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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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firehawk12

Subete no aware
Is there many seats at all the conservatives would win if the Liberals and NDP were one party?
If you look at Stump's math, then not particularly. But I think this misses things like having a united election apparatus, more campaign money, a clear opponent to direct your attacks against, and so on. There are just intangibles that one can only hypothesize about.
 

Tabris

Member
If you look at Stump's math, then not particularly. But I think this misses things like having a united election apparatus, more campaign money, a clear opponent to direct your attacks against, and so on. There are just intangibles that one can only hypothesize about.

Yeah, but a clear majority of Canadians don't share the Conservatives ideals. So they would need to have changed their platform stances to sway some of that majority.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Yeah, but a clear majority of Canadians don't share the Conservatives ideals. So they would need to have changed their platform stances to sway some of that majority.
A "united left" party would probably need a huge policy convention to work out whatever issues they want to stand for. And yeah, you'll probably peel some people off to the CPC on the Liberal side and perhaps a new labour movement starts based on people from the NDP side, but I can imagine that the new party would be a moderate left-of-centre party with common social policies and at least some similar economic policies with regards to social programs and revenue generation.
 

Parch

Member
NDP was the opposition party. Quebec had big support. The west is looking like they could have significant support for the NDP as well. A few more NDP seats and the Conservatives would be out.

But what happens? Instead of Ontario and the maritimes picking NDP and getting the job done, they're going back to voting Liberal? Back to a party that has failed miserably in the last 20 years? If change is really wanted, give the new guys a chance instead of going back to voting that has just ended up in Conservative majorities.

Bloody frustrating.
 

Tabris

Member
So can someone mind explaining to me how a collation works?

Say Harper wins and wants to continue being PM. NDP and Liberals decide a collation is the only option. Do they then go to the governor general with that? or does it trigger a vote of no confidence against the PM (Harper) and triggers another election? I'm kind of in a grey area on how that works.

I honestly didn't care about Canadian politics until recently due to wanting to get out Harper, and I've just been frustrated since that I have 0 impact on being able to stop harper as conservatives don't stand a chance in my riding.
 
Considering gutter's tendencies and what he's generally posted about minority rights, I think it's safe to guess where he draws the line.

you say this allot but you got no proof to back it up, what the hell are you talking about?

NDP was the opposition party. Quebec had big support. The west is looking like they could have significant support for the NDP as well. A few more NDP seats and the Conservatives would be out.

But what happens? Instead of Ontario and the maritimes picking NDP and getting the job done, they're going back to voting Liberal? Back to a party that has failed miserably in the last 20 years? If change is really wanted, give the new guys a chance instead of going back to voting that has just ended up in Conservative majorities.

Bloody frustrating.

how old are you? Last time I checked Jean Chretien was Prime Minister 20 years ago and a damn good one.

Why take a chance on the NDP who never governed, picked lamp-post candidates here and there to govern the county?

St-Laurent, Pearson, Trudeau, Chretien and even Martin to a certain extent have proven themselves as good Prime Ministers
 

maharg

idspispopd
So can someone mind explaining to me how a collation works?

Say Harper wins and wants to continue being PM. NDP and Liberals decide a collation is the only option. Do they then go to the governor general with that? or does it trigger a vote of no confidence against the PM (Harper) and triggers another election? I'm kind of in a grey area on how that works.

I honestly didn't care about Canadian politics until recently due to wanting to get out Harper, and I've just been frustrated since that I have 0 impact on being able to stop harper as conservatives don't stand a chance in my riding.

The first thing that happens in a new session of parliament is a throne speech, which is usually voted on and treated as a confidence vote. If the Liberals and NDP do not give Harper confidence, then Harper can advise the GG to drop a new writ and go into another election. The GG is not actually obligated to accept that advice, though, because he no longer holds the confidence of the house. If he believes someone else can, he can give them a chance at a throne speech.

The Liberals and NDP do not need to (and actually have no position to) go to the GG with a proposal to govern. He would call on them if the situation warranted it.
 

diaspora

Member
NDP was the opposition party. Quebec had big support. The west is looking like they could have significant support for the NDP as well. A few more NDP seats and the Conservatives would be out.

