to the PS3, so it's almost DOA. Nintendogs helped start EASTER, IIRC. The userbase is much bigger now than then. A new game in the franchise might out-Pokemon Pokemon. And that's the last option. If Pokemon ever became really cool again, the DS userbase could generate epic sales. PEACE.
 
inthezone said:
Halo 3 does not appeal to everyone.

Halo 3 will not become the best selling game ever. Its 10 millions more than Halo 2. Halo 3 is not expanding its audience, its still catering to the same people.

Hmmm, WRONG. How many people above the age of 30 can you name that bought SMB3 primarily for their selves? I can name at least a dozen for Halo 3.

Some people in here are really smoking the Nintendo Kool-Aid (mushrooms?).
 
Pimpwerx said:
You need international success for that. The only contenders IMO are:

1. Pokemon (very likely)
2. Nintendogs/cats/cows (it helped explode the DS userbase)
3. Gran Turismo (thank you Europe, but this is a severe reach now)
4. GTA (sold less WW than Gran Turismo, and I expect 4 to do worse than 3)

GTA4 and GT5 are long-shots IMO. GTA4 only b/c I don't think it'll do as well as the previous games. I really expect there to be some burnout. It'll be a blockbuster fo sho, but not to the tune of Vice City IMO. GT5 is tied to the PS3, so it's almost DOA. Nintendogs helped start EASTER, IIRC. The userbase is much bigger now than then. A new game in the franchise might out-Pokemon Pokemon. And that's the last option. If Pokemon ever became really cool again, the DS userbase could generate epic sales. PEACE.

The way this New Gen has been going I'd say you can probably scratch 3 & 4 off the list.
 
AstroLad said:
Hmmm, WRONG. How many people above the age of 30 can you name that bought SMB3 primarily for their selves? I can name at least a dozen for Halo 3.

Some people in here are really smoking the Nintendo Kool-Aid (mushrooms?).
...How many 30 year olds did you know in the early 90s. People who are 30 and buying games today did so when they were 15 and 20.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
What I'm really wondering now is whether Halo 3 or Super Mario Galaxy will be the bigger seller worldwide by the end of the year.

That depends on if Nintendo is willing to push it as much as MS pushed Halo. If so then easily. If not then no.

I personally think they won't spend 10 mil on advertising, but i could be wrong...
 
This is possibly the most delusional opinion I've read on NeoGAF ever. PS3 has a better chance of catching the 360's installed base than this.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
What I'm really wondering now is whether Halo 3 or Super Mario Galaxy will be the bigger seller worldwide by the end of the year.
I think Halo3, but Galaxy (or Smash, or both) is bound to outsell on the long run...
 
fact: it's going to sell an ungodly amount of units.

but 18 million? the odds of that game, in itself, doubling the amount of 360's purchased. that would be unreal. you never know, though. only time will tell.
 
Threi said:
That depends on if Nintendo is willing to push it as much as MS pushed Halo. If so then easily. If not then no.

I personally think they won't spend 10 mil on advertising, but i could be wrong...
According to Wikipedia, SMS is to about 5.5 million and Halo 2 8 million. They both had monster legs, so I'm not sure what a comparison of their first months/holiday would be like. However, due to userbase differences it makes sense that Halo 3 will start with less, and SMG will start with more.


For similar reasons I'd also consider Super Smash Bros. Brawl, but not being there for the month of November is a giant handicap.
 
that ~18 million SMB3 were sold to a large userbase of tens of millions of Famicoms and NESs.

so there's almost no way Halo 3 can match SMB3 let alone outsell it.
 
Pimpwerx said:
1. Pokemon (very likely)
I should track down my post from 6 or 7 months ago that predicted that Pokemon D/P would outsell Halo 3. It'll happen. Pokemon hit 9 million nearly 3 months ago. And it has a good shot at being the best selling title of the year.


Threi said:
That depends on if Nintendo is willing to push it as much as MS pushed Halo. If so then easily. If not then no.
Super Mario Sunshine sold 5.5 million. sUpeR MaRio GalAxY won't outsell Halo 3, even with the Wii overtaking the 360's installed base.
Admittedly, Super Mario 64 sold 12 million, but no matter how good Galaxy is, it isn't groundbreaking like SM64 was, and it isn't a launch title (thereby one of only 2 games available for the N64 at the time).
 
yes

halo3 will also outsell toilet paper.

it will also save the national debt

it will provide health care to U.S. americans

it will bring order to Iraq

believe
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
However, due to userbase differences it makes sense that Halo 3 will start with less, and SMG will start with more.
How so? They're pretty well even right now, and I'd imagine Halo would be more front-loaded than Mario.

Unless you're referring to Halo 3 vs. Halo 2 and SMG vs. SMS. Then I'm less confused.
 
Alcibiades said:
Halo 3 hasn't even managed Halo 2 numbers, so unless XBox 360 somehow becomes the next PS2 in terms of userbase size, it won't happen.
You expect Halo 3 to out-sell Halo 2 in 2 days?
 
Slavik81 said:
Super Mario Sunshine sold 5.5 million. sUpeR MaRio GalAxY won't outsell Halo 3, even with the Wii overtaking the 360's installed base.
If I calculate the change in final GCN:Xbox ratio (ignoring the factor of how big they were when the games actually released) to an estimate of what the Wii:X360 ratio will be at the end of the year, and apply the difference to SMS/H2 sales, they get very very close. Which is why I think it will be interesting to see which one actually pulls ahead.
botticus said:
Unless you're referring to Halo 3 vs. Halo 2 and SMG vs. SMS. Then I'm less confused.
Yes, that's what I meant.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
If I calculate the change in final GCN:Xbox ratio (ignoring the factor of how big they were when the games actually released) to an estimate of what the Wii:X360 ratio will be at the end of the year, and apply the difference to SMS/H2 sales....


...1.21 Jigawatts!
 
cilonen said:
...1.21 Jigawatts!
If I could somehow... harness the power of the biggest day in entertainment history... channel it into the fluxbox capacitor...
60937ab1338e331eb6b29dcf3bf1a111.jpg

Damn!
 
Striker said:
You expect Halo 3 to out-sell Halo 2 in 2 days?

Well how about Halo3 outselling the two first days of Halo2's sales?

There's a reason why the record was reported in gross and not units.

quick math:

Halo 3 $150mill total gross / $60 unit price = 2.5mill

Halo2 $125mill total gross / $50 unit price = 2.5mill

It's like claiming the highest box-office gross without taking the ticket inflation into account, apart from PR bragging rights it not worth much.
 
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