At some point I should have a look at all the ridings and cobble together some predictions for Metro Vancouver. It'll be fun on election night for when I'm completely wrong.
We should all put forward our predictions -- not just for our local areas, but for the whole country. It might be neat to see how good our collective prognostication skills are.
Well, let's start with British Columbia and work our way east. We can have a full sweep of the country completed by Election Day.
CONSERVATIVE
Abbotsford
Cariboo—Prince George
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
Chilliwack—Hope
Cloverdale—Langley City
Kelowna—Lake Country
Langley—Aldergrove
North Okanagan—Shuswap
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
NEW DEMOCRAT
Burnaby South
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Nanaimo—Ladysmith
New Westminster—Burnaby
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway
Victoria
LIBERAL
North Vancouver
Surrey—Newton
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
GREEN
Saanich—Gulf Islands
BATTLEGROUND
Leaning Conservative
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Leaning NDP
Courtenay—Alberni
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke
North Island—Powell River
Port Moody—Coquitlam
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Leaning Liberal
Delta
South Surrey—White Rock
Steveston—Richmond East
Too Close to Call (my soft prediction in brackets)
Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal)
Fleetwood—Port Kells (Conservative)
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Conservative)
Kootenay—Columbia (Conservative)
Richmond Centre (Liberal)
Surrey Centre (Liberal)
SEAT COUNT
Conservative = 9 {12}
NDP = 8 {13}
Liberal = 7 {10}
Green = 1
Undecided = 6
So, based on the above, I would project 15 total seats for the Tories, 13 each for the NDP and Liberals and Elizabeth May holding her seat for the Greens. The NDP's support is the softest so that can easily break differently... most of those soft NDP ridings would swing to the Conservatives if they fail to hold. As for the really tight races, I'm leaning Conservative in ridings that have traditionally always gone to the Tories and leaning to the Liberals in major urban centers based on Trudeau's recent momentum.