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[mo60]

What is the endgame for the niqab dogwhistling? It doesn't seem to be helping the Conservatives much outside Quebec, and inside even if they "surge" they'll get hardly any seats.

Is it just to bring back the Bloc? I mean if the Conservatives can win a minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power it'll be a lot harder for the other parties to justify a coalition.

I'm sorry to say this but the bloc is not coming back even with this issue. They may get a mini revival from this, but it won't be enough to crush the NDP or destroy them in Quebec,

 

[Vamphuntr]

NDP is taking a beating in QC. New Le Devoir/TVA/JDM poll from Léger gives NDP 28%, Liberals 24%, Bloc 24%, CPC 21%

For Francophones only it's now

Bloc 30%, NDP 27%, CPC 22%, Liberals 18%

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/451591/sondage-le-npd-perd-encore-des-plumes

Barely alive you mean. I don't expect the bloc at this point to get more than 5 seats.

The projection from Léger's poll gives them 14 with that poll results

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/10/02/une-lutte-a-deux-se-dessine

Total NDP collapse and Libs are as unpopular as ever with Francophones.

 

[mo60]

NDP is taking a beating in QC. New Le Devoir/TVA/JDM poll from Léger gives NDP 28%, Liberals 24%, Bloc 24%, CPC 21%

For Francophones only it's now

Bloc 30%, NDP 27%, CPC 22%, Liberals 18%

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/451591/sondage-le-npd-perd-encore-des-plumes



The projection from Léger's poll gives them 14 with that poll results

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/10/02/une-lutte-a-deux-se-dessine

Total NDP collapse and Libs are as unpopular as ever with Francophones.

37 seats isn't bad for the NDP in Quebec even though some polls put them around the 40-50 range right now. So with this poll they should lose 8 seats overall.Like I said I don't think the bloc is going to recover much now. I could see them get 0-5 and possibly 5-10 seats this election in Quebec.

Also about tonight's debate. I hope Mulcair hammers Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau(but not too much) and Gilles Duceppe and shows Quebecois that reviving the bloc will just make it harder for them to kick out the conservatives.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

If the Bloc keeps up this trend they could go back to being a real force in the next Parliament.

 

[gutter_trash]

NiquaBloc Quebecois on the rise among Francophones.

Franco: Bloc 30%, NPD 27%, des Cons 22%, PLC 18%,

Non-Franco: PLC; 45%, des Cons 18%, NPD 28%, Bloc 6%??? lol

Liberals rule non-francos (Montreal)

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Says here 2% support for the Bloc among non-francos in Quebec. That's crazy.

Edit: Holy crap at that Liberal dominance in Atlantic Canada:

Only 14% for the conservatives. It'd be hilarious if they come 10 seats short of getting a majority due to their fucking EI changes in Atlantic Canada.

 

[mo60]

Says here 2% support for the Bloc among non-francos in Quebec. That's crazy.

Edit: Holy crap at that Liberal dominance in Atlantic Canada:



Only 14% for the conservatives. It'd be hilarious if they come 10 seats short of getting a majority due to their fucking EI changes in Atlantic Canada.

I wouldn't be surprised if they came 30 to 40 seats short of a majority this time.

 

[mo60]

The jounomontreal also has a pretty good article on the fight between the Liberals and Conservatives in Canada.
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/10/02/une-lutte-a-deux-se-dessine

 

[Azih]

If the Liberals form government with the help of the NDP (a big if), I would say reform is likely, but probably some form of preferential/ranked or runoff ballot, not PR.

I really doubt the NDP would accept AV/IRV.

Of course you can have preferentia/ranked ballots and PR at the same time. They're not mutually exclusive concepts which is why the whole 'ranked ballot' terminology is so dumb. Ballot design is a mechanism, not a system.

 

[crimzonflame]

Why did the NDP start dropping in the polls?

 

[mo60]

Why did NDP start dropping in the polls?

The Niqab and the Liberals revival. They also have been running an okay campaign with a lot of flaws that also dropped their numbers.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Why did NDP start dropping in the polls?

People will analyze this greatly after the election is over, but it's probably a combination of the niqab issue, soft-CPC voters going back, and Trudeau emerging as the ABC leader.

 

[elty]

I think Liberal picked up some steam after they announced they are willing to run a deficit. Then NDP said something correct and obvious "Women can wear whatever they want" and their Quebec base doesn't like that.

