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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Referendums in general are incredibly difficult to win and an insanely bad way to drive public policy.

As we saw with the HST and the Transit Tax, people can vote against a referendum for all sorts of reasons completely disconnected from the issue at hand. If the government supports the referendum for example, people may vote against it just because they hate the government, or the political party currently in government.

A friend said that in Canada, people are most likely to vote AGAINST someone or something than FOR it. They don't have the party loyalties that the US has (where Democrats and Republicans are almost dead-even and politicians focus on the undecided/swing votes).

In BC, when the Liberals came to power in 2001, the NDP was all but wiped out (from 39 to 2 seats). HST failed/succeeded because Campbell said during the election they wouldn't implement it, and haircuts got more expensive. Transit tax was a tax and people were upset with Translink (also highly publicized Skytrain break downs at the worst time possible).
 

Divvy

Canadians burned my passport
I know it's hard to find people to run in ridings where they have almost no chance of winning but you can't just let anyone run

I'm curious if there are any Lib/NDP equivalents to the mug pissers/phone rapists/gay converters/terrible science teachers/heritage renouncers the CPC seem to have going for them
 

maharg

idspispopd
If the liberals push up in Edmonton Centre the CPC will win it. I will eat my hat if that's not the case. The NDP has been rising in it every election for the last ten years, but the CPC has maintained a strong presence. Edmonton Centre is a case where strategic voting causes exactly the opposite outcome as intended.

There was a riding poll done a while ago: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.n...al_Ridings_Report_-_Sept_21-15.pdf?1442866702

Please note that 308 is not a polling organization and their predictions are not polls. Anyone expecting the liberal candidate to win Edmonton Centre is fooling themselves, imo.
 
Hey guys, so I was out driving to get some lunch when I saw this..

12115581_10100373390105514_6007368211797414088_n.jpg


I've been living here for so long, never imposed my views and never made any trouble...

but seeing this.... really broke my heart.

Thanks Harper.
 

mo60

Member
I know it's hard to find people to run in ridings where they have almost no chance of winning but you can't just let anyone run

The Edmonton Center candidate actually had a chance to win that riding and still does(but it's very low).. He was actually in the lead for awhile in that riding if I recall.
 

mo60

Member
If the liberals push up in Edmonton Centre the CPC will win it. I will eat my hat if that's not the case. The NDP has been rising in it every election for the last ten years, but the CPC has maintained a strong presence. Edmonton Centre is a case where strategic voting causes exactly the opposite outcome as intended.

What happens if the CPC candidate gets kicked out like that other candidate yesterday? I don't think this candidate will win that riding.
 

UberTag

Member
Hey guys, so I was out driving to get some lunch when I saw this..

12115581_10100373390105514_6007368211797414088_n.jpg


I've been living here for so long, never imposed my views and never made any trouble...

but seeing this.... really broke my heart.

Thanks Harper.
Everyone has come out of the woodwork in Harper's Racist Canada.
Perhaps for his next term he'll start getting firearms back in active circulation so we can be more like his good buddies down south.
 
West Island people stuck in their bubble

Damn, you can tell!? Good eyes!

Everyone has come out of the woodwork in Harper's Racist Canada.
Perhaps for his next term he'll start getting firearms back in active circulation so we can be more like his good buddies down south.

It's a little shocking, up until now I've never seen these open displays of bigotry at least from my experience in Canada...I'm not sure if you follow the news but last week a pregnant woman was attacked because she was wearing a niqab
 

maharg

idspispopd
What happens if the CPC candidate gets kicked out like that other candidate yesterday? I don't think this candidate will win that riding.

Never underestimate the apathy of conservative voters in Alberta.

But besides that, the vote that will turn off is probably *already* planning to vote for someone other than the CPC. This is a somewhat diverse riding, but a *lot* of it is affluent white people who probably agree with it.
 

mo60

Member
Never underestimate the apathy of conservative voters in Alberta.

But besides that, the vote that will turn off is probably *already* planning to vote for someone other than the CPC. This is a somewhat diverse riding, but a *lot* of it is affluent white people who probably agree with it.

I think this will hurt them a bit in that riding and possibly increase the lead the Liberal candidate has on that guy right now.
 

maharg

idspispopd
There is no Liberal lead. Are you treating 308 projections as polls? Because they aren't.

Please note, for reference, that 308 was projecting a liberal win when the riding poll I linked above came out.
 

UberTag

Member
It's a little shocking, up until now I've never seen these open displays of bigotry at least from my experience in Canada...I'm not sure if you follow the news but last week a pregnant woman was attacked because she was wearing a niqab
In Montreal? Yeah, I read about that. Unless there was another pregnant Niqab-wearing Muslim assault I wasn't aware of.

