Support NeoGAF

[diaspora]

I think you're using a very narrow definition of coronation

You've effectively defined a coronation to be winning the popular vote in a totally open field. The inability for competitors to succeed doesn't mean he's fucking coronated. Getting 150,000 supporters out of nearly 300,000 isn't the same as winning a delegate vote with 2100 delegates while being interim leader as Ignatieff did. Even so much as drawing a comparison is nonsense.

And if Justin loses in 2015? He'll be out just like every other Liberal leader on the losing end of an election. No lessons have been learned and only a massive dose of party kool-aid can keep that fact from sight.

When Justin/ Martha/ Joyce lose in 2014/2015, they won't be tossed out largely because nobody who was around for Martin, Dion, and Ignatieff are in the party anymore, and the changes to campaign finance by Harper have effectively castrated centralized control as well. People like Murphy, Rossi, and Apps are hasbeens, get with the program.

 

[maharg]

You've effectively defined a coronation to be winning the popular vote in a totally open field. The inability for competitors to succeed doesn't mean he's fucking coronated. Getting 150,000 supporters out of nearly 300,000 isn't the same as winning a delegate vote with 2100 delegates while being interim leader as Ignatieff did. Even so much as drawing a comparison is nonsense.

No, I've defined a coronation as everyone knowing he's going to win the moment he enters the race, and being entirely right about that fact. I've made that clear several times. It could be a vote of everyone in the world for all I care, or a vote of 10 people in Nunavut, if the outcome is clear before the vote begins guess what I call that.

 

[diaspora]

No, I've defined a coronation as everyone knowing he's going to win the moment he enters the race, and being entirely right about that fact. I've made that clear several times. It could be a vote of everyone in the world for all I care, or a vote of 10 people in Nunavut, if the outcome is clear before the vote begins guess what I call that.

So you've defined a coronation as something completely different from what a coronation is.

Why do Liberal leaders leave after a single loss? Conservative leaders just keep trying and build on the name recognition they got from past attempts.

Former party insiders (who now happen to be wannabes) had no foresight or political acumen for the 21st century. Every time I visit the Toronto and GTA crew, I'm grateful that they're turfed.

aw come on, why not share it with the rest of us too?

Numbers I can't really throw around.

 

[BigJonsson]

It's not a coronation

 

[maharg]

So you've defined a coronation as something completely different from what a coronation is.

In my opinion you have, but then you speak about the party in the first person so I'm not surprised by the gymnastics.

 

[diaspora]

It's not a coronation

Exactly. Winning 1900 out of 2100 delegate votes without actually having any competition while being interim leader- that's a coronation. Riding popularity to a victory out of 300,000 electors is not.

In my opinion you have, but then you speak about the party in the first person so I'm not surprised by the gymnastics.

You equated a guy winning the popular vote with 300,000 voters to a guy winning against no opponents while interim leader among less than 2100 delegates. Gymnastics? Really?

 

[SRG01]

What BJ and diaspora are saying is completely true. The newspapers have been saying all this stuff about coronation, but the real power still lies with the delegates. It doesn't matter how many people support Trudeau; what really matters is where those votes turn up.

 

[diaspora]

What BJ and diaspora are saying is completely true. The newspapers have been saying all this stuff about coronation, but the real power still lies with the delegates. It doesn't matter how many people support Trudeau; what really matters is where those votes turn up.

And if they turn up. I keep bringing up Martha and Joyce because we've all seen what Stephen Carter can do with Nenshi and Redford, not to mention Joyce has those leadnow/ fairvotecanada types at her back for their GOTV.

 

[BigJonsson]

No delegates, it's one member/supporter one vote on a ranked ballot

 

[SRG01]

No delegates, it's one member/supporter one vote on a ranked ballot

When did they change that?

 

[diaspora]

When did they change that?

The cutoff date to register to vote was March 3rd though, I think I posted a link a page or two ago, but we implemented an open vote at the January 2012 convention which was boss as fuck. Nobody in the press expected Mike to win.

 

[maharg]

Exactly. Winning 1900 out of 2100 delegate votes without actually having any competition while being interim leader- that's a coronation. Riding popularity to a victory out of 300,000 electors is not.



You equated a guy winning the popular vote with 300,000 voters to a guy winning against no opponents while interim leader among less than 2100 delegates. Gymnastics? Really?