It looks like Ontario is going to gift Harper a majority, again. I hope Muclair self implode next week (because it doesn't look likely the other two will). A 50-25-25 split in Ontario means Harper for 4 years.

 

[mo60]

I think Liberal picked up some steam after they announced they are willing to run a deficit. Then NDP said something correct and obvious "Women can wear whatever they want" and their Quebec base doesn't like that.

It looks like Ontario is going to gift Harper a majority, again. I hope Muclair self implode next week (because it doesn't look likely the other two will). A 50-25-25 split in Ontario means Harper for 4 years.

Even with Ontario it's very unlikely the conservatives get a majority.They are going to get hammered hard in Atlantic Canada and lose a lot of seats in Atlantic Canada.

 

[AuthenticM]

I cannot believe the conservatives may win the elections again. After ten fucking years.

We need to get rid of the first-past-the-post system.

 

[gutter_trash]

I think Liberal picked up some steam after they announced they are willing to run a deficit. Then NDP said something correct and obvious "Women can wear whatever they want" and their Quebec base doesn't like that.

It looks like Ontario is going to gift Harper a majority, again. I hope Muclair self implode next week (because it doesn't look likely the other two will). A 50-25-25 split in Ontario means Harper for 4 years.

I think it's more a matter of consensus building up behind that Anti-Harper vote betting on one horse over the other

 

[PumpkinSpice]

I think Liberal picked up some steam after they announced they are willing to run a deficit. Then NDP said something correct and obvious "Women can wear whatever they want" and their Quebec base doesn't like that.

It looks like Ontario is going to gift Harper a majority, again. I hope Muclair self implode next week (because it doesn't look likely the other two will). A 50-25-25 split in Ontario means Harper for 4 years.

I don't see how -- 308's latest seat projection has them down 16 seats in Ontario. That'd be enough to lose their majority in today's parliament. Obviously it's a bit weird given the seat # change.

 

[elty]

I don't see how -- 308's latest seat projection has them down 16 seats in Ontario. That'd be enough to lose their majority in today's parliament. Obviously it's a bit weird given the seat # change.

Doesn't 308 thought it would be a minority last time? At the end Cons pulled a few percentage more and settled it. Same thing happened in UK where Labour was neck to neck and everyone thought it will be another minority, but at the end Cons there pulled a few more %. Not to mention both Cons are orchestrated by the same Australian dude.

Also I am surprised the lack of NDP advertisement. I kept hearing how NDP and some union group planned to launch a major ad offensive after Labour day, but I didn't really notice anything. There are some ad from the Liberals though.

 

[mo60]

Doesn't 308 thought it would be a minority last time? At the end Cons pulled a few percentage more and settled it. Same thing happened in UK where Labour was neck to neck and everyone thought it will be anyother minority, but at the end Cons there pulled a few more %. Not to mention both Cons are orchestrated by the same Australian dude.

I don't think the wizard of OZ will actually make it so they get another majority again. The guy has lost elections before and he can still lose this one even though we are running out of time.

 

[SRG01]

Why did the NDP start dropping in the polls?

I think gutter mentioned this earlier already, but I think it's partly because various NDP's policies seem to be more applicable to provincial politics (ie. Geared towards Quebec, especially with things like the daycare policies) than the rest of Canada. The irony behind this was that the NDP is now slipping in Quebec as well.

 

[gutter_trash]

I think gutter mentioned this earlier already, but I think it's partly because various NDP's policies seem to be more applicable to provincial politics (ie. Geared towards Quebec, especially with things like the daycare policies) than the rest of Canada. The irony behind this was that the NDP is now slipping in Quebec as well.

NDP was the Bloc's main competitor in Quebec for soft nationalist from the Left flank.
But Nationalists in Quebec are not exlusisily Left Wing, the old Crediste and Union Natonale rural Right Wingers still exist in some pockets and that is where Stephen Harper is hitting hard.

You have NDP candidates who won in 2011 in rural Right nationalist ridings in Quebec. Not because of the party but because of Jack.

Harper is going back to take his 5 or 6 seats that he lost to the NDP in 2011.

The Bloc is doing the same but from thte Left Flank

as for Liberals. The Liberals in Quebec are the party of pro-Canada Fedearlist, minorities, immigrants, non-francophones and anglopones and very Montreal centric.
The Liberal base that was fractured in 2011 is rebuilding back to 2008 levels or 2006 levels.