It's unfortunate but our prime minister has fully endorsed a national climate where widespread intolerance is both encouraged and embraced.

There is no Liberal lead. Are you treating 308 projections as polls? Because they aren't.
So the Green party is competitive and could win all the seats and form government then? Gotcha. I wonder if Conservatives go out of their way to actively dismiss riding projections to ensure people are confused as to whether the NDP or Liberal is in the best position in their riding to defeat Harper. If I was a Conservative that's what I'd do.
 

SRG01

Member
If the liberals push up in Edmonton Centre the CPC will win it. I will eat my hat if that's not the case. The NDP has been rising in it every election for the last ten years, but the CPC has maintained a strong presence. Edmonton Centre is a case where strategic voting causes exactly the opposite outcome as intended.

In terms of star power, it's basically the former ECC CEO versus the former head of the AFL. I don't think the Liberal candidate is really known for anything, though that does make him a bit of a dark horse in this race.

Having said all that though, I think a lot will have to do with how well the CPC candidate connects with the voters in Edmonton Centre. I mean, he was the ECC CEO which would definitely help in the Glenora area, but the riding does have a lot of impoverished and working-class people where the NDP can pick up quite a bit of support.

The Edmonton Center candidate actually had a chance to win that riding and still does. He was actually in the lead for awhile in that riding if I recall.

The latest poll I've seen was Sept 21 (a long time ago ugh) from Environics which said that the CPC was leading the NDP by four points in that riding.

In Montreal? Yeah, I read about that. Unless there was another pregnant Niqab-wearing Muslim assault I wasn't aware of.

It's unfortunate but our prime minister has fully endorsed a national climate where widespread intolerance is both encouraged and embraced.

The unfortunate consequence of these racial politics is that some segments of our society are now interpreting this environment as 'open season' for them to express their racial hatred. It's disgusting.

I really liked how Trudeau said it in one of this speeches. These are attacks against our neighbours and people are getting hurt. It has to stop.
 

Silexx

Member
Right it's easier, but it still results in more seats for the CPC, so it's wrong (if the goal is to replace Harper). Plus many people don't like the Liberals, or don't like the NDP.

Uh no, what 'strategic voting' is doing is splitting the seat count rather than the popular votes (which may still be split because of confusing information coming from riding level polling).

What we will have to see is if the anti-Harper voting bloc is large enough to latch on the the leading non-CPC party which can then propel them into the lead.
 

mo60

Member
In terms of star power, it's basically the former ECC CEO versus the former head of the AFL. I don't think the Liberal candidate is really known for anything, though that does make him a bit of a dark horse in this race.

Having said all that though, I think a lot will have to do with how well the CPC candidate connects with the voters in Edmonton Centre. I mean, he was the ECC CEO which would definitely help in the Glenora area, but the riding does have a lot of impoverished and working-class people where the NDP can pick up quite a bit of support.



The latest poll I've seen was Sept 21 (a long time ago ugh) from Environics which said that the CPC was leading the NDP by four points in that riding.



The unfortunate consequence of these racial politics is that some segments of our society are now interpreting this environment as 'open season' for them to express their racial hatred. It's disgusting.

I really liked how Trudeau said it in one of this speeches. These are attacks against our neighbours and people are getting hurt. It has to stop.

I know 308 puts the CPC candidate 5 points behind the liberal candidate right now,but I don't know how trustworthy 308 is.
 
In Montreal? Yeah, I read about that. Unless there was another pregnant Niqab-wearing Muslim assault I wasn't aware of.

It's unfortunate but our prime minister has fully endorsed a national climate where widespread intolerance is both encouraged and embraced.

Awful, I always felt a bit proud that somehow Canadians were above the bullshit...Today I stood corrected, granted this is not representative of the whole country but it still stings though.

...The unfortunate consequence of these racial politics is that some segments of our society are now interpreting this environment as 'open season' for them to express their racial hatred. It's disgusting.

I really liked how Trudeau said it in one of this speeches. These are attacks against our neighbours and people are getting hurt. It has to stop.

Well said by Justin, I hope things calm down and this stops...
 

SRG01

Member
I know 308 puts the CPC candidate 5 points behind the liberal candidate right now,but I don't know how trustworthy 308 is.

308 riding projections have always been a little iffy at best. I mean, given the historical riding data, a Liberal projection is plausible, but it goes against the albeit old polling data for the riding itself.
 
308 riding projections have always been a little iffy at best. I mean, given the historical riding data, a Liberal projection is plausible, but it goes against the albeit old polling data for the riding itself.
you should check out the Toronto Star: The Signal projections LOL
 
What happens if the CPC candidate gets kicked out like that other candidate yesterday? I don't think this candidate will win that riding.
Well, it's too late to take "conservative candidate" off of the ballot, so if he wins the riding, he'll be an independent
 

Azih

Member
I don't even understand how to use votetogether.ca I click my riding and it just shows historical data and asks for money.
 

