GuessMyUserName
Member
Yeap that one's Curtis! Right by the Tims, there were a couple of these there.
I got a 5:30-7 class then though so I won't be able to catch whatever it is
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Yeap that one's Curtis! Right by the Tims, there were a couple of these there.
I got a 5:30-7 class then though so I won't be able to catch whatever it is
TheRealTalker
Banned
Article on Parities Fiscal management and who has the most fiscally responsible record
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/tob...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/tob...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
PumpkinSpice
Banned
On Rabble.
gutter_trash
Banned
that's rabble
matthewwhatever
Member
Aww, Silexx beat me to it. But here's the other graph:
It seems to be Ontario + Quebec, if I'm looking at the numbers correctly.
If the NDP can win those old Bloc seats in rural Quebec, they stay relevant in the next Parliament, assuming there's no CPC majority. If they don't, though...
It's mainly guesswork. Grenier likes to think of himself as a Nate Silver of the North, but the reality is, our polling is nowhere near as sophisticated or as comprehensive as polling in the U.S.
I'm honestly not being snarky -- you probably have stronger opinions about voting reform than anyone else in this forum. And as far as AV goes...I don't know, I don't see those things inherently as a flaw. I'm perfectly fine with all parties hugging the middle and trying to be the preferred second choice. I mean, I'm not crazy about the results sometimes (i.e. 2006, 2008, 2011), but I've always just figured that one of the annoying things about society is that sometimes my preferred point of view won't get its way.
Now, now, she's right: any good Conservative knows that the right time for promising money is immediately before dropping the writ.
Remember, he's also the MP who claimed he'd witnessd electoral fraud firsthand, then when pressed admitted he'd never actually seen it happen, and was just relaying a rumour he'd heard. Real winner, that guy.
I've started checking that site every so often for the last few months, ever since we had an American come into the Canadian PoliGAF thread just before the election was called, and he used Rabble as proof of something. They're...interesting. They've been getting angrier and angrier the further down in the polls the NDP get -- it kind of reminds me of how the Reformers were during the Chretien years, when every point they fell behind in the polls was accompanied by very loud statements of disgust with Canada in general. It stuck with me because someone -- Paul Wells, I think? -- made the point that getting mad at voters for not voting for you is a self-defeating loop, because telling voters that you think they're stupid just makes those voters tune you out, which in turn makes you call them stupid more loudly, which in turn...you get it.
It seems to be Ontario + Quebec, if I'm looking at the numbers correctly.
If the NDP can win those old Bloc seats in rural Quebec, they stay relevant in the next Parliament, assuming there's no CPC majority. If they don't, though...
It's mainly guesswork. Grenier likes to think of himself as a Nate Silver of the North, but the reality is, our polling is nowhere near as sophisticated or as comprehensive as polling in the U.S.
I'm honestly not being snarky -- you probably have stronger opinions about voting reform than anyone else in this forum. And as far as AV goes...I don't know, I don't see those things inherently as a flaw. I'm perfectly fine with all parties hugging the middle and trying to be the preferred second choice. I mean, I'm not crazy about the results sometimes (i.e. 2006, 2008, 2011), but I've always just figured that one of the annoying things about society is that sometimes my preferred point of view won't get its way.
Now, now, she's right: any good Conservative knows that the right time for promising money is immediately before dropping the writ.
Remember, he's also the MP who claimed he'd witnessd electoral fraud firsthand, then when pressed admitted he'd never actually seen it happen, and was just relaying a rumour he'd heard. Real winner, that guy.
I've started checking that site every so often for the last few months, ever since we had an American come into the Canadian PoliGAF thread just before the election was called, and he used Rabble as proof of something. They're...interesting. They've been getting angrier and angrier the further down in the polls the NDP get -- it kind of reminds me of how the Reformers were during the Chretien years, when every point they fell behind in the polls was accompanied by very loud statements of disgust with Canada in general. It stuck with me because someone -- Paul Wells, I think? -- made the point that getting mad at voters for not voting for you is a self-defeating loop, because telling voters that you think they're stupid just makes those voters tune you out, which in turn makes you call them stupid more loudly, which in turn...you get it.
CitizenVectron
Member
Well in Saskatchewan they have done riding polls, so I'd say to use those numbers. In Regina-Lewvan (my riding) for instance, it showed 34CPC, 28NDP, and 19LPC.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
So NDP is officially dead. Gutter must be happy. lol
Simon Belmont
Banned
NDP voters should reward the Libs for going further left than the NDP. What kind of message would it send to the base if the only way you got power is by running a borderline center-right campaign?
firehawk12
Subete no aware
To be fair, neither party is really easily definable any more. At least based on these strange promises and whatnot.
CitizenVectron
Member
Reward them why? All they've done is campaigned to the left, we have yet to see how Trudeau would govern. The Liberals have a history of campaigning to steal NDP votes, but then governing closer to the PCs.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
For all the talk about how non-American we are, Canadians are not that much different from their southern neighbours. We just have fewer guns.
