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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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L

lacinius

Member
Walpurgis said:
I'm just being realistic. If you vote NDP in some Conservative wasteland in Alberta, you have no effect on anything. NDP doesn't get money from your vote and you just waste your time. It's a depressing reality but it is our reality.
Click to expand...


I can appreciate that, but the hope is a greater turnout would mean that sanity would prevail. There still must be hope, we can do better!!
 
B

Bento

Member
Tabris said:
If Harper gets elected again, I may try to convince my best friend and girlfriend to eventually move to Scandinavia with me for a couple years until Canada gets its act together again or those old generation Canadians holding us back die off.
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Just be vary that Norway, Finland and Denmark have some remarkably shitty right wing governments with anti-immigrant components. So probably head straight for Sweden if that's what you're not looking for but be sure to leave before the 2018 election, things are going to get ugly :p
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
I find the arguments around improving our democracy that focus on improving turnout first kind of frustrating. There's really no reason to believe that a uniform increase in turnout would actually result in substantially different outcomes. Yes, older and more conservative people are somewhat more likely to vote, but a) not *THAT* much more likely and b) there's no shortage of conservative youth either. The combination of those two things means a difference in outcome of maybe a few points here and there.

But it's also trying to cure the disease by treating the symptoms, like dunking a person with HIV-related pneumonia into an ice bath because they have a fever. Turnout won't improve until the system counts every vote. Turning back the clock and going back to a two party system will continue to leave voters disaffected as well, since many will be left out in the cold for a party that affects their views (probably especially minorities).

The only answer is PR.
 
L

lacinius

Member
maharg said:
I find the arguments around improving our democracy that focus on improving turnout first kind of frustrating. There's really no reason to believe that a uniform increase in turnout would actually result in substantially different outcomes. Yes, older and more conservative people are somewhat more likely to vote, but a) not *THAT* much more likely and b) there's no shortage of conservative youth either. The combination of those two things means a difference in outcome of maybe a few points here and there.

But it's also trying to cure the disease by treating the symptoms, like dunking a person with HIV-related pneumonia into an ice bath because they have a fever. Turnout won't improve until the system counts every vote. Turning back the clock and going back to a two party system will continue to leave voters disaffected as well, since many will be left out in the cold for a party that affects their views (probably especially minorities).

The only answer is PR.
Click to expand...


That's all well and good for next election... but where does that leave us for this election? I'm doubting Canada will be better served if more choose to opt out on Oct. 19th and instead go straight to the liquor store to stock up, as opposed to voting first, and then stocking up at the liquor store.
 
E

Elija2

Member
"This is an emerging battleground riding. Current local or regional polling suggests that the Harper Conservative can be defeated if people vote together for change."

Yeah right, not when the Conservatives had over 50% of the vote last election.
 
K

killer rin

Member
lacinius said:
That's all well and good for next election... but where does that leave us for this election? I'm doubting Canada will be better served if more choose to opt out on Oct. 19th and instead go straight to the liquor store to stock up, as opposed to voting first, and then stocking up at the liquor store.
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Good idea, I'll have to remember so I can get plastered when the results say the Conservatives won again.
And then conversely be able to party if they lose
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Elija2 said:
"This is an emerging battleground riding. Current local or regional polling suggests that the Harper Conservative can be defeated if people vote together for change."

Yeah right, not when the Conservatives had over 50% of the vote last election.
Click to expand...

39.62% to be exact
 
M

Mailbox

Member
Oh shit (as in surprise), my riding might actually not be a conservative riding anymore? Past elections have always been Conservative, but looks like NDP are pulling through here.
 
F

Firestorm

Member
16n0ZeL.png


I'll be voting NDP as my local MP has been good to us so far and my top issues seem to be better represented by the party.
 
M

mo60

Member
Walpurgis said:
Forget about that and use this.
http://www.votetogether.ca/

Vote for whichever party has the strongest chance at ending Harper and if you're in a hardcore Conservative riding, just stay home.
Click to expand...

Looks like I have to vote for the independent candidate on election day if the polls stay the same in my riding.There's like a 19% gap between the independent candidate and the conservative candidate in my riding.

