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[UberTag]

I just really don't want the Tories again...

I think it's too late for that.
We really just need to establish where anti-Harper voters need to swing their support in each given riding based on recent polling... and pray.

For instance, in Ontario, I would advocate the following approach...

VOTE LIBERAL

Ajax
Aurora / Oak Ridges / Richmond Hill
Bay of Quinte
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Burlington
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West
Eglinton / Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke / Lakeshore
Etobicoke North
Glengarry / Prescott / Russell
Guelph
Haldimand / Norfolk
Hamilton West / Ancaster / Dundas
Humber River / Black Creek
Kanata / Carleton
Kingston and the Islands
King / Vaughan
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener / Conestoga
London North Centre
London West
Markham / Stouffville
Markham / Thornhill
Markham / Unionville
Milton
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East / Cooksville
Mississauga / Erin Mills
Mississauga / Lakeshore
Mississauga / Malton
Mississauga / Streetsville
Nepean
Newmarket / Aurora
Nipissing / Timiskaming
Northumberland / Peterborough South
Oakville
Oakville North / Burlington
Orléans
Ottawa South
Ottawa / Vanier
Ottawa West / Nepean
Peterborough / Kawartha
Pickering / Uxbridge
Richmond Hill
St. Catharines
Scarborough / Agincourt
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough / Guildwood
Scarborough / Rouge Park
Toronto / St. Paul's
Vaughan / Woodbridge
Waterloo
Willowdale
York Centre

VOTE NDP

Algoma / Manitoulin / Kapuskasing
Essex
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton East / Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
London / Fanshawe
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Oshawa
Ottawa Centre
Sarnia / Lambton
Sudbury
Thunder Bay / Rainy River
Thunder Bay / Superior North
Timmins / James Bay
Toronto / Danforth
Windsor / Tecumseh
Windsor West

VOTE HOWEVER YOU LIKE, TORIES AREN'T COMPETITIVE

Beaches / East York
Brampton East
Davenport
Parkdale / High Park
Scarborough North
Scarborough Southwest
Spadina / Fort York
Toronto Centre
University / Rosedale
York South / Weston

VOTE HOWEVER YOU LIKE, THIS RIDING IS A 3-WAY DOGFIGHT

Sault Ste. Marie

YOU'RE PROBABLY SCREWED, MONITOR YOUR LOCAL RIDING FOR MOMENTUM SHIFTS

Kenora

YOU'RE SCREWED, TRY TO SWAP YOUR VOTE WITH SOMEONE IN ANOTHER RIDING WHO WANTS TO VOTE CONSERVATIVE BUT ISN'T INVESTED IN HARPER WINNING... OR MOVE AWAY

Barrie / Innisfil
Barrie / Springwater / Oro-Medonte
Brantford / Brant
Bruce / Grey / Owen Sound
Cambridge
Carleton
Chatham-Kent / Leamington
Dufferin / Caledon
Durham
Elgin / Middlesex / London
Flamborough / Glambrook
Haliburton / Kawartha Lakes / Brock
Hastings / Lennox and Addington
Huron / Bruce
Kitchener South / Hespeler
Lambton / Kent / Middlesex
Lanark / Frontenac / Kingston
Leeds / Grenville / Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Niagara Falls
Niagara West
Oxford
Parry Sound / Muskoka
Perth / Wellington
Renfrew / Nipissing / Pembroke
Simcoe / Grey
Simcoe North
Stormont / Dundas / South Glengarry
Thornhill
Wellington / Halton Hills
Whitby
York / Simcoe

I mean, this isn't rocket science.

 

[Guesong]

The NDP dropped the ball hard so far this campaign.

I mean, pander to right-leaning voters all you want but I feel that's all they've been doing. Pandering while forgetting their core of why people voted for them in 2011 to begin with. (which, to be fair, for alot of people, that core was Jack Layton).