What's sad is that 9/11 was 14 years ago and attitudes haven't changed since.
No, Trudeau is different from the rest!
TheRealTalker
Banned
never heard of them though so are they biased for NDP or something
gutter_trash
Banned
Yeah, it's so right wing to propose public daycare and drug plans.
Kinda tired of this meme.
sounds like a Provincial Platform, not a Federal one
Harper borrows from Pauline Marois on Value Village Charter
Mulcair borrows from Pauline Marois on Day Care
TheRealTalker
Banned
is the vote together and strategic voting using last terms poll numbers
I mean how would you know what currently is a better bet for this election
I mean how would you know what currently is a better bet for this election
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I assume it's based on up to date local polling data, as it were, and historical trends.
UberTag
Member
There are 4 different sites out there with local riding projections. (Probably even more that aren't as mainstream.)
If you're concerned about the legitimacy of one, you can easily cross-reference them against one another to get a better feel for them.
It's like when I'm building a fantasy football lineup, I don't just listen to one person. I seek out all of them and make a decision based on all available data.
And, even then, you're sometimes going to wind up catastrophically wrong.
CitizenVectron
Member
Yes daycare is a provincial jurisdiction...but so is healthcare, and your liberals made it universal as the condition for remaining in power in the 1960s at the demand of the NDP.
Sakura
Member
It looks like they base it on previous election results from what I can tell.
And some of the 'swing ridings' they show are not swing ridings.
UberTag
Member
Everyone's data is a little suspect. That doesn't mean you should outright dismiss it, either. Just consolidate it all together and make an informed decision.
Frankly, I would invite discussion in here on specific ridings and the way they're shifting based on taking data from all of the sites as well as the historical trends.
gutter_trash
Banned
and the numbers could be thrown out the window considering there are new ridings plus old ones redrawn.
Here locally, the redraw does have an affect on some races on different fronts.
Brossard and Laprairie are split into seperate ridings. Brossard gets St-Lambert tacked on to it. Laprairie goes on its own. Losing the Laprairie portion boosts up the minority vote in Brossard that favors Liberals.
Same with Ahuntsinc getting Cartierville tacked onto it
This is where strategic voting breaks down time and again and I'm sick of it.
They people in the party don't inspire that left-leaning feel as much as Trudeau's promises do. Unless he's cleaned house and set up shop with a whole new party under him in recent weeks and I missed the news
matthewwhatever
Member
Another new poll today, this one from Abacus:
Pretty much in line with what everyone else is finding now. If the NDP wants any solace, Abacus has found their slide in Quebec has abated for now; they'e holding steady at 30, with the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc all holding steady within the margin of error too.
This is also interesting:
Trudeau's back in first for the first time since March, while Harper has inched upwards over the last month, too.
There's really not much in the way of local polling data. Leadnow at least commissioned some polling from Environics, but beyond that, it's pretty sparse.
Pretty much in line with what everyone else is finding now. If the NDP wants any solace, Abacus has found their slide in Quebec has abated for now; they'e holding steady at 30, with the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc all holding steady within the margin of error too.
This is also interesting:
Trudeau's back in first for the first time since March, while Harper has inched upwards over the last month, too.
There's really not much in the way of local polling data. Leadnow at least commissioned some polling from Environics, but beyond that, it's pretty sparse.
TheRealTalker
Banned
gutter_trash
Banned
Trudeau has launched a new line of radio ads that are locally targeted.
Just listened to a Montreal radio ad where he addresses the Champlain Bridge, transit to the West-Island (the bubble) and investing on infrastructure.
Just listened to a Montreal radio ad where he addresses the Champlain Bridge, transit to the West-Island (the bubble) and investing on infrastructure.
Sakura
Member
I'm not saying dismiss it, merely that the numbers (from what I've seen at least) aren't of much use, because they don't really reflect what the public opinion may currently be.
In 2011 Liberals were way down, and NDP way up.
In 2015, we may have Liberals way up, but NDP way down.
If you are looking at 2011 data to determine who to vote for, then that data may not be very accurate any more. You may think NDP will be second place in your riding and vote for them, when in reality Liberals ended up being second place and you only contributed to vote splitting.
gutter_trash
Banned
don't forget the redraws and new ridings
Quite the pivot there.
CitizenVectron
Member
Sometimes. But other times historic trends are useful. For example, if a riding has been roughly this for 10 years:
NDP - 40
CPC - 35
LPC - 20
GRN - 5
Would you advise someone to vote NDP or LPC in this election if their goal was to prevent the CPC from winning a seat? If you say to ignore historical info, then a vote for the Greens would be just as smart, correct?
You need polling info to make informed strategic decisions, and in some ridings that info is there (and in others it's not). It's very tough in many Ontario ridings because all 3 parties are within 10-15 points of each other. But in much of the country it's really a 2-party race and has been for 10-20 years, so it's fair to rely on that historical data.
