Can Harper deport any of them?
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Can Harper deport any of them?
User 479360
Banned
I'm not. I'm just confused.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Heh. They're just getting out ahead of that I assume, since someone must have vetted him and let him be their candidate in the first place.
I don't know what you're confused about but I'll try to explain the general situation.
The Conservatives have been in power for 9 years, nearly half of that time with a majority. During that time, there was that big recession in America that we were able to escape relatively unscathed and there is the economic crisis now with the very low price of oil. That low price is bad for Canada because the Conservatives have invested a lot in extracting oil out of Alberta and selling to America. Now that the middle east is handing that oil out like candy, it's not very useful to us anymore and a lot of oil workers in Alberta have lost their jobs. Our dollar is now $0.75 or so which has caused game prices, electronics and other stuff to rise. The Conservatives are known by the general public for low taxes and fiscal responsibility. They are basically saying that we're in a rough patch but as long as we stay the course we will weather the storm. So that is the biggest issue.
On the opposition is ABC (Anybody But Conservatives). This is where most people on this forum fall. During the Conservatives reign of terror, they have killed the long form census and introduced controversial bills like C-24 and C-51. They have also done a very bad job of living up to their reputation of the "fiscally responsible" party with 6 (?) deficits during their tenure. They have been cutting funding for lots of programs like provincial health care transfers (which puts our health care at risk) and have also cut funding for federal science, closing lots of libraries, defunding environmental research and stuff they don't like. They've even put gag orders on federal workers and scientists preventing them from telling the public about their research findings. These things are more behind the scenes so the public is unaware. Oh and the Conservatives have pulled us out of the Kyoto protocol and ruined Canada's reputation abroad. I believe Canada now has one of the worst environmental records among developed nations. The Conservatives have also becoming increasingly racist this election, targeting Muslim women who want to wear the veil and have made immigration much more difficult.
As you can see, the Conservatives have done a ton of damage. This is why the ABC movement is so strong (on the internet). If you want unbiased info, you'll have to sift through news articles and party platforms but I have a feeling that you will come to the same conclusion. ABC. So, in your riding, you must vote Liberal.
matthewwhatever
Member
Both the Liberals and the NDP have vowed to reform the voting system. The NDP doesn't actually have a platform yet (beyond a one-page costing document called "Tom's Plan"), but the Liberal proposal for electoral reform is here. They say that they'll "convene an all-party Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety of reforms, such as ranked ballots, proportional representation, mandatory voting, and online voting.", and it's widely believed that they'd implement ranked ballots. Personally, I'm a fan of it, though I'm sure Azih will be along shortly to explain why it's exactly the same as FPTP.
The Ontario referendum was just for MMP, and it was defeated overwhelmingly.
MyAbsolution
Member
I think the issue was they chose STV. It wasn't a well thought out choice, simple proportional representation is a better sell and easy to explain to the public.
Yeah, the reason people voted against it was because they didn't understand it. And it wasn't their fault they didn't understand it. Most of the people who voted for it probably didn't understand it either.
There were people handing out pamphlets in front of the Vancouver Art Gallery urging people to vote for it that couldn't explain how it worked. Even the website didn't explain how it worked.
The NDP's plan is, afaik, to implement the proposal of the Law Commission of Canada, which produced a very detailed description of what their system would be. Also afaik, this commission was asked to do so by the Liberals while they were in power.
It's really simple to explain why single riding ranked ballots are a bad idea: it just burns strategic voting into the system. Rather than minority voices getting actual representation and compromise being reached in the legislature where it happens in the open, the compromise is done at the ballot box and their voices are denied. My second choice is my second choice for a reason.
I think maybe you are talking about this publication by the Law Commission of Canada from 2004 and the Paul Martin Government... (it is an interesting read):
http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/J31-61-2004E.pdf
The thing is, the Conservative party is anything but fiscally conservative.
Chretien and Martin had fiscally conservative governments.
The "Fuck you I got mine" mentality at it's finest. A lot of very wealthy kids I deal with are super dead set against more immigration (obviously a viewpoint from their parents) when we talk politics despite the fact that their parents in most cases aren't even citizens yet. It's very strange.
gutter_trash
Banned
either Nanos is looking to go out of business with their daily polls or else they are master of polling
Ispsos, Eikos and Abacus seem to contradict Nanos, only on October 19th will we find out who was right or wrong
Léger so far is the only one that matched Nanos' results while all the rest have the Cons in a solid lead
Ispsos, Eikos and Abacus seem to contradict Nanos, only on October 19th will we find out who was right or wrong
Léger so far is the only one that matched Nanos' results while all the rest have the Cons in a solid lead
killer rin
Member
The Ontario referendum is complicated. It was called out of nowhere and barely advertised by anyone other than the pro-FPTP side. Top this with the fact that it was the most complicated version of MMP, with closed lists and regional proportionality instead of total proportionality. Attempts of informing were pretty much put to the last week and by the end no-body even knew there was a referendum, or what it was about other than that they should probably vote 'No'.