GG-Duo

Member
I don't even understand how to use votetogether.ca I click my riding and it just shows historical data and asks for money.

Same here. strategicvoting.ca seems better, but the conclusion doesn't match the historical data for my riding.

:-/
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
So the auto sector is getting some corporate welfare to make up for the TPP as well... I guess this is how we're protecting our industry/buying votes now? Sign trade deals and then have tax payers give money to businesses because of how bad they are?
 

Stet

Banned
So the auto sector is getting some corporate welfare to make up for the TPP as well... I guess this is how we're protecting our industry/buying votes now? Sign trade deals and then have tax payers give money to businesses because of how bad they are?

I don't think the auto sector is going to be appeased by it. Losing 20,000 jobs is a massive hit.
 
I don't even understand how to use votetogether.ca I click my riding and it just shows historical data and asks for money.

Yeah, the way they pitched the website was for people from the riding to collectively decide who to vote for... what we got is this, which I think the point is to see the historical outcome and vote for whoever is under or above the CPC's line
 
Harper is using the tried and verified method of scaring the shit out of people and going all in on xenophobia/bigotry to win. Worked in Australia, worked in Israel, worked in the UK, and it looks like it'll work now.

This country is on track to be unrecognizable compared to what it once was. Can't believe people would vote for this piece of shit.
 

Ledhead

Member
Harper is using the tried and verified method of scaring the shit out of people and going all in on xenophobia/bigotry to win. Worked in Australia, worked in Israel, worked in the UK, and it looks like it'll work now.

This country is on track to be unrecognizable compared to what it once was. Can't believe people would vote for this piece of shit.

People who buy into his narrative of fear and paranoia are pathetic. I was reading some comments on the Conservative Party's fb page. Shameful stuff.
 
Harper is using the tried and verified method of scaring the shit out of people and going all in on xenophobia/bigotry to win. Worked in Australia, worked in Israel, worked in the UK, and it looks like it'll work now.

This country is on track to be unrecognizable compared to what it once was. Can't believe people would vote for this piece of shit.

Well, if there is one promise he kept...
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-justin-trudeau-michelle-gagnon-1.3259553

Analysis
Justin Trudeau's rise shows the benefits of being underestimated
Liberal numbers starting to rise in Quebec, too, and could yield crucial seats

hey Gabamafou, Les Desmarais endorse Justin Trudeau

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/la-presse-justin-trudeau-1.3260030

La Presse endorses Justin Trudeau's Liberals
Montreal daily hadn't backed a federal party since the Conservatives in 2006
 
Uh no, what 'strategic voting' is doing is splitting the seat count rather than the popular votes (which may still be split because of confusing information coming from riding level polling).

What we will have to see is if the anti-Harper voting bloc is large enough to latch on the the leading non-CPC party which can then propel them into the lead.

Strategic voting is an entirely local-level issue. You vote for whichever candidate in your riding has a better shot of beating the CPC candidate. That's all there is to it.

So if you tell everyone to vote for one party regardless of their local riding, then you're going to switch a bunch of seats from being NDP leads into CPC leads (where the LPC is in a distant 3rd, like most of the prairies and Quebec). If you want those seats to go Liberal then you'd need the NDP vote to drop to 10% or lower, which is unrealistic. If you could do that, you might as well call for a nationwide vote for the Greens.
 

Silexx

Member
Strategic voting is an entirely local-level issue. You vote for whichever candidate in your riding has a better shot of beating the CPC candidate. That's all there is to it.

So if you tell everyone to vote for one party regardless of their local riding, then you're going to switch a bunch of seats from being NDP leads into CPC leads (where the LPC is in a distant 3rd, like most of the prairies and Quebec). If you want those seats to go Liberal then you'd need the NDP vote to drop to 10% or lower, which is unrealistic. If you could do that, you might as well call for a nationwide vote for the Greens.

And how does one know who is leading? How can we account for shifting intentions during a campaign? Not all ridings are created equal. There are some high profile ridings that I'm sure have reliable polling, but it's not as many as I one would think. It can get complicated to follow it all. Much easier to bandwagon on the leading party and hopefully propel them to more seats than the Conservatives (which is, of course, assuming that that voting bloc that wants to get Harper out is large enough to swing the election).
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
What are the three NDP ridings? Spadina, Danforth and... Rosedale?

And jeez, this is what I thought would happen to the NDP right after they won. Except they couldn't even keep their Quebec base happy, which means they just lose everywhere.
 
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