My riding is a Liberal/NDP toss-up last I checked, so I might switch boat to Liberals for what it matters. I'm praying for a conservative minority at this point so that Harper can be kept in check while Mulcair resigns or something, then NDP is in shambles, then elections are called...and who knows, Justin might be ready at that time! /halfsarcasm

No, but really. Whoever is behind this awful campaign planning needs to never have a job with them again.

Well, 20 days to go...who knows.

 

[MutFox]

Looks like I'm going Liberal...
Anything is better than Harper.

 

[Apathy]

This is sort of what it boils down to. Her options were basically "I'm ignorant" or "It was insensitive of me." Maybe it says something about me, but I feel like apologizing for doing something offensive when you were younger is far preferable to admitting that you're an idiot.

For everyone it's better to apologize, it's the smartest thing to do, cause then you play the "i learned my lesson, here let me take photo ops with members of the people I offended" card and gain points that you are better yourself. Saying she didn't know what Auschwitz is, as a woman that went to three universities, got two degrees apparently, a masters in social work and was on the school board is so so so much fucking worse. I really don't know how in the western world it would be at all possible to go 30+ years and not know what it is.

 

[gabbo]

For instance, in Ontario, I would advocate the following approach...

VOTE LIBERAL
Humber River / Black Creek

I can't bring myself to do it. The NDP candidate runs a bloody food coop for god sake. He's living the NDP ethos.

 

[Oppo]

Yes but unfortunately he's not around, so you should vote for whoever has the best chance to beat the Conservatives in your riding. I don't know why you don't trust Trudeau, he seems pretty honest and has been running an honest campaign.

I don't think Trudeau is the problem. I think he honestly – mostly – means well. the problem is the liberal party. who will simply manipulate him.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I think it's too late for that.
We really just need to establish where anti-Harper voters need to swing their support in each given riding based on recent polling... and pray.

For instance, in Ontario, I would advocate the following approach...

...

I mean, this isn't rocket science.

I can say with certainty that you can move Ottawa Centre down to Tories aren't competitive. The riding contains a substantial student population from two universities, plus two neighbourhoods that are like our equivalent of the Annex. Their city councillor was a former deputy leader for the Greens. They Conservatives will be lucky to top 20% there.

Toronto-Danforth probably falls into that category too; the Conservatives actually finished behind the Greens there in the not-too-distant past, and they got a whopping 5.4% in the by-election to replace Layton in 2012.

I suspect that Nicket Belt and Sudbury fall into the no chance for the Conservatives too. Neither one has ever come anywhere close to voting Tory; the last time the Conservatives had a close finish in Sudbury was 1984 (when they finished 9 points back in the largest Conservative landslide in history) and consistently finished 20-30 points back in Nickel Belt.

I can't bring myself to do it. The NDP candidate runs a bloody food coop for god sake. He's living the NDP ethos.

The Liberals won there by 20 points in 2011, and that was their closest victory in almost 30 years. I'm absolutely certain you can vote NDP there without any fear of helping out the Conservatives.

 

[mo60]

I don't think Trudeau is the problem. I think he honestly – mostly – means well. the problem is the liberal party. who will simply manipulate him.

That is one of my fears also.

 

[Minus_Me]

What's the best resource to see the history of a particular riding?

 

[mo60]

What's the best resource to see the history of a particular riding?

This.
http://www.votetogether.ca/

 

[BigJonsson]

What's the best resource to see the history of a particular riding?

Wikipedia or just google the riding name

 

[Morrigan Stark]

Still don't understand how you go through elementary school, middle school, high school or university without knowing what Auschwitz was.

I don't know about your schooling but here I didn't learn about Auschwitz in high school but by educating myself personally. I did learn a lot about WW2 and the nazi regime in my final year of high school (grade 11 equivalent) through a History class but this was an optional class that wasn't typically given (and definitely not at every high school), I knew of Auschwitz already by the time I took that class but yeah, I bet many people went through all of high school without really learning about that stuff. Sad but true.

