This shit is so fucking stupid. Some people in this country, man.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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This shit is so fucking stupid. Some people in this country, man.
gutter_trash
Banned
c'mon, vote for fun.
even when my candidate has no chance of winning in my riding, I still vote for the fun of it
TheRagnCajun
Member
The way things are going it looks like it will be a strategic vote for me, my party of preference doesn't seem to be a contender anymore.
not that the NDP ever had a chance in my Kitchener riding
gutter_trash
Banned
JdM has their own anyalist on projections:
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/elections2015/calcul-electoral
there are tabs for selecting different provinces
mind, these are Pierre Martin's calculations, not sure if he is on the same level as Grenier
Pierre Martin projection: CPC 123 seats, LPC 109, NDP 104, GRN 1, BQ 1
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/elections2015/calcul-electoral
there are tabs for selecting different provinces
mind, these are Pierre Martin's calculations, not sure if he is on the same level as Grenier
Pierre Martin projection: CPC 123 seats, LPC 109, NDP 104, GRN 1, BQ 1
CitizenVectron
Member
Those are complete garbage as well, in terms of riding-level predictions. He has the same problems with taking regional or national polls and applying them evenly. He says NDP will take 2 seats in Regina when they will be very lucky to get 1.
That projection looks to be 5 to 10 seats to high for the NDP right now, but there support may be concentrated enough to net them at least 100 seats on election night. The LPC looks to be a couple seats to low and the cpc seat count as seems to be a bit low.
CitizenVectron
Member
I'd like to take a second to address the issue with Quebec going back to the Bloc over the niqab issue.
Someone in this thread said that the Bloc represents Quebec's interests, and it would be good to have them back as they are a strong voice for Quebec. While that is certainly true on many issues, the biggest problem is that a resurgent Bloc could give Harper latitude to stay in power.
Let's say the NDP totally collapses and the CPC picks up 5-10 more seats in QC and pulls even with the LPC in Ontario, meaning they get around 140-150 seats. A strong minority. If the Bloc gets 30-50 seats in Quebec, this means that the NDP and LPC will not have enough seats to forma majority accord, and would once again need to rely on Bloc support to attempt it, as in 2008. The Bloc supporting Dion's coalition in 2008 is what allowed Harper to stay in power, as the rest of Canada wouldn't tolerate a coalition/accord supported by separatists, even if they aren't formally a part of it.
So while the Bloc may vote similarly to the NDP 90% of the time (niqab issue excepted), a vote for them means effectively giving a greater chance to Stephen Harper.
Someone in this thread said that the Bloc represents Quebec's interests, and it would be good to have them back as they are a strong voice for Quebec. While that is certainly true on many issues, the biggest problem is that a resurgent Bloc could give Harper latitude to stay in power.
Let's say the NDP totally collapses and the CPC picks up 5-10 more seats in QC and pulls even with the LPC in Ontario, meaning they get around 140-150 seats. A strong minority. If the Bloc gets 30-50 seats in Quebec, this means that the NDP and LPC will not have enough seats to forma majority accord, and would once again need to rely on Bloc support to attempt it, as in 2008. The Bloc supporting Dion's coalition in 2008 is what allowed Harper to stay in power, as the rest of Canada wouldn't tolerate a coalition/accord supported by separatists, even if they aren't formally a part of it.
So while the Bloc may vote similarly to the NDP 90% of the time (niqab issue excepted), a vote for them means effectively giving a greater chance to Stephen Harper.
As I said the last time this came up, Nate Silver wouldn't be Nate Silver in Canada as he wouldn't have anywhere near enough data to work with to build a better prediction. So there's no point in dismissing Grenier's skills since I doubt anyone could ever do any better.
CitizenVectron
Member
There are numerous riding-level polls now available, and Grenier is not using them, instead choosing to just push down and spread out the national polls. That alone tells me he lacks proper polling- aggregation technique.
His site is definitely useful in terms of the national averaging (though again, he doesn't really weight the numbers on anything but how recent they are, where Silver can give higher or lower weight based on previous errors by the polling firm, etc).
thelatestmodel
Junior, please.
No kidding. I don't want to get all melodramatic but another Conservative government is going to be absolutely disastrous for Canada.
13 years of Harper. Might as well just call it Harperland right now, it won't be Canada any more after he's done.
gutter_trash
Banned
only Louis Plamondon of Bécancour has a chance of winning for the Bloc.
Duceppe's Laurier riding now has been extended into the Downtown core of the Quartier des Spectacles where there are many high rises of young professionals. Duceppe can't win Laurier
yeah, JdM's projection for Mount-Royal is too generous. The fight between Housefather vs Libman is allot tighter. JdM has the Liberals ahead by 20% when in reality it is tighter
Interesting, I hadn't seen that. Though I can understand an argument against including them, since you have to account for where the difference between those polls and the uniform swing are coming from. I'm not sure you can heuristically redistribute the swing to account for it in any way that would be more meaningful.