So I'm going to apologize specifically about the "first person" comment, even though you didn't even mention it. I'm frustrated at my internet connection being shitty and I'm taking it out on this thread, so I'm sorry about that.

But I'm not comparing it to Ignatief in any way. I don't care how Ignatief became leader. I'm calling it a coronation all on its very own.

 

[diaspora]

But I'm not comparing it to Ignatief in any way. I don't care how Ignatief became leader. I'm calling it a coronation all on its very own.

It's necessary to compare Ignatieff, the person who was crowned as leader because the party engineered it so he would be the only person who could get it versus the other guy who won because he's more popular nationally than everyone else.

I'm frustrated at my internet connection being shitty

 

[firehawk12]

I feel like there should be a ban bet on how close the leadership race will be. lol

There is no credible alternative and I almost feel bad for anyone running because they're burning money on a losing campaign.

 

[matthewwhatever]

And if they turn up. I keep bringing up Martha and Joyce because we've all seen what Stephen Carter can do with Nenshi and Redford, not to mention Joyce has those leadnow/ fairvotecanada types at her back for their GOTV.

Those fairvotecanada types who have never won a referendum before? Yep, huge help for her.

Though I do think she'll end up doing fairly well. Not anywhere close to winning, but still a respectable finish.

And anyone who thinks the NDP leadership race was more competitive than this one is delusional. That one was Mulcair's from the moment he entered the race, no matter what Brian Topp might have tried saying right after Layton died or who Broadbent endorsed.

 

[maharg]

And anyone who thinks the NDP leadership race was more competitive than this one is delusional. That one was Mulcair's from the moment he entered the race, no matter what Brian Topp might have tried saying right after Layton died or who Broadbent endorsed.

Eh. I thought Mulcair had it from the start, but it was definitely a relatively rare opinion to hold that there was no chance Topp could pull it out. At any rate, it went to several ballots and it was relatively close numbers-wise (certainly dark horse candidates have won multiround ballots as close as this one was in the first round). This one won't be anywhere near as close.

 

[diaspora]

Those fairvotecanada types who have never won a referendum before? Yep, huge help for her.

They cover a large swath of ridings either way.

There is no credible alternative and I almost feel bad for anyone running because they're burning money on a losing campaign.

They're signing people up, I can't say that's a bad use of money.

 

[gutter_trash]

Thomas Mulcair is such a disappointment. He is like a Robert Bourassa type who bends to nationalists.

-he recruited separatist/nationalist candidates in QC for the NDP

-he wanted to challenge the Clarity Act and assert the 50+1 = victory for a Referendum

-he wanted to apply Quebec's language law BILL 101 to Federal Institituions inside Quebec.


Jesus!!!

Thank God Justin Trudeau had the balls to call out Pauline Marois's extremism.

Montreal ethnic voters are watching Mulcair's deception and will vote for Justin Trudeau back to natural Liberal governance.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Thomas Mulcair is such a disappointment. He is like a Robert Bourassa type who bends to nationalists.

-he recruited separatist/nationalist candidates in QC for the NDP

-he wanted to challenge the Clarity Act and assert the 50+1 = victory for a Referendum

-he wanted to apply Quebec's language law BILL 101 to Federal Institituions inside Quebec.


Jesus!!!

Thank God Justin Trudeau had the balls to call out Pauline Marois's extremism.

Montreal ethnic voters are watching Mulcair's deception and will vote for Justin Trudeau back to natural Liberal governance.

Oh look at that, someone saying all "ethnic voters" vote the same way. That's rather racist and bigoted.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Anyone else read Steve Paikin's column predicting/speculating that Harper will step down this summer?

On April 30, Harper will turn 54 years old --- in some respects, an ideal age to leave on top having won three consecutive elections and refashioned the country in a significant way. He's young and vigorous enough to embark on a new career.

I have no idea what the PM is going to do. But I do know he's a man who would prefer to go out on top, rather than through an election defeat. There's only one way to ensure that, and that's leave before that 2015 grand consultation with the people.

I don't see it happening...there's no one pushing him out internally, and the odds of him losing the next election are pretty slim (though I'd be very surprised if it doesn't lead to a minority government again).

 

[maharg]

Anyone else read Steve Paikin's column predicting/speculating that Harper will step down this summer?





I don't see it happening...there's no one pushing him out internally, and the odds of him losing the next election are pretty slim (though I'd be very surprised if it doesn't lead to a minority government again).

