Can Halo 3 Outsell Super Mario Bros. 3?

The real question is whether it will outsell Super Mario Galaxy and Wii Fit. Just out of (unrelated) curiosity, how much has New Super Mario Bros. done worldwide?
 
djtiesto said:
I'm still shocked how many people are downplaying SSBB, look at the facts:

-It's the sequel to a game that sold ~5 million on an underperforming platform. The Wii is on track to leave Cube (and N64) in the dust
-Comes out a bit more over a year
-Online play for the first time in the series
-Has a fanbase in all 3 major markets, not just the US
-Third-party characters introduced for the first time in the series

WiiFit may eventually sell more, but SSBB will be the best selling "core" game this gen.
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It was a launch title though. Twilight Princess will end up doing ~5 million, but I doubt it would end up anything near that if it traded release dates with Brawl.
 
Nintendogs is nearly there (14m iirc). NSMB has chance, as does Pokemon DP and (if we count bundling) Wii Sports. Outside that, nothing (that we know of yet) is going to crack 18m this gen imo.

I think Halo 3 has a good chance at reaching 10m though. So do GTA4 (combined), Mario Galaxy, Wii Play and a few DS games (Mario Kart, Brain Training, Animal Crossing, etc, etc).
 
No, but Wiifit probably will, and this place will be shut down shortly after that I think.

Or perhaps we should start calling it NeoWiiFit allready.
 
ShockingAlberto said:
Are we counting one SKU of Halo 3 or every re-release, PC version, GOTY edition, etc.?
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Well, are we counting just one SKU of SMB3 or adding in the GBA, VC and All-Stars versions? :D
 
Halo 3 needs first to beat NSMB and Nintendogs (And I know that some halo fanboys won't appreciate the fact that it will never beat Nintendogs so they'll spin it about handheld games not counting :lol )

Cubsfan23 said:
Halo 3 will end up being top 10 all time in sales
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I think it needs to hit the magical 15m number. Microsoft needs first to ship 15m working 360s
 
Polari said:
It was a launch title though. Twilight Princess will end up doing ~5 million, but I doubt it would end up anything near that if it traded release dates with Brawl.
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SSBM wasn't a launch game, in any region. It came out in Japan about 2 months after the GameCube launch, in North America about 2 weeks after the launch, and about 3 weeks after launch in Europe.

zsidane, I have no doubt that Halo 3 will beat each of the Nintendogs games. Unless you are talking about the combined sales of all 4 Nintendos games (which I find annoying, although they are more similar than Pokemon games).
 
No way, I doubt Halo 3 will even outsell the GTA games (Which if i remember right were last gens top 3 selling games)






OP is going to edit OP post with the running tally, right?
 
TJ Spyke said:
zsidane, I have no doubt that Halo 3 will beat each of the Nintendogs games. Unless you are talking about the combined sales of all 4 Nintendos games (which I find annoying, although they are more similar than Pokemon games).
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I think that you'll have to deal with the combined sales. It's really the same game...
 
No. What are you smokin'?
Halo 2 had a similarly huge release yet it slammed at 8 million sold, which is rather unimpressive when compared to GTA games usual 14 million plus sales.
Xbox360 is likely to end up with a similar overall userbase as the original if slightly higher with the difference that this time around the system will have a lot of other quality games to choose from as well. Halo ONLY appeals in the United States. You would need to have at least 20 million systems in the US alone sold for what you suggest to happen with most of those owners picking up ther game as well. I don't see it happening.
GTA with a huge fanbase across the world has a much better shot at that.
 
DrForester said:
No way, I doubt Halo 3 will even outsell the GTA games (Which if i remember right were last gens top 3 selling games)






OP is going to edit OP post with the running tally, right?
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I think that GT3 A-spec managed to do better than GTA III if I'm not mistaken.
 
