gutter_trash
Banned
She crossed the aisle and defcted to join Paul Martin's Liberals back then.
She broke Mackay's heart, LOL
she went back to work for daddy
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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She broke Mackay's heart, LOL
she went back to work for daddy
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That's why it'd be funny! lol
gutter_trash
Banned
and she's hot
BladeWorker
Member
I don't think Belinda Stronach is in a position to run a federal party, let alone a government. Too much public baggage.
A short aside: I shed a tear every time someone uses "he's/she's hot" to describe prospective political leaders. As if that makes one whit of difference to how capable they are of running a government. In my ideal world, we don't give two hoots whether Justin Trudeau has wavy tufts of bouncing brown hair, Eve Adams spends a half hour on her makeup every morning, or Gilles Duceppe has piercing blue eyes: we vote for they who have the vision, competencies, and strength of character to lead well.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, since we're talking about looks, I would say that it's a bit sad that the Americans were able to elect a black President before the "home of multiculturalism" anyway.
As for your bigger point, elections are a popularity contest. It's just like your high school student council elections, but now funded by your tax dollars.
It's almost 100% that it'll be Jason Kenney. He practically engineered the Conservative majority.
BladeWorker
Member
Well, since we're talking about looks, I would say that it's a bit sad that the Americans were able to elect a black President before the "home of multiculturalism" anyway.
As for your bigger point, elections are a popularity contest. It's just like your high school student council elections, but now funded by your tax dollars.
To a point. But, 1 - In any election there's a fair bit of marketing involved that often has little to do with the actual person attempting to win, and more to do with the policies of the opponents and the direction of the country. Two, in the not to distant past we've had leaders who polled lower than their parties when they were first elected. McGuinty comes to mind.
In short, popularity opens the door, but there's more to it than screaming fans if you want to walk through it.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Well, there's also the fact that most people vote for the brand rather than the person I suppose.
But looking at the leadership conventions, it's more about networking and how many people you know than any actual depth. It's why Trudeau is basically being crowned by the Liberals, why Ignatieff basically had no trouble, why Dion was able to pilfer a win away from Ignatieff, and well... why Martin was able to become defacto leader after he ousted Chretien.
I don't think there has been a "fair" leadership race in the last 15 years that I've been following politics anyway. Maybe when Jack took over the NDP? But I don't really remember much about that race at all.
I suppose the one good thing about not having a directly elected executive is that it really doesn't become a pure popularity contest.
matthewwhatever
Member
Huh...after looking around the Internet, it seems you're right.
Well, now I believe we're screwed as a nation.
gutter_trash
Banned
Jason Kenney used the Liberal playbook in Toronto suburbs to cort ethnic voters the same way Liberals have always done in the past.
Kudos to the Conservatives for opening up their tent.
Something that the PQ provincially has always failed to do unless they were immigrants from former French colonies.
Kudos to the Conservatives for opening up their tent.
Something that the PQ provincially has always failed to do unless they were immigrants from former French colonies.
Would be amazing if the country's first gay PM was a Conservative.
matthewwhatever
Member
Is Kenney gay? I know there were jokes about it when he first revealed that he was still a virgin however many years ago that was, but it's never been like John Baird or Jim Watson, where everyone knows about it but it's an open secret.
gutter_trash
Banned
I thought it was Baird who was gay
Harper is just doing exactly what Chretien did. Take advantage of a split opposition to 'win' full and complete power while getting 36-40% of the vote. The complete rot of a Liberal party that couldn't even hold on to its Southern Ontario powerbase helped of course.
The worst thing the Liberals ever did to themselves was start believing their own 'natural governing party' propaganda.
The worst thing the Liberals ever did to themselves was start believing their own 'natural governing party' propaganda.
matthewwhatever
Member
No, the worst thing the Liberals did was having Paul Martin go on TV to rant about how his party was responsible for stealing millions of taxpayer dollars. Chretien weathered potentially far bigger scandals (anyone remember the HRSDC Billion Dollar Boondoggle?) by just saying they weren't that big a deal.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
the liberals were in power for around 70 years in the 20th century; vote splitting on the right impacted the 93, 97, and 2000 elections. social credit never swung an or really caused any significant impact at all.
let's not pretend that the liberal party of canada hasn't enjoyed an unusually high success rate since the country was founded. this has been studied a little bit, although not exhaustively, and there's still no perfect argument as to why they did.
gutter_trash
Banned
at what cost? under Harper we are bungling past surpluses and now run deficits, going mono-industrial focusing only on oil-sands and ignoring the rest. Ect.
