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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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squall23

Member
Eh I would still buy Canadian dairy and meat, poultry and fish over other countries'.

There actually is a pretty big difference in terms of taste among other things.

After Canadian, I would buy American since it's almost the same.

You'll understand better if you've lived outside of Canada.
Depends on product. For example, no way I would prefer Canadian seafood over Hokkaido seafood. Their milk is much better too.
 
Well, that settles it. I was going for NDP, but Tom's lackluster performance+Justin's speech has me swung. I only really had a 1% difference when taking those surveys, so it's not a hard switch.
 

squall23

Member
Well I live in Sendai, but Vancouver salmon in addition to Atlantic Canada cod and sardines are god tier for me.
I currently live in Hong Kong. Literally the only things I would prefer in Canada over anything else is Alberta beef in regards to the price to quality ratio and geoduck.
 

UberTag

Member
At some point I should have a look at all the ridings and cobble together some predictions for Metro Vancouver. It'll be fun on election night for when I'm completely wrong.
We should all put forward our predictions -- not just for our local areas, but for the whole country. It might be neat to see how good our collective prognostication skills are.
Well, let's start with British Columbia and work our way east. We can have a full sweep of the country completed by Election Day.

CONSERVATIVE

Abbotsford
Cariboo—Prince George
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
Chilliwack—Hope
Cloverdale—Langley City
Kelowna—Lake Country
Langley—Aldergrove
North Okanagan—Shuswap
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies

NEW DEMOCRAT

Burnaby South
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
New Westminster—Burnaby
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway
Victoria

LIBERAL

North Vancouver
Surrey—Newton
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

GREEN

Saanich—Gulf Islands

BATTLEGROUND

Leaning Conservative

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Leaning NDP

Courtenay—Alberni
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke
North Island—Powell River
Port Moody—Coquitlam
South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Leaning Liberal

Delta
South Surrey—White Rock
Steveston—Richmond East

Too Close to Call (my soft prediction in brackets)

Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal)
Fleetwood—Port Kells (Conservative)
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Conservative)
Kootenay—Columbia (Conservative)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Surrey Centre (Liberal)

SEAT COUNT

Conservative = 9 {12}
NDP = 8 {13}
Liberal = 7 {10}
Green = 1
Undecided = 6

So, based on the above, I would project 15 total seats for the Tories, 13 each for the NDP and Liberals and Elizabeth May holding her seat for the Greens. The NDP's support is the softest so that can easily break differently... most of those soft NDP ridings would swing to the Conservatives if they fail to hold. As for the really tight races, I'm leaning Conservative in ridings that have traditionally always gone to the Tories and leaning to the Liberals in major urban centers based on Trudeau's recent momentum.
 
Today's Nanos:
image.jpg

Haven't looked at the regionals yet, but that looks bleak for the NDP.
 

maharg

idspispopd
So that Mainstreet poll showing something interesting in Alberta? It's not much -- just that the Liberals might, possibly win a few seats. The Conservatives are still polling at 63% overall in the province.

The interesting thing there to me is a pretty substantial drop for the NDP from previous alberta polling/regional subsamples. Particularly in Edmonton.

It does seem as if the Liberals are managing to create a consensus among ABC voters, which is good. I just hope there's enough left of the NDP vote to give us a minority government and let the NDP put pressure on for PR.
 

Entropia

No One Remembers
Today's Nanos:


Haven't looked at the regionals yet, but that looks bleak for the NDP.

Yikes.

I don't know what it is, media influence? But I'm losing interest in the NDP. I'm leaning very strongly towards Liberal now.

My riding is currently Conservative. The MP Ed Holder who is the Minister of State skipped out on the riding debate a week or so ago.

Hoping that he doesn't get re-elected back in.
 
Yikes.

I don't know what it is, media influence? But I'm losing interest in the NDP. I'm leaning very strongly towards Liberal now.

My riding is currently Conservative. The MP Ed Holder who is the Minister of State skipped out on the riding debate a week or so ago.

Hoping that he doesn't get re-elected back in.

Isn't that the Conservative strategy ATM? Skipping debates to avoid saying stupid shit to get ripped apart on social media?
 
the tpp deal was reached... bye bye Canada.

Important to note that it'll be weeks until the full text is released and months after that before it's ratified. Having this monstrosity of a deal reached during an election instead of last year is probably the best timing for this thing.

Say nothing about or be vague



Which code for they are going to let it through then do nothing about it

But i sm still voting Liberal

He's said he wants to "seriously review it" but who knows what that means.