TJ Spyke said:
SSBM wasn't a launch game, in any region. It came out in Japan about 2 months after the GameCube launch, in North America about 2 weeks after the launch, and about 3 weeks after launch in Europe.

zsidane, I have no doubt that Halo 3 will beat each of the Nintendogs games. Unless you are talking about the combined sales of all 4 Nintendos games (which I find annoying, although they are more similar than Pokemon games).
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Launch window then, whatever.
 
Amir0x said:
about the same chance as Jesus returning next week

so pretty likely
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Actually, Team Fortress 2 doesn't release until later next month.
Multiplatformness is blowing my mind.

I'd be willing to bet it doesn't outsell Halo, though...
 
I'd actually be very surprised if Halo 3 were in the top 5 of this gen worldwide (including the DS/PSP). On the top of my head, I can see Pokemon DP, New Super Mario Bros., Nintendogs, Brain Age and Brain Age 2 beating (or remaining ahead of) Halo 3.
 
Cubsfan23 said:
Halo 3 will end up being top 10 all time in sales

but Mario Galaxy will end up selling more worldwide. It will have 5 million plus in 3 territories.
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Highly unlikely

edit: I meant highly unlikely that Halo 3 will crack the top 10
 
Normally, I would say it's pretty far-fetched that it would do such numbers, but Peter Molineux, EGM feat. Dan Hsu, XBL marketplace ads, offensive to veterans TV ads (it's edgy), Luke Smith during his days at 1up, desire to finish the fight, explosive increase in the number of 13 year olds world wide, unboxing videos, 3 days of free XBL, no XBLA game releases this week (would have cannibalized sales) and the reading of the Halo 3 press kit on GFW, have convinced me it will make those numbers eventually.
 
Duderz said:
Needs to be repeated.

Halo 3 will likely be the number 1 selling game this generation, but it won't pull SMB3 numbers.
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I dont think so. There's a chance that it wont even be in the top 5-10, let alone #1 of this generation.


If you include handhelds, no way in HELL.
 
No it won't. And I guess we can all conclude that Halo 3 is a failure.

Number of crappy threads on this forum to troll Halo one way or the other increases by the second.
 
plufim said:
Halo 3 is SO good that every single xbox360 owner will buy two copies.
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Do you mean three? Cause you guys all get the second copy free cause the first one is scratched to shit, right?

No chance this game will come close to Mario 3, and no fucking way it should ever deserve to. Nothing does.
 
QuickKick89 said:
Since Halo 3 will likely never be packed in with the 360 (due to its M rating), it's only going to find itself sold seperately.So what do you think?
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really? Gears of War got bundled with the 360 in Australia, and I'd wager Hao 3 will get the same treatment down here come christmas.
 
Leondexter said:
That may be possible (worldwide it'll never hit top 10, even), but I think it's still unlikely. I'll have to look at some US numbers at home, though, before I'd give odds.
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anyone have the #'s??
for best selling game in the US?? I would guess Halo 3 has a good chance on winning that one
 
Here is the top three on some of the Platform according to wikipedia.

They count both Pokémon games as one so I'll put the forth one on there to see what number three would be without Pokémon.

PS2
1. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (13 million)
2. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)
3. Grand Theft Auto III/Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (11 million)

Xbox
1. Halo 2 (9.2 million)
2. Halo: Combat Evolved (5 million)
3. Project Gotham Racing (2.5 million)

Gamecube
1. Super Smash Bros. Melee (6 million)
2. Super Mario Sunshine (5.5 million)
3. Mario Kart: Double Dash!! (3.5 million)

Nintendo DS
1. Nintendogs (14.79 million)
2. New Super Mario Bros. (10.52 million)
3. Pokémon Diamond and Pearl (10 million)
4. (3.) Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day! (8.61 million)

PC
1. The Sims (16 million)
2. The Sims 2 (13 million)
3. StarCraft (9.5 million)

All Time
1. Pokémon Red, Blue and Green (20.08 million)
2. (1.) Super Mario Bros. 3 (18 million)
3. (2.) The Sims (16 million)
4. (3.) Nintendogs (14.79 million)

Franchise
1. Mario (193 million)
2. Pokémon (155 million)
3. The Sims (90 million)
 
mr stroke said:
anyone have the #'s??
for best selling game in the US?? I would guess Halo 3 has a good chance on winning that one
Click to expand...