Back to a minority would be as bad as a loss for him in terms of 'going out on top'.

 

[gabbo]

Anyone else read Steve Paikin's column predicting/speculating that Harper will step down this summer?





I don't see it happening...there's no one pushing him out internally, and the odds of him losing the next election are pretty slim (though I'd be very surprised if it doesn't lead to a minority government again).

Has he been grooming a successor behind the scenes? I know people say Kenney is popular, but he's not ready for prime time, and won't be by summer.

 

[diaspora]

Wherry quotes the best part of Fingas's post.

[Joyce Murray]’s going a step further into the past, seeking to incorporate yet another layer of past (and outdated) data from the 2008 election in order to try to make her proposal palatable among supporters who apparently want to live in denial that the most recent federal election actually happened.

On Trudeau: he's a sharp guy, but you wouldn't know it from the vapid circular hope-change bullshit his campaign has been trying to feed people for months.

 

[gutter_trash]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2013/03/13/pol-marc-garneau-liberal-leadership.html

Canadian hero/ Astronaut: Marc Garneau bows out of the Liberal leadership.

As much as I respect the man, I don't think he had what it took to beat Harper in 2015.

I hope they don't select a former MP who lost his/her riding in 2011, LOL selecting one of those would solidify the party into joke status.

I hope Justin wins just for victory's sake

 

[diaspora]

Looking more like a presidential primary now.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Huh...I didn't think anyone other than Trudeau was going to win, but this part still surprised me:

Garneau said his poll, or survey, conducted last week, contacted 50,000 supporters or party members who intend to vote in the race. Six thousand replied and of those, he said, Trudeau had 72 per cent support, he had 15 per cent, Joyce Murray had 7.4 percent and Martha Hall Findlay had 5.2 percent. Garneau gave no indication of a margin of error for the survey, or any details about how the poll was done.

I was thinking it would end up being like a Joe Clark in 1998-style situation, where Trudeau just missed a first ballot win and ended up with a crushing victory on the second ballot. 72% (or more, now) on the first ballot of a wide-open race would be a pretty impressive mandate.

 

[gabbo]

Huh...I didn't think anyone other than Trudeau was going to win, but this part still surprised me:



I was thinking it would end up being like a Joe Clark in 1998-style situation, where Trudeau just missed a first ballot win and ended up with a crushing victory on the second ballot. 72% (or more, now) on the first ballot of a wide-open race would be a pretty impressive mandate.

The Conservatives are just itching to release the attack ads/define Trudeau ads with this in mind. Probably have to stop from wetting themselves in anticipation at this point.

 

[rhn94]

i just hope someone legalizes drugs, so that the US of A can take a tip, maybe legalize it itself in a few years and then hopefully all the killing in mexico will stop

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2013/03/13/pol-marc-garneau-liberal-leadership.html

Canadian hero/ Astronaut: Marc Garneau bows out of the Liberal leadership.

As much as I respect the man, I don't think he had what it took to beat Harper in 2015.

I hope they don't select a former MP who lost his/her riding in 2011, LOL selecting one of those would solidify the party into joke status.

I hope Justin wins just for victory's sake

What a joke. He was Trudeau's biggest critic just a week ago and now he's backing him? Sounds like a backdoor deal by the big guys up at the Liberal Party. As if Trudeau initially denying that he'll run for the race and then joining after succumbing to the pressure of the long-time members wasn't fishy enough. I like Trudeau and would have voted Liberal had he won and demonstrated competence but I can't support this internal corruption going on in the party.

Ughh, the NDP is pandering to the separatist and the Conservative party is run by the Reformers. I would vote Green as a protest vote but they'll never win my riding in a million years. Why does Canadian politics suck so much... -_-

 

[TimeKillr]

What a joke. He was Trudeau's biggest critic just a week ago and now he's backing him? Sounds like a backdoor deal by the big guys up at the Liberal Party. As if Trudeau initially denying that he'll run for the race and then joining after succumbing to the pressure of the long-time members wasn't fishy enough. I like Trudeau and would have voted Liberal had he won and demonstrated competence but I can't support this internal corruption going on in the party.

Ughh, the NDP is pandering to the separatist and the Conservative party is run by the Reformers. I would vote Green as a protest vote but they'll never win my riding in a million years. Why does Canadian politics suck so much... -_-

Huh, what? Where? Because they got huge traction in Quebec during the last election?