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

Saw my local NDP candidate outside the Skytrain station on my way to work today. This is the third time I've seen her since the election started. That's commendable.

I think the worst-case scenario would be a Conservative minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power. It'll be 2008 all over again.

 

[mo60]

Saw my local NDP candidate outside the Skytrain station on my way to work today. This is the third time I've seen her since the election started. That's commendable.

I think the worst-case scenario would be a Conservative minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power. It'll be 2008 all over again.

Both the Liberals and NDP are expected to get 170+ seats combined right now and I expect it to stay that way for the rest of the election.

 

[Stet]

If the Bloc keeps up this trend they could go back to being a real force in the next Parliament.

 

[gutter_trash]

Conservatives only win Majorities when Liberals do badly.

When NDP did its best and Liberals did their worst, it gave us a Conservative Majority.

basic math

Liberal surge = Conservative Cock Block

 

[mo60]

Conservatives only win Majorities when Liberals do badly.

When NDP did its best and Liberals did their worst, it gave us a Conservative Majority.

basic math

Liberal surge = Conservative Cock Block

Like I said before it's a team effort that is pretty much preventing the conservatives from getting a majority this time. Don't pin it on just a liberal revival that is keeping the conservatives at a minority right now.

 

[thelatestmodel]

Today's Nanos:



Not good for the NDP. Starting to look like the bad ol' days.

I am completely fine with this. I don't care whether we end up with NDP or Liberal, as long as the two don't split their support so evenly that the Conmen win.

Fine, Liberal it is from here on out. Just keep following the news and do whatever's best to heave Steve.

 

[CitizenVectron]

By definition the CPC will win if the Liberals do poorly...and anyone winning means other parties do poorly. The NDP could also win if the others do poorly. They aren't likely to this election, of course.

 

[mo60]

By definition the CPC will win if the Liberals do poorly...and anyone winning means other parties do poorly. The NDP could also win if the others do poorly. They aren't likely to this election, of course.

Isn't it possible still for the Liberals to do good while the Conservatives still end up with a majority?

 

[firehawk12]

The NDP will have to regress to being a Quebec party, which I assumed would happen after they swept the province last time.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Isn't it possible still for the Liberals to do good while the Conservatives still end up with a majority?

Yes, depending on definition of good of course.

 

[CitizenVectron]

The NDP will have to regress to being a Quebec party, which I assumed would happen after they swept the province last time.

It actually looks like it could be the opposite, with some gains in BC, AB, and SK, and lose a lot of ground in QC.

 

[gutter_trash]

Isn't it possible still for the Liberals to do good while the Conservatives still end up with a majority?

never in Canadian (Federal) history

Since WW2, the Conservatives only formed Majority 3 times. And in all three times were when Liberals perfomed like shit. 1984, 1988 and 2011.

aside that, Tories rarely formed majorities.

Ignatieff's weak sauce combined with Layton's Orange Wave made it fertile ground for Harper to win a majority in 2011.

Now that Liberals are boncing back, they have a chance at a minority

 

[PumpkinSpice]

never in Canadian (Federal) history

Since WW2, the Conservatives only formed Majority 3 times. And in all three times were when Liberals perfomed like shit. 1984, 1988 and 2011.

Also 1958.

 

[CitizenVectron]

never in Canadian (Federal) history

Since WW2, the Conservatives only formed Majority 3 times. And in all three times were when Liberals perfomed like shit. 1984, 1988 and 2011.

aside that, Tories rarely formed majorities.

Ignatieff's weak sauce combined with Layton's Orange Wave made it fertile ground for Harper to win a majority in 2011.

Now that Liberals are boncing back, they have a chance at a minority

Whenever people win majorities in Canada they tend to be fairly strong because of the way FPTP works. You could also say that Liberals only win majorities when the PCs/CPC do poorly. But the PCs and LPC also only win majorities when the NDP do poorly as well. I don't see the point you are trying to make, the pattern holds for all parties in all situations.

 

[gutter_trash]

Also 1958.

oops, missed that one

 

[Tiktaalik]

Liberals have more for growth at the moment than NDP

The Liberals have more momentum than the NDP at the moment no question, but I'd strongly contest the notion that they have the most room for growth. Judging from the fact that the last few days of Liberal polling have showed no real change, I'd argue that the Liberals may have already reached their ceiling or at least be near it.

