gutter_trash
Banned
me too, the change of boundaries now includes the The Quartier-des-Spectacles and Chinatown which weren't part of it in 2011
you see that rectangular portion that sticks out at the South-West, that's what I am talking about.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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me too, the change of boundaries now includes the The Quartier-des-Spectacles and Chinatown which weren't part of it in 2011
you see that rectangular portion that sticks out at the South-West, that's what I am talking about.
BigJonsson
Member
Tory lost his seat when he was the leader of the Ontario PCs.....to Kathleen Wynne
Ignatieff was pretty terrible and he also ran a pretty terrible campaign. Mulcair is a lot better than ignatieff despite running an okay to mediocre campaign.Duceppe also suffered the same fate as ignatieff last time and it's mostly because no one cared about him and his party. I expect that duceppe will be the only leader without a seat on election night.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Nanos for Oct 4:
I wonder how high the Liberals can go. I don't think they can make it into majority territory but this is quite the jump.
I wonder how high the Liberals can go. I don't think they can make it into majority territory but this is quite the jump.
Not sure how trustworthy this website is, but it looks like conservatives have a huge advance on NDP and liberals on my riding... sucks. And i bet a lot of people will only vote for conservative here because of the name "Gerard Deltell".
That it is. Soft NDP jumping ships and all.
Not a blame. Probably gonna do the same myself. It is quite nice to think there might be hope after the past couple of days of CPC being on top.
matthewwhatever
Member
Quebec is collapsing for the NDP, though -- even the most favourable polls have seen them go from a 30 point lead to a 10 point lead.
On top of that, it was considered one of the safest Liberal seats in Quebec for the better part of a century (minus a blip in 1988), so the voters are potentially there.
You're feeling giddy, aren't you?
Just a tiny bit.
Louis-St-Laurent? Looking at the riding history, it looks like the Orange Wave put it in the NDP column from the Conservatives by the narrowest of margins, so it wouldn't have taken much for it to flip back.
I talked to a first nations girl a few years ago, and it's a complicated problem.
Part of it is the hands-off dynamic between the federal government and first nations. When the government gives money to a band, the band is entirely responsible for how that money is spent. The band leaders are generally incompetent, and have zero money management or civic planning skills. It's like giving money to an average teenager. They rush out and buy all the things that they want, and soon find out they don't have anything left for what they need.
Another problem is apathy. This girl left for the city because she knew she could attend university for free and have the government pay for rooming. She had drive, and knew it would get her ahead. But most of the people she knew back home thought it was pointless, and stayed home to live the futureless life they've always lived.
Something has to change on both sides of the equation.
UberTag
Member
Let's not get crazy. Liberals haven't won anything yet. Tories are still in minority government territory based on most seat projections and that will likely remain the case even if the Liberal lead on Nanos builds to 5 points or larger.
The money issue isn't so much incompetence but greed. How many times do we see band leaders be well off millionaires while their reservations and tribe are living in horrible conditions. They want the money with no government oversight so they can embezzle it. The tribe complains that they are having a hard time so the government says they can step in and handle the money but the leaders get the ban in an uproar about wanting self governance and just want more money without oversight. I'm all for helping them more but they need oversight, otherwise why should more tax dollars go to one the pockets of the band leaders and let them continue hurting their own people.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
That`s doubtful. Conservative vote is efficient but not that efficient. Especially if the Liberal surge is coming from Ontario, CPC can potentially lose many seats there.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
You can win with far less, despite the fact that people normally don't.
A majority government takes 50%+1 of the seats (or 50%+2 if you expect the speaker to be from your party). You can win a riding with about 34% of the riding's vote. Thus you can win a majority government with about 17% of the vote. A little less if you specifically target the ridings with fewer people and exploit that advantage. Of course, we only get about a 60% turnout. So you can win a majority government with about 10% of the eligible vote. If we had more parties but still FPTP you could actually win with less of the vote.