 

[maharg]

The NDP definitely aims to appeal to soft nationalists, who I don't think can exactly be called separatists except by squeezing all nuance out of the issue.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

Huh, what? Where? Because they got huge traction in Quebec during the last election?

Clarity Act and Bill 101.

And no their 2011 election results don't bother me because I voted NDP back then.

 

[SRG01]

The NDP definitely aims to appeal to soft nationalists, who I don't think can exactly be called separatists except by squeezing all nuance out of the issue.

Pretty much. Many soft-nationalists are pro-provincial rights, which would align nicely with some of the voting blocs in Alberta.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

The NDP definitely aims to appeal to soft nationalists, who I don't think can exactly be called separatists except by squeezing all nuance out of the issue.

No federalist party should support 50+1, and if you are at least shut up about it instead of turning it into topic de jour. I don't see how NDP which pretty much talks about Quebec and the interest of Quebec, while giving few remarks about the ROC are NOT pandering to separatists. Tune into Question Period whenever Dippers take the stage, and it looks like Quebec Legislature in English than Parliament Hill. It is no surprise that Liberals get more press in English than the NDP despite the Liberals being the Third Party: the NDP talks about useless crap the ROC doesn't care about. I understand that most of the party's members are representing Quebec so they'll naturally have a more Quebec-focused opinion on things, but Mulcair is pandering to separatist in broad daylight.

 

[maharg]

Representing Quebec interests does not inherently mean pandering to separatists. I disagree on 50%+1 as a principle, but that doesn't mean every position they hold is one that is shared only by people who want to remove Quebec from Canada, nor is everyone who wants more provincial self-determination a separatist.

I say all this as a strong federalist, btw. I just don't think anyone's best interests are served by this constant radicalization of the issue. If nationalist concerns aren't heard on the federal stage it'll just boil over again like it did in the 60s.

 

[Kifimbo]

What a joke. He was Trudeau's biggest critic just a week ago and now he's backing him?

To be fair, that was the weakest endorsement ever.

 

[firehawk12]

They should just call it now and just make the convention a Trudeau party.

 

[gutter_trash]

The NDP definitely aims to appeal to soft nationalists, who I don't think can exactly be called separatists except by squeezing all nuance out of the issue.

NDP stances:

-for 50+1 in a Referendum = clear majority

-they want Bill 101 (language law) to apply to Federal Institutions inside Quebec

-they recruited several separatists and soft nationalists (such as MP Claude Patry) into their party

NDP's Quebec stances go against what Montreal Federalists fight for, Montrealers want equality without question under a Just Society.

Justin is the only Federal Party Leader who called out Premier Pauline Marois for her zealous behaviour.

 

[firehawk12]

So who thinks this Penashue story has any legs? Not only did he break finance laws, the Conservative party is helping him pay back the money.

But knowing how little we care about politics in this country, I bet it'll be as quickly forgotten as all of the other mini-scandals that have plagued Canada's New Government (tm) over the last few years.

 

[BladeWorker]

So who thinks this Penashue story has any legs? Not only did he break finance laws, the Conservative party is helping him pay back the money.

But knowing how little we care about politics in this country, I bet it'll be as quickly forgotten as all of the other mini-scandals that have plagued Canada's New Government (tm) over the last few years.

No legs. Folks have already forgotten about it. The Senate stuff may have legs, because it's easy to understand "they get paid six figures for 35 days of work" or whatever the line is today.

 

[killer rin]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/story/2013/03/13/pol-marc-garneau-liberal-leadership.html

Canadian hero/ Astronaut: Marc Garneau bows out of the Liberal leadership.

As much as I respect the man, I don't think he had what it took to beat Harper in 2015.

I hope they don't select a former MP who lost his/her riding in 2011, LOL selecting one of those would solidify the party into joke status.

I hope Justin wins just for victory's sake

Kind of depressing. Marc and Justin were both neck and neck in terms of people I was going to vote for.

 

[firehawk12]

No legs. Folks have already forgotten about it. The Senate stuff may have legs, because it's easy to understand "they get paid six figures for 35 days of work" or whatever the line is today.

Not knowing anything about his riding, what are the chances that he wins his by-election?

If the NDP or the Liberals can't capitalize on this, then they really are incompetent.

 

[lacinius]

So who thinks this Penashue story has any legs? Not only did he break finance laws, the Conservative party is helping him pay back the money.