We've known since the start of the election that the Liberal party has a woefully inefficient vote when compared to the NDP. Essentially too much of their support is concentrated in too few of areas. They're strong in Ontario, Montreal and Atlantic Canada, but too weak in other areas. In contrast from the 2011 results the NDP was #2 in the most amount of ridings, so they're competitive in the most amount of ridings. Of the two parties the NDP is competitive in the most amount of ridings and has the most room to grow.

A number of analysts have crunched the numbers and found that while it would not be unreasonably hard for the Liberals to exceed the NDP and get into second place (we're likely there already) it would be very, very difficult for the Liberals to win a Minority Government due to the poor way in which their support is distributed. A professional political strategist on the Strategists podcast did the math(podcast link) and found that the Liberals would need to have a 6% lead over anyone else before they'd get a Minority. They are pretty far away from that right now.

This blog post goes through some of the numbers and describes why the math isn't in the Liberal Party's favour.

While the Liberals are up 10-12 points from their 2011 vote-share of 18.9% nationally, outside Quebec that's mainly come out of the hide of the Conservatives, putting more ROC seats into play across the country for the NDP. Counterintuitive, if your focus has been on Ontario to date in this campaign, but true nonetheless. The benefits accrue to the orange team mainly in BC, but a smattering as well across the Prairies, and in Northern and Southwestern Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberal gains in vote-share as of Sunday night had come equally out of the Bloc and the NDP.

The Liberals are only leading regionally in Atlantic Canada, and (mostly) in Ontario, though they have some other concentrated pockets of support: in anglo- and allo-Quebec ridings, Winnipeg, and upscale Vancouver. Even in Ontario, Liberal support is concentrated in the 905, 416, Halton-Peel, and the National Capital Regions. There are plenty of seats to be won for them there, to be sure, but not enough to get over the minority government threshold of 120 or so, especially when they are shut out of large swaths of rural Ontario.

The Liberals are not competitive in over half of the 338 seats in the new House of Commons. Even if they kept every current seat, and completely ran the table in i) NDP-Liberal races, ii) Conservative-Liberal races, and iii) three-way races, they would still fall well short of the magic 170 to secure even a slim majority.

By contrast, were everything to go their ways, either the Conservatives or NDP could each conceivably be competitive in around 60% of the seats, albeit not at the same time.
Racking up larger and larger margins in the Atlantic, anglo- and allo-Quebec ridings, the 905, north Toronto, and Halton-Peel doesn't win the Liberals more seats. By the same token, even at 36% in Quebec with a split opposition, the NDP could still expect to leave the province with the majority of seats. In 2008, for example, the Bloc won two-thirds of the seats in Quebec with just 38% of the vote (against 24L, 22L, 12N). Three years later it won 4 seats with 24%. As of Sunday, it stood at 16.4%.

It's not enough for the NDP vote to collapse in Quebec and BC. That vote needs to then move over to the Liberal Party.

This is the part I'm skeptical about, and why I question how much further the Liberal Party can grow from here. In these two provinces in many ridings it's much more likely the support from a failing NDP will go to the Bloc and Conservatives.

 

[gutter_trash]

Center-Left voters: NDP split with Liberals
Center-Right voters: Conservatives split with Liberals
Right Quebec Nationalists voters: Conservatives split with Bloc Quebecois
Left Quebec Nationalists voters : NDP splits with Bloc Quebecois.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Center-Left voters: NDP split with Liberals
Center-Right voters: Conservatives split with Liberals
Right Quebec Nationalists voters: Conservatives split with Bloc Quebecois
Left Quebec Nationalists voters : NDP splits with Bloc Quebecois.

You need travel in Canada beyond Toronto and Quebec.

 

[pr0cs]

You need travel in Canada beyond Toronto and Quebec.

I've heard that those are the only important parts of Canada anyway. Anything else is really just no man's land tbh

 

[Tiktaalik]

Holy Christ is this Conservative Party for fucking real?

Tories promise RCMP tip line for people to report neighbours for ‘barbaric cultural practices’


OTTAWA — Campaigning Conservatives continued to press the hot buttons Friday, focusing on what they call “barbaric cultural practices” and Muslim facial coverings amid evidence the tight, three-way election race may be starting to break loose.

Chris Alexander, the Conservative immigration minister who’s facing a tough Liberal challenge in his Toronto-area riding, held a news conference Friday to remind the electorate of last November’s “Zero Tolerance for Barbaric Cultural Practices Act,” and to promise even more government resources if re-elected, including a proposed RCMP tip line where people could report “information about incidents of barbaric cultural practices in Canada.”