 

[Minus_Me]

thanks everyone.

Surprised to hear that Morrigan, did you go to french or english school? Curious if there would be a difference. First time we were exposed to the holocaust was grade 6 at my school.

 

[G-Pink]

VOTE HOWEVER YOU LIKE, THIS RIDING IS A 3-WAY DOGFIGHT

Sault Ste. Marie

Oh man, that's real funny seeing my area being the only one on that category.

Our NDP candidate is a newcomer and ex-financial planner, following the legacy of Tony Martin, a revered MP we had before our Conservative MP who very closely took over in 2011.

Our Liberal candidate is a current city Councillor, and has the name recognition.

Plenty of rural areas, so the Conservative candidate has that portion of the vote.

GONNA BE FUNNNNN.

 

[Alavard]

I don't know about your schooling but here I didn't learn about Auschwitz in high school but by educating myself personally. I did learn a lot about WW2 and the nazi regime in my final year of high school (grade 11 equivalent) through a History class but this was an optional class that wasn't typically given (and definitely not at every high school), I knew of Auschwitz already by the time I took that class but yeah, I bet many people went through all of high school without really learning about that stuff. Sad but true.

I'm pretty sure I didn't learn about Auschwitz specifically in school either. In my case, we learned about WWII and the horrors of it in grade 10 Canadian History, but I'm fairly certain we didn't talk specifically about Auschwitz. I'm 30 now, so that would have been about 15 years ago, and in Ontario. And since I took Computer Science in University, and Computer Security & Investigations in College, I didn't learn anything more regarding WWII at those times either.

I'm pretty sure I picked it up out of pop culture/internet discussions.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

In Halifax we had yearly school wide Remembrance Day events plus some amount of discussion every year in elementary school, which always seemed to focus on WW2. I think something similar happened in Junior High, and the (mandatory?) Grade 11 Canadian History class had a big component on WW2. We also watched Schindler's List in one of my classes, I don't remember which one but probably something in High School.

I don't know that anyone I went to school with could have missed learning about Auschwitz.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Nah... Brigette DePape is anything but a Harper groupie, and is more than likely on one of Harper's watch lists for being a Canadian Activist.

Oh I thought I heard her turn over to the CPC

 

[gutter_trash]

He seems young, has some interesting views I'm not sure of, and is part of the Liberal Party. I know it's different, but I have a hard time trusting the Liberals as a whole after the Ontario plants debacle.

People who confuse Provincial Politics with Federal Politics lose lots of credibility when discussing politics.

 

[eBay Huckster]

There are tons of CPC vs NDP contests across the country.

A great deal of these are in rural and working class areas, where the NDP's traditional working class, pro-union history is more appealing than the Liberal Party.

yeah, I meant "weird" insofar as there's basically no discernible corresponding movement between CPC and LPC - it's all these rural and working-class ridings shifting away from the NDP somewhat.

VOTE NDP

Hamilton East / Stoney Creek

mynigga.png

(Though it doesn't seem like that riding's gonna be THAT close - the only reason the margin wasn't wider in 2011 was because of the Liberals' wholesale collapse.)

People who confuse Provincial Politics with Federal Politics lose lots of credibility when discussing politics.

Tell me more about how OCDChewie shouldn't hold Wynne against the federal Liberals when she's literally their most frequent campaigner province-wide. This isn't like the BC Liberals - the Ontario provincial party is prominent enough in the federal campaign.

 

[Mailbox]

People who confuse Provincial Politics with Federal Politics lose lots of credibility when discussing politics.

my family keeps taking about how they really don't want to vote NDP because we're in BC and... well, I think you can guess why and why its ridiculous to think that way

 

[gutter_trash]

if anyone is curious about Harper's hadline Israel stance, it's all for one riding:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/0...man_n_8215344.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Mont-Royal

both Anthony Housefather (LPC) and Robert Libman (CPC) have been mayor of Cote-St-Luc inside the Island of Montreal that has a strong Jewish community.