As has been mentioned by others, in some Saskatchewan ridings the Liberals get <5% of the vote in some ridings, so it doesn't make sense to assume they are the contenders this time around when the NDP have always been strong in those ridings, and current polls are still reflecting it.
CitizenVectron
Member
Except that the 10% swing down for the NDP has been in Quebec, while they appear to be holding at their normal levels elsewhere (20% in ON, 25-30% western Canada, etc), while the LPC bump has been in ON and BC, but not much in QC or western Canada. It all depends where you live. Using national numbers is never a good idea when deciding to vote. Use local numbers if possible, and regional if necessary.
NDP are definitely going to end up with at least double the seats(the 30 extra seats this election do help them a bit) the liberals got in 2011 after this election.The NDP are definitely down a lot, but like 6% compared to the 8% or 9% the liberals were down in 2011.The Liberal vote collapsed literally everywhere besides the regions they never existed in before the 2011 election. The NDP are doing fine everywhere and good/okay, but not great in Quebec
matthewwhatever
Member
So now we have NDP candidates in English Canada going rogue: NDP candidate criticizes her party's promise to keep balanced budget
Day care, enacting hateful laws based entirely on fear-mongering and bigotry -- two sides of the same coin, you know?
Day care, enacting hateful laws based entirely on fear-mongering and bigotry -- two sides of the same coin, you know?
CitizenVectron
Member
And they are mostly just down in Quebec. In most of Canada they might even be up a bit compared to 2011 (and will be picking up new seats in western Canada as a result).
Honestly if their current numbers hold, the NDP are still likely to get around 90-100 seats, even with 8% less of the national vote than last time.
UberTag
Member
Historic trends are certainly more reliable and I would defer to them whenever possible... at least in areas where riding borders haven't been drastically reconfigured.
I've got it easy because my local riding has always either gone Liberal or PC. Ditto for any ridings it used to be a part of or that it picked up in 2012. If this seat didn't swing NDP during the Orange Wave, it's certainly not going to happen now. So I have a very clear decision.
Other people aren't so lucky. And if they have questions about which way to go, I would say it doesn't hurt to bring them up here.
Sakura
Member
Yea. I think my riding is a redraw. Not sure how that will be reflected in the results.
For sure. I guess I would just say to use common sense.
Obviously if it has been a strong NDP riding for years then sure.
But if it was a riding in Quebec where in 2011 NDP had 10 points more than Liberals, then maybe that is a bit more muddy.
It is unfortunate we don't have more data/riding polls.
Hey there is still over 10 days left, they may be stable now, but who knows what could happen
I think they could end up anywhere between 75-95 seats after this election unless anything changes.This will depend on the direction the votes goes in BC and Quebec.
Yea. I think my riding is a redraw. Not sure how that will be reflected in the results.
For sure. I guess I would just say to use common sense.
Obviously if it has been a strong NDP riding for years then sure.
But if it was a riding in Quebec where in 2011 NDP had 10 points more than Liberals, then maybe that is a bit more muddy.
It is unfortunate we don't have more data/riding polls.
Hey there is still over 10 days left, they may be stable now, but who knows what could happen
They would have to decline a lot(like another 6%-10%) to get anywhere near the level of support the Liberals got in the last election.Even if they decline to 18% or 19% they will get at least 60-65 seats in this election.
Sakura
Member
Sure. But where were the Liberals 12~ days in the polls before the 2011 election? They were somewhat stable in the mid 20s.
Now I am not saying that the NDP will see similar drops, merely that anything can happen.
Yep you are correct. It still will take a lot of big mistakes for the NDP to get anywhere near the seat count the Liberals got in the 2011 after this election. Now let's wait and see if their poll numbers stabilize or eve increase in the next week or so.
CitizenVectron
Member
Yea. I think my riding is a redraw. Not sure how that will be reflected in the results.
For sure. I guess I would just say to use common sense.
Obviously if it has been a strong NDP riding for years then sure.
But if it was a riding in Quebec where in 2011 NDP had 10 points more than Liberals, then maybe that is a bit more muddy.
It is unfortunate we don't have more data/riding polls.
Hey there is still over 10 days left, they may be stable now, but who knows what could happen
The only way that the NDP wouldn't end up with 50-70 seats is if the Bloc wins 30+ ridings in QC, which would be a disaster.
If the Bloc wins 30+ seats in QC, that'll probably be the most significant political resurgence in Canadian history.
Unless you count the new Conservative Party of Canada from the old one, though people seem to see them as different parties entirely.
The most I expect for the bloc is to probably get slightly more seats than they had at pre-dissolution and then to die completely sometime in the next decade just like all the quebec focused parties in the past.I expect the conservative support to decline in the next decade or so. A big decline(or mega decline) may be in the CPC's future.
Sakura
Member
NDP went from 1 seat in Quebec to 59.
Bloc going from 4 to 30 doesn't seem as crazy to me. (not that the polls support that)
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