Alexander directly linked the message to a proposed Conservative ban on women wearing facial coverings at citizenship ceremonies, the so-called niqab debate that targets a tiny subset of Muslims and has roiled Internet comment boards with hate-filled, racist rants.

“We need to stand up for our values,” said Alexander. “We need to do that in citizenship ceremonies. We need to do that to protect women and girls from forced marriage and other barbaric practices.”

In Halifax, Conservative Jason Kenney stoutly defended his party’s policy — since rejected by the courts — of banning the wearing of niqabs at citizenship ceremonies.

“Let’s be clear,” said the former Conservative immigration minister who nows holds the defence portfolio. “This practice of face covering reflects a misogynistic view of women which is grounded in medieval tribal culture.”

Kenney also defended the government’s move to strip convicted terrorists of their citizenship — while saying the punishment will not be extended to other criminal acts.

“We will not be pursuing any other legal or statutory grounds for citizenship revocation, let me be absolutely clear about that,” he stressed.

The heated campaign debate over “values” and religious accommodation appears to have spurred more than just anti-Islamic rhetoric in Quebec.

A pair of teens tore the headscarf from a pregnant woman in Montreal this week, causing her to fall on the ground. The incident prompted the Quebec national assembly to pass a unanimous motion Thursday condemning hate speech and violence against all Quebecers.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau hold the view that women should be able to choose how they dress, which is likely to again draw fire from Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, as it did in the first French-language debate a week ago.

 

[TheRealTalker]

Another Con government

all the stuff he did in his last reigns but now for even another term

I can't even post how sad I am right now and people who will likely be responsible for voting for him... well I hope they are happy for being so selfish.

 

[mo60]

I've heard that those are the only important parts of Canada anyway. Anything else is really just no man's land tbh

I would be insane if a political party won an election without Ontario and Quebec one day.What will gutter_trash say about that since he's so Ontario and Quebec focused always.There have been instances in the past were political parties got official opposition status without either Ontario and Quebec if I recall.

 

[mo60]

Another Con government

all the stuff he did in his last reigns but now for even another term

I can't even post how sad I am right now and people who will likely be responsible for voting for him... well I hope they are happy for being so selfish.

If he gets a minority it's unlikely he can pull a lot of the stuff he pulled under a majority.

 

[TheRealTalker]

If he gets a minority it's unlikely he can pull a lot of the stuff he pulled under a majority.

hopefully it is a minority but the fact that this is now our best option leaves a disgusting taste in my mouth

 

[explodet]

Holy Christ is this Conservative Party for fucking real?

I guess Lynton Crosby is now defining the policies for the Harper Government.

 

[maharg]

If he gets a minority it's unlikely he can pull a lot of the stuff he pulled under a majority.

Harper pulled off plenty when he had a minority. There's very little difference, really. He just rams everything through as a confidence vote knowing that voters will blame the opposition party who votes it down if it results in an election. And it works because our democracy is basically no longer functional. Especially if the bloc comes back.

Congrats, gutter. You got what you wanted I guess, a resurgent Bloc and a conservative majority in the cards again. You must be so happy. Your ridiculous scorched earth approach to national unity wins the day again.

 

[killer rin]

Harper pulled off plenty when he had a minority. There's very little difference, really. He just rams everything through as a confidence vote knowing that voters will blame the opposition party who votes it down if it results in an election. And it works because our democracy is basically no longer functional. Especially if the bloc comes back.

Congrats, gutter. You got what you wanted I guess, a resurgent Bloc and a conservative majority in the cards again. You must be so happy.

It would be nice if the opposition called his bluff and said 'coalition'. Harper may try what he has always done, doesn't mean he will be successful this time since everyone is pissed off at him

 

[TheRealTalker]

here is a good video explaining how crummy our election system is and how to do strategic voting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6__sMVTEZc

 

[mo60]

Harper pulled off plenty when he had a minority. There's very little difference, really. He just rams everything through as a confidence vote knowing that voters will blame the opposition party who votes it down if it results in an election. And it works because our democracy is basically no longer functional. Especially if the bloc comes back.

Congrats, gutter. You got what you wanted I guess, a resurgent Bloc and a conservative majority in the cards again. You must be so happy. Your ridiculous scorched earth approach to national unity wins the day again.

Wouldn't be so sure about that yet?Some polls like Nanos show the bloc in decline again right now.