This is a good article about the efficiency of the Liberal vote and the math behind what seats they could easily get, and which will be more challenging. Obviously crazy stuff can happen in an election (see: NDP Quebec 2011) and this sort of analysis doesn't account for those sort of events.
matthewwhatever
Member
Lisa Raitt probably isn't losing (which isn't the worst thing in the world, since she's not that bad, as Conservatives go), but historically it's bounced back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives. If you want to get rid of Raitt, the Liberals are probably your best bet.
gutter_trash
Banned
that's your riding? man I really feel sorry for your LOL so he goes from being your old MNA to your new MP
as for the Outremont disccussion can be summed up to like this, Outremont is three parts. 1 part hipsters, 1 part Orthodox Jewish, 1 part upper-middle-to-rich class
the hipster part is what supports the NDP while the other two parts are not guaranteed and can go back Liberal like it did for so many years.
When you have 3 major partys + some votes split between Greens and the Bloc, is it that much surprising that you can't really win with nearly 50%?
killer rin
Member
They are playing to the rumor that we gave up Supply Management and the Auto Industry, which is where their base is.
This TPP thing is super fucking sketchy, though. A massive international partnership where the citizens of all countries involved have zero knowledge of what it contains before it's passed.
Exactly. If you follow OpenMedia.ca, you'll know that it's only censorship and remove a lot of rights. On the internet and outside of the internet. Shit is a serious issue for overall freedom.
http://www.thealliancefordemocracy.org/tpp.html
(Disclaimer: Found this site by searching "why no to the tpp" on Google.)
TheRealTalker
Banned
who knows we have two weeks
hopefully people actually start to see through Harpers cover ups and lies and the CPC goes to 3rd place in the polls
even if that ever happens though
strategic voting must still proceed on
hopefully people actually start to see through Harpers cover ups and lies and the CPC goes to 3rd place in the polls
even if that ever happens though
strategic voting must still proceed on
Part of me wants to think this could happen. The other (stronger) part of me says "not happening".
It is complicated. I've talked to a few first nation guys and they're frustrated on how their band manages money. There has to be more education provided on civic planning. Simply pouring more money at first nations isn't working, but how do you fix the problems when they're so reluctant to have the government help them? There has to be better cooperation between bands and the federal government.
TheRealTalker
Banned
matthewwhatever
Member
On the one hand, I could see TPP turning into a good wedge for the NDP.
On the other, their sudden opposition to it may come off as desperate, particularly depending on how enthusiastic Mulcair looked when he endorsed TPP back in August. There's definitely room to win votes over it, but I don't know that he's the guy who can do it.
You know what's super sick?
I live in BC, and my parents are super racist against aboriginals anytime they bring them up.
Talking about how they have it easy and how they have free education and stuff like that.
I then tell them these statistics which should be eye opening and has so many implications that its really fucking scary and they go "whatever".
My mother even starts yelling at me asking "yeah, well did they say about how russians are treated here?!". WTF?! what kind of asinine bullshit must be going on inside these people's heads?
They even got mad that I was calling them out on this bullshit and asked me to apologize and calling me an idiot.
Fuck that. If they want to be fucking racist pricks, so be it!
I didn't say they never lose, I said they usually don't. Ignatieff was also in a more marginal seat than Mulcair is.
Mulcair held this seat pre-Orange Wave, when the NDP were not major players in Quebec. Granted, he had a relatively close call in 2008, but even there he got 40% and he'd have to lose like half his 2011 vote to lose.
A Tory minority government is pretty much impossible based on the party dynamics, unless either the Liberals or NDP completely fold on that, which I don't think either could survive.
I'm not sure TPP is high-profile enough to be made into a wedge issue on this short notice; this election has been going on so long that it's kind of set its parameters by this point. I guess you could counter on the niqab issue, but that's been simmering under the surface for a good while and plays to very strong underlying cultural concerns. There's no equivalent reflexive attitude toward trade deals.