That said, if you really want to put it through a Referendum, have the question be a two-parter, or a simple "Do you want Electoral Reform?" "If yes, check the system(s) you would prefer so that our panel can make a more informed decision"
I'm still holding out hope that the last two weeks will see support solidify behind one party (likely the Liberals) who will easily take power. With the seemingly continuing decline of the NDP in the polls, I think we might see many NDP voters turn Liberal if it becomes apparent that the NDP doesn't have a significant chance at becoming the government and if another Harper government seems likely.
Here's the stance of the various parties on Electoral Reform
Greens: Replace FPTP with some kind of PR.
NDP: Replace FPTP with the MMP version of PR (Germany is the most obvious example of it but NZ moved to it from FPTP as did Scotland recently)
Liberals: No more FPTP. We'll study to see what to replace it with. Our idealists want some kind of PR, our power hungry wing, which has the ear of Justin Trudeau, wants Australian style AV tho.
Conservatives: EVERYTHING IS GREAT JUST AS IT IS. FUCK ALL Y'ALL.
And matthew, snark aside, do you have any comment on my criticisms of AV? They're both disproportional winner take all systems and so they won't prevent the crazy scenario where a party that is the first choice of less than 40% of voters can win full majority power to do whatever the hell they want for four years. Like Harper just did. They both distort how people actually vote to make regional parties seem far stronger than they actually are and suppress parties with broad support from across the nation that don't have a concentration of support anywhere like the Greens. They're both shit.
Edit: And I was a volunteer for Fair Vote on the Ontario referendum. I was manning the phones and, seriously, two people called in. Barely anyone knew what the hell the referendum was even about.
Greens: Replace FPTP with some kind of PR.
NDP: Replace FPTP with the MMP version of PR (Germany is the most obvious example of it but NZ moved to it from FPTP as did Scotland recently)
Liberals: No more FPTP. We'll study to see what to replace it with. Our idealists want some kind of PR, our power hungry wing, which has the ear of Justin Trudeau, wants Australian style AV tho.
Conservatives: EVERYTHING IS GREAT JUST AS IT IS. FUCK ALL Y'ALL.
And matthew, snark aside, do you have any comment on my criticisms of AV? They're both disproportional winner take all systems and so they won't prevent the crazy scenario where a party that is the first choice of less than 40% of voters can win full majority power to do whatever the hell they want for four years. Like Harper just did. They both distort how people actually vote to make regional parties seem far stronger than they actually are and suppress parties with broad support from across the nation that don't have a concentration of support anywhere like the Greens. They're both shit.
Edit: And I was a volunteer for Fair Vote on the Ontario referendum. I was manning the phones and, seriously, two people called in. Barely anyone knew what the hell the referendum was even about.
killer rin
Member
Which is depressing, because that failed attempt at a referendum, if you can even call it one, means the province wont see the question talked about for another decade at most. Like seriously, if you are going to buck traditional norms on a referendum, at least make an attempt to half-ass it
Edit: Warning, Buzzfeed + CPAC (stole off reddit, because absurdity)
Conservative Says The Ground Absorbs The Oil From Pipeline Spills ... although here is the Cpac episode it's sourced from
Basically, she's making the insinuation that Oil spills are no problem because Oil is natural, and thus being natural it wont hurt the environment because the ground will just absorb the spills again
I'm curious if all the other polls will follow nanos eventually. Sometimes one poll or model may be right while the others are wrong and eventually the wrong polls and models start following the one that looks like it may be right. We may see something like that happen soon.
Yes. In Ontario, parts of the prairies/Alberta, BC(maybe) and Atlantic Canada, but people should be still voting strategically for the NDP in the areas they are strong in like Quebec.
gutter_trash
Banned
they are the only ones doing dailies, if Nanos ends up being wrong then that means they were wrong every day LOL
You know what's scary about her, this (https://ca.linkedin.com/pub/sabrina-faust-zuniga-phd/61/a30/13b) look at her education and job experience and then try to put together that with this stupid statement of hers.