This is what I'm talking about when I say that it doesn't matter how good Grenier is, the data is the problem.
As is this. Canadian pollsters often don't even poll in the immediate moment before the election, so attributing error rates to pollsters would be difficult. Furthermore, the fact that they are constantly tweaking their methods and not always reporting on how they do them very well means that, for example, the error of Nanos in 2011 means nothing now. The fact that Nanos has barely even done any election polls at other levels since 2011 makes defining a useful error rate to them even more difficult.
I don't care how much of a genius anyone is, they can't make data out of nothing.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
How can polling work now when no one has phones anyway?
I assume they're not using internet polls, since anyone can just hack them, so what else is there?
I assume they're not using internet polls, since anyone can just hack them, so what else is there?
PumpkinSpice
Banned
More importantly, who would actually take the time to respond to these people? Anytime I get cold calls from weird numbers I answer by immediately saying "Please take me off your list and never call me again."
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That's the thing... if it really is phone based, then your data is basically a) people who have land lines b) people who are at home all the time c) people who have enough time to answer polling questions.
That's worse data than the optional short form census!
killer rin
Member
Families with kids, old people and people who manage to get their cell phone in a database
MyAbsolution
Member
Yeah, every single place I've lived in Canada has been the "you're screwed" riding category for voting. I've never had a vote count in my life.
I really really want proportional representation.
They call both landline and cellular phones now, for the most part. The issue of cell phone users being excluded hasn't been a problem for quite a while.
However, it's harder to determine where someone lives from a cell phone number, which was an important factor in making telephone polling more useful than other kinds.
Some of the pollsters do use online interviews, but they're not just a web poll like you see on a newspaper's website. They're called 'panels', and they basically entice a large group of people to take polls on various things periodically (usually with raffle draws and the like) and then ask a subset of those people a poll based on the demographic information they supply. Some of the pollsters have been using this method for a while and its results are not terribly far off from phone polls. Obviously there is the potential for some selection bias there, but it's much less than you might think.
One of the pollsters just did a very large poll with both methods and found them within the margin of error of each other and wrote up a bunch about the differences between them. I don't recall who though (maybe Ipsos?).
CitizenVectron
Member
Yeah online polls aren't so bad. It's not a poll on a site, it's something they send you an email for.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I wonder if there are people who just answer with nonsense to get the poll done quickly so that they have a chance to win a 100 dollar Amazon card or whatever the incentive is though. lol
(I just had flashbacks to filling out Club Nintendo forms)
But I guess you just assume enough people do these things properly.
(I just had flashbacks to filling out Club Nintendo forms)
But I guess you just assume enough people do these things properly.
When the Conservatives win, it's all the Liberals fault. The NDP were the opposition party so it was supposed to be their turn. A Liberal vote is a vote to keep the Conservatives in power.
/bitter rant.
Lol wut
Simon Belmont
Banned
Some of the Dippers on this board scare me.
pr0cs
Member
Only on this board?
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I like how we went from "Harper's going to gone soon" to "We're fucked" over the course of a month.
The sky is really falling now.
The sky is really falling now.
Seriously. Might as well point out that every conservative government ever has been the NDP's fault with that logic.
If there's a party whose extremes don't scare you, you might be a partisan. Just sayin'.
It's dumb but come on. Some Liberals are still blaming Jack Layton for Stephen Harper. It's pretty standard. PR solves this of course.
gutter_trash
Banned
I can't wait for you guys to go back to your natural 3rd Place.
These smug comments just because Ignatieff completely blew it in 2011 doesn't mean that you erase 150 years of history just because of ONE election the Liberals fell to 3rd place and YOU PEOPLE feel like that the Liberals should disappearjust because of 2011???
You know what? You want your party to have their time to shine? Just Win.
PR this, PR that, PR this, PR that but but but it's the Liberals fault that the NDP doesn't form government????????? hey okay whatever... seriously WHAT everraaaar
You went through your phase McLaughlin, you went through your Mcdonaough Phase, I get it, it hurts.
We went through our Turner phase, we went through Dion, we went throug Iggy. Shit happens
but man, if you guys prone PR as one of your chief platforms. DO NOT complain about the Liberals performing better than the NDP and wish it to be a 2 Party race.
We are not in the US, we have lots of parties to chose from.
So you beat the Liberals one time, nice you did well but don't say it is the Liberals' fault that the NDP are falling back to 3rd place.
the NDP has themselves to blame. They changed from the Left to the Center-Left (where the Liberals historically were), they pandered to Quebec Nationalists but now Quebec Nationalists are throwing tomatoes back because (you can't trust nationalists anyway)
the NDP are 10 points behind in Ontario. Ontario, the seat rich province that gave us a Harper Majority and Ford Nation.