This riding has been Liberal since Pierre Trudeau first got elected then when Irwin Cotler filled in afterwards

Harper has been banging the drums of support of Israel so hard that his riding is polling +30% for the Conservatives.

The last time that Tories ever won a riding on the Island was in 1988.

The paritculatiry that is interesting is that is the riding with the strong Anybody But Harper counter vote choosing Liberals to block the Conservatives from winning it.

Harper (who hates Pierre Trudeau) really wants to win this riding real real bad.

 

[Apathy]

if anyone is curious about Harper's hadline Israel stance, it's all for one riding:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/0...man_n_8215344.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Mont-Royal

both Anthony Housefather (LPC) and Robert Libman (CPC) have been mayor of Cote-St-Luc inside the Island of Montreal that has a strong Jewish community.

This riding has been Liberal since Pierre Trudeau first got elected then when Irwin Cotler filled in afterwards

Harper has been banging the drums of support of Israel so hard that his riding is polling +30% for the Conservatives.

The last time that Tories ever won a riding on the Island was in 1988.

The paritculatiry that is interesting is that is the riding with the strong Anybody But Harper counter vote choosing Liberals to block the Conservatives from winning it.

Harper (who hates Pierre Trudeau) really wants to win this riding real real bad.

If people are being swayed by his pompous banging of the drum about israel and that the cons are the ones that will support israel, then those same people are idiots. Like Justin said last night, any party, no matter which one, is going to support an israel state. No one is suddenly going to drop support or say they don't exist.

 

[mo60]

if anyone is curious about Harper's hadline Israel stance, it's all for one riding:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/0...man_n_8215344.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Mont-Royal

both Anthony Housefather (LPC) and Robert Libman (CPC) have been mayor of Cote-St-Luc inside the Island of Montreal that has a strong Jewish community.

This riding has been Liberal since Pierre Trudeau first got elected then when Irwin Cotler filled in afterwards

Harper has been banging the drums of support of Israel so hard that his riding is polling +30% for the Conservatives.

The last time that Tories ever won a riding on the Island was in 1988.

The paritculatiry that is interesting is that is the riding with the strong Anybody But Harper counter vote choosing Liberals to block the Conservatives from winning it.

Harper (who hates Pierre Trudeau) really wants to win this riding real real bad.

I wonder if the CPC will cry if they don't win that riding on election day because it looks unlikely when I looked at some recent poll numbers for that riding.

 

[Buba Big Guns]

if anyone is curious about Harper's hadline Israel stance, it's all for one riding:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/0...man_n_8215344.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

Mont-Royal

both Anthony Housefather (LPC) and Robert Libman (CPC) have been mayor of Cote-St-Luc inside the Island of Montreal that has a strong Jewish community.

This riding has been Liberal since Pierre Trudeau first got elected then when Irwin Cotler filled in afterwards

Harper has been banging the drums of support of Israel so hard that his riding is polling +30% for the Conservatives.

The last time that Tories ever won a riding on the Island was in 1988.

The paritculatiry that is interesting is that is the riding with the strong Anybody But Harper counter vote choosing Liberals to block the Conservatives from winning it.

Harper (who hates Pierre Trudeau) really wants to win this riding real real bad.

Thats kinda pathetic he pretty much does the political equivalent of sucking Netanyahu's dick for one riding.

There are way more Arabs and Muslims in general than Jews who support Israel in Canada. You'd think they would be better off having a more even handed approach.

 

[gutter_trash]

I wonder if the CPC will cry if they don't win that riding on election day because it looks unlikely when I looked at some recent poll numbers for that riding.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/nat...ended-at-being-treated-like-a-one-issue-voter

Last Tuesday, campaign workers for Robert Libman, Conservative Party candidate for the riding of Mount Royal, knocked on my door in order to ask whether Libman and Stephen Harper could count on my support. When I told them that I wasn’t really interested, one of them proceeded to tap on the mezuzah affixed to my doorpost and said “Ok, but remember what you are.”