Canada fared well under Liberal rule and we have seen a vast improvement on the quality of life with many changes done to improve Canada as whole.
Harper wanted to go to Iraq, rember that. Thank God for Jean.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPVOhva_cwI
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awesome moment of Jean Chretien on US (Chenney-Rumsefeld) claims about presence of WMDs in Iraq. Being clear about that there is no proof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX6XMIldkRU
Jason Kenney is 1000% more likeable than any of his peers.
Well I'm just talking about Harper's success with campaigns and elections and comparing that to Chretien.
Not commenting on Harper's policies or to the Liberal party's entire history of success, just their success under Chretien. Chretien took advantage of right wing splits to get his majorities and now Harper has won his minorities and finally his majority by taking advantage of left wing splits. Hell Harper got more votes for his majority than Chretien did on one of his. Getting full power with less than 37% of the vote isn't exactly a mark of enthusiasm for the party or the leader for either the Chretien Libs or the Harper Cons. It is total success under the rules of FPTP though.
The Liberal grassroots rotted away though over the past 17 years or so and they lost their traditional power bases as well. You can't deny that. I'd lay the blame for that on arrogance.
I mean take a look at Toronto. Chretien and Martin did jack shit for Toronto and took it for granted even though it was rock solid loyal. That sort of neglect eventually had an impact. The same can be said for the immigrant communities.
Not commenting on Harper's policies or to the Liberal party's entire history of success, just their success under Chretien. Chretien took advantage of right wing splits to get his majorities and now Harper has won his minorities and finally his majority by taking advantage of left wing splits. Hell Harper got more votes for his majority than Chretien did on one of his. Getting full power with less than 37% of the vote isn't exactly a mark of enthusiasm for the party or the leader for either the Chretien Libs or the Harper Cons. It is total success under the rules of FPTP though.
The Liberal grassroots rotted away though over the past 17 years or so and they lost their traditional power bases as well. You can't deny that. I'd lay the blame for that on arrogance.
I mean take a look at Toronto. Chretien and Martin did jack shit for Toronto and took it for granted even though it was rock solid loyal. That sort of neglect eventually had an impact. The same can be said for the immigrant communities.
I respectfully disagree with this.
A government run by Jason Kenney would be a massive disaster.
What I'd like is for Trudeau to reach out to Western Canada. Alberta will still hate his name due to his father but he should try to heal old wounds. The Liberal Party needs to have a national strategy if they want to ever get back into power. Writing off Alberta as being 100% Conservative every election is a mistake.
Dion went too far with his plans to protect the environment. Trudeau can reduce the environment as a priority to not scare off the people who think it will cost jobs but still be more protective of the environment than Harper is.
Dion went too far with his plans to protect the environment. Trudeau can reduce the environment as a priority to not scare off the people who think it will cost jobs but still be more protective of the environment than Harper is.
Could you name a cabinet minister as likeable as him?
Edmonton used to vote Liberal.
Ehh that's overstating things. When the Conservative vote was split it happened for a while but went away the moment they merged back. Otherwise you have to go back to like the 40s to find winners who weren't PC.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
The problem with historical studies is that the same groups of people weren't allowed to vote in all elections in Canadian history. Women, for one.
Speaking of which, Borden basically used vote splitting to crush the Liberals during the time of women's suffrage in Canada, so it's not like it's a new tactic. Divide and conquer works for a reason.
killer rin
Member
Well, I got the email and completed my vote registration. Think I might end up going for either Justin or Marc
BigJonsson
Member
The Toronto Star has a Forum poll showing the Liberals winning a minority in Ontario if there is an election now.......but these polls are changing every week lol
pr0cs
Member
it's a very very safe bet, and anyone with the name of Trudeau no matter how charismatic will likely be shunned.
Jason Kenney? Likable?
Sapiens
Member
That's a very fair assessment, but I'd like to think some of our Edmontonian MPs (ie. Anne Macllellan) got voted in by her own merits :/
BladeWorker
Member
Well that's what happens when you rely on robopolls.
Coronations = winning the popular vote? News to me. The dynamics of this leadership race and the logistics involved are fucking bananas and while Trudeau may not be in my top 3, a victory by him wouldn't be a coronation by any stretch of the imagination. If anyone wants, I can host a google hangout to explain the new voting dynamics of this race versus previous ones because it's nothing like anything we've had in this country before.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
His victory is basically fait accompli though unless it turns out he has a love child or something. It's like when the Liberals wasted money by pretending to have a leadership race when Martin took over.
That's true. Back when I was less of a lefty socialist, I actually looked into the process for voting at the Liberal conversion during the Dion/Ignatieff race. Once I realized that it was a party delegate system, that pretty much killed any interest I had in joining the party.