Does anyone think the conservatives can win this election if their vote in BC collapses completely? I noticed in the recent nanos poll that right now their support in BC is at 20%. I know some simulator gives them 2 seats at that support level, but I feel like it will be around 5 or 6 seats at 20%.
The Tory vote in BC is too well-distributed to win that few seats.
It's still a possibility. I don't really see how they can pull anywhere near 10 seats in BC if this downward trend continues for them in that province.
The Conservatives have a great deal of safe seats in BC. Even if their general support plummeted, I think they'd hold onto quite a few of their rural/suburban seats (i.e. Langley)
At the moment I think there's a pretty good chance the Liberals will win back the near Vancouver suburban ridings they held under Paul Martin, but on the other hand the demographics in Vancouver have changed a great deal since then so it's really hard to say.
I think the results in Metro Vancouver will have some surprises. The area is going to be hard to predict if the race really narrows.
The Last Emperor
Member
Please for Sukh Dhaliwal and Randeep Sarai, my fellow Surrey people's.
I don't particularly like them either but seriously, do it
I don't particularly like them either but seriously, do it
I could see some of those safe seats flipping pretty easy if their support drops to a very low level(under 15%)
gutter_trash
Banned
all depends on Ford Nation and the 905
If it looks like the conservatives won't get enough seats in ontario to push them closer to forming a minority government I think BC will be the deciding factor this election.
It's going to be really interesting to see how the dynamics of this race play out in the final two weeks.
The danger for both the NDP and the Liberals in this race was always that if one of them arrived at what looked like a dominant position, the other would get squeezed out as soft voters for that party rushed over to the one that looked more likely to beat the Tories. To some small extent we may be seeing that happening to the NDP, especially if Nanos is correct, but much of their popular vote bleed has actually been occurring not to the Liberals (their rival for the progressive vote in the Anglo-Canadian electorate), but to the BQ and Tories (in the parallel Franco-Canadian electorate where a handful of women who want to wear niqabs have somehow become a major ballot box issue).
The NDP may end up on the losing side in both English and French Canada for distinct but different reasons. Namely, the niqab thing has clobbered their Quebec vote, which has brought down their national numbers to the point where they look, to voters in the other nine provinces, like the third-place party, which would send undecided voters elsewhere to the Liberals.
The danger for both the NDP and the Liberals in this race was always that if one of them arrived at what looked like a dominant position, the other would get squeezed out as soft voters for that party rushed over to the one that looked more likely to beat the Tories. To some small extent we may be seeing that happening to the NDP, especially if Nanos is correct, but much of their popular vote bleed has actually been occurring not to the Liberals (their rival for the progressive vote in the Anglo-Canadian electorate), but to the BQ and Tories (in the parallel Franco-Canadian electorate where a handful of women who want to wear niqabs have somehow become a major ballot box issue).
The NDP may end up on the losing side in both English and French Canada for distinct but different reasons. Namely, the niqab thing has clobbered their Quebec vote, which has brought down their national numbers to the point where they look, to voters in the other nine provinces, like the third-place party, which would send undecided voters elsewhere to the Liberals.
I still think the NDP will crush the other parties in quebec, but not as much as last election. I still think 40+ seats in quebec is in play for the NDP. At least 25-35(maybe more) seats will be in play for the other parties in quebec. I just hope the conservatives collapse enough until election day that the NDP will end up in second place in overall seat count on election day.Also, I wonder if the conservatives are panicking again because it looks like the liberals continue to creep up on them in the polls.At this point I want the liberals to win this election even if the NDP suffers from the liberals rise.
gutter_trash
Banned
the NDP's trouble is 3 different types of battle ground scenarios vs 3 different opponents
a) The Federalist Multicultural Montreal battle grounds vs Liberals
b) the Creditiste-Union Nationale Right Wing nationalist battle grounds vs Conservatives
c) the die-hard souverenist Left nationalist battle grounds vs the Bloc
Everytime the NDP takes on a position that would favor one side, it ends up angering the two others and the NDP does ping pong trying to accommodate all
I'm also hearing now that the brampton rally justin trudeau is at now has around 7000 people present in it.