“What you are!” What I was at that moment was so appalled that I told the campaign worker that statements like that were precisely the reason that I would not be voting for Libman.

Libman did later apologize and said his campaign worker’s words were not a reflection of the campaign he is trying to run. I certainly appreciate that.

But why is it that we Jews, especially those living in ridings such as Mount Royal, are seemingly under so much pressure to vote Conservative, and since when have we become one-issue voters?

An interesting read

 

[mo60]

http://montrealgazette.com/news/nat...ended-at-being-treated-like-a-one-issue-voter



An interesting read

It's sad to hear that voter had to deal with that behavior from that candidate. It's good to hear he apologized even if what he did was horrible.If the CPC keep on doing this crap they won;t win that riding and their support will soften in that riding.

 

[UberTag]

I can say with certainty that you can move Ottawa Centre down to Tories aren't competitive. The riding contains a substantial student population from two universities, plus two neighbourhoods that are like our equivalent of the Annex. Their city councillor was a former deputy leader for the Greens. They Conservatives will be lucky to top 20% there.

Toronto-Danforth probably falls into that category too; the Conservatives actually finished behind the Greens there in the not-too-distant past, and they got a whopping 5.4% in the by-election to replace Layton in 2012.

I suspect that Nicket Belt and Sudbury fall into the no chance for the Conservatives too. Neither one has ever come anywhere close to voting Tory; the last time the Conservatives had a close finish in Sudbury was 1984 (when they finished 9 points back in the largest Conservative landslide in history) and consistently finished 20-30 points back in Nickel Belt.

Yeah, with a number of those (I based it off of threehundredeight.com's latest riding polls) the ridings aren't competitive at all. But if they're auto-Liberal or auto-NDP, I still put them in the appropriate column whether the Tories weren't competitive or not because it's simply a non-issue. I only built the separate "Conservatives aren't competitive category" for ridings that could still swing Liberal or NDP to pretty much call out that people can vote for the candidate or party they like the most.

I can't bring myself to do it. The NDP candidate runs a bloody food coop for god sake. He's living the NDP ethos.

The Liberals won there by 20 points in 2011, and that was their closest victory in almost 30 years. I'm absolutely certain you can vote NDP there without any fear of helping out the Conservatives.

Yeah, that riding is going to the Liberals no matter how you vote. Feel free to vote NDP if you like.

I suppose I could have made two additional columns for Auto-NDP (vote Liberal if you like) and Auto-Liberal (vote NDP if you like). Didn't want to make things unnecessarily confusing.

 

[Tiktaalik]

yeah, I meant "weird" insofar as there's basically no discernible corresponding movement between CPC and LPC - it's all these rural and working-class ridings shifting away from the NDP somewhat.

Can we really tell? We don't have per riding polling. It could be that CPC is taking away from NDP in the rural ridings, or maybe the CPC is taking away from the Liberals and NDP in some 905 ridings, but the Liberals taking away from the NDP as well.

 

[BigJonsson]

Harper's Israel stance is for more than Mount Royal

 

[maharg]

Yeah, with a number of those (I based it off of threehundredeight.com's latest riding polls) the ridings aren't competitive at all.

They are not riding polls. They are uniform swing estimations of riding votes based on current polls mapped to 2011 election results. I know I probably sound like I'm nitpicking here, but this is a really important distinction, especially if you're offering advice.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Can we really tell? We don't have per riding polling. It could be that CPC is taking away from NDP in the rural ridings, or maybe the CPC is taking away from the Liberals and NDP in some 905 ridings, but the Liberals taking away from the NDP as well.

You're right that we might not actually be able to tell (short of either riding-level polling or substantially larger samples for income or urban-status crosstabs), but it's at least a semi-educated guess.