CitizenVectron
Member
That doesn't make sense though. Take Saskatoon, where the NDP might win 3 seats and the Liberals are far behind (with CPC in 2nd). If half of the NDP voters switched to Liberal, then the CPC would win all 3.
I can say for certain that in SK at least, the LPC is only competitive in one riding (Ralph Goodale, who win will easily), but in all others it's NDP vs CPC, and a vote for the Liberal candidate is basically one for the CPC.
It's a bandwagon effect. The problem with strategic voting is that it's very complicated for people to follow. Riding-level polling is not always sufficient and requires voters to pay constant attention to be sure which horse they need to back.
Much easier to just look at National picture and say 'X party is leading and has the best chance of beating Y, so vote for X'.
NotTheGuyYouKill
Member
Dude's an ass. Was never gonna win anyway.
killer rin
Member
I weep for her students.
"'Science' Teacher".
The Ontario referendum was a joke. It offered us the option of FPTP or MMP, which is barely an improvement. If we had adopted MMP, it would have been years before we moved forward with an actual solution.
Excellent news. With a weak Bloc the Liberals and NDP should be able to easy make a coalition work if the Conservatives win a Minority.
CitizenVectron
Member
Right it's easier, but it still results in more seats for the CPC, so it's wrong (if the goal is to replace Harper). Plus many people don't like the Liberals, or don't like the NDP.
I was listening to The Current this morning, and they said that the Liberals were the current forerunners with momentum, which I was skeptical about (unless of course the recent poll data was incorrect). One thing they touched upon was that the Quebec vote was actually split against Le Bloc and the NDP, so the main beneficiaries was actually the Liberals.
Any comments?
Any comments?
MMP is pretty good man. The details of the proposed system needed more work but the base system itself is just fine.
CitizenVectron
Member
Not true, really. In Montreal it might be, but the NDP are the primarily beneficiaries of the vote split in QC this election.
The Bloc supporters are also the least likely to go vote.
Liberals have almost no chance outside of Montreal.
I seriously have no idea how Quebec will turn out. The CPC vote is concentrated around Quebec City, PLC in Montreal, NDP and Bloc spread out. The NDP might sneak in and hold on to most of its seats despite falling support.
Now let's hope the NDP poll numbers start to go up again in Quebec to weaken the bloc further.I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP did better than their current poll numbers in Quebec right now. 45+ seats is possible, but they will most likely get between 40-45 seats in that province.
gutter_trash
Banned
multiple polls show the Bloc simmering down, like i said, Flash in the Pan
TheRealTalker
Banned
hopefully the Cons and the Niqab thing simmers down
it is all up to the press of they want to let it go and/or not address other more serious matters
Harper is trying to make C-24 an issue now.
Seriously Muslims are like pinatas this election cycle. Bash us and votes come out.
It's especially weird watching CBC and Radio-Can digging their own grave by talking about the niqab non-stop day after day.
I guess the Liberals will now destroy the conservatives in the Edmonton Centre riding because of this.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ce-heritage-over-bill-c-24-concerns-1.3260212
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ce-heritage-over-bill-c-24-concerns-1.3260212
TheRealTalker
Banned
Indeed blame that Australian Marketeer who was hired to make people hate muslims
Trudeau recently said that Harper should stop talking about the Niqab but he doesn't realize that he is just adding more life into that debate
start taking about something else change the view people
Where does the CPC get these people?
Har. I spoke to Mississauga-Streetsville Conservative candidate at the GO station today about C24 and he said and the conversation went
Butt: "Why do they have two citizenships if they're going to live in Canada?"
Me: "I have two citizenships"
Butt: "Well you don't have anything to worry about if you're not a terrorist"
Me: :|
These are the talking point that works on the base and some people on the fence.
Edit: NB The man's name is Brad Butt.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/06/brad-butt-thomas-mulcair-c-24_n_8253688.html
Nah, they're doubling down.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2263755/h...-in-civil-service-ricochets-through-campaign/
gutter_trash
Banned
the joke is there probably isn't any actually employed in the civil service.
Stephen Harper = Pauline Marois
UberTag
Member
That was pretty much expected to be the case anyhow.
Liberals are likely to take that riding.
NDP are likely to take Edmonton Strathcona.
Conservatives should handily take down the rest. (The possible exception might be Edmonton Griesbach. You can make an argument that riding is still competitive.)
That would certainly be a play out of Lynton Crosby's playbook.
The NDP may also take Edmonton Greishbach.
BigJonsson
Member
I know it's hard to find people to run in ridings where they have almost no chance of winning but you can't just let anyone run
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