Winning a vote does not mean anyone else ever had a chance. The 'dynamics' of the race don't really matter, the moment he entered no one expected anyone else to win. And that's exactly how it's going to play out.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
It must be nice to have a name to fall back behind anyway.
Although I think that says more about the Liberal field more than anything else. At least the Democrats had Obama-Clinton slug it out even though people just assumed that Clinton was the natural candidate.
It must be nice to have a name to fall back behind anyway.
Although I think that says more about the Liberal field more than anything else. At least the Democrats had Obama-Clinton slug it out even though people just assumed that Clinton was the natural candidate.
Yeah, there are a lot of factors involved in why it's the case, but pretending that it's not is just silly. If Rae had run as well it might have been a real race.
But mostly, I think the Liberals just burned through all their good leadership candidates in the last 10 years. And like planets, those candidates had cleared their local orbit so well the gap between them and the next rung down of the party was too far to bring up any real talent now.
The NDP leadership fight was really full of violent agreement, but even it had at least two possible winners.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Yeah, the NDP race was at least a real contest, even though there were clear frontrunners and no real spoilers.
I mean, I have no idea what the process is now for the Liberals, but I have to assume that Trudeau will take it on the first ballot/vote.
Funny enough, on The National yesterday, the panel seemed to be playing up the fact that a lot of the new Liberals to join the party are supporters of the party and not just Trudeau bandwagoners. If nothing else, making a show out of crowning Trudeau is giving them good press at least.
It's as much a coronation as was Harper's 2011 victory, nobody worth their salt thought anyone other than him was going to be PM. Not to mention, you're operating under this weird assumption that the race is OMOV. It doesn't matter if Trudeau has 5000 supporters in Scarborough since the best he can do is win 100 points per riding depending on the percentage of the vote he gets in that riding (1% = 1 point). Those 5000+ Scarborough votes are as useful as 250 in Saskatoon, or 500 in Calgary. Consequently, Trudeau getting 50-60% in the Scarborough ridings may not be as useful as Findlay scoring in 90% elsewhere. So really, when the system lets 50 people in Yellowknife have equal or more weight than 1000 in Toronto-Centre, I think the idea of electoral dynamics being useless becomes rather ludicrous.
I don't know why you think that, I didn't say anything that should indicate anything of the sort.. I'm well aware it's a riding-weighted vote. Trudeau is still obviously going to win because no one else has a pig's prayer at breakfast.
BigJonsson
Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/if-election-were-held-today-say-hello-to-prime-minister-trudeau-poll/article9556095/
We should hold an election today
We should hold an election today
His ridings aren't well distributed enough to win on a first ballot, Joyce will crush him in tory-Ontario ridings and Findlay's representation is strong out west. Source: Liberalist.
Man, why am I even bothering. Despite all evidence to the contrary to the very definition of coronation- it's not like anybody's going to give a shit.
Trudeau would likely lose, just like Dion and Ignatieff did- both of whom prematurely tried to push for an election because of polls like these that gave us an edge over the tories. Trudeau nor any of the candidates will ever be prime minister, and unless we enter an unholy alliance with the NDP or tories, they'll likely never be a cabinet minister. Don't look forward to a Liberal government well into the 2020s.
BigJonsson
Member
Well aren't you a Debbie Downer
Thankfully, no one is able to push for an election this time
Thankfully, no one is able to push for an election this time
oneils
Member
I thought it was Baird, Kenney, and Moore who were all gay. My impression is that the first gay PM will be from the Conservative Party of Canada.
Well aren't you a Debbie Downer
Thankfully, no one is able to push for an election this time
Talking to tories it's starting to sound like 2014. If any cardcarrying grits want to know why we're fucked in the long run, feel free to PM me.
BigJonsson
Member
I think you're using a very narrow definition of coronation to try to weasel out of admitting the field is extraordinarily weak for liberal leadership candidates. By coronation I meant that his victory is a fait accompli, probably on the first or second ballot. Given the nature of any kind of multiple candidate multiple elimination vote, winning on the second ballot is still an extremely easy win. If you have two or more strong candidates, it should go to 4 or more ballots. The Liberals just don't have that. Everyone who could have made it that got out of the way, or were wasted on previous election losses.
And if Justin loses in 2015? He'll be out just like every other Liberal leader on the losing end of an election. No lessons have been learned and only a massive dose of party kool-aid can keep that fact from sight.
oneils
Member
Why do Liberal leaders leave after a single loss? Conservative leaders just keep trying and build on the name recognition they got from past attempts.
BigJonsson
Member
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