But what happens? Instead of Ontario and the maritimes picking NDP and getting the job done, they're going back to voting Liberal? Back to a party that has failed miserably in the last 20 years? If change is really wanted, give the new guys a chance instead of going back to voting that has just ended up in Conservative majorities.

Bloody frustrating.
They have both a better platform and better candidates. What the hell do you want from them?
 

Tiktaalik

Member
I still point to the Saskatchewan Party, where the Liberals and Conservatives merged to defeat the NDP, as the perfect counter example to the whole "two parties are so completely different and will never reconcile their differences" thing.

Maybe it will take another 20 years of Harper/CPC rule for the NDP/Liberals to get the idea. Meanwhile we suffer more as these two parties continue their penis measuring contest.

To me this seems like evidence that the ideological left wing split is real. If the Conservatives and Liberals can so easily ally then the NDP must be correct and there is not a large difference between the Libs and Conservatives. BC also has big tent free market, fiscally conservative parties that hug the centre.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
So can someone mind explaining to me how a collation works?

Say Harper wins and wants to continue being PM. NDP and Liberals decide a collation is the only option. Do they then go to the governor general with that? or does it trigger a vote of no confidence against the PM (Harper) and triggers another election? I'm kind of in a grey area on how that works.

I honestly didn't care about Canadian politics until recently due to wanting to get out Harper, and I've just been frustrated since that I have 0 impact on being able to stop harper as conservatives don't stand a chance in my riding.

What happens is that the government will have a vote that has to be passed - typically the budget - and if it doesn't pass, the government has lost the confidence of the house of commons and essentially falls. Based on past history with minority governments, the GG will let another party have the chance to form government and try to govern... and if that party fails a similar vote, then it's election time. But the last time this happened, we are talking about the era of Joe Clark, so we really don't know.

The closest thing we had in recent memory was the Dion/Layton/Duceppe coalition, which was stopped with propagation - in that case the government saw that it would lose, so postponed a vote of confidence. And by the time the vote happened, the public turned on the coalition idea and the Liberals are in their stupid COALITIONS NEVER stance that they have now.
 
To me this seems like evidence that the ideological left wing split is real. If the Conservatives and Liberals can so easily ally then the NDP must be correct and there is not a large difference between the Libs and Conservatives. BC also has big tent free market, fiscally conservative parties that hug the centre.

Provincial Parties are not always equilvalnt to the Federal ones with the same name by name.

Many Liberal provincial parties today are not affiliated with the Federal Party.
Just as many PC provincial parties don't share the same socio-Conservative stance as the new CPC Federally.
Just Ontario and a few Atlantic provinces still have an affiliation (Liberals that is)

The NDP is the only Federal party that has as many Provincial parties officially affiliated to them
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
To me this seems like evidence that the ideological left wing split is real. If the Conservatives and Liberals can so easily ally then the NDP must be correct and there is not a large difference between the Libs and Conservatives. BC also has big tent free market, fiscally conservative parties that hug the centre.
Sure, but then we are stuck with the only other solution - Liberals "infiltrate" (or merge with) the CPC and start to affect the party's policies internally at party conventions. lol

But I look at it this way, at this point Mulcair is probably as centrist as Trudeau. So right now, all they're doing is distracting the protest vote - specifically in Ontario.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
It's not necessarily vote splitting within each riding, it's seats being split between the left. If the NDP had the Liberal wins, then the Conservatives would be voted out. Competition between the left just means the Conservatives benefit.

Hoping for a coalition government is highly unlikely. There had to be just one opposition party against the Conservatives. Not that I'd want to see Canada go to a 2 party system, but if change is wanted to oust a government, there has to be a national understanding that support for one opposition party is needed.