Well, nobody except Harper and his goons know what's in the deal. Everything the public and opposition know is what's been leaked and no one's going to know what's in the final deal for a while. Being cautious or vague about supporting the TPP doesn't imply they'll just let is pass in this case.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Okay can someone give me a run down of what the TPP does? Is this a bad thing for Canada?
We don't know because the only thing that's been made public about it is that wikileaks thing a few months ago.
People are assuming the dairy industry is fucked though, along with other IP protections and whatnot.

Say nothing about or be vague



Which code for they are going to let it through then do nothing about it

But i sm still voting Liberal
Yeah, pretty much. I think the Liberals are in the "do nothing, offend no one" part of the campaign.
 
On tpptttpppp i have no sympathy for dairy farmers.

In Quebec, the dairy cartel does price fixing, take subsidies, they block products from Europe like cheese.

Why is 2L of Milk is 60 to 70% cheaper in Europe.? While the price of dairy here rises?

It doesn't make cents

So i won't shed a tear for the dairy cartel
 
Imports representing roughly 3.25 per cent of Canada's current annual dairy production will be allowed, as well as 2.3 per cent for eggs, 2.1 per cent for chicken, 2 per cent for turkey and 1.5 per cent for hatching eggs.

Doesn't sound like dairy's taking a big hit on this. We'll get some imported fancy cheese but that's about it.

Edit: I'm starting to think it's really stupid of the NDP to come out against this without knowing what's in it. It's just setting themselves up for a fall. There could be something scary we don't know about yet, and it'd be good to see a lot of people read through the deal thoroughly, but so far what I'm reading doesn't sound bad.
 
On tpptttpppp i have no sympathy for dairy farmers.

In Quebec, the dairy cartel does price fixing, take subsidies, they block products from Europe like cheese.

Why is 2L of Milk is 60 to 70% cheaper in Europe.? While the price of dairy here rises?

It doesn't make cents

So i won't shed a tear for the dairy cartel

Cartel?
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Doesn't sound like dairy's taking a big hit on this. We'll get some imported fancy cheese but that's about it.
"In order to qualify as a tariff-free vehicle under the TPP, 45 per cent of the net cost of the vehicle will need to originate in TPP countries — not just North America. For auto parts, 45 per cent of core parts and priority parts identified by the Canadian industry, and 40 per cent of the net cost of other parts, will need to originate in TPP countries."

I assume that means a hit to manufacturing. Still interested to see what patents will look like.
 
"In order to qualify as a tariff-free vehicle under the TPP, 45 per cent of the net cost of the vehicle will need to originate in TPP countries — not just North America. For auto parts, 45 per cent of core parts and priority parts identified by the Canadian industry, and 40 per cent of the net cost of other parts, will need to originate in TPP countries."

I assume that means a hit to manufacturing. Still interested to see what patents will look like.

Most of our car manufacturing has been moved out to Mexico due to NAFTA. I'm not sure what little is left is worth saving.

Sucks for Mexico I guess but maybe they got something out of this.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Supply management really is the vilest sort of policy.

It's like the opposite of the niqab and marijuana debates in terms of amount of attention it gets relative to it's importance.
 

Snowdrift

Member
I can't, in good faith, vote for a party that opposes the TPP. Its a red line issue for me.

I'm extremely disappointed that the government caved on supply management again. Canadians need cheaper bagged milk...
 

SRG01

Member
You guys are pretty passionate about your milk...

It's a daily staple, along with eggs, that hasn't seen meaningful price differences for as long as I have lived.

Having said that, I have huge skepticism as to whether TPP will actually benefit consumers. Milk products from TPP countries won't be substantially lower than existing prices because they'll price it at what the market will bear -- which is the current inflated price. Same with the auto industry -- prices of parts will go down, but those cost savings won't be passed onto the consumer.
 
Yes. a Cartel. a powerful lobby

Travel to Europe, spend 3 weeks there, come back and ask yourself, why the hell is local food in Canada 3x more expensive than price of local food in Europe?

yeah tansport yeah but our gas prices are lower than in Europe

I see
if Spanish and French Milk is good enough for them at a more affordable price, I support competition the brings that Cartel controlled price down in Canada.


yeah but then Canada is huge

we should rather have provinces compete with each other
edit: Nevermind I just read up on it
 
Inter-Provincial restrictions is the stupidest thing inside Canada.

like the New Brunswick man getting arrested by the RCMP for bringing cases of beer from Quebec back into New Brunswick
 
So competition is good, but only within a country ?

what I meant was first loosing our trade deals with provinces before we think of going international

Since we have so many restrictions form Provinces trading with one another in order to nullify competition and risk for other province farmers and yet we are going international without freeing these restrcitions first

we need to homogenize our market first before we go in since theoretically we won't be one united front if not
 
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