Link to my riding.
http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/48031/st-albertedmonton/
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
This is my itinerary for next month.

October 12th - Turkey Day
October 19th - Re-Elect a Turkey Day
October 20th - Call Into Work Sick Due to Hangover

It saddens me that there are uninformed voters out there who remain blissfully unaware as to which non-Conservative candidate they need to vote for in their specific riding in order to oust Harper.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Me too. This time. Not next time though, because we legally won't be able to.
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Can't you just not let the government know you've moved outside the country long-term? My dad is currently living outside of Canada, and he was saying that he's not affected by the legislation as long as he maintains his Canadian residence and continues to pay his taxes here. I'm hoping he's not wrong about that!

mo60 said:
A new Nanos poll has released and it's takes into account people's views post quebec french debate

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150926 Ballot TrackingE.pdf
Click to expand...

Exact numbers:

image.jpg
Click to expand...

The only place the NDP vote is holding right now is BC. They should have enough of a cushion in Quebec that they'll be able to hold on to a lot of their seats there, but that's not as sure a thing as it was a few weeks ago. I'd think this supports the idea that there are very few races in which it's the Liberals and the NDP stealing votes from each other, since the Conservatives seem to be benefiting from voters abandoning the NDP.

Monday's debate is going to be intense! It's the one area where Harper still has a huge (if inexplicable) lead with voters, and it's also widely seen as Trudeau's weak spot: foreign policy, which will include defense and terrorism. I still maintain that very few voters actually vote based on foreign policy, but it's still going to be interesting to see what comes out of it.
 
G

gabbo

Member
matthewwhatever said:
Monday's debate is going to be intense! It's the one area where Harper still has a huge (if inexplicable) lead with voters, and it's also widely seen as Trudeau's weak spot: foreign policy, which will include defense and terrorism. I still maintain that very few voters actually vote based on foreign policy, but it's still going to be interesting to see what comes out of it.
Click to expand...

There is still a mountain of things to push on Harper in this area, if Mulcair and/or Trudeau know what they're doing. Harper will play up fear like death is literally on stage next to him, and he's the only one able to hold back his cold dead hands from killing us all, and Mulcair and Trudeau need to hammer him on it.
 
B

BLunted

Banned
Firestorm said:
16n0ZeL.png


I'll be voting NDP as my local MP has been good to us so far and my top issues seem to be better represented by the party.
Click to expand...

I am pretty sure that site is rigged to make you think your a Liberal no matter what you answer. Rather insidious actually.

I answered all the questions pretty much in the most conservative way possible, and it still told me I am a liberal, LOL
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
matthewwhatever said:
Can't you just not let the government know you've moved outside the country long-term? My dad is currently living outside of Canada, and he was saying that he's not affected by the legislation as long as he maintains his Canadian residence and continues to pay his taxes here. I'm hoping he's not wrong about that!
Click to expand...

Although I have money in Canada and investments in Canada and family in Canada and everything else in Canada, because I don't own a house in Canada, I do not have "significant residential ties" (CRA words) and thus am an emigrant / non-resident and thus can't vote if I'm away for more than 5 years.

Your Dad is probably safe if he has a house in Canada. Here's the CRA determination test. I've talked with 3 or 4 agents about whether or not I might be still qualify as a resident and all said no. :(
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
BLunted said:
I am pretty sure that site is rigged to make you think your a Liberal no matter what you answer. Rather insidious actually.

I answered all the questions pretty much in the most conservative way possible, and it still told me I am a liberal, LOL
Click to expand...

that site is the worst to match you with a party for 2015 since there are many 2011 platform issues on that poopy site. There are even 2008 party policies in that one too.

I recommend CBC's which is more up to date with 2015 party platforms

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/
 
S

Silexx

Member
With the clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP, I wonder if anti-Harper sentiment may create a bandwagon effect where everyone(who want Harper out) will latch on to the one party who is trending upwards.
 