But knowing how little we care about politics in this country, I bet it'll be as quickly forgotten as all of the other mini-scandals that have plagued Canada's New Government (tm) over the last few years.

Peter Penashue campaign took in 28 ineligible contributions

Penashue insists no wrongdoing in 2011 campaign


**edit to add... so someone might ask, well why isn't anyone being prosecuted?? It's interesting, although I'm sure it's just me being cynical, but prior to 2006 when Harper was elected, Canadian Elections Act offences were handled by the Federal Prosecution Service within the Department of Justice Canada. But in December 2006 the new Federal Accountability Act brought in by Harper made some changes to how things were set up, and the Public Prosecution Service of Canada was born. Part of the mandate of this new service is to handle fraud offences under the Financial Administration Act as well as offences under the Canada Elections Act. The current Director is Brian J. Saunders and he of course was appointed by... Stephen Harper.

 

[gabbo]

Not knowing anything about his riding, what are the chances that he wins his by-election?

If the NDP or the Liberals can't capitalize on this, then they really are incompetent.

It's not going to be F35/robocall worthy, but I don't see this going away overnight.
The volunteer he threw under the bus for is someone he helped to get a government position after the election.

 

[diaspora]

As if Trudeau initially denying that he'll run for the race and then joining after succumbing to the pressure of the long-time members wasn't fishy enough.

Why is that fishy? People talked to an MP and convinced him to run. Carney was the one the former "insiders" tried to get to run, and let me tell you, their failure is a running joke in the party now.

They should just call it now and just make the convention a Trudeau party.

So a presidential primary convention?

For shits and giggles:

 

[matthewwhatever]

I'm still disappointed Carney didn't run. He was the one guy that had a shot at beating Trudeau. I'm not sure who I would've voted for in a race between the two of them.

No legs. Folks have already forgotten about it. The Senate stuff may have legs, because it's easy to understand "they get paid six figures for 35 days of work" or whatever the line is today.

It only has legs if it becomes part of a pattern, and if the other parties/the media turn it into a narrative against them. With this being the second cabinet minister to resign in the last few months, it's got the potential to be something bigger, but it needs to build for another few years. Who knows if the media/opposition/voting public has that kind of attention span.

 

[diaspora]

I'm still disappointed Carney didn't run. He was the one guy that had a shot at beating Trudeau. I'm not sure who I would've voted for in a race between the two of them.

Trudeau would have. Again emphasizing that he's not my #1 pick, but his groundgame was unmatched, and the former insiders who think the web's role in an open race as useless would have been crushed.

It only has legs if it becomes part of a pattern, and if the other parties/the media turn it into a narrative against them. With this being the second cabinet minister to resign in the last few months, it's got the potential to be something bigger, but it needs to build for another few years. Who knows if the media/opposition/voting public has that kind of attention span.

Wait what? Who was the first?

 

[firehawk12]

Peter Penashue campaign took in 28 ineligible contributions

Penashue insists no wrongdoing in 2011 campaign


**edit to add... so someone might ask, well why isn't anyone being prosecuted?? It's interesting, although I'm sure it's just me being cynical, but prior to 2006 when Harper was elected, Canadian Elections Act offences were handled by the Federal Prosecution Service within the Department of Justice Canada. But in December 2006 the new Federal Accountability Act brought in by Harper made some changes to how things were set up, and the Public Prosecution Service of Canada was born. Part of the mandate of this new service is to handle fraud offences under the Financial Administration Act as well as offences under the Canada Elections Act. The current Director is Brian J. Saunders and he of course was appointed by... Stephen Harper.

I can only imagine if this happened to a Liberal/NDP MP. lol Damn!

So a presidential primary convention?

Pretty much!

It's not going to be F35/robocall worthy, but I don't see this going away overnight.
The volunteer he threw under the bus for is someone he helped to get a government position after the election.

It's just weird that nothing has stuck so far. There's really nothing they can do to offend people at this point.

 

[gutter_trash]

Penashue won by a slim vote count in 2011, this current blemish is enough to deny him win in the next by-election.

It will be more a test between Liberals vs NDP to see who has wind in their sails to capitalize on a fallen Conservative.

 

[firehawk12]

Penashue won by a slim vote count in 2011, this current blemish is enough to deny him win in the next by-election.

It will be more a test between Liberals vs NDP to see who has wind in their sails to capitalize on a fallen Conservative.

I think it'd be hilarious if vote splitting had a hand in rescuing Penashue here.