And it looks like Joyce Bateman won't apologize for the awful comments she made at that winnipeg debate last week.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ontroversial-israel-debate-comments-1.3256202
She just destroyed her chances of being reelected now.
And about that brampton rally I mentioned in this post earlier. Here's what justin trudeau said at the rally today.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-trudeau-brampton-rally-1.3256142
And it looks like Joyce Bateman won't apologize for the awful comments she made at that winnipeg debate last week.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ontroversial-israel-debate-comments-1.3256202
She just destroyed her chances of being reelected now.
And about that brampton rally I mentioned in this post earlier. Here's what justin trudeau said at the rally today.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-trudeau-brampton-rally-1.3256142
Oh, yeah, I don't doubt the NDP will still have the most Quebec seats at the end of this (unless things go really badly for them in the next two weeks). Their problem is just that their Quebec vote was a big chunk of their national popular vote, and with that having declined, they appear much less formidable nationally.
gutter_trash
Banned
i heard about those Joyce Batman comments
this Islrael lovey dovey absolute positions from the Conservatives are really bizarre for a person like me who doesn't care about religion.
Why be so die hard in love with one particular country over any other that has no historical links with Canada? Besides, Bibi Netenyahoo is a dick
this Islrael lovey dovey absolute positions from the Conservatives are really bizarre for a person like me who doesn't care about religion.
Why be so die hard in love with one particular country over any other that has no historical links with Canada? Besides, Bibi Netenyahoo is a dick
I am so skeptical just because I know those places pretty well, and it's so impossible to me to imagine how they could vote for another party. These all true blue conservative places and there have not been demographic changes in these areas that would suggest that anything has changed. It would be an unprecedented shocker for the Conservatives to not win in the East Fraser Valley (ie. Pitt Meadows, Chilliwack, Langley, White Rock etc).
I hadn't seen that Nanos poll with the BC Conservative plunge in support. If the explanation for that massive decrease is that the Conservatives have lost their support with Vancouver's Asian community, as an earlier poll this week suggested, then these East Fraser Valley ridings would not be significantly affected. Neither would the rest of BC. If the issue is a loss of the Asian support that backed the Conservatives in 2011, then we could see the Conservatives losing both Richmond seats, South Vancouver, Fleetwood, and them having no hope in the new seat of Vancouver Granville. Outside of that though I'm not sure how strongly impacted the Conservatives would be.
At some point I should have a look at all the ridings and cobble together some predictions for Metro Vancouver. It'll be fun on election night for when I'm completely wrong.
Sakura
Member
I would be surprised if the Conservatives didn't win at least 5 to 10 seats in BC.
Keep in mind Nanos's poll has a margin of error of almost what, 8 percent? Conservatives will be weak in many of the more urban areas (much of Vancouver) which will bring down the overall provincial level, but they still have many areas where they have strong support in the province.
I wonder how this Pacific Trade deal with effect things. These agreements go way over my head but the whole dairy thing, while I would certainly like lower prices on that stuff, brings up the point of why the fuck would I buy milk/cheese/butter from NEW ZEALAND? It's thousands of miles away from here. We should be striving to buy more regional products than shipping shit from across the fucking world.
I don't think that the TPP would require us to buy milk from New Zealand? It would open up the markets so that we could, but the shipping costs would likely make it prohibitively expensive. Rather, we would probably be buying a lot of milk and cheese from the US, and our dairy farmers would be forced to compete with the US.
All I know about the TPP is that it gives corporations the ability to sue our government for passing legislation that hurts their profits (like environmental laws, for example). That money would be coming out of our taxes. I also know that all the governments participating in the TPP are doing their best to hide the details because they know that we won't like it. It's very unfortunate that this hasn't been a major election issue but hopefully, desperate NDP can do something - I know the Liberals won't. If this deal goes through, I will renounce my citizenship and go to Sweden.
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