This assumes that there is no difference between the Liberals and NDP. If one subtracted the second place party it cannot be assumed that that "left wing support" would necessarily go to the third place party. For a real life example some wealthy suburbs in Vancouver where the Liberal Party may win a seat are unlikely to vote for the NDP ever. If the Liberals weren't an option, they'd vote Conservative.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Frankly, if the two parties were so utterly interchangeable we'd probably be talking about an NDP majority right now. Ontario clearly does not think of them as interchangeable, though.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
This assumes that there is no difference between the Liberals and NDP. If one subtracted the second place party it cannot be assumed that that "left wing support" would necessarily go to the third place party. For a real life example some wealthy suburbs in Vancouver where the Liberal Party may win a seat are unlikely to vote for the NDP ever. If the Liberals weren't an option, they'd vote Conservative.
Yes, but what if you are fiscally conservative but believe in a woman's right to choose? It gets more complicated because it's not one or the other. Would you be happy saving a few dollars in taxes if it meant even less access to abortion clinics? That's up to centrist Liberals to decide, I suppose.

Frankly, if the two parties were so utterly interchangeable we'd probably be talking about an NDP majority right now. Ontario clearly does not think of them as interchangeable, though.
Ontario hates the NDP brand as much as Alberta hates the Liberal brand, so here we are. If there was only two choices, we have no idea what people would do.

I mean the real solution is PR. Otherwise a 2 party system is inevitable no matter how it's created.
Yeah, of course. But PR will never happen, so what can we do?
 

Parch

Member
Frankly, if the two parties were so utterly interchangeable we'd probably be talking about an NDP majority right now. Ontario clearly does not think of them as interchangeable, though.
Apparently picking between the differences of the NDP and Liberals is more important to Ontario than getting the Conservatives out.
 
PR will 100% happen if either NDP or Green win the election ever.

So while I prefer Liberals platform, I would recommend voting in NDP if it's a close call in your riding.
..or if the NDP gets a proper minority backed by the Liberals. Alternatively, we also have a chance of getting it with the Liberals since they want the study, and the last time they wanted a study we got MMP
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Firehawk12 rereading our discussion it feels like we're missing each other. What point are you trying to make here?
Well, I'm just saying it's not as simple as "Liberals will never agree with the NDP" or "Liberals are more likely going to vote Conservative in a 2 party landscape". We just don't know because we haven't been forced to make the choice. My point is that maybe you agree with the CPC on every single fiscal issue but disagree with them on social issues - which is a position that the LPC occupy now - and if that's the case, it's not as easy as simply voting CPC because you happen to be in a higher tax bracket.

PR will 100% happen if either NDP or Green win the election ever.

So while I prefer Liberals platform, I would recommend voting in NDP if it's a close call in your riding.
Perhaps a vote on some form of PR will happen, but based on the plebiscites in BC and Ontario, I just don't think most people want it... it will probably fail when it gets to the public.
 

Parch

Member
To me this seems like evidence that the ideological left wing split is real. If the Conservatives and Liberals can so easily ally then the NDP must be correct and there is not a large difference between the Libs and Conservatives.
They're not. We use the terms left and right but the major Canadian political parties are basically center. Even the NDP is considered to be more center now.

The biggest mistake is comparing us to the United States. The Liberals are NOT like the Democrats, and the Conservatives are NOT like the Republicans. All of Canada is more left than all of the U.S. IMO. Politically, the two countries are not comparable at all.
 

jstripes

Banned
Yeah, too late to matter. And clearly, Canadians don't care anyway. The Conservatives can get away with anything, it seems.
If AdScam had bn a Conservative thing, it would have been like water off a duck's back.

It's almost as if hold we Liberals to a higher standard...

Suburban Ontario is frustrating. This long election seems to be working out for the conservatives...
Which was exactly why they called it early.
 

SRG01

Member
Provincial Parties are not always equilvalnt to the Federal ones with the same name by name.