Turns out the ones I have are horribly outdated. And they don't include older consoles--I have no idea how many of Super Mario Bros. 3's 18 million were sold in the US. But as of mid-2004, the #1 and #2 best-sellers in the US (from the PS1/PS2 gens) were GTA: Vice City (PS2) and Super Mario 64 (N64), both at 5.9 million.

Presumably Vice City went on to sell plenty more, I'd say it almost certainly passed 7 million eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 8.

In any case, Halo 3 will have to break 6 million minimum in US sales to even be a contender. It will probably make it to 6m, but not this year, maybe not even next year. It'll be a long haul, and even longer if it needs to tack on another million or two.

Edit: as of October 2005, Vice City was at 6.7 million in US sales: 800k higher than mid-2004. Over half of those 800k were Nov/Dec 2004 (Jan-Oct '05 combined were only ~200k), so it probably hit 7 million by Christmas 2005.
 
Polari said:
Launch window then, whatever.
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The first SSB sold near 5 million even though it came pretty far into the N64's life. So, simplifying things for the sake of the argument, let's say the extra ~1.1 million SSBM buyers picked it up because it was a launch window game, and that really the other ~4.9 were repeat customers.

That would get SSBB to 4.9 million, and the rest of the slack could be picked up by online play, being on a more well-received system than either (late life) N64 or GC, and having multiple third-party characters who might each have been able to individually repeat the Link in Soul Calibur effect.
 
Leondexter said:
Turns out the ones I have are horribly outdated. And they don't include older consoles--I have no idea how many of Super Mario Bros. 3's 18 million were sold in the US. But as of mid-2004, the #1 and #2 best-sellers in the US (from the PS1/PS2 gens) were GTA: Vice City (PS2) and Super Mario 64 (N64), both at 5.9 million.

Presumably Vice City went on to sell plenty more, I'd say it almost certainly passed 7 million eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 8.

In any case, Halo 3 will have to break 6 million minimum in US sales to even be a contender. It will probably make it to 6m, but not this year, maybe not even next year. It'll be a long haul, and even longer if it needs to tack on another million or two.
Click to expand...


Xbox
1. Halo 2 (9.2 million)
2. Halo: Combat Evolved (5 million)
3. Project Gotham Racing (2.5 million)


but how many of those Halo 2 sales were from the US?? 7 out of the 9.2?
if Halo 3 does out sell Halo 2 in the US then maybe the biggest selling game of all time in the US?
 
zsidane said:
Halo 3 needs first to beat NSMB and Nintendogs (And I know that some halo fanboys won't appreciate the fact that it will never beat Nintendogs so they'll spin it about handheld games not counting :lol )


I think it needs to hit the magical 15m number. Microsoft needs first to ship 15m working 360s
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well done.:lol
 
mr stroke said:
Xbox
1. Halo 2 (9.2 million)
2. Halo: Combat Evolved (5 million)
3. Project Gotham Racing (2.5 million)


but how many of those Halo 2 sales were from the US?? 7 out of the 9.2?
if Halo 3 does out sell Halo 2 in the US then maybe the biggest selling game of all time in the US?
Click to expand...

Halo 2 hit 5 million in US sales in Dec 2005. It might have made 6, but it certainly didn't make 7.
 
Taurus said:
Not a chance.
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I think there's more than a chance. Mario Galaxy may not perform as well as what people expect. The industry, especially at least Nintendo, is changing rapidly. Traditional games on the Wii, while still selling well, aren't doing the pants exploding numbers people have been expecting of a console that's taken the world by storm. I have a feeling the less traditional games are going to be the ones to really take off in this generation for Wii. Such as Wii Fit.

Of course I could be wrong. I'm not stupid enough to bet against a Mario game.
 
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