All three party leaders can win, but it is their own bed to make to make the win a win.
Liberals are here to stay, they have been here since Confederation. Deal with it.
eBay Huckster
Member
at this point i'm not gonna be convinced anything is real until the 18th
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
The irony and lack of self-awareness is just too much. Holy shit dude.
"Dippers." Oh man, is that a new thing or has it been around for a while? I've only noticed it since the Alberta election and it's one of those things that immediately switches on the "ignore" feature in my brain.
I was going to post something about strategic voting (I still do wonder if it will get much media coverage -- I've seen a surprising push on social media), but this page makes me think that maybe there's a bit too much rift between core Liberal and NDP supporters...
I'm hoping for a minority -- and one where (presumably) the Liberals and NDP work together well. If the economy numbers are a trend rather than a rattle, and the surplus is real (OK, I really don't believe it is, but if it's remotely close to real), all our next government really needs to do is have a moderately steady hand
I was going to post something about strategic voting (I still do wonder if it will get much media coverage -- I've seen a surprising push on social media), but this page makes me think that maybe there's a bit too much rift between core Liberal and NDP supporters...
I'm hoping for a minority -- and one where (presumably) the Liberals and NDP work together well. If the economy numbers are a trend rather than a rattle, and the surplus is real (OK, I really don't believe it is, but if it's remotely close to real), all our next government really needs to do is have a moderately steady hand
gutter_trash
Banned
so many lefty-lefts pretend to want PR and democracy but they share the same sentiment as the Conservatives wishing the Liberals to disappear so they can have their polarized Left vs Right utopic 2 party climate.
thirst for power overtakes democratic sense.
It just so happens that Liberals are in the way of the NDP as the Liberals are in the way of the Conservatives.
Liberals bring balance avoiding Canada to teeter off the scale too far on the Right or the Left
matthewwhatever
Member
In his defense, riding-level polling is so abysmal and so scarce, weighing it in would be almost impossible. I like that Mainstreet has been polling more heavily in certain ridings, but even then, they don't have enough of a track record to fully trust them.
I'm on the Angus Reid forum list, so I get polled every so often. For the most part, I'd say the Club Nintendo surveys were way more demanding.
I've been using it for almost twenty years, but now that I think about it, I picked it up from a Saskatchewanian who'd moved to Ottawa. I've always figured it's the equivalent of calling Liberals and Conservatives Grits and Tories.
gutter_trash
Banned
check comments on rabble
CitizenVectron
Member
We're not on rabble. PR would likely lead to increased NDP numbers of course (since you don't need to strategically vote any more), but it would be beneficial to all parties as they would no longer have to go against their bases. It would also permanently destroy the Bloc.
You know Gutter, I really have to ask. Why are you so unflinchingly Liberal? I'm just trying to understand your mindset. What have the Liberals done for you? What did they do to garner your total loyalty?
Don't take any offense from this please. I'm honestly curious
The Bloc would probably be somewhat saved by this, actually, from where they are now. They'd almost certainly get a handful of seats. But their ability to pull out outsized numbers like in the 90s would be destroyed, as it would for everyone else.
As far as I can tell it's basically down to the fact that they are the only party that takes a completely exclusionary approach to separatists. The fact that this approach is broken and only makes them stronger is bizarre, but what can you do.
Taking rabble seriously as indicative of NDP supporters would be like me taking you seriously as representative of Liberals.
gutter_trash
Banned
It's a Montreal thing. I understand that out West in BC or some other parts of the country doesn't have the same attachment but the Liberals is the party that defends Canadians being Canadians as equals in a Province bent on ''special powers''
the Liberals do not believe that any Province deserves to be more ''special'' than any other because an individual Canadian's equality is more important that Provincial Premier's desire of obtain ''special powers''
a Canadian has the right to be equal anywhere, in any province, in any city of this country.
Mulroney tried to appease the demands of natioanlsits, and failed. Mulcair for eletoral reasons is trying to take the same path Mulroney did. Mulcair will faill where Mulroney failed
CitizenVectron
Member
The Liberals don't really defend that. After all, why do I in SK have to wait 9 months to see a neurologist when someone in AB will wait 3 weeks?
It's because Canada is federalist (in the governmental sense) and has provincial powers. There is no way to make all Canadians equal in the eyes of the government and its services since by law many services are rendered and managed on a provincial basis.
CitizenVectron
Member
True they would always win seats, but they would max out at something like 20, where the Greens would be from 20-40.
gutter_trash
Banned
now you are changing the subject on the disparity between services provided from one Province to another.
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