Many Liberal provincial parties today are not affiliated with the Federal Party.
Just as many PC provincial parties don't share the same socio-Conservative stance as the new CPC Federally.
Just Ontario and a few Atlantic provinces still have an affiliation (Liberals that is)

The NDP is the only Federal party that has as many Provincial parties officially affiliated to them

This post is very true. Many of the provincial parties aside from the NDP have little to no relation to their federal counterparts. The BC Liberals for example are a lot closer to the CPC than to the Federal Liberals. Same with the Alberta Liberals or the Alberta PC party.

edit: My voter card came in the other day. I'll probably take advantage of the early polling this time around...
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Well, I'm just saying it's not as simple as "Liberals will never agree with the NDP" or "Liberals are more likely going to vote Conservative in a 2 party landscape". We just don't know because we haven't been forced to make the choice. My point is that maybe you agree with the CPC on every single fiscal issue but disagree with them on social issues - which is a position that the LPC occupy now - and if that's the case, it's not as easy as simply voting CPC because you happen to be in a higher tax bracket.

Right ok. Well I think we agree with one another. People vote for parties for complex reasons. Canada is too big and complex to make sweeping political assumptions. We always have to take into account regional details, demographics and all sorts of other things.
 

Tabris

Member
If Harper gets elected again, I may try to convince my best friend and girlfriend to eventually move to Scandinavia with me for a couple years until Canada gets its act together again or those old generation Canadians holding us back die off.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
It's not necessarily vote splitting within each riding, it's seats being split between the left. If the NDP had the Liberal wins, then the Conservatives would be voted out. Competition between the left just means the Conservatives benefit.

Seat splitting is a danger, of course, but it's one that can be fixed after the election. Vote splitting, such as it poses a challenge to getting a representative outcome, cannot be. That Canadian parties are scared of coalitions is entire another matter.
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
If Harper gets elected again, I may try to convince my best friend and girlfriend to eventually move to Scandinavia with me for a couple years until Canada gets its act together again or those old generation Canadians holding us back die off.
You're one of my favourite joke characters.
 
This post is very true. Many of the provincial parties aside from the NDP have little to no relation to their federal counterparts. The BC Liberals for example are a lot closer to the CPC than to the Federal Liberals. Same with the Alberta Liberals or the Alberta PC party.

edit: My voter card came in the other day. I'll probably take advantage of the early polling this time around...
same with the Quebec Liberals who cut off affiliation in the late 60s.

Premier Robert Bourassa had lots of friction with Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and both had disagreements on Constituional matters
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Why are provincial parties allowed to have the same name as federal parties, even when they have no affiliation? This only serves to confuse people.
If Harper gets elected again, I may try to convince my best friend and girlfriend to eventually move to Scandinavia with me for a couple years until Canada gets its act together again or those old generation Canadians holding us back die off.
I'll be stuck here, unfortunately but if the Cons remain in power once I finish school and get my career, I will be moving to my aunt's house in Sweden. With the way the Cons are killing science, I might not even be able to find a job here anyway.
 
I'm all aboard the Leaving Harper's Canada train

Well, I'll have a Japan exchange term next year no matter who wins this, so.......... I'll still be glad to be away from Harper!
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
reminder: if you leave harper's canada, you won't be able to vote to make it not harper's canada in the future because canadians living abroad aren't real canadians and don't count
 

Walpurgis

Banned
reminder: if you leave harper's canada, you won't be able to vote to make it not harper's canada in the future because canadians living abroad aren't real canadians and don't count

Without PR it's not like most people's votes would matter anyway. I would be moving out of a battleground riding but
rnwfi.jpg
 
My voter card came in the other day. I'll probably take advantage of the early polling this time around...

You can actually vote now! Just head to your riding's Elections Canada office -- they're allowing voting in person up until the 13th, in addition to the advance voting days.

It's not necessarily vote splitting within each riding, it's seats being split between the left. If the NDP had the Liberal wins, then the Conservatives would be voted out. Competition between the left just means the Conservatives benefit.

...and if the Liberals had NDP seats, then they'd stand a chance of forming government too. Except it doesn't work that way, because it's not a 1:1 thing. As others have noted, just because someone supports the Liberals or the NDP, that doesn't mean they'd support the other party, let alone a joint party.