Yeah, with a number of those (I based it off of threehundredeight.com's latest riding polls) the ridings aren't competitive at all.

fwiw, as maharg notes, 308 uses a uniform swing (with some adjustments, notably for star candidates) such that we probably shouldn't be giving advice based solely off of its projections.

 

[S-Wind]

He seems young, has some interesting views I'm not sure of, and is part of the Liberal Party. I know it's different, but I have a hard time trusting the Liberals as a whole after the Ontario plants debacle.

Do you know how old Justin Trudeau is?

Guess.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

He's 43.

Do you know how old Harper was when he became PM?

Harper was 46.


Do you know how old Obama was when he became president?

Obama was 49.

 

[Mailbox]

Justin does not look that old....


Scary

 

[GuessMyUserName]

Do you know how old Harper was when he became PM?

Harper was 46.


Do you know how old Obama was when he became president?

Obama was 49.

This is blowing my mind by itself, without the Trudeau comparison

 

[Ecotic]

Do you know how old Justin Trudeau is?

Guess.
.
He's 43.

Do you know how old Harper was when he became PM?

Harper was 46.

Do you know how old Obama was when he became president?

Obama was 49.

Buoyant locks of youthful hair can make people think you're 10 years younger. Not everyone ages at the same rate, looking at Trudeau he definitely seems like someone who ages significantly slower than most. Few people over 40 can still have hair that could belong to a teen boy band member.

 

[Lexxism]

This.
http://www.votetogether.ca/

Good to see that Liberal is ahead against the Cons. Putting some spaces between the two.

 

[gutter_trash]

Do you know how old Justin Trudeau is?

Guess.

.
He's 43.

Do you know how old Harper was when he became PM?

Harper was 46.


Do you know how old Obama was when he became president?

Obama was 49.

Obama was 47
Clinton was 46
JFK was 43
Theodore Roosevelt was 42

 

[jstripes]

He seems young, has some interesting views I'm not sure of, and is part of the Liberal Party. I know it's different, but I have a hard time trusting the Liberals as a whole after the Ontario plants debacle.

This still bugs me. Not the scandal, but the part that everyone forgets.

All three parties promised to cancel the gas plants if they were elected.

The Liberals got elected, cancelled the plants, and then the other two parties did a complete 180, pretended they never promised to do it themselves, and crucified the Liberals for actually going through with it.

The only real scandal is that the plants were proposed in the first place.

 

[Windam]

I dont know how it could be a toss up between the NDP and CPC for your vote. The two parties couldn't be any more different in their ideologies.

Was a joke. Has nobody else seen this commercial? ;______;

In all my years of schooling, I think it only came up once in grade 7 social studies when we were learning about war. Grade 8 was ancient civilisations, grade 9 was about the government, grade 10 was geography and grade 11 was Canadian history. Of course, I know about Auschwitz but they don't really teach about it in school.


Damn, the depressing polls must have messed with GAF's sarcasm detector today.

I hope. Don't worry about me voting stupidly, GAF. If Harper gets back into power, it won't be because of me! Blame the areas outside downtown Toronto and Scarborough.

I don't know about your schooling but here I didn't learn about Auschwitz in high school but by educating myself personally. I did learn a lot about WW2 and the nazi regime in my final year of high school (grade 11 equivalent) through a History class but this was an optional class that wasn't typically given (and definitely not at every high school), I knew of Auschwitz already by the time I took that class but yeah, I bet many people went through all of high school without really learning about that stuff. Sad but true.

It was brought up in almost every history class I've had. Even if not directly, we would hear about the Nazi concentration camps and the shit that went down in elementary or middle school. In my second year of high school we had a survivor come to our school and give an assembly. 10th grade history also heavily covered Nazi atrocities in addition to Canadian history from the WWI era up to the beginning of the 50s.