C

Cynar

Member
Walpurgis said:
I'm just being realistic. If you vote NDP in some Conservative wasteland in Alberta, you have no effect on anything. NDP doesn't get money from your vote and you just waste your time. It's a depressing reality but it is our reality.
Click to expand...
They used to. Fuck Harper for that change in an attempt to bankrupt the other parties. I used to vote green in my riding just to throw them some money cause my NDP member of parliament had it on lockdown. I still liked the NDP policies but wanted to help the little guy in a way.
 
K

killer rin

Member
Silexx said:
With the clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP, I wonder if anti-Harper sentiment may create a bandwagon effect where everyone(who want Harper out) will latch on to the one party who is trending upwards.
Click to expand...

Well, it will be more easier for the Liberals to pull that protest vote. Hell, if you look last election when they collapsed, a large portion of Liberals went Conservative to block the NDP, so it is possible; especially if the Liberals are regaining their votes from the Conservatives and pulling some new ones.

That said I'm personally still doing ABC in my riding, and from the number of Lawn signs I have counted when bored it looks like i'm going NDP
Not that that bothers me because I lean NDP anyways
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
The Niqab debate has not given the Cons that much bump in seat projection ib Quebec but may translate into +2 to +3 for them and subtracts away from NDP. Including Kurdel's riding of Montgamy (spelling).

In Montreal, a minor shift of small numbers help Liberals. Small number of Federalist voters returning to Liberals while a minor small number of Nationalists going away from NDP to the Bloc. A combination that helps Liberals win a back a few 2011 loses but not enough for the Bloc to win a single seat in the city
 
C

CitizenVectron

Member
Silexx said:
With the clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP, I wonder if anti-Harper sentiment may create a bandwagon effect where everyone(who want Harper out) will latch on to the one party who is trending upwards.
Click to expand...

In some ridings, yes, but in others where the ndp are slightly ahead it could mean conservative wins, like in Saskatchewan. The only real place it would work well is Ontario. But overall a 10-point swing between the lpc and ndp would probably result in an equal gain for both the liberals and conservatives.
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
Silexx said:
With the clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP, I wonder if anti-Harper sentiment may create a bandwagon effect where everyone(who want Harper out) will latch on to the one party who is trending upwards.
Click to expand...

No for all the reasons we discussed on the last page.

I don't even think the statement "clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP" is at all a valid statement to make. In Ontario and Atlantic Canada yes long ago, but with other places, "closing the gap" would probably be a better description. We need to wait for more data to see if recent polls are outliers.
 
M

mo60

Member
With the current polling data the NDP should be able to get at least 50 seats in Quebec so they really aren't in danger yet because the Liberals support is still mostly concentrated in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. I do expect the NDP to get back some of the support they look to be losing in Quebec by election day.
 
M

Morrigan Stark

Arrogant Smirk
Yeah a few seconds is just ridiculous. It also encourages debaters to engage in platitudes and one-liners and simplistic talking points instead of actually debating. Idiotic format all around.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Morrigan Stark said:
Yeah a few seconds is just ridiculous. It also encourages debaters to engage in platitudes and one-liners and simplistic talking points instead of actually debating. Idiotic format all around.
Click to expand...

it's as if the moderator (Anne-Marie Dussault) was more concerned with the Network's programming time than actually getting the party leader enough time to actually explain themselves in a respectable amount of time.

LOL, the Creditiste leader is hilarious.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Although I have money in Canada and investments in Canada and family in Canada and everything else in Canada, because I don't own a house in Canada, I do not have "significant residential ties" (CRA words) and thus am an emigrant / non-resident and thus can't vote if I'm away for more than 5 years.
Click to expand...

Well that's just stupid nonsense. Hopefully by the next election (or 2018, since we may have a few elections by then), those laws get reversed.

Silexx said:
With the clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP, I wonder if anti-Harper sentiment may create a bandwagon effect where everyone(who want Harper out) will latch on to the one party who is trending upwards.
Click to expand...

Tiktaalik said:
No for all the reasons we discussed on the last page.

I don't even think the statement "clear trend of the Liberals pulling ahead of the NDP" is at all a valid statement to make. In Ontario and Atlantic Canada yes long ago, but with other places, "closing the gap" would probably be a better description. We need to wait for more data to see if recent polls are outliers.
Click to expand...