What happens is that the government will have a vote that has to be passed - typically the budget - and if it doesn't pass, the government has lost the confidence of the house of commons and essentially falls. Based on past history with minority governments, the GG will let another party have the chance to form government and try to govern... and if that party fails a similar vote, then it's election time. But the last time this happened, we are talking about the era of Joe Clark, so we really don't know.

Correction: this has actually only happened once, and it was in 1925-26. Any other time a minority government has fallen, it's triggered an election. Thanks to the King-Byng Affair (and the gradual erosion of the GG's powers by successive PMs), the idea of a GG asking an opposition party to form government after the sitting government loses a confidence vote is pretty much a non-starter. It could happen, to be sure, but it would be a massive break from established convention.

Perhaps a vote on some form of PR will happen, but based on the plebiscites in BC and Ontario, I just don't think most people want it... it will probably fail when it gets to the public.

There won't be a vote on it -- both the Liberals and NDP have said they'll be implementing a new system if they get in. I vaguely remember the Conservatives saying (or leaking that they were planning on saying) that they'd pass a law requiring that no one could change the voting system, but that's about as legal as the "tax lock" they promised yesterday (which is to say, not at all, since one Parliament can't handcuff future Parliaments like that).


you say this allot but you got no proof to back it up, what the hell are you talking about?

I'm talking about the fact you're regularly willing to throw minorities under the bus. You've spent the last year complaining about the fact that Trudeau was calling the Conservatives on their dog-whistle racism; when he gave a speech on it, you devoted quite a bit of energy on haranguing the previous Canadian PoliGAF thread about how he was protecting people who weren't even "real Canadians". You've done likewise in this thread, on multiple occasions. For someone who so loudly proclaims himself to be a Liberal, the amount of time you spend ranting about one of their signature accomplishments -- multiculturalism -- sure suggests otherwise.
 

Popstar

Member
David Suzuki says Trudeau called his views on climate change ‘sanctimonious crap’ in heated phone call

http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/story.html?id=11393762
You must have missed the discussion earlier in the thread about it.

Also, Trudeau didn't call Suzuki's views on climate change "sanctimonious crap", he responded with "I don’t have to listen to this sanctimonious crap" after Suzuki told him he was "just being political". It's not the same thing.

EDIT: I realize you're just quoting the article but this sort of reporting is a pet peeve of mine.
 

lacinius

Member
Forget about that and use this.
http://www.votetogether.ca/

Vote for whichever party has the strongest chance at ending Harper and if you're in a hardcore Conservative riding, just stay home.


I should think we need more people voting, not less... voter apathy is never the solution.

From 2011 of the 24,257,592 eligible voters, only 14,823,408 bothered to vote at all (61.1%). Of those votes cast, the CPC received 5,835,270 votes, or (39.3%) of the vote.

So to put that in perspective, the CPC "mandate" in 2011 was based on 24% of all eligible voters... and now can see how that 24% impacted all of Canada, and all because way too many could not be bothered. Get out and vote... everyone!!!!!!
 

Walpurgis

Banned
I should think we need more people voting, not less... voter apathy is never the solution.

From 2011 of the 24,257,592 eligible voters, only 14,823,408 bothered to vote at all (61.1%). Of those votes cast, the CPC received 5,835,270 votes, or (39.3%) of the vote.

So to put that in perspective, the CPC "mandate" in 2011 was based on 24% of all eligible voters... and now can see how that 24% impacted all of Canada, and all because way too many could not be bothered. Get out and vote... everyone!!!!!!
I'm just being realistic. If you vote NDP in some Conservative wasteland in Alberta, you have no effect on anything. NDP doesn't get money from your vote and you just waste your time. It's a depressing reality but it is our reality.
 

jstripes

Banned
If Harper gets elected again, I may try to convince my best friend and girlfriend to eventually move to Scandinavia with me for a couple years until Canada gets its act together again or those old generation Canadians holding us back die off.

If Harper gets elected again, I don't know what I'm going to consider. I seriously can't live in a Canada where his views are considered normal. Take that as fact :p
 
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