 

[gutter_trash]

Ford Nation's revenge

 

[Windam]

Ford Nation's revenge

oh god pls no i want to forget about those years

 

[dragonfart28]

oh god pls no i want to forget about those years

It's really striking how much of a parallel there is between these two - both in theme and policy.

 

[The Interrobanger]

Voted

Spoiler

Liberal

last night in Hamilton Center. Wanted to get it out of the way early since I have a kid due to be born any day now.

 

[gabbo]

Voted

Spoiler

Liberal

last night in Hamilton Center. Wanted to get it out of the way early since I have a kid due to be born any day now.

Get that kid signed up asap! Every vote counts
Also, congrats (eventually)

 

[matthewwhatever]

Do you know how old Justin Trudeau is?

Guess.

.

He's 43.

And three kids, too! I don't have any, but as I understand it, those things age you.

Today's Nanos:

Though Ekos is saying they'll have new polls out this weekend, and they're finding a clear & stable CPC lead, so...who knows? Reading through the rest of Graves' recent tweets, it seems he's weighting Conservative-inclined demographics more heavily, based entirely on the fact they're the most likely to vote.

 

[Deleted member 126221]

Reminder: the next prime minister of Canada will be decided on an issue that concerned 2 person. 2. Out of a population of 35 millions.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/niqab-ban-zunera-ishaq-1.3249495

I don't even feel like voting anymore.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

I didn't know CBC had a "The Onion" clone: 2,000 Canadians who still have landlines happy to speak for entire country

Dodo Stouffer (aged 96, of Sydney, Nova Scotia), whose opinion somehow represents literally tens of thousands of Canadians despite the fact that she’s never left her home province or seen a “talkie”, received calls from three separate polling companies in a single afternoon. “I told them all I was voting for Robert Stanfield,” she said, thereby accounting for a significant portion of the “Undecided” category in the latest data crunch.

 

[Tiktaalik]

fwiw, as maharg notes, 308 uses a uniform swing (with some adjustments, notably for star candidates) such that we probably shouldn't be giving advice based solely off of its projections.

They can't even do that right, as South Surrey/White Rock is running Former Surrey Mayor Diane Watts, probably the highest profile star Candidate the Conservatives are running in the entire election, and for quite some time 308 was predicting she'd lose by a major margin. In a riding that has gone Conservative seemingly forever. Even now they only have the Cons winning as a 50% chance.

This is straight up absurd. The previous Conservative candidate was a pylon, and he still won by over 40-50% of the vote. I would be shocked if Watts gets lower than 50% of the vote.

Additionally the 308 projections are wholly based on previous results, so they do not take into account demographic changes. Has your neighbourhood changed quite a bit since 2011? Mine certainly has.

Randomly driving around and looking at sign density is probably a better indicator of anything than 308.

 

[CitizenVectron]

308's riding-level stuff is useless, so I'd just ignore that. And even his national and regional stuff is basically just weighted averages. He's not a statistical genius, he's just a guy who knows how to use the average function in excel and also has a podcast.

My riding is going to go CPC due to Liberal vote splitting (would have gone NDP based on last election's results and redistricting). Local polls show the CPC leading as well, from 5-6% over the NDP. But 308 continues to say the NDP are going to win it. His stuff is just guesswork, mostly. But he's built a career on it now, so good for him I guess.

But he's no Nate Silver.

 

[GSG Flash]

And three kids, too! I don't have any, but as I understand it, those things age you.

Today's Nanos:


Though Ekos is saying they'll have new polls out this weekend, and they're finding a clear & stable CPC lead, so...who knows? Reading through the rest of Graves' recent tweets, it seems he's weighting Conservative-inclined demographics more heavily, based entirely on the fact they're the most likely to vote.

I just don't get it. It's like these Conservative voters won't stop voting Conservative until the country is literally in shambles.

Shit needs to change quick in the next couple of weeks.

I'm also getting tired of this Liberal-NDP infighting, it's as much responsible for the Conservative support as anything else.