On the one hand, I lean more toward's Tiktaalik view -- I don't think they share as many voters as some people assume. On the other hand, the polls have been showing an absurdly high number of undecideds since the beginning of the campaign, and most pollsters have assumed that those people are just waiting to see which party is in a better position to win/beat Harper before committing one way or another. I'm skeptical of that, but the idea is certainly out there -- and judging from the stridently anti-Liberal tone the NDP has started taking, their internal poll numbers may be showing something to that effect.
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
gutter_trash said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8ssqU9qOEo

debate of the 1968 election, look how civil they are, look how much time the moderator allows them to speak

our debates need to return to this civil format IMO,

enough with the Anne-Marie time limits, 10 secondes, 5 secondes!
Click to expand...

LMAO at the PC's answer to the first question (asked at 10:30 and answered around 13:00). I can only imagine what would happen if someone said that today.

I quickly skipped through it a bit and it seems way more civil than that disgraceful Globe & Mail debate and even that Quebec debate. What changed?
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Walpurgis said:
LMAO at the PC's answer to the first question (asked at 10:30 and answered around 13:00). I can only imagine what would happen if someone said that today.

I quickly skipped through it a bit and it seems way more civil than that disgraceful Globe & Mail debate and even that Quebec debate. What changed?
Click to expand...

Social Media, Leaders only care for zingers, punch lines and sound bites that easily to be heard in one quick blurb and then be package onto a TV or Radio advert
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Walpurgis said:
LMAO at the PC's answer to the first question (asked at 10:30 and answered around 13:00). I can only imagine what would happen if someone said that today.

I quickly skipped through it a bit and it seems way more civil than that disgraceful Globe & Mail debate and even that Quebec debate. What changed?
Click to expand...

Infotainment became du jour
 
T

Tiktaalik

Member
I think there's a particularly high likely hood of surprise outcomes in this election due to the riding redistribution and the length of time since the last election allowing for demographic change.

We've talked in the last few pages how many NDP and Liberal ridings are quite differentiated and there's not a great deal of ridings where they directly compete. This is due to historical factors, but also local factors such as demographics and incumbent popularity. If you look over the previous election data for some ridings you can see that once one party or person wins it, they are able to hold it and their margin of victory keeps getting bigger and bigger. People end up siding with one party because "they always win this riding." This sort of thinking is hard to shake but in this election riding redistribution may do it. My friend didn't even know she was in a new riding for example and she could have well voted for a party assuming she was in a totally different riding with a totally different history.

Locally I'm really interested to see if anything changes in Vancouver. I feel like in the years I've lived here the city has undergone dramatic demographic shifts and it's going to be very interesting to see if the voting patterns for various ridings follow traditional patterns, or start to look very different. Maybe there won't be any shocking switches of allegiance, but it will be interesting to see who is coming in second place.

In general I feel that Vancouver is getting older and less working class oriented. More money is flowing into working class East Vancouver. There are a great deal of traditionally working class, union supporting ridings around Vancouver that one would think would now have demographics more suiting the Liberal Party. On the other hand under Layton the NDP started to move away from being a union oriented party into being a party for environmentalist urbanites, so perhaps the NDP will retain strong support in these areas.
 
V

Vamphuntr

Member
K

Kifimbo

Member
Vamphuntr said:
This is Harper level of ad. Shameful.

If you want to attack Trudeau attack him on his lack of proper background and experience for the job and at worst on how he pales in comparison to his father intellect wise.
Click to expand...

Attacking him on C-51 and Keystone XL is fine. They just didn't need to put Trump name.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Hey, remember when Mulcair said:

Thomas Mulcair said:
"I'm not the type to have ever wanted to get involved in that sort of negative approach. The personal stuff — that's just not my cup of tea. I don't go down that street."
Click to expand...

In his defense, I guess, that was almost three whole months ago.
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
Other than the Trump thing, I think it was a good ad. They should have left the Trump thing out though since he doesn't have much to do with this election.
 
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